Something to consider with your own circle of friends/family to help spread the light.....
People have become so knee-jerk conditioned to express cynicism and contempt for government and politics after the 40+ year campaign waged by the right wing (albeit worse by far in the past 7) that they almost need a social permission structure from people they trust to even acknowledge something good.
So, I don’t get super partisan right away.... I just bring a positive frame to conversations when politics comes up. I say things like, “I’m pretty optimistic actually. We have such a great track record as a country and we’ve made so many powerful and generational investments the last couple of years that it’s hard for me to not feel excited about what the future holds.”
I find that this softens the ground for anyone open to better information without shoving a lot of data down their throats right away....people want to feel good about the world but they are socially conditioned to think you’re supposed to hate the government and that they suck at everything. I believe one of the best ways to influence and greatest services we can provide to our friends, families, and acquaintances is to simplify normalize feeling good about good things that have been and are being done.
Most of them won’t invest the time to learn the granular details we learn, but they can learn to feel more hopeful and less defeated by interacting with us, and they need a safe space to feel that optimism because we’ve all been programmed to do just the opposite for many years.
Hi. My kids finished school today, so summer! Politics wise, well hopefully Virginia can save some abortion rights for the south.
Was that you on Simon’s zoom last night in front of like 3 keyboards with the great question?? I bet it was!! (-: Super appreciate your comments and that link to Lawrence was so great!
Haha....yeah that was me. I do live stream shows on YouTube and film song covers and video piano lessons so I have all that set up 24/7 and it’s a much better audio/video experience to join a Zoom Meeting (Sometimes I even get Zoom Event Gigs 😁) from there than just watching on my iPhone. But I laugh at the visual cuz in a setting like last night it looks a little self promoting and ostentatious 😂🎹🎶🎤😎
Your second chart shows the primary reason why Biden's polling numbers are so poor and the strategy most likely to turn it around and jump start the quest for 55. The President needs to take full advantage of the bully pulpit provided by the Oval Office and the Resolute Desk. The Republicans have nothing to match that setting and when the President goes on live TV to present his call for the House to discharge the debt ceiling removal bill based on the economic successes you present, their already untenable position will become as painful as DeSantis's mess on Twitter last night. If we lose this fight, it will be at least in part because Biden has failed to fill this part of the Presidential role.
You could very well be right and I think you have made a great point. However, I saw this the night before last and have been feeling more and more like there is a more sophisticated game of 3D chess being played than I or pretty much anyone else realized. If you haven’t seen it, this is 15 minutes worth watching with an excellent theory of what might be going on here 👍
Thanks Steve. The video is indeed worth watching and I'll add O'Donnell to the list of people who know more about the situation than I do. One hopes that it works out this way because the 14th Amendment idea is a little shaky at best. I much prefer the argument that Larry Tribe and Robert Hockett made in The Hill on the 18th that the debt ceiling is by definition invalid under the 1974 Budget and Impoundment Act. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4009101-biden-can-and-should-ignore-the-gops-debt-suicide-attempt/
I saw that as well and I agree that it appears to be pretty legally solid. My gut tells me Lawrence is correct about what they are attempting to do, but I also truly believe that if it fails because of McCarthy’s fecklessness and MAGA’s grip over the majority of the caucus, that Joe will order Secretary Yellen to pay our bills as per appropriated and dare the Republicans to sue him and equally dare SCOTUS to order the nation into default. If the strategy works we head off default AND shutdown, and if it fails we have good options to avoid or delay a default while having a MUCH stronger hand to play in the public debate as MAGA Rs try to get the already disgraced and unprecedentedly unpopular SCOTUS to order a default and trigger a global economic catastrophe
I yield to your optimism and, after calling my Republican Congressperson to tell her not to take a holiday without the situation being resolved, go into the weekend ready to see what happens.
Well, hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced… the worst is certainly possible… But I find my quality of life is better when I assume things are going to work out for the best, and then deal with occasional disappointments, as opposed to living as though I’m in the disappointment all the time 😁😂
In 2001 budget was in surplus 1.2 percent, when he left office in 2009 it was deficit of 9.76%. Net increase was 11% of gdp over his 8 years. It was far worse than your chart shows. Just sum up the changes since Bush the elder, your chart would have us in a massive surplus so the numbers have to be off.
All of our data is the years of the Administration for good or for ill. So for Bush its 2001 to 2008, Obama 2009-2016, etc. You have to do a cutoff somewhere, and that's how all our econ data works.
True, but the fiscal years run from October to September. Responsibility goes to who was President when the budget passed. So Bush was responsible for the budget of October 2008 to September 2009, which included the TARP bailout. That's why I would assign that year to him. Obama had no control over that budget, his first budget was October 2009 to Sept 2010, and his last would be October 2016 to September 2017. If you assign fiscal 09 to Obama then he doesnt reduce by 6 percent of GDP, it goes from about 3% to about 3%.
Obama passed his stimulus in Feb of 2009, and Biden his in March of 2021 so what you are saying may be conceptually true but is it not what happened in either Administration. I understand the limitations of either approach, but have chosen to keep it apples to apples across all data and measures.
I just want to say that Simon's charts and his presentation are very easy to incorporate into a PowerPoint presentation that you can use whenever you have an audience. I made such a PPT to present to my local Democratic club which was very well received and next I am scheduled to present to the local Democratic Executive Committee. Then, each month when the new numbers come out, you can easily update the slides. We need more eyeballs on this good stuff.
Ok Simon I will do some homework. (-: But I found Dem John Burrows 28 yrs old taking on Kevin McCarthy in CA 20th Nov 2024. He is talking youth voter reg, grassroots, Bakersfield crime rate, CA corporate farming monopolies, against taking big Oil $, phase in solar, and making productive relationships for working people. Interesting interview picks up at 8min in when John warms up.
Assuming the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and the economy goes haywire as a result, let's hope Biden, et. al. take a sledgehammer to the GOP as a foundational narrative into 2024.
This is the kind of subtle anecdotal evidence in addition to our growing momentum with elections that I’m seeing too that make me optimistic about America’s future, as long as we keep our heads down and continue to do the work.....great tweet and worth a minute to read it:
Something to consider with your own circle of friends/family to help spread the light.....
People have become so knee-jerk conditioned to express cynicism and contempt for government and politics after the 40+ year campaign waged by the right wing (albeit worse by far in the past 7) that they almost need a social permission structure from people they trust to even acknowledge something good.
So, I don’t get super partisan right away.... I just bring a positive frame to conversations when politics comes up. I say things like, “I’m pretty optimistic actually. We have such a great track record as a country and we’ve made so many powerful and generational investments the last couple of years that it’s hard for me to not feel excited about what the future holds.”
I find that this softens the ground for anyone open to better information without shoving a lot of data down their throats right away....people want to feel good about the world but they are socially conditioned to think you’re supposed to hate the government and that they suck at everything. I believe one of the best ways to influence and greatest services we can provide to our friends, families, and acquaintances is to simplify normalize feeling good about good things that have been and are being done.
Most of them won’t invest the time to learn the granular details we learn, but they can learn to feel more hopeful and less defeated by interacting with us, and they need a safe space to feel that optimism because we’ve all been programmed to do just the opposite for many years.
Now this is the Echoechoecho chamber I want to be in!!!!!
Awesome comment Steve! Keep those pearls rolling out and fresh reminders..... Love this!
Thanks Bridget! How are things out on the Mid Atlantic Coast?
Hi. My kids finished school today, so summer! Politics wise, well hopefully Virginia can save some abortion rights for the south.
Was that you on Simon’s zoom last night in front of like 3 keyboards with the great question?? I bet it was!! (-: Super appreciate your comments and that link to Lawrence was so great!
Haha....yeah that was me. I do live stream shows on YouTube and film song covers and video piano lessons so I have all that set up 24/7 and it’s a much better audio/video experience to join a Zoom Meeting (Sometimes I even get Zoom Event Gigs 😁) from there than just watching on my iPhone. But I laugh at the visual cuz in a setting like last night it looks a little self promoting and ostentatious 😂🎹🎶🎤😎
Funny... No it looks like you are a music professional which obviously you are! Lol
But maybe some soothing background piano at the next one..... could be great
💙 your comments ! May I copy this with attribution to PianoManSteve ?
Sure....thank you 🙂
Your second chart shows the primary reason why Biden's polling numbers are so poor and the strategy most likely to turn it around and jump start the quest for 55. The President needs to take full advantage of the bully pulpit provided by the Oval Office and the Resolute Desk. The Republicans have nothing to match that setting and when the President goes on live TV to present his call for the House to discharge the debt ceiling removal bill based on the economic successes you present, their already untenable position will become as painful as DeSantis's mess on Twitter last night. If we lose this fight, it will be at least in part because Biden has failed to fill this part of the Presidential role.
You could very well be right and I think you have made a great point. However, I saw this the night before last and have been feeling more and more like there is a more sophisticated game of 3D chess being played than I or pretty much anyone else realized. If you haven’t seen it, this is 15 minutes worth watching with an excellent theory of what might be going on here 👍
https://youtu.be/DZIf_v60VJQ
Thanks Steve. The video is indeed worth watching and I'll add O'Donnell to the list of people who know more about the situation than I do. One hopes that it works out this way because the 14th Amendment idea is a little shaky at best. I much prefer the argument that Larry Tribe and Robert Hockett made in The Hill on the 18th that the debt ceiling is by definition invalid under the 1974 Budget and Impoundment Act. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4009101-biden-can-and-should-ignore-the-gops-debt-suicide-attempt/
I saw that as well and I agree that it appears to be pretty legally solid. My gut tells me Lawrence is correct about what they are attempting to do, but I also truly believe that if it fails because of McCarthy’s fecklessness and MAGA’s grip over the majority of the caucus, that Joe will order Secretary Yellen to pay our bills as per appropriated and dare the Republicans to sue him and equally dare SCOTUS to order the nation into default. If the strategy works we head off default AND shutdown, and if it fails we have good options to avoid or delay a default while having a MUCH stronger hand to play in the public debate as MAGA Rs try to get the already disgraced and unprecedentedly unpopular SCOTUS to order a default and trigger a global economic catastrophe
I yield to your optimism and, after calling my Republican Congressperson to tell her not to take a holiday without the situation being resolved, go into the weekend ready to see what happens.
Well, hopefully my optimism isn’t misplaced… the worst is certainly possible… But I find my quality of life is better when I assume things are going to work out for the best, and then deal with occasional disappointments, as opposed to living as though I’m in the disappointment all the time 😁😂
Ahhhhh YUP! Challenging to do sometimes but our better angels are with us always! Thanks Steve
Yay, Jay Kuo just posted one of your charts and saying we need to challenge the GOP on their economy rhetoric!
Under GWB the deficit rose by 12 percent gdp. Your chart is incorrect.
Produce the data please.
see: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSDFYGDP
In 2001 budget was in surplus 1.2 percent, when he left office in 2009 it was deficit of 9.76%. Net increase was 11% of gdp over his 8 years. It was far worse than your chart shows. Just sum up the changes since Bush the elder, your chart would have us in a massive surplus so the numbers have to be off.
All of our data is the years of the Administration for good or for ill. So for Bush its 2001 to 2008, Obama 2009-2016, etc. You have to do a cutoff somewhere, and that's how all our econ data works.
True, but the fiscal years run from October to September. Responsibility goes to who was President when the budget passed. So Bush was responsible for the budget of October 2008 to September 2009, which included the TARP bailout. That's why I would assign that year to him. Obama had no control over that budget, his first budget was October 2009 to Sept 2010, and his last would be October 2016 to September 2017. If you assign fiscal 09 to Obama then he doesnt reduce by 6 percent of GDP, it goes from about 3% to about 3%.
Obama passed his stimulus in Feb of 2009, and Biden his in March of 2021 so what you are saying may be conceptually true but is it not what happened in either Administration. I understand the limitations of either approach, but have chosen to keep it apples to apples across all data and measures.
I just want to say that Simon's charts and his presentation are very easy to incorporate into a PowerPoint presentation that you can use whenever you have an audience. I made such a PPT to present to my local Democratic club which was very well received and next I am scheduled to present to the local Democratic Executive Committee. Then, each month when the new numbers come out, you can easily update the slides. We need more eyeballs on this good stuff.
Ok Simon I will do some homework. (-: But I found Dem John Burrows 28 yrs old taking on Kevin McCarthy in CA 20th Nov 2024. He is talking youth voter reg, grassroots, Bakersfield crime rate, CA corporate farming monopolies, against taking big Oil $, phase in solar, and making productive relationships for working people. Interesting interview picks up at 8min in when John warms up.
https://youtu.be/d8OKl93JJwE
https://www.burrowsforcongress.com
Peace and share Pro-dem family
Assuming the House GOP refuses to raise the debt ceiling and the economy goes haywire as a result, let's hope Biden, et. al. take a sledgehammer to the GOP as a foundational narrative into 2024.
This is the kind of subtle anecdotal evidence in addition to our growing momentum with elections that I’m seeing too that make me optimistic about America’s future, as long as we keep our heads down and continue to do the work.....great tweet and worth a minute to read it:
https://twitter.com/thejackhopkins/status/1661801969890066437?s=46