Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
The Return of the GOP's Economic Wrecking Ball, Get to 55, The End of Title 42, Crunch Time in Jax
The Monday Newsletter/With Dems Tuesday at 1pm EST
Happy Monday all. It’s shaping up to be a big week in US politics - on Tuesday the President convenes Congressional leaders to talk an economic and fiscal path forward; on Wednesday, we will get new inflation numbers and CNN hosts The Donald; on Thursday, Title 42, the emergency powers used at the border over the past several years, ends; and there will be more news from the various legal actions against the former guy, extremist Republicans will continue to fight common sense gun laws despite unceasing carnage and perhaps we will get more outrageous revelations from our corrupt Supreme Court. It’s a big week.
The Big Economic Debate Is Here, Rs Once Again Acting as An Economic Wrecking Ball - As we discuss in a new analysis of yet another strong jobs report, the last 3 Democratic Presidents have brought growth, lower deficits, American progress; the last 3 Republican Presidents have brought recession, higher deficits, American decline. Republicans have for some time now been an economic and fiscal wrecking ball when in power, and we are seeing the return of that wrecking ball this year in Washington. As The Economist wrote last week (see below) the GOP are taking us either to savage cuts in government programs, or default, “either outcome would be devastating for global markets.”
This ongoing MAGA threat to purposefully bring substantial economic harm to the country is yet another manifestation of the escalating extremism that has overtaken the GOP. No party in our history has threatened to do what Kevin McCarthy is doing because it is so dangerous. Here you can see a video of then-President Trump saying “I can’t imagine anyone ever even thinking of using the debt ceiling as a negotiating wedge” -
For months I’ve talked here at Hopium about the critical need for Democrats to win the big economic arguments with the Rs this year. To me it’s our highest narrative priority now. To help muscle up and get louder on the economy and Biden’s strong track record, see
my new analysis of the monthly jobs report
Rob Shapiro’s new Washington Monthly essay on GOP recklessness
my new With Democrats Things Get Better this month
I don’t know what is going to happen here, but I do now that we have to keep challenging the red wavy impression that the GOP is good for the economy or fiscally responsible - neither has been true for a long time, and we need to be aggressive in making this case, together, in the days ahead.
Get to 55, Expanding Our Coalition - The Washington Post has a terrific new article, New data shows how little the electorate looks like the population, which makes the case, powerfully, for the national voter registration drive I’ve been advocating.
The 2022 midterm elections did not go the way the Republican Party expected. Historical patterns suggested that the party would accrue a hefty majority in the House and regain control of the Senate. Those things didn’t happen for a variety of reasons.
But the party can take solace in one thing: The results would probably have been quite a bit worse if the electorate actually looked like the U.S. population.
It then shares this chart:
We have an opportunity to go big in 2024 due to their extremism, to Get to 55, and seize rhetorical, geographic and demographic real estate they’ve abandoned. Help me in making this case to our electeds and party leaders. So much is possible for us now - as we saw in the battlegrounds in 2022, and we just saw in Wisconsin.
New Polling on Immigration and the Border - With the ending of Title 42 this week, border and immigration issues will once again be front and center in our politics. I found this new memo from the Global Strategy Group and others helpful. It reminds us that like with the economy, there is room for us to grow, improve if we lean in, go on offense and make our case:
To conclude, battleground state voters strongly prefer balance – that includes both border security and humane solutions to address the situation with Dreamers and the undocumented – when compared to just enforcement-only or security-only approaches. If Democrats lean in on popular solutions, including many already advanced by the Biden administration, they can win the debate.
More on this important conversation in the coming weeks, and the issue of immigration is central to my new With Democrats Things Get Better presentation I hope you will watch this month.
Final Week of Early Voting in Jacksonville for Donna Deegan - We are now in the final week of early voting in Jacksonville, and the election is likely to won or lost this week. To learn more about this important election, see my interview with our great candidate, Donna Deegan; and visit her site to sign up for a shift of calls or texts. If Democrats show up she will win, and we will reclaim this seat.
Folks often ask me - what is the road back in Florida? It’s winning elections like this one. This is the road back. Let’s do this peeps.
Recent Hopium Events For Viewing
Tuesday, May 9th, 1pm EST - The May Presentation of With Democrats Things Get Better - RSVP Here
Tues, May 9th, 8 pm ET - Carolina Forward & All In For North Carolina (AINC) Joint Event - Learn more, RSVP here.
Tuesday, May 16th, 1pm EST - My Monthly Political Briefing (RSVP Here)
Wednesday, May 24th, 8pm EST - Paid Subscriber Briefing and Hang Out with Simon - Learn More, RSVP
How the great outdoors transformed Oregon and the fight for the White House - Mark Barabak, LA Times
The Analyst Who Saw Through 2022’s Red Mirage Has a Prediction for 2024 - Greg Sargent, Washington Post
Joe Biden Isn’t Popular. That Might Not Matter in 2024 - Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic
Biden Faces Hurdles To Repeat in 2024 - Francesa Chambers, USA Today
Biden Is Following Newsom’s Lead and Reclaiming The Word ‘Freedom’ - Joe Garofoli, SF Chronicle
Hopium Housekeeping - If you are new to Hopium be sure to read my welcome statement and Ron Brownstein’s interview with me in the Atlantic. Together they do a good job of explaining why I’ve shuttered NDN and have set up shop here at Substack. For those who like podcasts, this interview with How We Win is also a very good introduction to what we are trying to do here.
Note there’s s a lot of material on the H/C site itself as I have brought some of my work over the past two decades along with me. Do explore. There is a lot of good stuff on the site.
By becoming a paid subscriber here at Hopium, you help provide the resources needed to keep all this work coming, and also get access to private events and materials not available to free subscribers. It’s a good deal, and hope you will consider becoming a paid subscriber today!
Happy Monday All! Keep working hard - Simon