The Importance of Winning the Economic Argument This Year
Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
The Importance of Winning the Economic Argument This Year
Some Memorial Day Weekend Homework for the Hopium Community
One of our mantras here is that there are two things we need to do this year to make it more likely we are successful next year - launch a national voter registration drive for young people, and win the big economic argument with MAGA. If interested, my May political briefing goes more in-depth on both of these topics.
Simply, we are now in the midst of this big economic conversation with Republicans that we knew was coming, and it is essential that by the end of the year, we come out on top. For us info warriors, becoming louder on the economy, telling the basic story I try to tell here - with Democrats things get better, with Republicans not so much - is to me our highest narrative priority this year. What is just true is that the last 3 Democratic Presidents have brought sustained growth, lower deficits, American progress; and the last 3 Rs recession, higher deficits, American decline. This is just fact, sky is blue kind of stuff. And nobody knows it, not even most Democrats. We can and need to change that, together, this year.
For if we can over the course of the next year establish this basic contrast, which is so evident in some of my graphs below (feel free to use!), we will make it far more likely we will “Get to 55” and win big in the 2024 elections.
As for the homework, try to read through as much of this material below as you can, follow the links, spend time with the data and arguments. If you haven’t watched my 30-minute presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better, this would be a good time to do it (see below). It provides a deep, in-depth briefing on what has happened with the American economy since the Cold War ended, and makes it very clear America does much better with Democrats in the White House.
Finally, many of you have asked about the polling around the debt ceiling fight. My basic take on current polling is that Rs have a slight advantage on most economic issues despite their terrible performance over the past 34 years. Most Americans are not really focused on politics right now, and on many issues, do not have a deeply informed or strong position, thus the data is bouncing around from poll to poll. When voters do become more informed on the economy, our numbers almost always improve, because the data is on our side and voters do respond to it.
Here are a few charts from today’s Navigator poll on the debt ceiling. What they show is that Americans are basically in the right place here, but are not really paying close attention; Republicans are being given a bit more benefit of the doubt (as expected in any economic debate right now); but when voters are informed about what the Rs are actually proposing they recoil. It’s why we need to be loud here. Because we have a strong argument to make; not enough folks are hearing it; it works when folks do hear it; which is why we just need to keep our heads down and keep working it, together. We can do this.
Onward - Simon
Economic Homework
It’s Time for A Big Rethink on How We Poll and Talk About The Economy
The Biden Presidency Is Working. It’s Why Republicans Are Working So Hard to Blow It Up
The May Jobs Report - The Economy Remains Remarkably Strong, the Republicans Are Trying to Ruin It
With Democrats Things Get Better (May, 2023)
Core Hopium Economic Graphs
The Importance of Winning the Economic Argument This Year
Something to consider with your own circle of friends/family to help spread the light.....
People have become so knee-jerk conditioned to express cynicism and contempt for government and politics after the 40+ year campaign waged by the right wing (albeit worse by far in the past 7) that they almost need a social permission structure from people they trust to even acknowledge something good.
So, I don’t get super partisan right away.... I just bring a positive frame to conversations when politics comes up. I say things like, “I’m pretty optimistic actually. We have such a great track record as a country and we’ve made so many powerful and generational investments the last couple of years that it’s hard for me to not feel excited about what the future holds.”
I find that this softens the ground for anyone open to better information without shoving a lot of data down their throats right away....people want to feel good about the world but they are socially conditioned to think you’re supposed to hate the government and that they suck at everything. I believe one of the best ways to influence and greatest services we can provide to our friends, families, and acquaintances is to simplify normalize feeling good about good things that have been and are being done.
Most of them won’t invest the time to learn the granular details we learn, but they can learn to feel more hopeful and less defeated by interacting with us, and they need a safe space to feel that optimism because we’ve all been programmed to do just the opposite for many years.
Your second chart shows the primary reason why Biden's polling numbers are so poor and the strategy most likely to turn it around and jump start the quest for 55. The President needs to take full advantage of the bully pulpit provided by the Oval Office and the Resolute Desk. The Republicans have nothing to match that setting and when the President goes on live TV to present his call for the House to discharge the debt ceiling removal bill based on the economic successes you present, their already untenable position will become as painful as DeSantis's mess on Twitter last night. If we lose this fight, it will be at least in part because Biden has failed to fill this part of the Presidential role.