The Importance of Winning the Economic Argument This Year
Some Memorial Day Weekend Homework for the Hopium Community
One of our mantras here is that there are two things we need to do this year to make it more likely we are successful next year - launch a national voter registration drive for young people, and win the big economic argument with MAGA. If interested, my May political briefing goes more in-depth on both of these topics.
Simply, we are now in the midst of this big economic conversation with Republicans that we knew was coming, and it is essential that by the end of the year, we come out on top. For us info warriors, becoming louder on the economy, telling the basic story I try to tell here - with Democrats things get better, with Republicans not so much - is to me our highest narrative priority this year. What is just true is that the last 3 Democratic Presidents have brought sustained growth, lower deficits, American progress; and the last 3 Rs recession, higher deficits, American decline. This is just fact, sky is blue kind of stuff. And nobody knows it, not even most Democrats. We can and need to change that, together, this year.
For if we can over the course of the next year establish this basic contrast, which is so evident in some of my graphs below (feel free to use!), we will make it far more likely we will “Get to 55” and win big in the 2024 elections.
As for the homework, try to read through as much of this material below as you can, follow the links, spend time with the data and arguments. If you haven’t watched my 30-minute presentation, With Democrats Things Get Better, this would be a good time to do it (see below). It provides a deep, in-depth briefing on what has happened with the American economy since the Cold War ended, and makes it very clear America does much better with Democrats in the White House.
Finally, many of you have asked about the polling around the debt ceiling fight. My basic take on current polling is that Rs have a slight advantage on most economic issues despite their terrible performance over the past 34 years. Most Americans are not really focused on politics right now, and on many issues, do not have a deeply informed or strong position, thus the data is bouncing around from poll to poll. When voters do become more informed on the economy, our numbers almost always improve, because the data is on our side and voters do respond to it.
Here are a few charts from today’s Navigator poll on the debt ceiling. What they show is that Americans are basically in the right place here, but are not really paying close attention; Republicans are being given a bit more benefit of the doubt (as expected in any economic debate right now); but when voters are informed about what the Rs are actually proposing they recoil. It’s why we need to be loud here. Because we have a strong argument to make; not enough folks are hearing it; it works when folks do hear it; which is why we just need to keep our heads down and keep working it, together. We can do this.
Onward - Simon
Core Hopium Economic Graphs