We have a huge opposition , right at our back door, across this nation, and abroad.
Many factions: extremists, radicals, ignorance, fear, misinformation, lies, climate..no order is less. But...I will never stop encouraging togetherness, have seen this win and been patient amidst discouraging happenings...still carrying that flag.
I believe WE can and hold a hand out to anyone willing ..
Much thanks to those by my side and leaders who stay firm to principles of love . I don’t understand it all, complexities far too many to sort , but I know this is the only way I can and must follow...
Simon, thank you for all the factual information you give to us. I’ll miss the live event tomorrow but never miss following up with the recording. There are days when my hope lags a bit but you always help it to surge!
I worked with adjudicated youth in a long line of ‘helping’ jobs a career in social work. Many of the disenchanted, disenfranchised, abused, and badly parented wanted anarchy . I asked them why , always listening, giving them a chance to rant, relax, defuse...because the system didn’t work for them . The system is not working for FAR TOO many. But what really is confusing is the millionaires who back it. The hurt and the controllers work on a same level mentality from opposite spectrums.
The good guys get little press..Ann Murray sang ‘A Little Good News Today’ song words to listen to.The public loves the blood n guts story, the hype, the loud/crashing/fanfare/fireworks...the Republicans know and use this effectively.
Know your audience wrote Readers Digest ‘How to become a Good Writer’ article.
Few are well educated to read Science Digest, The Atlantic, and good Journalism. Few can afford subscriptions to truthful such as Substack ( why we must share as much as possible) , the Enquirer mentality , the soap opera crowd...they aren’t wealthy or are too busy keeping heads above water.
So flanked on both sides by the against our ideals, truths, facts, formulas..is a population of nay sayers some quietly and some lavishly feeding the wrong ‘dog’.
That’s why WE must vote, push the progress no matter how boring, sell the good stats, WALK THE WALK.
Simon, the right-wing response here in rural VA to Biden's good job numbers is that these are all part-time jobs, people are having to work 2 and 3 jobs just to get by due to inflation, etc.
If you have a quick answer to this, I'd be grateful.
Also, I'm worried about early vote numbers in VA. Not enough women and not enough voters of color. Am I just being a worry-wart? I'm phone banking several hours a day, but worry we may fall short.
This idea that the unemployment rate is low due to people working multiple jobs is just not true. Right now unemployment is historically low, wages have been rising faster than inflation for six months, we have the lowest uninsured rate in American history and inflation is now pretty close to pre-pandemic levels and significantly lower than Europe. Inflation has been a global challenge, fueled by COVID, supply chain problems and Russia and Saudi Arabia increasing oil prices. If folks are mad about high gas prices be mad at Putin and the Saudis not Biden. But having said that gas is now lower today than it was a year ago, and continues to fall.
On economic situation being better under Democratic presidents, I encoiurage you to mention that this is not just true for the past few presidencies but goes back 100 years.
"My biggest concern as a supporter of Israel is that the US is putting its global reputation in the hands of Netanyahu, whose political and strategic failures led us to this challenging moment. He simply cannot be trusted to act responsibly in the coming days, and yet here we are." I agree 100% Netanyahu should resign. Israel needs someone other that a strongman in charge.
Simon, thanks as always for the data, but can you explain why the poll on Biden/Trump/RFK isn't terrifying? From what I can glean, if no one wins the requisite 270 electoral college votes, the US House will choose the President! Please talk about this and how democracy and sanity can win in a 3 candidate race? .
States in the general elections are winner take all. In 2020 Biden won by 4.5 points. Here w/RFK in he's winning by 7, meaning he may actually win by more electoral college votes. We don't have state break outs but this poll is very bad for Trump and very good for us. And a reminder - our electorate is not check in yet, Republicans are. They are having a primary, seeing ads, etc. Once it is clearly Biden-Trump early next year I expect Biden to to pick up 2-3-4 points as our coalition engages. It's why it's okay we are tied or only up a few points now. Finally, the idea that we have to win by 3-4 points to win the electoral college may not be true this time. Rs had a very bad cycle in the 2022 battleground and I think will end losing whatever slight advantage that they had there. I feel good about where we are, but we have a lot of work ahead of us.
Looked at RealClearPolitics today for the first time in a while. Many polls showing Trump with stronger support than I had hoped. How do we talk about so many other polls, besides those you mention, showing Trump with strong results vs Biden? Are polls now simply no longer able to be accurate because traditional old-school polling methods are no longer viable in this polarized hyper-Information MAGA-megaphone age?
Thanks, Simon. I guess I'm not feeling as reassured as perhaps I should when seeing polls that are not in the Swing States being applied to states Biden won by such tiny margins. Listening to the New Republic Stop Trump Summit, I learned that the exit poll data in swing states showed that ~10-12% of Biden's vote came from voters who weren't supporters of Biden or Democratics, but were solely voting against Trump. If those voters are lost to a 3rd party candidate that seems like more than we can afford to lose . Sometime in the future, when Dems are more engaged and we know who will be running, it would be very helpful to hear your analysis specifically on the impact of 3rd party candidates in the few states that will determine the Electoral College results. Rick Wilson's recent comment that it will definitely lead to Trump's reelection is pretty terrifying.
In the meantime, thanks for all you're doing! And we'll keep working to register young voters!
Thank you Simon. Profoundly.
We have a huge opposition , right at our back door, across this nation, and abroad.
Many factions: extremists, radicals, ignorance, fear, misinformation, lies, climate..no order is less. But...I will never stop encouraging togetherness, have seen this win and been patient amidst discouraging happenings...still carrying that flag.
I believe WE can and hold a hand out to anyone willing ..
Much thanks to those by my side and leaders who stay firm to principles of love . I don’t understand it all, complexities far too many to sort , but I know this is the only way I can and must follow...
If only......
💙💙VOTE💙💙
Simon, thank you for all the factual information you give to us. I’ll miss the live event tomorrow but never miss following up with the recording. There are days when my hope lags a bit but you always help it to surge!
Serious question - Why are Republicans backing Russia and opposing Ukraine when Russia is Iran's close ally and Iran is threatening Israel?
Jim Jordan is as pro-Putin as they come.
I worked with adjudicated youth in a long line of ‘helping’ jobs a career in social work. Many of the disenchanted, disenfranchised, abused, and badly parented wanted anarchy . I asked them why , always listening, giving them a chance to rant, relax, defuse...because the system didn’t work for them . The system is not working for FAR TOO many. But what really is confusing is the millionaires who back it. The hurt and the controllers work on a same level mentality from opposite spectrums.
The good guys get little press..Ann Murray sang ‘A Little Good News Today’ song words to listen to.The public loves the blood n guts story, the hype, the loud/crashing/fanfare/fireworks...the Republicans know and use this effectively.
Know your audience wrote Readers Digest ‘How to become a Good Writer’ article.
Few are well educated to read Science Digest, The Atlantic, and good Journalism. Few can afford subscriptions to truthful such as Substack ( why we must share as much as possible) , the Enquirer mentality , the soap opera crowd...they aren’t wealthy or are too busy keeping heads above water.
So flanked on both sides by the against our ideals, truths, facts, formulas..is a population of nay sayers some quietly and some lavishly feeding the wrong ‘dog’.
That’s why WE must vote, push the progress no matter how boring, sell the good stats, WALK THE WALK.
Thanks for an excellent question Wes.🫶
💙💙VOTE, ENCOURAGE THE VOTE💙💙
Simon, the right-wing response here in rural VA to Biden's good job numbers is that these are all part-time jobs, people are having to work 2 and 3 jobs just to get by due to inflation, etc.
If you have a quick answer to this, I'd be grateful.
Also, I'm worried about early vote numbers in VA. Not enough women and not enough voters of color. Am I just being a worry-wart? I'm phone banking several hours a day, but worry we may fall short.
This idea that the unemployment rate is low due to people working multiple jobs is just not true. Right now unemployment is historically low, wages have been rising faster than inflation for six months, we have the lowest uninsured rate in American history and inflation is now pretty close to pre-pandemic levels and significantly lower than Europe. Inflation has been a global challenge, fueled by COVID, supply chain problems and Russia and Saudi Arabia increasing oil prices. If folks are mad about high gas prices be mad at Putin and the Saudis not Biden. But having said that gas is now lower today than it was a year ago, and continues to fall.
Thank you!
On economic situation being better under Democratic presidents, I encoiurage you to mention that this is not just true for the past few presidencies but goes back 100 years.
A reference is Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, Presidents and the U.S. Economy (2015).
Thank you Simon.
"My biggest concern as a supporter of Israel is that the US is putting its global reputation in the hands of Netanyahu, whose political and strategic failures led us to this challenging moment. He simply cannot be trusted to act responsibly in the coming days, and yet here we are." I agree 100% Netanyahu should resign. Israel needs someone other that a strongman in charge.
Simon, thanks as always for the data, but can you explain why the poll on Biden/Trump/RFK isn't terrifying? From what I can glean, if no one wins the requisite 270 electoral college votes, the US House will choose the President! Please talk about this and how democracy and sanity can win in a 3 candidate race? .
States in the general elections are winner take all. In 2020 Biden won by 4.5 points. Here w/RFK in he's winning by 7, meaning he may actually win by more electoral college votes. We don't have state break outs but this poll is very bad for Trump and very good for us. And a reminder - our electorate is not check in yet, Republicans are. They are having a primary, seeing ads, etc. Once it is clearly Biden-Trump early next year I expect Biden to to pick up 2-3-4 points as our coalition engages. It's why it's okay we are tied or only up a few points now. Finally, the idea that we have to win by 3-4 points to win the electoral college may not be true this time. Rs had a very bad cycle in the 2022 battleground and I think will end losing whatever slight advantage that they had there. I feel good about where we are, but we have a lot of work ahead of us.
This is the continuing erosion of MAGA
Looked at RealClearPolitics today for the first time in a while. Many polls showing Trump with stronger support than I had hoped. How do we talk about so many other polls, besides those you mention, showing Trump with strong results vs Biden? Are polls now simply no longer able to be accurate because traditional old-school polling methods are no longer viable in this polarized hyper-Information MAGA-megaphone age?
Thanks, Simon. I guess I'm not feeling as reassured as perhaps I should when seeing polls that are not in the Swing States being applied to states Biden won by such tiny margins. Listening to the New Republic Stop Trump Summit, I learned that the exit poll data in swing states showed that ~10-12% of Biden's vote came from voters who weren't supporters of Biden or Democratics, but were solely voting against Trump. If those voters are lost to a 3rd party candidate that seems like more than we can afford to lose . Sometime in the future, when Dems are more engaged and we know who will be running, it would be very helpful to hear your analysis specifically on the impact of 3rd party candidates in the few states that will determine the Electoral College results. Rick Wilson's recent comment that it will definitely lead to Trump's reelection is pretty terrifying.
In the meantime, thanks for all you're doing! And we'll keep working to register young voters!