The VP's To Do List, Kelly's 911 Call, My Latest Video On The 2024 Election - We Are Winning But Have Not Won It Yet

Make Calls Tonight for Derek Tran and Harris-Walz in NC and WI/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Thursday all. After getting his ass kicked in the last debate, the big blubbery baby man didn’t show up for the CNN debate last night. The Vice President of course did show up, and forcefully made her case.

Here’s the very first exchange of the night:

Here’s the now famous “Trump has an enemies list I have a to-do list moment:”

I wrote yesterday about the power of the spectacle the campaign is putting on each day to reach voters in these critical closing days - townhalls, pods, Bruce, dancing dipshits and the daily barnstorming of the battlegrounds. Look at what the campaign is doing just today. This is from a campaign press release. The ambition is incredible, inspiring. The VP and her team are bringing it, everyday. They are working hard and closing strong:

Vice President Harris will travel to Georgia for a Get Out the Vote rally with former President Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen.

Governor Walz will visit Central and Eastern North Carolina, making political stops in Durham, Greenville, and Wilmington to encourage North Carolinians to vote early. In Wilmington, Governor Walz will deliver remarks at a Harris-Walz campaign rally. Following the rally, the Governor will travel to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

Second Gentleman Emhoff will deliver remarks at Team Harris-Walz block parties in Milwaukee and Kenosha, Wisconsin, encouraging voters to Get Out the Vote and vote early for Vice President Harris, Governor Walz and Wisconsin Democrats.

Mrs. Walz will do local media interviews with WISC-TV in Madison, Wisconsin, and Native Roots Radio in Wisconsin and Minnesota. She will also participate in a New Hampshire reproductive freedom press call with U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Joyce Craig.

Just a few examples of additional events happening across the battlegrounds:

ARIZONA

  • U.S. Senator Mark Kelly in Lake Havasu City for a Veterans for Harris-Walz event and Casa Grande for an LD16 canvass launch.

  • Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes, and AARA Executive Director Dora Vasquez in Phoenix for a Seniors for Harris-Walz event.

  • Former Congressman Beto O’Rourke in Tucson for a Wildcats for Harris-Walz and Democrats Gen Z votes event as part of the “Vote For Our Future” early vote campus college tour

MICHIGAN

  • The Honorable Pete Buttigieg and Congresswoman Annie Kuster in Sterling Heights for a canvass kickoff.

NEVADA

  • Republican TV personality Ana Navarro in Las Vegas for a Nevada Republicans for Harris press conference slamming Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda.

  • Bill Nye “The Science Guy” in Reno to mobilize and encourage University of Nevada, Reno students to vote early.

NORTH CAROLINA

  • National Security Leaders for America in Greensboro for a press conference.

  • DNC Chair Jaime Harrison in Charlotte, Greensboro, and Winston-Salem for a ‘Black Men’s Breakfast’ and canvass launches.

  • Former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords in Charlotte for a ‘March to the Polls’ event and Huntersville for a canvass launch.

PENNSYLVANIA

  • Governor Josh Shapiro, Senator Raphael Warnock, former Lt. Governor Geoff Duncan and former Rep. Jim Greenwood in Lancaster for a New Way Forward ‘Unity’ rally.

  • Senator Raphael Warnock in Philadelphia for a Get Out The Vote rally.

WISCONSIN

  • Doc Rivers, Terry Porter, and Governor Wes Moore in Milwaukee for a ‘Dunks for Democracy’ event.

The 2024 Election - My latest video on the 2024 election is above. It was recorded last night in our weekly live gathering of our Hopium paid subscribers. My view on the election has not changed in the past week, and I still believe, deeply, that we are winning but not have won it yet. Winning it is up to us and the work we do in these final 12 days!

My latest 2024 election toplines:

  • Non-red wave national and state polling has been remarkably consistent and steady since the debate. The VP leads by 2-3-4 points nationally, and we are closer to 270 than Trump. Her favs/unfavs are far better than Trump’s, which can matter for late-breaking voters. She’s also closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge achievement. The flood of red wave polls in recent weeks (over 80 polls, 31 different orgs) have tipped some of the averages but do not be fooled. The race favors us and is not slipping away.

  • With our ground and financial advantage, we should be able to reach more voters and close stronger than the Rs in the final two weeks (why we have to keep working it). The organized opposition to Trump from prominent Republican leaders in the home stretch is also going to matter.

  • We continue to have good days in the battleground states early vote. My own assessment is that we should be encouraged by GA, MI, NE and WI, and are competitive everywhere else. It’s trench warfare folks and we just have to keep fighting, everyday.

  • Since Dobbs, we’ve been the party overperforming polls, not Republicans. Trump and Republicans, like their fascist allies in Europe and France this summer, have underperformed public polls repeatedly in this and the last election cycle. Will it be different this time? I wouldn’t bet on it.

  • The Senate remains a brawl, and there is a great deal of optimism about what we are seeing in the House races. The VP is heading to Houston on Friday for a big speech on abortion rights and reproductive freedom, and to support Colin Allred who has made it a race in Texas.

  • Our candidate isn’t unraveling on camera every day, and ducking challenging interviews and debates. Our candidate isn’t a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon, the oldest person to be the nominee of an American political party and the most dangerous political leader in all of our history. Our candidate, the Vice President of the United States of America, is strong, winning, optimistic, committed to opportunity and freedom, is for the people and is working unbelievably hard to win this election for all of us.

I did a rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th:

  • Independent Polls - Harris +2.7

  • Right-aligned polls - Trump +1

Right-aligned polls ran 3-4 points more Republican than the independent polls in 2022, and are doing so again this time. These polls created a mirage of right-ward movement, a red wave, and are doing so again. Do not be fooled, people, and remember - they would only be dropping all these polls if they thought they were losing the election.

The early vote in the battlegrounds has been getting better for us this week. According to TargetEarly we are now running above 2020 in GA, MI, NE-2, and WI. We are closing the gap in AZ, NC, NV. It is still hard to analyze PA as I think many Dems there are choosing to vote on Election Day.

It is now possible that what we are seeing in the battlegrounds is a 2024 manifestation of my “two elections” take on 2022. That take argued that in 2022 there were two elections - a bluer election inside the battlegrounds, and a redder one outside. Our financial and grassroots superiority allowed us to control the information environment in the 2022 battlegrounds and drive our performance to the upper end of what was possible. It is why Republicans gained ground in the national popular vote but lost ground in many of the 2022 battlegrounds. In 2022 we outperformed our 2020 vote in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA and we won critical statewide elections in NV and WI. It remains a remarkable achievement given the national environment.

In TargetEarly’s latest overnight update Republicans made gains in the national early vote, but we gained ground in 7 of the 8 battlegrounds (incl NE-2). We are now running near or ahead of 2020 - a remarkable thing - in the aggregate of the 7 battleground states. The explanation for what we are seeing, and we will need to see more of it to be sure, is that Rs had a surge of voters vote in the early days of the early vote but due to their lack of a true field operation have been unable to sustain it over time. That as we go to work and keep moving voters through our ads, our direct voter contact and the daily spectacle we are making the battlegrounds bluer - as happened in 2022, and as we all believed would happen this time (this paragraph has been edited and updated since this my post this morning).

This is why claims you hear from commentators that Rs are showing more intensity in the early vote are simply wrong. Right now it is the Harris campaign that is outperforming 2020 and expectations in the early vote. Which is why some polls may be making a big, big mistake right now as they adjust for what is a mirage of GOP intensity:

Here’s the Washington Post’s daily battleground averages (we win this election):

Here are the new Morning Consult battleground polls:

Friends, the election is really close. Try to not overthink all this data. Today, I would much rather be us than them but we have make every day a good day. We need to win the day every day. We need to go out there, and win this thing, together in the next 12 days.

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - We had a great turnout for our first home stretch phonebank on Tuesday and have an even bigger crew coming tonight. Tonight we will be calling in CA-45 for Derek Tran and NC and WI for Harris-Walz. Sign up for a shift and do some good with the Hopium community:

  • Thursday, Oct 24th, 7-9pm - Calls For Derek Tran (CA-45) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (expect to hear from Derek Tran live)

  • Tuesday, Oct 29th, 7-9pm - Calls for Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (hope we will hear from both candidates, still working on it)

My one big ask today - donate to Ruben Gallego/Arizona or Anderson Clayton and the North Carolina Dems. We need to keep working to create that second pathway to 270 in case any of MI, PA, WI don’t happen for us. Both of these states have extremists at the top of the ticket who give us a chance to have big years and lock down the Electoral College for the Vice President.

I also want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. Thank you all.

Let’s get to it!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,311,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live

Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:

Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!

Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:

Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:

  • Hopium Subscribers - 112,720 this morning, 125,000 goal

  • Paid Subscribers - 13,095 this morning, 14,000 goal

This new effort is off a great start everyone - thank you! Keep working it. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you.

Let’s bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Simon