I think you listed the reasons we are actually in a better position than we were in in 2016. There has been an effort to address polling mistakes from 2016, 2020, and as Simon and others have pointed out, we've consistently outperformed the polls since Dobbs.
I don't think Hilary was ever in a better position than Kamala is now. It seemed that way but it was not the case.
I think we are more likely to beat the polls than underperform. And we are ahead. Just keep your head down. It's hard for me too, but there are many of us together in this.
Another thought on why this is different from 2016. This time the Democratic campaign, the current administration and of course activists/campaigners are also far more aware of the Russian/foreign interference attempts.
I think the campaign was pretty aware in 2016. Voters were not. I could see it in 2016. The signs were everywhere, even if the details were hidden. Manafort's history was well known. The outlines were not so clear but the fact that the Russians wanted Trump to win was known, and the fact that Trump wanted them to help was also very public.
The Clinton campaign may have been aware, but their response was NOT effective. So many tactical mistakes. I feel that Clinton tried as a candidate to play her best game of chess ( campaigning the way traditional candidates do) without realizing she was in a gladiator pit! And of course, there was Comey, but my point is Clinton's 2016 campaign was not nearly as proactive as they should have been. On top of her baggage, she dropped the ball on numerous occasions. In her defense, no one had run against Trump before, so she had the misfortune of being the guinea pig for a trolling election. Sadly, many voters were equally complacent, cynically dwelling on how they disliked them both.
I would agree with that. I would also say that Hilary had a lot of baggage (a lot of it unfair) and that they were dealing with something utterly unprecedented. But yeah they didn't handle it great. I think it was a challenge that no one had dealt with before, and then as you point out Comey came in like the shithead he is at the very end.
I think female candidates have a built in unfair disadvantage. I think Harris handles it as well or better than anyone I've ever seen. She also hasn't been the target of GOP attacks for ~25 years like Hilary was when she ran. These things are huge advantages we have compared to 2016.
Could not have said it better myself! I'll add that no matter how badly sell out pundits want it to be: this is NOT 2016! No two elections are the same as Simon says. I'll also add that Harris has done everything as a candidate that Clinton didn't. She and her team are taking NOTHING for granted. No federal investigation, no establishment image, no (knock on wood) Comey spoilers! Plus, an entire network of grassroots organizations ( Hopium, Indivisible, Swing Left, Field Team 6, Vote Forward, The Lincoln Project, MSW Media, Ben Wikler, Marc Elias, Crooked Media, amongst others) exist now that didn't 2016 We can all do this!
IMHO, the comparison of HC with Kamala is solely based on sex. The two candidates could not be much farther apart. K is nothing like H and women are a wave unlike any we will have seen in history. 🍊 is weaker and undesirable as any candidate in history, aside from perception, i.e., fake polls!
Absolutely! No Y-chromosome: that's where the similarities end! Harris is proactive, does not take Trump's rabbit hole bait. She knows what she has to do and is (in my opinion) doing it. Does she have extra shit to wade through like Clinton ? Sadly yes. However, I believe she is running through it. For our part, the trick is NOT to be overtaken by the gaslighting, zone flooding shit that is and will continue to be hurled at us. Remember keep calm & campaign on & never let the bastards wear you down !
Maybe in part, but for me the comparison is 1) this is present time and recent history, and 2) both have Trump as an opponent. Trump's been a loser except in 2016. It's only natural to try to compare now to 2016, but as Simon I think rightly points out, this isn't like 2016 for a number of reasons.
In my opinion, things are much more positive now than the situation in 2016. People overall are more alert to the danger Trump poses now (I felt a bit alone in 2016 because I thought he was the most dangerous person I'd ever seen run), and in addition people take him more seriously because he won when no one really believed he would. Trump, while always an ignorant asshole, is literally falling apart and everyone can see it. I seriously doubt he's going to get a lot of late movers to the poll at the level he has in the past.
We also have a candidate who is liked better than Hillary and has less baggage (even though a lot of what Hillary had to fight was unfair). I think overall a lot of lessons have been learned and Harris is running a smarter campaign. I watched video the other day where Mike Madrid talked about how the Harris campaign is reaching out to hispanic voters in a much more effective way than in the recent past. She's also been smart to meet the border/immigration issue head on I think, which the Biden folks had been reluctant to do.
Just look at what Simon and Tom are doing, breaking out the polls into categories of best / most reliable polls, republican polls, etc. being analyzed separately. For example today Simon notes "27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages."
Contact your state DNC representative or call the DNC HQ at (202) 863-8000 or submit your question/concern online at https://democrats.org/contact-us/
Your state's National Committeeman and Committeewoman should be listed on your State Party's website, and you can contact them directly. They were automatic delegates to the convention, and are on that list too, by position and name. I am an elected member of the governing body (State Central Committee) that elects the two DNC members from my state.
LJ, what do you expect the DNC to do? It's like asking how is the DNC and Harris campaign going to stop the Republicans from LYING there faces off!
YOU can promote the facts, share Simon's posts and remind people about the "red mirage" in 2022. I usually keep it simple and point out that pollsters are only contacting people who voted in prior elections, so they totally miss newly registered voters - mostly young people who are far more likely to vote for Harris/Wlaz than Trump/Vance. And then I point them towards Tom Bonier's reports on voter registration data!
In 2016 there was a lot of speculation about the "shy Trump voters" who were going to vote for Trump but wouldn't admit it to the pollsters. Now since the Dobbs decision, it wouldn't surprise me if there are GOP women who won't admit to Pollsters (OR their MAGA husbands) that they are NOT planning to vote for Trump.
We need to dispense with this notion that we are passive observers - we all need to step up and become information warriors as Simon often suggests! He's already providing us with the tools we need to do so.
I agree. I have never seen a Dem.campaign as assertive against the Reps. with creative and energetic ads. All the Dem. candidates have grown teeth and pulled off the gloves. I am proud to be on this team. Maybe a few of their very effective ads to highlight another trick/lie of the RNC? Their marketing team has been great, they are smarter than me. I am hoping they will address this, somehow.
As Simon is so well-connected, I was hoping he might have some insights, he's been giving us such hope for quite awhile, now.
Simon is the only person I trust to assess polling. Years ago, political polling meant something. Today, it takes an expert to sort out credible polls from the junk polls.
Simon is the expert at making sense of political polling.
Confession: I occasionally read Nate Silver’s take on the polls – although that is not something I recommend. As a professional copywriter, I read a lot of good news for our side between the lines of Nate’s increasingly-Republican-tinged analysis and narrative. That takes effort and careful attention to his word choices and hidden assumptions (of which there are alarmingly many). Moreover, such large handfuls of salt are required to consume what Nate writes that overexposure risks being rather unhealthy.
Is that because Nate doesn't want to get caught flat-footed in the (un*)likely (*according to him) case that we win? Set up a plausible-deniability scenario to fall back on?
Carl is on both Twitter and Threads as @realcarlallen. He’s also got a substack at realcarlallen.substack.com where he publishes forecasts and analysis. He’s very much on Team Blue while striving for accuracy over partisanship. I think his work is worth paying attention to since his methods find patterns the other forecasters can’t.
The academic publisher Taylor & Francis has just published Carl’s book on polling and forecasting called The Polls Weren’t Wrong. It’s good reading just to learn about how polls and forecasts work in general. In the book and online, Carl also breaks down where Nate & co. go astray by misreading poll results, misunderstanding what poll error is, failing to account for undecideds, and treating polls as predictions of election results rather than snapshots.
I have a comment about the tragedy of Hurricane Helene. As I read this morning, there is a desperate need for additional funding for both FEMA and the Small Business Administration for recovery efforts over multiple years in the states impacted by this horrific event. Yet, Congress is not scheduled to return until after the election. This is really appalling. President Biden must call a special session of Congress to provide additional funding now. I believe the Biden administration is working over the weekend to pull together the numbers. No excuses should be made. Anyone who balks or votes "no" on additional funding should not be re-elected. No member of the GOP who still supports a convicted felon who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election should be re-elected either.
I heard that Biden said FEMA is in good shape unless another really bad hurricane hits. What I hear about lack of money is coming from the Trump campaign who say the FEMA money has been used for illegal aliens. So I know who I believe.
Currently FEMA is supposed to pay for 75% of damage and recovery, state and local pay the 25%. Project 2025 wants to flip that to just the opposite.
If Trump were elected, if its a blue state good luck. He only paid 1% to California after 2018 wildfires and that was after being encouraged by friends who let him know it affected some in Orange County who are Republicans. I believe he did the same after a hurricane that hit NC in 2017. Only 1%.
“While FEMA has the resources needed for the immediate emergency response phase, at least one other agency does not. Most urgently, the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) disaster loan program will run out of funding in a matter of weeks and well before the Congress is planning to reconvene.”
Jess also lists another action item:Call 📲your legislators to pass funding for Hurricane Helene relief NOW. I’ll again be calling my FAKE Senator Rubio along with Medicare Fraudster Rick Scott and my NOT Freedom Caucus Rep.
Thank you Kathy for your clarification.. Fortunately, I have two great Senators here in CT- Murphy and Blumenthal. I will call their offices. I will also call my Rep. John Larsen. Fortunately, all our current reps here in CT are Dems.
It was actually trump that took money from Fema while he was President. He moved money from the budget to build his wall on the border. He projects so much. Everything he is accusing - he has done. Like when he withheld Fema funds from the California fires because he thought they were all democrats. His aides had to show him there was a big group of republicans in Orange County!
MAGA spreading lies about FEMA ... money used up on immigrants ... no one is coming for them ... dropping fake care packages with fake presidential ballots ... 🍊😵💫 milking millions from proposed aid (him) ...
SImon, thank you for yet another great Hopium post! It’s very encouraging to see the estimated partisan division in the early vote. So far, so good.
I am very fascinated by Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown. Is there anywhere Tom explains in greater detail how he does his modeling? Yes, I realize some of that will be proprietary.
I would also like to know his comparisons, if any, between "Modeled Party" in past elections and the actual party split for the same chunks of voters. How accurate has Tom’s modeling been in the past? Within one percent? Half a percent? One-tenth of a percent?
I was just on FT 6 call. They say 4.5 million new Democrats under the radar via 15 mil texts. These are folks not previously in voters' rolls so don't get political texts or email otherwise.
Daniel, did you just say 4.5 million people have registered as Democrats since the 2022 Midterm Elections? Or that 4.5 million new Democratic-leaning citizens have registered to vote since then?
I don’t suppose Jason said anything about the state-by-state breakdown? Or how much of this has been since Kamala Harris became our candidate? (That’s Linda’s question, see below.)
No. But I posted yesterday how to extract some data using VAT and Van. Depends on the state. But with that data can establish a statistical sample as a basis for extrapolation.
In the beginning of this FT6 recording, its COO says they reg'd 2.3 million Democrats and Independents since 2019 in battleground states and they are aiming for 4.5 M Dems and Inds. this election.
Deborah, thanks for the links. While that’s all very interesting, I don’t see any explanation from Tom about how he does his partisan modeling, nor concrete indication of how accurate his modeling has been in the past.
https://tombonier.medium.com/early-vote-data-shows-young-and-non-white-voter-turnout-surge-a160dc7a9bb7 only says "Modeled Party is based on a proprietary partisanship classification model to determine the likely political affiliation of a voter. This predictive model is trained using survey data and incorporates various data points such as vote history, party affiliation (where available), consumer interests, and demographic information to make a prediction of how likely a person is to align with the Democratic party. Those marked as Modeled Unclear did not fall into a score range where we could make a confident prediction of affiliation"
I just noticed that the database that we party officals can access (DNC VoteBuilder) has TargetSmart data! My score was 96.8, pretty good I think. 98.86 for DNC Dem Party Support. These scores were stored under my name:
First, can I ask for a guide to how the whole postcarding operation works? Otherwise, I phonebanked in Michigan, and plan to phonebank for Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and maybe Tester in Montana if I get an opportunity.
Second, I recently wrote this article (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-and-israels-inflection-point/) for The Times of Israel. Check it out and share it with your friends in Israel, if you can. Unfortunately, Netanyahu is engaging in what is now quite obvious election interference, as Democratic operatives are increasingly saying out loud. We need to find some way to spread the message in the relevant circles.
Many organizations run postcard programs, such as Postcards to Voters. They get addresses from voter rolls and filter for their purposes, then provide the addresses and text to volunteers who pay for postage and sometimes the cards. Look on Mobilize.us
It IS the biggest obstacle, I think. In fact, to my mind, it is the only true obstacle we have. But can it be overcome? Yes. But I say it's high time to put more pressure on Netanyahu across the board.
I’ve been traveling throughout Italy this month and surprised how many EU citizens are holding their breath for this election cycle to go our way. They are very invested and I am inspired by their knowledge and hope. It brought home for me how important it is for our allies that US remain strong, united and sane.
Hi Kristina, It's the same in the UK. Of those I know, ca. 80% would vote Harris/Walz. This is a hugely consequential election for the USA - it is for us too. The UK, EU and wider Europe are watching with barely concealed anxiety. The USA economy is in great shape, under President Biden the continent of Europe has drawn together against tyranny. A few years ago the dream was that the European part of Russia would join the rest of us in promoting freedom, democracy and peace through respect and familiarity. It was Trump and his disgusting treatment of the Ukrainian ambassador and his transactional and money driven agenda, coupled with his worship of dictators, that alarmed so many in Europe. Principles, morality, ethics, justice, right - all alien concepts to Trump. So, we are all praying for a Harris/Walz victory. Best wishes to you.
When we win in 2024, and, yes, I believe we will; I want to see Democrats push a 50 state game plan in 2026. Work to strengthen and expand the coalition we have built for 2024. If we do that, we can force maga into the trash bin of history; where it belongs.
Yes to a return to Howard Dean’s "50-State Strategy"! For starters, Democrats should ALWAYS have a credible candidate in every House, Senate, state legislative, secretary of state, state supreme court, county clerk, elected judgeship and sheriff, and school board seat in every single state.
Kudos to the Florida Democratic Party for putting forward a candidate for every legislative seat in this 2024 election! Going forward, let’s do it in every state!
Could not agree more!! I don't know why Howard Dean's strategy went by the wayside, but look at how TX has become bluer every cycle, and FL is a possible flip...wow. We should take nothing for granted, on any level of gov't. Getting this close to fascism should be a wakeup call that we can never ever again become complacent.
We're really close on the Senate side...I'm not giving up on 2028/32!! And FL...smart money says we just might flip this year, both Senate and Prez!! Hopes up yet tethered still.
IMO we need to provide financial support to grass roots organizations like Run for Something, Leaders We Deserve, the States Project, Every State Blue, Movement Voter Project, etc.
This Deaniac from 2004 could not agree more! Howard was the right guy for the DNC job and his strategy was and is a proven winner. And PS - Contest Every Race is working on this project too!
Library boards are also of crucial importance. I substitute in a public library where the MAGA people got voted in because no one was paying attention. Once the community saw them fire the library's outstanding director, cut the budget, and start making noise about buying books themselves, a group was formed, there was outreach to many legislators, and MAGA was massively booted out!
Downballot matters SO much! Over the years (I'm in my 80's) it has been frustrating to see Dems win at the top, but most if not all the local and regional positions go to Reps.
I don't mean to be snarky, but really? Simon is really busy. I suggest you google this information and/or go to Emerson's site and see if you can find information about their funding.
Last night on MSNBC there was talk of Repubs releasing highly targeted lies in swing districts. All this disinformation about not helping flood victims, using FEMA money for migrants, etc. and now there are signs saying Trump Safety, Kamala Crime. Top that with a woman who asked a question full of lies which Trump amplified in his answer. How do we fight disinformation?
Yes, the polls are tight. Yes its a close competitive election. But when i look at Democrat enthusiasm, when i look at the $$$ being raised, when i look at the numbers of volunteers for Harris, when i look at Republicans who have had it with MAGA, when i see the Democratic ground game infrastructure, I get optimistic. But optimism cannot turn into complacency. So I'm ordering another two hundred postcards. Like Simon noted, Democrats are hungry to get every last possible vote they can. 30 days to go my Hopium peeps, we do the work and we'll get there!!!! Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I mailed my Vote Forward letters this week. First to PA, then a batch to NY, then a batch to my home state of OR. While at the post office putting my batch in the slot, another woman showed up with a grocery bag full of letters. She filled me in on her batches of letter for target states. We exchanged a few words of glee. The resistance is strong. The force is with us. The emperor is a naked orange toddler who does not understand the power of old ladies with books of stamps.
Thank you for the childhood memories. My sisters and I had the job of pasting the stamps in the booklets so that we could get some awesome gift, like a set of fondue forks. I'm hopeful that the Boomer vote goes Kamala. We only came a few points shy in 2020.
Sometimes when I think of all the things we used to do or have that are no longer, I feel like 200 years old! "Books of stamps" just brought me back. Glad to share the memories with a fellow boomer. (Though I'm barely one, born in '63.) I loved stamping those books, though I don't remember what great stuff we got! What I do remember is how I couldn't get the stamps perfectly lined up, which I noticed I tried very hard to do with all these postcards! ;-}
I remember Green Stamps and the Blue Chip Stamps - those little booklets! My mother used to put out two wet, small sponges. Then, we would wet the stamps and fill up the books. Such memories.
Oh, I don't remember the Blue Chip Stamps; wait, I think I did hear about them later...I wonder if they were either after or before my time. You had sponges; that's cool! Oh, I just loved those books! It was such a treasure-hunt game, and as I wrote to Karen, I don't remember any of the goodies we eventually got. I'm sure my mother got something both fun and practical, like a salad dressing shaker! Those Were the Days....🎶
I think that is what they were called - Blue Chip Stamps 😂. I don't remember what we would get either. I do recall that there were green and blue stamps. My mother would look through some some "catalog" and work towards whatever she wanted. I can't recall what she would get either! 😂😂😂😂
News from my suburban neighborhood outside of Philadelphia. While I sit here writing hundreds of postcards, friends attended the local GOTV event with State Rep Melissa Schusterman. Words from my friend just now: "This particular group came on a bus from Manhattan this morning. They are going out all afternoon in pairs with volunteer drivers who know the area. The energy was fabulous!!!!" Shortly before I received this text, I looked out from my postcard writing post and saw teams of doorknockers. We're all in. We are going to do this.
Is the reason the Republicans are investing in these biased polls that when they try to invalidate the election they will point to polls and say a Democratic win is impossible? Otherwise it seems an odd strategy. Getting Republican hopes up for nothing.
This is a New York Times article from about a year and a half ago. Gives great details on how the right aligned poles predicted that red wave that never happened. Also has a couple of mentions from Simon
In my opinion, it's all part of their propaganda to flood the zone with poop. The goal, according to their master pooper Steve Bannon, is to convince people that their is no way to know what is really true. With everyone confused, they take over. Poor Steve is in jail because a jury believed they DID know what was true. Guilty of skipping out on a lawfully issued subpoena.
That's exactly what it is. That and an attempt at suppressing the Vote at psychological level. I repeat both my mottos "keep calm & campaign on" & "never let the bastards wear you down!"
Thank you everyone. The lying-- the fact that lying is just fine these days for half of the population, really had me down. But your comments have brightened my spirits considerably.
It feels so good to put another batch of Vote on Day One postcards in the mail today! I can feel the early vote numbers increasing in our favor by the moment!
Same, it feels great! And the texting to ask people to vote on day one has been encouraging too, a good number of people seem to already know how important it is. And others don't know, but agree to do it after we tell them why it matters!
I think you listed the reasons we are actually in a better position than we were in in 2016. There has been an effort to address polling mistakes from 2016, 2020, and as Simon and others have pointed out, we've consistently outperformed the polls since Dobbs.
I don't think Hilary was ever in a better position than Kamala is now. It seemed that way but it was not the case.
I think we are more likely to beat the polls than underperform. And we are ahead. Just keep your head down. It's hard for me too, but there are many of us together in this.
Another thought on why this is different from 2016. This time the Democratic campaign, the current administration and of course activists/campaigners are also far more aware of the Russian/foreign interference attempts.
I think the campaign was pretty aware in 2016. Voters were not. I could see it in 2016. The signs were everywhere, even if the details were hidden. Manafort's history was well known. The outlines were not so clear but the fact that the Russians wanted Trump to win was known, and the fact that Trump wanted them to help was also very public.
But yeah the voters were not aware of it broadly.
The Clinton campaign may have been aware, but their response was NOT effective. So many tactical mistakes. I feel that Clinton tried as a candidate to play her best game of chess ( campaigning the way traditional candidates do) without realizing she was in a gladiator pit! And of course, there was Comey, but my point is Clinton's 2016 campaign was not nearly as proactive as they should have been. On top of her baggage, she dropped the ball on numerous occasions. In her defense, no one had run against Trump before, so she had the misfortune of being the guinea pig for a trolling election. Sadly, many voters were equally complacent, cynically dwelling on how they disliked them both.
I would agree with that. I would also say that Hilary had a lot of baggage (a lot of it unfair) and that they were dealing with something utterly unprecedented. But yeah they didn't handle it great. I think it was a challenge that no one had dealt with before, and then as you point out Comey came in like the shithead he is at the very end.
I think female candidates have a built in unfair disadvantage. I think Harris handles it as well or better than anyone I've ever seen. She also hasn't been the target of GOP attacks for ~25 years like Hilary was when she ran. These things are huge advantages we have compared to 2016.
Could not have said it better myself! I'll add that no matter how badly sell out pundits want it to be: this is NOT 2016! No two elections are the same as Simon says. I'll also add that Harris has done everything as a candidate that Clinton didn't. She and her team are taking NOTHING for granted. No federal investigation, no establishment image, no (knock on wood) Comey spoilers! Plus, an entire network of grassroots organizations ( Hopium, Indivisible, Swing Left, Field Team 6, Vote Forward, The Lincoln Project, MSW Media, Ben Wikler, Marc Elias, Crooked Media, amongst others) exist now that didn't 2016 We can all do this!
IMHO, the comparison of HC with Kamala is solely based on sex. The two candidates could not be much farther apart. K is nothing like H and women are a wave unlike any we will have seen in history. 🍊 is weaker and undesirable as any candidate in history, aside from perception, i.e., fake polls!
Absolutely! No Y-chromosome: that's where the similarities end! Harris is proactive, does not take Trump's rabbit hole bait. She knows what she has to do and is (in my opinion) doing it. Does she have extra shit to wade through like Clinton ? Sadly yes. However, I believe she is running through it. For our part, the trick is NOT to be overtaken by the gaslighting, zone flooding shit that is and will continue to be hurled at us. Remember keep calm & campaign on & never let the bastards wear you down !
And I hate to say it ... that is politics!!
Not for everyone, and that is okay.
It can get ugly but I think about how good it will be to break this fucker once and for all. I use whatever I can to motivate myself.
Maybe in part, but for me the comparison is 1) this is present time and recent history, and 2) both have Trump as an opponent. Trump's been a loser except in 2016. It's only natural to try to compare now to 2016, but as Simon I think rightly points out, this isn't like 2016 for a number of reasons.
In my opinion, things are much more positive now than the situation in 2016. People overall are more alert to the danger Trump poses now (I felt a bit alone in 2016 because I thought he was the most dangerous person I'd ever seen run), and in addition people take him more seriously because he won when no one really believed he would. Trump, while always an ignorant asshole, is literally falling apart and everyone can see it. I seriously doubt he's going to get a lot of late movers to the poll at the level he has in the past.
We also have a candidate who is liked better than Hillary and has less baggage (even though a lot of what Hillary had to fight was unfair). I think overall a lot of lessons have been learned and Harris is running a smarter campaign. I watched video the other day where Mike Madrid talked about how the Harris campaign is reaching out to hispanic voters in a much more effective way than in the recent past. She's also been smart to meet the border/immigration issue head on I think, which the Biden folks had been reluctant to do.
Just look at what Simon and Tom are doing, breaking out the polls into categories of best / most reliable polls, republican polls, etc. being analyzed separately. For example today Simon notes "27 Republican or right-aligned entities in the polling averages."
Thank you, Deborah. My question is what is Democratic National Committee and the Harris-Walz Campaign doing to counter these polls.
Campaigning very hard, GOTV and voter registration to prove that all those polls are ridiculously wrong.
YES! not distracted by what maga is doing
Contact your state DNC representative or call the DNC HQ at (202) 863-8000 or submit your question/concern online at https://democrats.org/contact-us/
Your state's National Committeeman and Committeewoman should be listed on your State Party's website, and you can contact them directly. They were automatic delegates to the convention, and are on that list too, by position and name. I am an elected member of the governing body (State Central Committee) that elects the two DNC members from my state.
LJ, what do you expect the DNC to do? It's like asking how is the DNC and Harris campaign going to stop the Republicans from LYING there faces off!
YOU can promote the facts, share Simon's posts and remind people about the "red mirage" in 2022. I usually keep it simple and point out that pollsters are only contacting people who voted in prior elections, so they totally miss newly registered voters - mostly young people who are far more likely to vote for Harris/Wlaz than Trump/Vance. And then I point them towards Tom Bonier's reports on voter registration data!
In 2016 there was a lot of speculation about the "shy Trump voters" who were going to vote for Trump but wouldn't admit it to the pollsters. Now since the Dobbs decision, it wouldn't surprise me if there are GOP women who won't admit to Pollsters (OR their MAGA husbands) that they are NOT planning to vote for Trump.
We need to dispense with this notion that we are passive observers - we all need to step up and become information warriors as Simon often suggests! He's already providing us with the tools we need to do so.
I agree. I have never seen a Dem.campaign as assertive against the Reps. with creative and energetic ads. All the Dem. candidates have grown teeth and pulled off the gloves. I am proud to be on this team. Maybe a few of their very effective ads to highlight another trick/lie of the RNC? Their marketing team has been great, they are smarter than me. I am hoping they will address this, somehow.
As Simon is so well-connected, I was hoping he might have some insights, he's been giving us such hope for quite awhile, now.
I like the term "red mirage" -- that really captures what is going on here.
If they capture your attention, their work is a success.
I can't claim credit. I think I borrowed it from Simon! ;-)
Simon is the only person I trust to assess polling. Years ago, political polling meant something. Today, it takes an expert to sort out credible polls from the junk polls.
Simon is the expert at making sense of political polling.
Confession: I occasionally read Nate Silver’s take on the polls – although that is not something I recommend. As a professional copywriter, I read a lot of good news for our side between the lines of Nate’s increasingly-Republican-tinged analysis and narrative. That takes effort and careful attention to his word choices and hidden assumptions (of which there are alarmingly many). Moreover, such large handfuls of salt are required to consume what Nate writes that overexposure risks being rather unhealthy.
Nate Silver had considerably more credibility before entering the orbit of rightwing billionaire Peter Thiel
Uhmm.... I'm pretty sure Simon prefers that we don't mention ns here.
Is that because Nate doesn't want to get caught flat-footed in the (un*)likely (*according to him) case that we win? Set up a plausible-deniability scenario to fall back on?
I also like reading the forecaster Carl Allen.
Carl is on both Twitter and Threads as @realcarlallen. He’s also got a substack at realcarlallen.substack.com where he publishes forecasts and analysis. He’s very much on Team Blue while striving for accuracy over partisanship. I think his work is worth paying attention to since his methods find patterns the other forecasters can’t.
The academic publisher Taylor & Francis has just published Carl’s book on polling and forecasting called The Polls Weren’t Wrong. It’s good reading just to learn about how polls and forecasts work in general. In the book and online, Carl also breaks down where Nate & co. go astray by misreading poll results, misunderstanding what poll error is, failing to account for undecideds, and treating polls as predictions of election results rather than snapshots.
I have a comment about the tragedy of Hurricane Helene. As I read this morning, there is a desperate need for additional funding for both FEMA and the Small Business Administration for recovery efforts over multiple years in the states impacted by this horrific event. Yet, Congress is not scheduled to return until after the election. This is really appalling. President Biden must call a special session of Congress to provide additional funding now. I believe the Biden administration is working over the weekend to pull together the numbers. No excuses should be made. Anyone who balks or votes "no" on additional funding should not be re-elected. No member of the GOP who still supports a convicted felon who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election should be re-elected either.
We wish. We really do.
I heard that Biden said FEMA is in good shape unless another really bad hurricane hits. What I hear about lack of money is coming from the Trump campaign who say the FEMA money has been used for illegal aliens. So I know who I believe.
Currently FEMA is supposed to pay for 75% of damage and recovery, state and local pay the 25%. Project 2025 wants to flip that to just the opposite.
If Trump were elected, if its a blue state good luck. He only paid 1% to California after 2018 wildfires and that was after being encouraged by friends who let him know it affected some in Orange County who are Republicans. I believe he did the same after a hurricane that hit NC in 2017. Only 1%.
From President Biden’s letter to Congress:
“While FEMA has the resources needed for the immediate emergency response phase, at least one other agency does not. Most urgently, the Small Business Administration’s (SBA) disaster loan program will run out of funding in a matter of weeks and well before the Congress is planning to reconvene.”
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/04/letter-to-congress-on-disaster-needs/
Action Items from Jess Craven/Chop Wood,Carry Water:
Spread the Word #1! 📣
Team Harris Walz is looking for endorsements from small businesses.
https://open.substack.com/pub/chopwoodcarrywaterdailyactions/p/chop-wood-carry-water-104-8d0?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
Jess also lists another action item:Call 📲your legislators to pass funding for Hurricane Helene relief NOW. I’ll again be calling my FAKE Senator Rubio along with Medicare Fraudster Rick Scott and my NOT Freedom Caucus Rep.
Thank you Kathy for your clarification.. Fortunately, I have two great Senators here in CT- Murphy and Blumenthal. I will call their offices. I will also call my Rep. John Larsen. Fortunately, all our current reps here in CT are Dems.
It was actually trump that took money from Fema while he was President. He moved money from the budget to build his wall on the border. He projects so much. Everything he is accusing - he has done. Like when he withheld Fema funds from the California fires because he thought they were all democrats. His aides had to show him there was a big group of republicans in Orange County!
Don't forget Covid supplies (i.e., ventilators, masks) were sent first to all red states.
Also, in the central and northern parts of the state - where there WERE many wildfires.
He only sees what immediately pertains to himself.
MAGA spreading lies about FEMA ... money used up on immigrants ... no one is coming for them ... dropping fake care packages with fake presidential ballots ... 🍊😵💫 milking millions from proposed aid (him) ...
When do they actually work?
SImon, thank you for yet another great Hopium post! It’s very encouraging to see the estimated partisan division in the early vote. So far, so good.
I am very fascinated by Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown. Is there anywhere Tom explains in greater detail how he does his modeling? Yes, I realize some of that will be proprietary.
I would also like to know his comparisons, if any, between "Modeled Party" in past elections and the actual party split for the same chunks of voters. How accurate has Tom’s modeling been in the past? Within one percent? Half a percent? One-tenth of a percent?
Tom's Target Early website has more info https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/ and see Tom's other website https://targetsmart.com/how-to-interpret-targetearlys-granular-early-vote-data/
I was just on FT 6 call. They say 4.5 million new Democrats under the radar via 15 mil texts. These are folks not previously in voters' rolls so don't get political texts or email otherwise.
Daniel, did you just say 4.5 million people have registered as Democrats since the 2022 Midterm Elections? Or that 4.5 million new Democratic-leaning citizens have registered to vote since then?
4.5 since last march. According to Jason Berlin.
Registration ending in a number of states but open to Nov. 5 in a few states, so they will be concentrating on them.
Sent 4.5 million texts last week 1.5 today.
That’s incredible! Terrific news!
I don’t suppose Jason said anything about the state-by-state breakdown? Or how much of this has been since Kamala Harris became our candidate? (That’s Linda’s question, see below.)
No. But I posted yesterday how to extract some data using VAT and Van. Depends on the state. But with that data can establish a statistical sample as a basis for extrapolation.
In the beginning of this FT6 recording, its COO says they reg'd 2.3 million Democrats and Independents since 2019 in battleground states and they are aiming for 4.5 M Dems and Inds. this election.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/. Maybe they have hit their goal, as the recording is 4 or 5 days old.
Sorry, I should probably know, but what is FT 6
https://www.fieldteam6.org. One of many important branches in the apparatus that is Democratic grassroots activism.
What is "F T 6?" Or, who are they???
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Deborah, thanks for the links. While that’s all very interesting, I don’t see any explanation from Tom about how he does his partisan modeling, nor concrete indication of how accurate his modeling has been in the past.
He posts frequently on X, but I don't go there.
You could contact Tom by phone 202-470-5100 or online form https://targetsmart.com/contact-us/
NItter gives you access to Tweets without going to X / Xitter. That’s what I use.
https://nitter.poast.org/
https://nitter.poast.org/tbonier/
https://tombonier.medium.com/early-vote-data-shows-young-and-non-white-voter-turnout-surge-a160dc7a9bb7 only says "Modeled Party is based on a proprietary partisanship classification model to determine the likely political affiliation of a voter. This predictive model is trained using survey data and incorporates various data points such as vote history, party affiliation (where available), consumer interests, and demographic information to make a prediction of how likely a person is to align with the Democratic party. Those marked as Modeled Unclear did not fall into a score range where we could make a confident prediction of affiliation"
Thanks again.
I just noticed that the database that we party officals can access (DNC VoteBuilder) has TargetSmart data! My score was 96.8, pretty good I think. 98.86 for DNC Dem Party Support. These scores were stored under my name:
Civis Spanish Language Preference
Clarity Abortion Persuasion
Clarity Choice Support
Clarity Trump Check Persuasion
DNC Dem Party Support
DNC Education - Targeting
DNC GOTV Score
Turnout - Targeting
Targetsmart Enhanced Ideology
DLCC State House Support
DLCC Turnout
DLCC State Senate Support
Civis Senate Support
Civis Partisanship
DNC Volunteer Propensity Overall
Senate Turnout Score
DSCC Senate Support Decile
DSCC Senate Support Score
Hello everyone,
First, can I ask for a guide to how the whole postcarding operation works? Otherwise, I phonebanked in Michigan, and plan to phonebank for Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and maybe Tester in Montana if I get an opportunity.
Second, I recently wrote this article (https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-and-israels-inflection-point/) for The Times of Israel. Check it out and share it with your friends in Israel, if you can. Unfortunately, Netanyahu is engaging in what is now quite obvious election interference, as Democratic operatives are increasingly saying out loud. We need to find some way to spread the message in the relevant circles.
See https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/thursday-nights-with-hopium-help
Simon puts the link to sign up for the next Thursday night session in this daily newsletter.
WinningtheHouse.com also has the mail dates for each set of postcards and other information. Direct link is https://person2person-d15a54383d00.herokuapp.com/
If you have other postcard writing questions email winningthehouse2024@gmail.com
You can buy postcards from Markers for Democracy asking people to Vote on Day 1. (Voting early gets more people to the polls). https://markersfordemocracy.ourproshop.com/
Appreciate it.
Many organizations run postcard programs, such as Postcards to Voters. They get addresses from voter rolls and filter for their purposes, then provide the addresses and text to volunteers who pay for postage and sometimes the cards. Look on Mobilize.us
Appreciate it.
Another one I like is bluewavepostcards. They have a campaign now to send to NC
This war could become Harris biggest obstacle to winning election
It IS the biggest obstacle, I think. In fact, to my mind, it is the only true obstacle we have. But can it be overcome? Yes. But I say it's high time to put more pressure on Netanyahu across the board.
I’ve been traveling throughout Italy this month and surprised how many EU citizens are holding their breath for this election cycle to go our way. They are very invested and I am inspired by their knowledge and hope. It brought home for me how important it is for our allies that US remain strong, united and sane.
Hi Kristina, It's the same in the UK. Of those I know, ca. 80% would vote Harris/Walz. This is a hugely consequential election for the USA - it is for us too. The UK, EU and wider Europe are watching with barely concealed anxiety. The USA economy is in great shape, under President Biden the continent of Europe has drawn together against tyranny. A few years ago the dream was that the European part of Russia would join the rest of us in promoting freedom, democracy and peace through respect and familiarity. It was Trump and his disgusting treatment of the Ukrainian ambassador and his transactional and money driven agenda, coupled with his worship of dictators, that alarmed so many in Europe. Principles, morality, ethics, justice, right - all alien concepts to Trump. So, we are all praying for a Harris/Walz victory. Best wishes to you.
Yes, I have some friends who just got back from London/Paris and they said the same.
When we win in 2024, and, yes, I believe we will; I want to see Democrats push a 50 state game plan in 2026. Work to strengthen and expand the coalition we have built for 2024. If we do that, we can force maga into the trash bin of history; where it belongs.
Sounds optimistic but I love the idea.
Hopium is all about optimism (with a plan) !!
Okay, but I think Hopium also involves some realism.
Simon brings it all.
Yes to a return to Howard Dean’s "50-State Strategy"! For starters, Democrats should ALWAYS have a credible candidate in every House, Senate, state legislative, secretary of state, state supreme court, county clerk, elected judgeship and sheriff, and school board seat in every single state.
Kudos to the Florida Democratic Party for putting forward a candidate for every legislative seat in this 2024 election! Going forward, let’s do it in every state!
Could not agree more!! I don't know why Howard Dean's strategy went by the wayside, but look at how TX has become bluer every cycle, and FL is a possible flip...wow. We should take nothing for granted, on any level of gov't. Getting this close to fascism should be a wakeup call that we can never ever again become complacent.
Man if we could just flip Texas the R’s would be screwed.
We're really close on the Senate side...I'm not giving up on 2028/32!! And FL...smart money says we just might flip this year, both Senate and Prez!! Hopes up yet tethered still.
After the election DNC should go back to selling “Democracy Bonds” to raise money for building party infrastructure in all 50 states.
We need Wiklers, Claytons, and Kleebs in every state, building stronger state parties and helping us do better downballot.
IMO we need to provide financial support to grass roots organizations like Run for Something, Leaders We Deserve, the States Project, Every State Blue, Movement Voter Project, etc.
This Deaniac from 2004 could not agree more! Howard was the right guy for the DNC job and his strategy was and is a proven winner. And PS - Contest Every Race is working on this project too!
Library boards are also of crucial importance. I substitute in a public library where the MAGA people got voted in because no one was paying attention. Once the community saw them fire the library's outstanding director, cut the budget, and start making noise about buying books themselves, a group was formed, there was outreach to many legislators, and MAGA was massively booted out!
Downballot matters SO much! Over the years (I'm in my 80's) it has been frustrating to see Dems win at the top, but most if not all the local and regional positions go to Reps.
THIS!!!!
We don't seem to have a choice given what has been happening in our country.
Simon, why do you count Emerson as a right-aligned polling outfit?
Because they released polls this week with Real Clear Politics. They are taking money from right wing sources.
Thanks for the quick response!
Taking money from right wing sources? Can you provide citations? Please.
I don't mean to be snarky, but really? Simon is really busy. I suggest you google this information and/or go to Emerson's site and see if you can find information about their funding.
“Cure” ballots in Arizona, Nebraska and Pennsylvania!
https://www.mobilize.us/?country=US&tag_ids=21252
Plus this PA event tomorrow:
https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/718650/
Last night on MSNBC there was talk of Repubs releasing highly targeted lies in swing districts. All this disinformation about not helping flood victims, using FEMA money for migrants, etc. and now there are signs saying Trump Safety, Kamala Crime. Top that with a woman who asked a question full of lies which Trump amplified in his answer. How do we fight disinformation?
Yes, the polls are tight. Yes its a close competitive election. But when i look at Democrat enthusiasm, when i look at the $$$ being raised, when i look at the numbers of volunteers for Harris, when i look at Republicans who have had it with MAGA, when i see the Democratic ground game infrastructure, I get optimistic. But optimism cannot turn into complacency. So I'm ordering another two hundred postcards. Like Simon noted, Democrats are hungry to get every last possible vote they can. 30 days to go my Hopium peeps, we do the work and we'll get there!!!! Let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I mailed my Vote Forward letters this week. First to PA, then a batch to NY, then a batch to my home state of OR. While at the post office putting my batch in the slot, another woman showed up with a grocery bag full of letters. She filled me in on her batches of letter for target states. We exchanged a few words of glee. The resistance is strong. The force is with us. The emperor is a naked orange toddler who does not understand the power of old ladies with books of stamps.
The Force is with us – in them, the Farce is strong!
And they're not S&H Green Stamps!!! ;-}
Thank you for the childhood memories. My sisters and I had the job of pasting the stamps in the booklets so that we could get some awesome gift, like a set of fondue forks. I'm hopeful that the Boomer vote goes Kamala. We only came a few points shy in 2020.
I just commented something similar! We used to get so excited when we filled up the books. 😂
Sometimes when I think of all the things we used to do or have that are no longer, I feel like 200 years old! "Books of stamps" just brought me back. Glad to share the memories with a fellow boomer. (Though I'm barely one, born in '63.) I loved stamping those books, though I don't remember what great stuff we got! What I do remember is how I couldn't get the stamps perfectly lined up, which I noticed I tried very hard to do with all these postcards! ;-}
I remember Green Stamps and the Blue Chip Stamps - those little booklets! My mother used to put out two wet, small sponges. Then, we would wet the stamps and fill up the books. Such memories.
Oh, I don't remember the Blue Chip Stamps; wait, I think I did hear about them later...I wonder if they were either after or before my time. You had sponges; that's cool! Oh, I just loved those books! It was such a treasure-hunt game, and as I wrote to Karen, I don't remember any of the goodies we eventually got. I'm sure my mother got something both fun and practical, like a salad dressing shaker! Those Were the Days....🎶
I think that is what they were called - Blue Chip Stamps 😂. I don't remember what we would get either. I do recall that there were green and blue stamps. My mother would look through some some "catalog" and work towards whatever she wanted. I can't recall what she would get either! 😂😂😂😂
WORD. We have kept the USPS afloat during DeJoy reign of error.
News from my suburban neighborhood outside of Philadelphia. While I sit here writing hundreds of postcards, friends attended the local GOTV event with State Rep Melissa Schusterman. Words from my friend just now: "This particular group came on a bus from Manhattan this morning. They are going out all afternoon in pairs with volunteer drivers who know the area. The energy was fabulous!!!!" Shortly before I received this text, I looked out from my postcard writing post and saw teams of doorknockers. We're all in. We are going to do this.
That is awesome, LOVE LOVE LOVE this!
Love it, thank you!
could not love this more!
Is the reason the Republicans are investing in these biased polls that when they try to invalidate the election they will point to polls and say a Democratic win is impossible? Otherwise it seems an odd strategy. Getting Republican hopes up for nothing.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
This is a New York Times article from about a year and a half ago. Gives great details on how the right aligned poles predicted that red wave that never happened. Also has a couple of mentions from Simon
We lost Mandela Barnes due to these Trumpy pollsters, so maddening..
Paywalled.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats
See if this works, different publication, but I think is pretty close to the times article
Excellent! Thank you very much.
In my opinion, it's all part of their propaganda to flood the zone with poop. The goal, according to their master pooper Steve Bannon, is to convince people that their is no way to know what is really true. With everyone confused, they take over. Poor Steve is in jail because a jury believed they DID know what was true. Guilty of skipping out on a lawfully issued subpoena.
That's exactly what it is. That and an attempt at suppressing the Vote at psychological level. I repeat both my mottos "keep calm & campaign on" & "never let the bastards wear you down!"
Thank you everyone. The lying-- the fact that lying is just fine these days for half of the population, really had me down. But your comments have brightened my spirits considerably.
It feels so good to put another batch of Vote on Day One postcards in the mail today! I can feel the early vote numbers increasing in our favor by the moment!
Yeah!!!! That’s what I’m talking about!!
Yes, it's a great feeling!
Same, it feels great! And the texting to ask people to vote on day one has been encouraging too, a good number of people seem to already know how important it is. And others don't know, but agree to do it after we tell them why it matters!
I donated to all!! Thank you Simon for creating this valuable resource for people to donate!!!