Amen to that sister! That’s almost exactly my media diet +donations…Thinking about canceling NYT (Sunday only) subscription and only skim headlines now. Once in a while something worth reading, but mostly they piss me off
I always vote early because of that “I could get hit by the proverbial bus” precaution. I’m lucky that I can just put my ballot in a nearby drop box (which I trust more than the mail to get it to its destination with no muss or fuss). It was received and counted last week.
I can still understand the “high” of going to your polling place and voting in person, especially for younger and/or first time voters. It’s like a rite of passage.
So great to hear! Overheard a Fox News tidbit “Dem analysts question why Kamala going to Houston”. Well she has energy and she wants to boost chances for a Dem Senate! Of course did not listen to the actual “sources”
Taylor has concerts this weekend in New Orleans and next weekend in Indianapolis (I’ll be there!)- I really hope she says something during these shows.
Yesterday, Marist released polls that had GA tied at 49-49, Harris down 49-50 in AZ, and down 48-50 in NC.
BUT the really interesting stuff is in the crosstabs. Amongst people who have already voted, Kamala Harris LEADS BY 10-12 points in all three states! (Read that again.)
This paints a very different picture than the early vote data from GA and NC, which so far suggest a split close to 50-50. If (big if) Marist got even somewhat representative samples of people who have already voted, this suggests that Harris is going to do MUCH BETTER than you'd think just looking at the composition of the electorate.
I'm going to look up voter registration after I listen to Simon right now and write postcards for Josh Riley in upstate New York CD-19 (postcardstovoters.org)
Arctic Stones, what is happening in the Asheville area? Asheville is a liberal city and I am worried voters are not getting information on where and how to vote.
I am finishing up on 100 postcards to NC, none were for some places I know and love Swannanoa, Black Mountain, Asheville, Franklin, Sylva, Cullowhee, etc.. Having their votes would help us win it.
I’ve posted my cards to North Carolina but don’t know much about what is happening on the ground. I understand Mecklenburg County and Buncombe County (Asheville) are of particular interest, for obvious reasons.
Thanks. I was looking for that data. From what I have heard/read Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has the largest population of Dems but turnout is usually bad. The Party does seem to put more effort into Raleigh but hopefully that has changed this year.
I recall seeing an interview with the current chair of the Democratic Party of Mecklenburg County. Very impressive – and very conscious of his challenge. Most importantly, he and his colleagues seemed to have a plan to drive their turnout through the roof.
From what I can tell, Simon is basing his analysis, or at least his primary one, on modeled or actual party registrations. What this disregards, and I think this may be the point ArcticStones is getting at, is that there may be a significant discrepancy betwen party registration and actual voting behavior. He points to data suggesting as much, and a separate poll (USA Today?) recently found that nationally, the early vote was Harris +29 so far. Democratic and Republican votes are NOT created equal this cycle, by which I mean: You probably need 20 Republican votes to equal 18 or 19 Democratic ones because of the R schism. This would mean a 5-10% movement in our favor in an "equal" election: 50-50 becomes 52.5-47.5 or even 55-45 by this measure which, guess what, puts up by ArcticStones' (and Marist's) 10 points! Even if we're more conservative and give us a three point differential, that puts a 50-50 election at 51.5-48.5. And that is a solid win in a state like NC.
Bottom line: Keep the spirits high and the feet and fingers working!
Simon has repeatedly pointed out the same; rest assured he’s not disregarding anything!
These days I am wary of polls and must admit I pay little attention to them. That said, this is the first poll I’ve seen that indicates how Early Voters in swing states have *actually* voted. However, it’s a small sample, so I would take it with a grain of salt.
But I do see this as an encouraging indication, along with the considerable gender gap. So far, in many states, women account for 9–10 percent more of the Early Voters than men.
ArcticStones, I do exegesis of everything Simon says and writes the way some people study the Bible. Over on PW, I used to call him Saint Simon of Rosenberg. Trust me, I know everything he says! My point is a bit more nuanced than that. His metric for assessing battleground state EV performance does NOT appear to be including this consideration, which is one reason he spends so much time emphasizing "close and competitive," etc. It's only when he zooms out that he brings the R defection issue into the picture.
Carl, I wonder whether this is a bit parallel to discussions about the Pennsylvania "Firewall", i.e. the "Ballot Edge" that Democrats ahead of Election Day. Currently it’s about 366,000 – and it’s calculated as simply the difference between #Democrats Voted Early minus #Republicans Voted Early.
Consider that a recent NYT/Siena poll indicated that 12% of Republicans who are voting early are voting for Harris. Consider also that Independents who vote early are expected to break 70/30 for Harris...
You might say that we should add these estimated Harris-voting Republicans and Independents to get a "Correct Firewall" – but we don’t.
In other words, on one level we take them into account, and on another level we leave them out of the equation, not wishing to take anything as "given".
I believe Nevada is one of a handful states Simon described as "a dog-fight". It’s still early, so far the total Early Vote amounts to 29% of the total 2020 vote, with a slight R lead (about 16k votes).
Polls can be gamed. That’s what we are seeing. It’s a psyops meant to depress Dems and get our panties in a twist. Don’t give them the satisfaction. Do Something!
A reliable measure of support for political candidates and political parties is the number of individuals contributing to their campaigns. Please note that comment does not speak to the total dollars contributed but the number of people who make donations. Funding for political campaigns paticularly in high cost media markets is essential. However, ultimately the number of individual donors is a better predictor of what actual vote counts may look like in an election. It certainly also speaks to the issue of voter enthusiasm.
This Washington Post article shows what dollars and contribution numbers look like by zip code. Check out the numbers for your zip code. The article is gifted so WP’s paywall should allow you to check it out.
I know many think Democrats are overwhelmed in many areas by Republicans. That is NOT what these numbers show for many of us. I am so proud of Democrats showing up and showing out in these numbers. Y’all are doing your part.
Now lets make sure we all show up with our votes as well. We can do this!
My zip code includes part of Janelle Bynum’s district (one of our 15 House candidates): there are 1029 Dems giving $200k to 182 Trump donors who gave $30k.
I feel like this absolutely matches what I’ve been seeing with yard signs and flags.
That map was amazing. I live in a rural, Republican area and the D donors outnumbered the R donors by several hundred. Total donations were $50k for D and $7k for R.
I was going to share the same piece--*everyone* should take a look at this. Online donations to Harris-Walz are higher than those to Trump in *every state in the country,* red, blue, and purple. This is a much better indicator of intensity and predictor than some dumb-a** offshore betting market billionaires are gaming with money they found in their couch cushions (while doing god knows what).
Tom,looks like they’ve recently made a correction:
CORRECTION
An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that more people in every state donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former president Donald Trump, and it misreported donor totals in the map and chart. This was an error because data from one fundraising committee, Trump National Committee, was not included. There are six states where Trump had more donors: Alabama, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Wyoming. The article and graphics have been corrected.
In most states across the country, more people donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former president Donald Trump.
In deep MAGA, Sarasota Fl, zip code 34232, Harris 775 donations 90K, tRump 242 donations 20K. Zip code 34202 (deep red) Harris 1007 donations 200 K, tRump 448 donations 100 K. Zip code 34235 Harris 552 90K and tRump 144 for 20 K.
I have been working the Dem greeting table for early voting and we are getting Republicans saying they are voting for Harris. Now with the die hard MAGA, we have been called everything you can think of including Facist, Communist, Cheaters etc.
this WaPo graphic is amazing. Thanks! I'm guessing this data doesn't include donations to various PACs? It's just to the harris and trump campaigns, I'd guess. I looked at Middleburg VA, which is very wealthy (and I thought conservative) - more Harris donors than Trump, and more donated to Harris than Trump, but it was like $100k. I'd be surprised if there weren't some very wealthy conservatives there who gave a lot to Trumpist PACs and it's not in this data.
Please note that the most important point is the number of donors. As my post emphasizes the number of donors is more indicative of voter enthusiasm and votes than the dollar amounts. People cast votes not dollar bills.
And some really cool results: Where I live, 72701 in ruby red Arkansas, 1,235 donations to Harris for $200k vs. 234 donations totaling a measly $50k for the dancing dipshit party. Very happy face!
A Republican city mayor in a Wisconsin county that has often swung elections in the battleground state has endorsed Kamala Harris, FOX6 News Milwaukee reports.
Shawn Reilly is the mayor of Waukesha, the largest city in the county of the same name, which is also the most-populous Republican-voting county in the state that is viewed as crucial to Harris’s hopes of winning the White House. He told the broadcaster that he’s voting for the vice-president because he does not want Donald Trump to return to the White House:
“It’s difficult. The easy thing to do is just not say anything and cast my vote the way I want, but I think we’re at a crossroads now,” Reilly said. “I feel in my heart that this is something that I need to come out and say: I am going to be voting for Vice President Harris to become our next president.”
(UPDATE 8:30pm) More than 31.4 million people have already voted. Over 13.6 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while about 17.7 million people have voted Early In-Person.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 47.1% 2,364,666
NC 36.2% 2,007,659*
AZ 30.2% 1,032,284
FL 29.8% 3,325,254*
MI 24.1% 1,344,676•
NV 23.6% 408,835
WI 17.9% 592,902
PA 17.3% 1,203,577•
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
MT 31.3% 191,395
VA 28.2% 1,276,099
TX 22.6% 2,563,564
OH 21.3% 1,270,308
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp. NB. Apologies for this not appearing as a well-ordered table. If anyone knows how to do that in an ordinary comment, please let me know.)
Simon mentioned that he thinks that Dems in PA will wait until election day. I've been canvassing for six weeks in mostly African-American neighborhoods and can verify that this is accurate.
In my limited experience canvassing in Norristown, Pa., I think it's the routine with many black voters. In addition to registering voters, we were offering them forms to request mail ballots. I was struck by how many refused, saying they much prefer to vote in person so they are certain their vote gets counted.
I've heard people say that they think on-site Election Day voting is less likely to be subjected to various forms of fuckery (to use Simon's excellent word). Certainly in 2020 we saw a lot of right-wing challenges to mail-in ballots for various frivolous reasons, and stuff can always simply get lost in the mail. And I wouldn't be surprised if this preference for E-Day voting is more of a factor among people from traditionally disenfranchised communities.
As someone who has canvassed in Detroit in primarily Black neighborhoods, this is the norm. Voting on E-Day is safer to them because of concerns about their ballots being messed with. This is also the longstanding historical trend within Black communities, consistent with what Simon has already noted. But don't worry, they get out there and vote!
My daughter lives in Philly and was definite about voting Election Day even though I explained to her the advantages of early voting. (She has the “Kamala” sign I got at the rally in her window!)
Thanks for this update from the field! (Meanwhile, I saw a video today of hundreds of HBCU students in NC marching en masse to the polls and it was so so inspiring)
I plan to make calls for Mecklenberg County, NC this weekend.
Just saw this clip and I realize how crucial the county is to winning the state, and learned that they have many ballots that need to be followed up on.
YES! I saw that video when it was posted and immediately signed up to canvass there. Was there last weekend for three days and it was a blast. Amazing staff and volunteers, so much great energy, and Drew is *incredible*. (Charlotte is a six hour drive from me. Well, 8, with traffic. but it was worth it 100%!!!)
This is another reason to avoid most media now. I’m reading selected Substacks and watching Harris rallies and making donations.
Amen to that sister! That’s almost exactly my media diet +donations…Thinking about canceling NYT (Sunday only) subscription and only skim headlines now. Once in a while something worth reading, but mostly they piss me off
Cannot stand Mark Halperin
I always vote early because of that “I could get hit by the proverbial bus” precaution. I’m lucky that I can just put my ballot in a nearby drop box (which I trust more than the mail to get it to its destination with no muss or fuss). It was received and counted last week.
I can still understand the “high” of going to your polling place and voting in person, especially for younger and/or first time voters. It’s like a rite of passage.
Thanks for the link. Kamala cares. Trump is a malignant narcissist.
So powerful. Thank you for posting.
So true !
Just did some postcards for her w Postcards to Voters!
NYT reports Beyoncé
performing with Harris in Georgia.
Beyonce is performing in Houston, according to MSNBC.
you're right
The Houston rally will be huge, my sister in Dallas is taking the day off and traveling to it. Texas Dems are FIRED UP!!
It will be some wonderful images and video clips the week before the election. I am so excited she’s going to Houston!!!
Tomorrow: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/24/us/politics/kamala-harris-beyonce-houston-rally.html
Read article. The NYT is STILL talking about Biden "struggles" and courteously refer to Mr. 🍊🤡😵💫. BAFFLING!!!!
So great to hear! Overheard a Fox News tidbit “Dem analysts question why Kamala going to Houston”. Well she has energy and she wants to boost chances for a Dem Senate! Of course did not listen to the actual “sources”
Running out of things to talk about so making some things, or controversies, up.
how about why is trump going to MSG?
Will the rally broadcast on Kamala's youtube station? I'd love to see it.
So far, all rallies, interviews, town halls, etc., are on her YT channel. I've watched most of them...Simon's right, they're so inspiring!
I hope Allred is included
I heard he is going to be there also.
I imagine she is going to Texas to boost his senatorial campaign.
So funny, I literally wondered if Beyonce would be helping with GOTV just moments ago. Yay! Now...c'mon Taylor, young people want to see you too...
Taylor has concerts this weekend in New Orleans and next weekend in Indianapolis (I’ll be there!)- I really hope she says something during these shows.
This weekend would be the critical time to take an action!
Yesterday, Marist released polls that had GA tied at 49-49, Harris down 49-50 in AZ, and down 48-50 in NC.
BUT the really interesting stuff is in the crosstabs. Amongst people who have already voted, Kamala Harris LEADS BY 10-12 points in all three states! (Read that again.)
This paints a very different picture than the early vote data from GA and NC, which so far suggest a split close to 50-50. If (big if) Marist got even somewhat representative samples of people who have already voted, this suggests that Harris is going to do MUCH BETTER than you'd think just looking at the composition of the electorate.
https://maristpoll.com/latest-polls/
Polls don't vote. People vote. Vote Blue all the way through.
🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
QUESTION: Do we have other polls from swing states that filter people who’ve already voted and specifically ask them HOW they voted?
I'm going to look up voter registration after I listen to Simon right now and write postcards for Josh Riley in upstate New York CD-19 (postcardstovoters.org)
I'm writing for him too! I'm in NYC and might go out next weekend to knock on doors up there.
Me too, writing for Josh every day!
Thank you so much! I hope you can!
Thank you! I have run out of postcards and by the time I can get more the election will be over!
Arctic Stones, what is happening in the Asheville area? Asheville is a liberal city and I am worried voters are not getting information on where and how to vote.
I am finishing up on 100 postcards to NC, none were for some places I know and love Swannanoa, Black Mountain, Asheville, Franklin, Sylva, Cullowhee, etc.. Having their votes would help us win it.
McDonald has county-level voting data on North Carolina. Check it out:
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
Tom Bonier’s excellent TargetEarly/TargetSmart allows you to look at all sorts of great county-level data for North Carolina.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=NC&view_type=state
An expert on North Carolina worth following is Dr. Michael Bitzer.
https://nitter.poast.org/BowTiePolitics
I’ve posted my cards to North Carolina but don’t know much about what is happening on the ground. I understand Mecklenburg County and Buncombe County (Asheville) are of particular interest, for obvious reasons.
Thank you for these links.
Thanks. I was looking for that data. From what I have heard/read Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has the largest population of Dems but turnout is usually bad. The Party does seem to put more effort into Raleigh but hopefully that has changed this year.
I recall seeing an interview with the current chair of the Democratic Party of Mecklenburg County. Very impressive – and very conscious of his challenge. Most importantly, he and his colleagues seemed to have a plan to drive their turnout through the roof.
https://avlwatchdog.org/buncombe-board-of-elections-revises-locations-hours-for-early-voting/
From what I can tell, Simon is basing his analysis, or at least his primary one, on modeled or actual party registrations. What this disregards, and I think this may be the point ArcticStones is getting at, is that there may be a significant discrepancy betwen party registration and actual voting behavior. He points to data suggesting as much, and a separate poll (USA Today?) recently found that nationally, the early vote was Harris +29 so far. Democratic and Republican votes are NOT created equal this cycle, by which I mean: You probably need 20 Republican votes to equal 18 or 19 Democratic ones because of the R schism. This would mean a 5-10% movement in our favor in an "equal" election: 50-50 becomes 52.5-47.5 or even 55-45 by this measure which, guess what, puts up by ArcticStones' (and Marist's) 10 points! Even if we're more conservative and give us a three point differential, that puts a 50-50 election at 51.5-48.5. And that is a solid win in a state like NC.
Bottom line: Keep the spirits high and the feet and fingers working!
Simon has repeatedly pointed out the same; rest assured he’s not disregarding anything!
These days I am wary of polls and must admit I pay little attention to them. That said, this is the first poll I’ve seen that indicates how Early Voters in swing states have *actually* voted. However, it’s a small sample, so I would take it with a grain of salt.
But I do see this as an encouraging indication, along with the considerable gender gap. So far, in many states, women account for 9–10 percent more of the Early Voters than men.
ArcticStones, I do exegesis of everything Simon says and writes the way some people study the Bible. Over on PW, I used to call him Saint Simon of Rosenberg. Trust me, I know everything he says! My point is a bit more nuanced than that. His metric for assessing battleground state EV performance does NOT appear to be including this consideration, which is one reason he spends so much time emphasizing "close and competitive," etc. It's only when he zooms out that he brings the R defection issue into the picture.
Carl, I wonder whether this is a bit parallel to discussions about the Pennsylvania "Firewall", i.e. the "Ballot Edge" that Democrats ahead of Election Day. Currently it’s about 366,000 – and it’s calculated as simply the difference between #Democrats Voted Early minus #Republicans Voted Early.
Consider that a recent NYT/Siena poll indicated that 12% of Republicans who are voting early are voting for Harris. Consider also that Independents who vote early are expected to break 70/30 for Harris...
You might say that we should add these estimated Harris-voting Republicans and Independents to get a "Correct Firewall" – but we don’t.
In other words, on one level we take them into account, and on another level we leave them out of the equation, not wishing to take anything as "given".
It seems that Simon may be doing the same?
I also refuse to believe that she's far behind in NV when Sen. Rosen has had a significant lead for a while. Doesn't make much sense...
I believe Nevada is one of a handful states Simon described as "a dog-fight". It’s still early, so far the total Early Vote amounts to 29% of the total 2020 vote, with a slight R lead (about 16k votes).
Polls can be gamed. That’s what we are seeing. It’s a psyops meant to depress Dems and get our panties in a twist. Don’t give them the satisfaction. Do Something!
Is there a way to share those clips from the Town Hall?
You can go to YouTube and find them.
YouTube or KamalaHQ which is on socials.
A reliable measure of support for political candidates and political parties is the number of individuals contributing to their campaigns. Please note that comment does not speak to the total dollars contributed but the number of people who make donations. Funding for political campaigns paticularly in high cost media markets is essential. However, ultimately the number of individual donors is a better predictor of what actual vote counts may look like in an election. It certainly also speaks to the issue of voter enthusiasm.
This Washington Post article shows what dollars and contribution numbers look like by zip code. Check out the numbers for your zip code. The article is gifted so WP’s paywall should allow you to check it out.
https://wapo.st/4eXgJyg
I know many think Democrats are overwhelmed in many areas by Republicans. That is NOT what these numbers show for many of us. I am so proud of Democrats showing up and showing out in these numbers. Y’all are doing your part.
Now lets make sure we all show up with our votes as well. We can do this!
🙏
My zip code is 5,627 to 68, and $1M to $20K. Capitol Hill DC really doesn't want Trump!
That's hilarious. A lot of Republican representatives and staffers must be hiding a secret because I know plenty of them live on Capitol Hill.
My zip code includes part of Janelle Bynum’s district (one of our 15 House candidates): there are 1029 Dems giving $200k to 182 Trump donors who gave $30k.
I feel like this absolutely matches what I’ve been seeing with yard signs and flags.
That map was amazing. I live in a rural, Republican area and the D donors outnumbered the R donors by several hundred. Total donations were $50k for D and $7k for R.
Similar here in my zipcode in CT. Western CT is red in a blue state - but my town has a 197 diners to 42! 20,000 to 4,000 dollars!
Here is the updated link. The Post made an error:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/
I canceled my WashPo subscription, so I can't read the article.
Wow. Where? And for which candidates, local or national?
I was going to share the same piece--*everyone* should take a look at this. Online donations to Harris-Walz are higher than those to Trump in *every state in the country,* red, blue, and purple. This is a much better indicator of intensity and predictor than some dumb-a** offshore betting market billionaires are gaming with money they found in their couch cushions (while doing god knows what).
Tom,looks like they’ve recently made a correction:
CORRECTION
An earlier version of this article incorrectly reported that more people in every state donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former president Donald Trump, and it misreported donor totals in the map and chart. This was an error because data from one fundraising committee, Trump National Committee, was not included. There are six states where Trump had more donors: Alabama, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Wyoming. The article and graphics have been corrected.
In most states across the country, more people donated to Vice President Kamala Harris than to former president Donald Trump.
Yes, here is the updated link:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/
In deep MAGA, Sarasota Fl, zip code 34232, Harris 775 donations 90K, tRump 242 donations 20K. Zip code 34202 (deep red) Harris 1007 donations 200 K, tRump 448 donations 100 K. Zip code 34235 Harris 552 90K and tRump 144 for 20 K.
I have been working the Dem greeting table for early voting and we are getting Republicans saying they are voting for Harris. Now with the die hard MAGA, we have been called everything you can think of including Facist, Communist, Cheaters etc.
Jennie, love it! Anecdotal evidence that the “Harris/Cheney “strategy — which I am ambivalent about - may be working. Keep us posted!
I love the Harris Cheney strategy! Need more of that kind of thing in America these days!
Are you in Sarasota? I am. Anything I can do to help?
this WaPo graphic is amazing. Thanks! I'm guessing this data doesn't include donations to various PACs? It's just to the harris and trump campaigns, I'd guess. I looked at Middleburg VA, which is very wealthy (and I thought conservative) - more Harris donors than Trump, and more donated to Harris than Trump, but it was like $100k. I'd be surprised if there weren't some very wealthy conservatives there who gave a lot to Trumpist PACs and it's not in this data.
Please note that the most important point is the number of donors. As my post emphasizes the number of donors is more indicative of voter enthusiasm and votes than the dollar amounts. People cast votes not dollar bills.
Exactly, Bruce. In my red,Fl County zip code it was 50k/399 donors for Harris and 100k/538 donors for Trump.
Note: They’ve made a correction in the article since this morning.
Thanks for this! My part of PA is looking great in the Pgh area burbs and city.
Here is the updated link, since on the first, not all of the Republican donors were listed:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/
Paywalled for me. Sad face.
Edit: got it. Happy face.
And some really cool results: Where I live, 72701 in ruby red Arkansas, 1,235 donations to Harris for $200k vs. 234 donations totaling a measly $50k for the dancing dipshit party. Very happy face!
Hi all,
For those in California, the George Whitesides team (CA-27) needs more volunteers this weekend to help canvass!
Please sign up here: https://www.mobilize.us/georgewhitesidesforcongress/?org_ids=38496
Thanks!!
Mailing 5 more postcards for Will Rollins this morning. Banking with FL Yes on 4 tonight. Let’s go!!!
How is Rollins doing?
Simon et al.:
As Simon has mentioned and written about the role of malevolent forces since the founding of Hopium, there are definitely foreign actors who are smiling about this nation’s current political difficulties. Please take a look: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VogFP_jZomI&list=TLPQMjQxMDIwMjT-y17wHeAeCA and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RsVamE-PG78 . Let’s remove the smiles from their faces.
DMWL.
On that subject, has anyone been followed by people with celebrity names (fakes)?
From The Guardian:
A Republican city mayor in a Wisconsin county that has often swung elections in the battleground state has endorsed Kamala Harris, FOX6 News Milwaukee reports.
Shawn Reilly is the mayor of Waukesha, the largest city in the county of the same name, which is also the most-populous Republican-voting county in the state that is viewed as crucial to Harris’s hopes of winning the White House. He told the broadcaster that he’s voting for the vice-president because he does not want Donald Trump to return to the White House:
“It’s difficult. The easy thing to do is just not say anything and cast my vote the way I want, but I think we’re at a crossroads now,” Reilly said. “I feel in my heart that this is something that I need to come out and say: I am going to be voting for Vice President Harris to become our next president.”
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES
(UPDATE 8:30pm) More than 31.4 million people have already voted. Over 13.6 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while about 17.7 million people have voted Early In-Person.
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 47.1% 2,364,666
NC 36.2% 2,007,659*
AZ 30.2% 1,032,284
FL 29.8% 3,325,254*
MI 24.1% 1,344,676•
NV 23.6% 408,835
WI 17.9% 592,902
PA 17.3% 1,203,577•
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
MT 31.3% 191,395
VA 28.2% 1,276,099
TX 22.6% 2,563,564
OH 21.3% 1,270,308
Other key states, three included because of vital Senate races:
MT 31.3% 191,395
VA 28.2% 1,276,099
TX 22.6% 2,563,564
OH 21.3% 1,270,308
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State. When I update, I’ll change my time-stamp. NB. Apologies for this not appearing as a well-ordered table. If anyone knows how to do that in an ordinary comment, please let me know.)
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Anyone can put up a poll
Poll: MAGA'S Flee US by Millions to South America and Bring Lots of Coolaid
Simon mentioned that he thinks that Dems in PA will wait until election day. I've been canvassing for six weeks in mostly African-American neighborhoods and can verify that this is accurate.
I was there last weekend, also in what seemed to be mostly Black neighborhoods, and saw many blue signs, no red ones. How about you?
Turnout is going to be massive from G-town up to Cheltenham Ave and it is going to be 95% Kamala.
FANTASTIC! Thank you for doing this work, Loathsome (can't believe I just typed that) and Stephen.
Why do you think that's the case this time? Especially with the campaign and surrogates encouraging everyone to vote early.
In my limited experience canvassing in Norristown, Pa., I think it's the routine with many black voters. In addition to registering voters, we were offering them forms to request mail ballots. I was struck by how many refused, saying they much prefer to vote in person so they are certain their vote gets counted.
I've heard people say that they think on-site Election Day voting is less likely to be subjected to various forms of fuckery (to use Simon's excellent word). Certainly in 2020 we saw a lot of right-wing challenges to mail-in ballots for various frivolous reasons, and stuff can always simply get lost in the mail. And I wouldn't be surprised if this preference for E-Day voting is more of a factor among people from traditionally disenfranchised communities.
As someone who has canvassed in Detroit in primarily Black neighborhoods, this is the norm. Voting on E-Day is safer to them because of concerns about their ballots being messed with. This is also the longstanding historical trend within Black communities, consistent with what Simon has already noted. But don't worry, they get out there and vote!
My daughter lives in Philly and was definite about voting Election Day even though I explained to her the advantages of early voting. (She has the “Kamala” sign I got at the rally in her window!)
Seconded. I've been asking anout mail in during my canvassing, but the majority are voting in person.
AOC was in PA in the last week: Penn State and Philadelphia. She absolutely told people to vote early.
If this is true, wonder if we could get a call of PA on election night?? LFG!
Thanks for this update from the field! (Meanwhile, I saw a video today of hundreds of HBCU students in NC marching en masse to the polls and it was so so inspiring)
I plan to make calls for Mecklenberg County, NC this weekend.
Just saw this clip and I realize how crucial the county is to winning the state, and learned that they have many ballots that need to be followed up on.
https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/mecklenburg-county-north-carolina
YES! I saw that video when it was posted and immediately signed up to canvass there. Was there last weekend for three days and it was a blast. Amazing staff and volunteers, so much great energy, and Drew is *incredible*. (Charlotte is a six hour drive from me. Well, 8, with traffic. but it was worth it 100%!!!)
Glad to hear it. I've been concerned, just a bit.