The Case for Optimism: Rejecting Trump’s Poisonous Pessimism (An Early Articulation of Hopium)

Great win in Alabama last night, Hopium in NBC News, the ridiculous RFK

Friends, happy Wednesday all. Still on vacation, still got some good stuff for you today…..

• Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - Recent posts, pods and video presentations on the 2024 election

• Do More, Worry Less - Join me in supporting Biden-Harris, Ruben Gallego, Anderson Clayton and growing the Hopium community. March 31st is the filing deadline for the quarter - please donate what you can today!!!!!!!

• Upcoming Events - Our Spring calendar is coming together (new registration links available - sign up today!)

• Hopium Building Blocks - This week I’m sharing work that helped inform the creation of Hopium a year ago. The first two posts are:

  • The 50 Year Strategy (2007)

  • Forward or Backward? (2012)

Big Win In Alabama Last Night - We flipped another seat last night, this one in Alabama:

Robert Kennedy Is A Ridiculous Candidate - I will have more to say about him when I return to work next week but watch this video of a recent interview of him on CNN. It’s all you need to know, for it reveals what a dishonest, malevolent ass he is:

Hopium In Sahil Kapur NBC News Story Today - An excerpt from a new major NBC News story:

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg, who is bullish on Biden’s prospects, said “large numbers of voters haven’t checked in” and “some of Biden’s coalition is still wandering,” so surveys show him struggling with young and nonwhite voters. He predicted the polls will improve for Biden by “late spring,” around April or May.

“Our view is — and I sort of share the view of the campaign on this — that the likely scenario is that a chunk of the coalition will come home in the next few months as it becomes clear that it’s Biden-Trump and as the Biden campaign turns on,” Rosenberg said, “and then my expectation is we’ll be up a few points.”

Rosenberg said his optimism is partly due to the thinning GOP case.

“Their basic argument against Biden — much of it has evaporated in the last few months. The economy is strong; it’s not weak. Inflation is down; it’s not up. Violent crime and murder rates are plummeting, not rising. We’re producing more domestic energy of all kinds than ever before — there’s no war on energy,” he said. “And if you take those away … what they were left with was the ‘Biden crime family’ narrative,” which “has been exposed as a farce in recent weeks,” and Biden’s age.

“They had clear advantages on the border. And I think they’ve fumbled that now,” he said, citing the GOP’s rejection of a Biden-backed bipartisan bill to impose stricter border and asylum laws. “I think they’ve given us a chance to get back into a competitive position on the border or even go on offense about that.

“What that leaves the Republicans with is not a lot. They don’t really have obvious places to go after Biden,” Rosenberg said. “And the likelihood of this becoming a referendum on Trump has increased dramatically in my view in the last few weeks.”

Stay focused my friends. Do not get distracted. Remember:

Joe Biden is a good President. The country is better off. The Democratic Party is strong, unified, and winning elections all across the country.

And they have Trump.

In ever way imaginable, when it comes to the 2024 elections, I would much rather be us than them right no1.

The first piece I shared with you on this week of reflection and recharging was from 2007. The second 2012, and this one is from 2017. It really is an early articulation of the what we know today as the world view here at Hopium Chronicles. This essay ran on the NDN site and on Medium, and the arguments and data became the basis of our With Democrats, Things Get Better presentation.

Enjoy all - Simon

The Case for Optimism: Rejecting Trump’s Poisonous Pessimism

By Simon Rosenberg

June 2, 2017

So, imagine if you lived in America at a time when:

· Incomes of everyday people are at an all-time high, have been rising for at least four years now and saw their largest annual increase in recorded US history just a year ago.

· The unemployment rate is 4.3%, about at what economists consider “full employment.” This rate is historically low — over the past 70 years (821 months), the rate has only been lower in 130 of those months or just 16% of this 70 year stretch. A reminder that the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3% during the entire Reagan Presidency.

· More people have health insurance and access to quality care than any time in American history. A recently implemented health care law has materially improved the lives of tens of millions Americans in a very short period of time.

· The US stock market is at an all-time high, and 33% percent higher than any sustained high in US history and between 5 and 10 times higher than where it has been most of last 50 years. So really high.

· The high school graduation rate is the highest ever recorded.

· Violent crime rates are half of what they were a generation ago, and cities across the US are blossoming, seeing growth, investment and people once again living “downtown.”

· Teenage pregnancy rates are plummeting, and now are at all-time low.

· There has not been a foreign fighter terror attack on US soil in 16 years, few American troops are dying overseas and the US faces no true existential threat from a foreign power.

· Due to smart policies and years of investment, the flow of undocumented immigrants into the US has dramatically slowed, seeing no net increase for a decade now.

· The US is taking control of its energy future, seeing a sharp decrease in foreign oil imports and sharp, even historic, increases in the production of renewable energy.

Would that America sound like a good America to you? I think so. And of course this list describes the America of today, early June, 2017. America is not without its problems, of course. Despite our economic success, we are still leaving too many behind. Growing levels of inequality are corrosive to the social fabric and bad for the economy too. We have too much public and private debt. Tribalism, racial strife and social coherence remain daunting challenges. Mass incarceration too. The opioid epidemic is tragic, and needs far more attention and action. Too few people vote in America, and our civic life needs renewal on many fronts…..

For a 70 year old alive today, the unemployment rate has been higher than 4.3% for 59 of her 70 years. Line is current level of unemployment.

But it is the premise of this essay that while America has very real challenges, somehow the positive side of the nation’s balance sheet — and there is a lot there — has been recklessly ignored in our national discourse. It is my contention that contrary to the claims of our President, America hasn’t lost its greatness, and that by many historical measures there has never been a better time in all of America history to be alive. Certainly better than the Great Depression, or when we held millions of slaves in cruel bondage, or when kids worked and didn’t go to school, or before there was a minimum wage or a social safety net, or when little black kids and little white kids couldn’t drink from the same water fountain, or when hundreds of thousands were dying in Vietnam, or a Cold War could lead to nuclear annihilation at any moment? Or when sky high interest rates prevented us from buying homes, or women couldn’t vote or work or pursue their dreams, or when OPEC decided to punish America, forcing us to wait in lines for hours just to buy gas? Or especially, my Republican friends, when Ronald Reagan was President and the unemployment rate never dipped below 5.3?

Incomes recovering after years of stagnation, decline. Note difference of GOP (red) and Democratic (blue) Presidencies.

Which brings us to Trump. So much of what he is doing flows from the argument that America isn’t managing this new age of globalization well but being defeated by it. It is the rationale behind stripping health care from tens of millions, dismantling common sense environmental regulations, and getting out of the Paris climate deal and TPP; behind his harsh new immigration enforcement and criminal justice policies; behind his dancing with dictators and distancing himself from democracies. And of course, the data above suggests that this argument — the entire rationale for Trump’s Presidency — just isn’t true. Not even close. Things are far better than he says, or perhaps, understands.

Dow Jones Average 1900–2017. Today, far far above historic norms.

Our new President is the first in our history to be under investigation for treason while in office. Whether he has in fact betrayed our nation to a hostile foreign power (and I think he did) will be determined soon. But to me the greater betrayal of this remarkable nation and its hundreds of millions of decent, hardworking people is the President’s denigration of our collective accomplishments over the past generation. Despite the many headwinds of the modern world America has made true, substantial progress. We are a better and more prosperous nation than we were a generation ago. Our companies lead the world in just about every possible sector, and the innovation and creativity in our private sector remains the envy of the world. Our military has no near peer, and remains the greatest fighting force ever assembled. We are taking control of our energy future, and making great strides against climate change. We are working through our unique challenges with race and tribalism, and while Trump is an obvious setback we just saw a man of color lead our nation successfully for the first time in history. Millions of new Americans are starting businesses, building families and making their mark. Our universities are the best in the world, and our public schools are getting better. I could go on and on and on.

But the bottom line is by selling us short Trump betrays both the greatness of our country and the goodness of the American people every day of his Presidency.

And this is the key. To defeat Trumpism we must be optimists, patriots, pragmatists now. To defeat the man, we must defeat his fallacious arguments about America and what we have become. While he talks down America, we must talk it up. We should be proud stewards of a great nation, but steely-eyed and resolute about tackling the real challenges that remain. In many ways, even in these nasty early days of Trump, I have never been more proud of my country, more in touch with what it means to be an American. For it remains the greatest country on Earth, the inspiration for so many — and it will reclaim that role in the days after Trump if we can together not just defeat the man, but defeat the dark pessimism his brand of politics has unleashed into America and the rest of the world.

Can we do it? In the words of another who came before, there is no doubt in my mind that “Yes, we can.”