That new Remington poll (with the 8% lead among LV's) is actually a poll of the Nebraska "blue dot" no? Not national? Or is there a different Remington poll that I'm missing? Still: wonderful news!
Well I'm being pummeled online with polls showing her losing PA, AZ and NV, some of these pollsters like Redfin I have never heard of, and one PA poll had trump winning indies by double digits and doing historically well with Latino voters. I think we need to get ready for a flood of shit polling by shaky outfits. I really question some of these results; I have a hard time believing indie voters are going trump by double digits, anywhere, let alone in PA. No one who saw the segments on abortion rights last night, which were widely reported, could possibly be ok with the current situation.
And Trump, after diverting a massive amount of money from the MAGA Republican Party, is leaving GOTV to the likes of ... Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA. What could possibly go wrong? /s
"In the 2nd District U.S. House race between Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha, the poll showed Bacon narrowly leading Vargas, 46%-44%. That result, which is within the margin of error, tracks with the internal polling that both House campaigns have shared in recent months showing each of them with narrow leads."
Hi, new here, dumb question - how do I find/connect with the live subscriber chats during the DNC? - thanks for all you do, Holley (longtime Ruth Ben-Ghiat Lucid subscriber, and co-founder of the Media and Democracy Project here https://mediaanddemocracyproject.substack.com/)
During the convention last night, Janelle Bynum had her ads on during commercial breaks almost all evening. I can imagine it was because members of the Hopium Community helped fund her campaign through their generous donations. It's fantastic to see the impact this community has made on electing strong candidates. Thank you!
"You could feel our speakers last night digging deep and reaching for the heights. They understood the gravity and possibility of the moment, and were trying to do their utmost to meet it."
"There is a powerful sense of invention running through the Democratic Party right now, as if we are all inventing this new thing, together. And that is part of what makes this moment so compelling - we are watching a new, powerful and joyful Democratic Party emerge in front of our eyes, every day."
A small PS to add to everyone’s comments on an absolutely terrific night one of the DNC Convention. I absolutely loved the small but in your face message of Kamala showing up to deliver thanks to Joe Biden wearing a tan suit. Brilliant!
I also note the stark contrast of the diversity demonstrated both behind the podium and in the crowd at the DNC Convention compared to the extreme lack of diversity at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee. The DNC Convention looks like America and the RNC Convention looked like a Klan rally. What a stark and obvious contrast.
Republicans were always looking for something to criticize President Obama for. One of the biggest scandals, in their minds, was when Obama wore a tan suit to a press conference. (I kid you not!) Never mind that Ronald Reagan, too, had worn a tan suit as president.
Just sent a reply to a friend out of state in which I emphasized spreading the word about voting as soon as possible for the Dem ticket, up and down the ballot….. go Dems‼️
Simon, what would we do without you? Your inspiration, motivation, and unrelenting enthusiasm, is contagious! When I’m writing postcards for swing states, sharing info on social media, or talking to neighbors, friends, and strangers about the election (I live in a blue state, but I’m a blue dot in my town) I go back to HC and listen to your words, and my energy & enthusiasm is restored! So thank you! When we fight, We win!! #Hope 🔵🔆
CRITICAL POINT. Many thoughtful people commenting and writing about this but so very abundantly clear and such a relief to see the irrelevance of the pundit intermediaries and Jake Tappers who do a mediocre job of interpreting the reality we all see. Watching DNC on any network is torture as the pundits and I include libs try to make themselves the story/build their brand. On CSPAN you follow the night as it was happening and designed and therefore KNOW MORE! about the actualities of the race. CNN etc don't need to wave the pompoms for us, but they should tell it straight. Go watch Cronkite. And let the thing breathe live.
ABC was much better than NBC - helpful asides or intros without visual intrusion - but sounds like a straight streamer like CSPAN or www.demconvention.com is a great way to go.
Thank you!
"Do more, worry less."
The Kamala Harris campaign's YouTube channel ran a live feed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG6aIR5LvWM
Simon, thank you!
Your post today is surely amongst your best and most inspiring. And that’s saying a lot!
Fresh Hopium and a new column from Heather Cox Richardson – a great way to start the day!
https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/august-19-2024
Fresh ammunition from Remington (Research Group):
Their new poll of NE-02, Nebraska’s Blue Dot, has Kamala Harris up by 8 points among Likely Voters!
(Corrected after Patrick Meighan pointed out error: this was not a national poll.)
Wow!!! Yay!
The bookies at Predict it have her up 11% https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election
That new Remington poll (with the 8% lead among LV's) is actually a poll of the Nebraska "blue dot" no? Not national? Or is there a different Remington poll that I'm missing? Still: wonderful news!
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/20/harris-leads-trump-in-new-nebraska-2nd-district-poll/
My bad! I failed to notice that; my post is now corrected. More coffee!
Well I'm being pummeled online with polls showing her losing PA, AZ and NV, some of these pollsters like Redfin I have never heard of, and one PA poll had trump winning indies by double digits and doing historically well with Latino voters. I think we need to get ready for a flood of shit polling by shaky outfits. I really question some of these results; I have a hard time believing indie voters are going trump by double digits, anywhere, let alone in PA. No one who saw the segments on abortion rights last night, which were widely reported, could possibly be ok with the current situation.
I think it's an attempt to demoralize just like '22
For sure, and the leads they are posting for trump are anemic.
And Trump, after diverting a massive amount of money from the MAGA Republican Party, is leaving GOTV to the likes of ... Charlie Kirk and his Turning Point USA. What could possibly go wrong? /s
So I looked Redfin up and it appears to primarily be a real estate firm. Yet they randomly have political & economic articles. Like this one. Strange.....https://www.redfin.com/news/voter-registration-nevada-arizona-2024/
I guess the Red in Redfin is a tell...I saw that article too.
The only polls I look at are the ones Simon puts in his updates.
Dare I ask where the "other" polls you're getting come from ?
IIRC ( because it was morning and I had dental work ) Keystone, Emerson, and Redfin.
For what it's worth Emerson always has tight polling. Arrrggghhh I'd better let it go. My anxiety is looking for things to worry about again! lol
538 has Harris up on quite a few battlegrounds
IIRC?
Remington also polled Tony Vargas' race:
"In the 2nd District U.S. House race between Republican U.S. Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic State Sen. Tony Vargas of Omaha, the poll showed Bacon narrowly leading Vargas, 46%-44%. That result, which is within the margin of error, tracks with the internal polling that both House campaigns have shared in recent months showing each of them with narrow leads."
https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/20/harris-leads-trump-in-new-nebraska-2nd-district-poll/
Take away the Bacon from the House – upgrade to Vargas!
I second ArcticStones! Simon, you both inspire and were clearly inspired yourself. Much appreciation and many thanks!
I just want to say *thank you* for helping us focus on what is important but practical at all levels.
Hi, new here, dumb question - how do I find/connect with the live subscriber chats during the DNC? - thanks for all you do, Holley (longtime Ruth Ben-Ghiat Lucid subscriber, and co-founder of the Media and Democracy Project here https://mediaanddemocracyproject.substack.com/)
I also have this question!
comments on his late afternoon email to us, - someone correct me if I'm wrong
More like evening/night. It was about 9pm DNC time.
thanks
Me too.
Simon sent an email last night. Subject line was Open Thread - What Do We Think Of Night One Everyone?
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/open-thread-what-do-we-think-of-night?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1223483&post_id=147908439&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=d5cb&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Simon sent an email to Hopium followers last night.
Open Thread - What Do We Think Of Night One Everyone?
https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/open-thread-what-do-we-think-of-night?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1223483&post_id=147908439&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=d5cb&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
call me nitpicky, but I was too busy watching to check my email and see it. ;)
Thanks, glad i'm not the only one. Wish this had been announced in an email. Totally missed it.
During the convention last night, Janelle Bynum had her ads on during commercial breaks almost all evening. I can imagine it was because members of the Hopium Community helped fund her campaign through their generous donations. It's fantastic to see the impact this community has made on electing strong candidates. Thank you!
You are doing great work!
Two outstanding excerpts from your piece:
"You could feel our speakers last night digging deep and reaching for the heights. They understood the gravity and possibility of the moment, and were trying to do their utmost to meet it."
"There is a powerful sense of invention running through the Democratic Party right now, as if we are all inventing this new thing, together. And that is part of what makes this moment so compelling - we are watching a new, powerful and joyful Democratic Party emerge in front of our eyes, every day."
A small PS to add to everyone’s comments on an absolutely terrific night one of the DNC Convention. I absolutely loved the small but in your face message of Kamala showing up to deliver thanks to Joe Biden wearing a tan suit. Brilliant!
I also note the stark contrast of the diversity demonstrated both behind the podium and in the crowd at the DNC Convention compared to the extreme lack of diversity at the RNC Convention in Milwaukee. The DNC Convention looks like America and the RNC Convention looked like a Klan rally. What a stark and obvious contrast.
I am so proud to be a Democrat.
Obama must have been chuckling when he saw Kamala walk onto the stage in her tan suit!
Obama speaks tonight. I am rooting for him to show up and show out in a tan suit.
Or even more striking: a white suffragette suit.
I don’t get the allusion. Tan suit. Please explain.
Republicans were always looking for something to criticize President Obama for. One of the biggest scandals, in their minds, was when Obama wore a tan suit to a press conference. (I kid you not!) Never mind that Ronald Reagan, too, had worn a tan suit as president.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_tan_suit_controversy
https://x.com/ProfMMurray/status/1825703387012153742
https://x.com/ProfMMurray/status/1825705501386281111
https://x.com/Timodc/status/1825703477739221216
Tan suit!! I didn't catch that!! wonderful!
In fairness, the GOP has nominated a POC candidate: a thin-skinned Orange guy.
Just sent a reply to a friend out of state in which I emphasized spreading the word about voting as soon as possible for the Dem ticket, up and down the ballot….. go Dems‼️
Thanks for keeping us all updated... for those who have to watch from home -- SO EXCITING! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Simon, what would we do without you? Your inspiration, motivation, and unrelenting enthusiasm, is contagious! When I’m writing postcards for swing states, sharing info on social media, or talking to neighbors, friends, and strangers about the election (I live in a blue state, but I’m a blue dot in my town) I go back to HC and listen to your words, and my energy & enthusiasm is restored! So thank you! When we fight, We win!! #Hope 🔵🔆
Partner with FT 6 to make a blue tsunami. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
CRITICAL POINT. Many thoughtful people commenting and writing about this but so very abundantly clear and such a relief to see the irrelevance of the pundit intermediaries and Jake Tappers who do a mediocre job of interpreting the reality we all see. Watching DNC on any network is torture as the pundits and I include libs try to make themselves the story/build their brand. On CSPAN you follow the night as it was happening and designed and therefore KNOW MORE! about the actualities of the race. CNN etc don't need to wave the pompoms for us, but they should tell it straight. Go watch Cronkite. And let the thing breathe live.
ABC was much better than NBC - helpful asides or intros without visual intrusion - but sounds like a straight streamer like CSPAN or www.demconvention.com is a great way to go.
Watch Brian Tyler Cohen on his YT channel.
Also, the Kamala Harris campaign's YouTube channel ran a live feed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uG6aIR5LvWM
I watched the DNC livestream on FB. Perfect.
MSNBC has a good panel, too.
Simon, the link to 'in depth post on strategy behind the candidates' is taking me to 'with democrats things get better'
Convention is so dynamic - what a deep bench we have. Jasmine Crockett !!! kilt her a b'ar when she was only three, I'm sure!!
I watched on youtube, no commentary
I watched NPR. No commentary there either.