Age vs. Accomplishments. Biden has done so much good and is competent and sane versus DJT. My husband has Diabetes 1 and uses an insulin pump. I picked up 7 vials of insulin for $35. This is a huge relief and savings for us.
Feels very surreal, doesn't it? As the Bulwark just put it in their headline, "Biden is old. Trump is crazy." Give me a sane old person any day of the week. Moses was old too.
That's a good point and I'm sure Biden himself has considered it. We are all mortal. Just remember that Presidents have died in office before. Kennedy was assassinated in his 40's. It would be naive to think this isn't a possibility, but President Biden is doing a good job. He is also training a lot of other people to work with him. Death happens and people deal with it. Maybe we should have a grim reaper piece on exactly how many Presidents died in or on their way to office along with their ages. It might offer a bit of historical perspective which can be helpful.
" It’s why I think to really understand what’s happening in the Presidential race we are going to have to rely much more on large sample, high quality state polls." I agree and would even go further, that given that we know the Presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states, it is only those states that are relevant and information about other states should be disregarded as mostly noise.
I disagree. Assuming that the presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states is a dangerous assumption. We're all in this together.
It's a prediction, not an assumption, similarly to the prediction that if I hold a rock in my hand and open my hand, the rock will fall. It is about that certain. The only uncertainty lies in precisely which states are swing states. This does change over time, but slowly. For example, in 2000 Florida was quite close, and is unlikely (but not impossible) to be a swing state in 2024. For 2024, we are talking about PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, and NC as the core swing states
Here in Iowa if half of the registered Democrats in the county I live in who didn't vote had voted, there would be one more Democrat in the House and one less Republican. One of the reasons given for the poor turnout was very little support and encouragement from outside the state.
Yes, there is a difference between the Presidential election and the elections for the House and Senate, where there are other states and districts in play, not to mention state houses. All these elections are important, but my comment referred to the electoral college only.
Two points on this: 1) there is unprecedented national and out of state money pouring into battleground Democratic House and Senate races. Targeted House and Senate campaigns are getting more support from outside than they ever have. 2) The two recent big state success stories - AZ and GA - were turned purple/blue due to years of hard work by leaders in the state. They took the initiative, did the work and national money followed. Will be the same for IA and any other state.
I really appreciate you emphasizing that we are all in this together. The MAGA crowd is attacking democracy and dividing Americans unnecessarily. This is a frontal attack which has to be defeated. We need to help each other out and remember that, indeed, we're all in this together. Thank you for continuing to say that.
I am going to blame the WP if Biden comes up short. grrrrr- The WP needs to print more articles on all the positive, incredible things President Biden has accomplished.
WaPo is my favorite newspaper until today. Fortunately, WaPo has Dana Milbank, Jennifer Rubin, Perry Bacon and more that makes it a good newspaper and better than this terrible poll. We subscribe to NY Times, WaPo, AJC (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Chattanooga Times Free Press and several on sub stack.
Your newsletter tonight was on fire! I excerpted this from it, “The very fact that you are reading a newsletter on Substack shows that there are ways to circumvent the press. Tens of millions of Americans follow political news on Substack, podcasts, social media platforms, and independent blogs by respected journalists who have fled the corporate media paradigm that demands headline-driven soundbite journalism.”
Your recommendations point the way toward sanity. We must be vigilant with our minds and avoid these frenzied traps. It feels now more than ever that we’re on a voyage together. All of us, who never knew or read one another before, have found each other. As you’ve said, we have Substack, podcasts, and social media; I certainly feel smarter about our courts’ processes and how elections are run, along with a complete brush-up of Civics.
I agree. I've also been thinking that having a brush-up on civics would be a really good place to start. It's been a very long time since I took civics. We need all the tools we can get our hands on to stop this stupidity.
Thank you for this bit of sanity! Maybe you can submit an Op-Ed to WAPO about why you’re so optimistic? These outlier polls discourage people; they do not serve us and our efforts to strengthen our democracy.
The weird thing that I feel like is happening that is an extension of the 2022 midterm is that it appears at this point that Biden has lost as much as 3 or 4 points of support in non-competitive states (some of which are pretty populous) that he will still win if nothing changes, but by a lower margin, and at the same time gained significant ground in battleground states to the tune of 1 - 3 points on average. Also, I suspect that Trump’s support is spiked in red states right now because they are circling the wagons around him in his time of legal peril. If I’m right about this, it is more of a concern for down ballot races than the presidential at this time, and it’s DEFINITELY an indicator of the “structural asymmetry” of voters feeling a stake in Washington caused by our wacky electoral college system. Voters in the places that feel the weight of their decision have already erected a firewall to block MAGA and disaffected, probably low information/low engagement voters coming from states where the outcome already feels decided are bored and curious, and as a result a little more reckless in their current assessment of things.
The remarkable thing is that Trump made huge gains from 2016-2020 but he still only got 46.8% of the vote. As downtrodden as I am, and I am, I still have a hard time believing Trump is going to get a majority of Americans to support him. Of course, he doesn’t need to, but even if he peels off voters in like NY or CA, it doesn’t matter.
Simon. Great picture of President Biden with President Zelenskyy I suggest you use the similar shot taken by the AP that shows a strong and confident Biden with Zelenskyy trying to keep up. Very strong image (I could not figure how to attach the picture in the comments).
Simon- thanks for the usual great insights. I think this outlier poll result reinforces the need for you to host an online meeting/ conversation to help the Hopium community understand how to interpret polls in general. We’ve talked about the need in the past and it feels like this reinforces the usefulness of better equipping the team to know how to distinguish between the good, the bad and the crazy polls and polling providers. Thanks !
Thank you for this post. I was alarmed and wasted about an hour of my time arguing in the comment section of WaPo with Russian trolls posing as WaPo commenters.
It seems to WaPo and pollsters that the abortion issue is no longer important. That is not what I'm hearing in TN, where women face a death sentence in a medical emergency. This is a serious issue and it is not going away for women and most younger men.
We are excited about Gloria Johnson (the white woman in the Tennessee Three, who was not expelled because of the color of her skin). Gloria is Standing Tall and will be our next Senator. Bye Marsha.
Polls?! A snapshot only as Simon reminds us, not predictions. Interesting the 19th/ survey monkey poll of 20K adult responses saying democracy at risk, and D’s are the ones who care! Thoughts?
Database link below. Has results and trend compared to last year. I don’t know anything about the integrity of polling, but seems to have really tried to mix demographics. If it is worth your peek Simon, curious on your thoughts?
Age vs. Accomplishments. Biden has done so much good and is competent and sane versus DJT. My husband has Diabetes 1 and uses an insulin pump. I picked up 7 vials of insulin for $35. This is a huge relief and savings for us.
Trump is two years younger than Biden and yet he somehow projects “capability”? What planet is this?
Feels very surreal, doesn't it? As the Bulwark just put it in their headline, "Biden is old. Trump is crazy." Give me a sane old person any day of the week. Moses was old too.
That's a good point and I'm sure Biden himself has considered it. We are all mortal. Just remember that Presidents have died in office before. Kennedy was assassinated in his 40's. It would be naive to think this isn't a possibility, but President Biden is doing a good job. He is also training a lot of other people to work with him. Death happens and people deal with it. Maybe we should have a grim reaper piece on exactly how many Presidents died in or on their way to office along with their ages. It might offer a bit of historical perspective which can be helpful.
" It’s why I think to really understand what’s happening in the Presidential race we are going to have to rely much more on large sample, high quality state polls." I agree and would even go further, that given that we know the Presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states, it is only those states that are relevant and information about other states should be disregarded as mostly noise.
I disagree. Assuming that the presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states is a dangerous assumption. We're all in this together.
It's a prediction, not an assumption, similarly to the prediction that if I hold a rock in my hand and open my hand, the rock will fall. It is about that certain. The only uncertainty lies in precisely which states are swing states. This does change over time, but slowly. For example, in 2000 Florida was quite close, and is unlikely (but not impossible) to be a swing state in 2024. For 2024, we are talking about PA, MI, WI, AZ, GA, and NC as the core swing states
Here in Iowa if half of the registered Democrats in the county I live in who didn't vote had voted, there would be one more Democrat in the House and one less Republican. One of the reasons given for the poor turnout was very little support and encouragement from outside the state.
We're all in this together.
Yes, there is a difference between the Presidential election and the elections for the House and Senate, where there are other states and districts in play, not to mention state houses. All these elections are important, but my comment referred to the electoral college only.
Two points on this: 1) there is unprecedented national and out of state money pouring into battleground Democratic House and Senate races. Targeted House and Senate campaigns are getting more support from outside than they ever have. 2) The two recent big state success stories - AZ and GA - were turned purple/blue due to years of hard work by leaders in the state. They took the initiative, did the work and national money followed. Will be the same for IA and any other state.
I really appreciate you emphasizing that we are all in this together. The MAGA crowd is attacking democracy and dividing Americans unnecessarily. This is a frontal attack which has to be defeated. We need to help each other out and remember that, indeed, we're all in this together. Thank you for continuing to say that.
The 7 Presidential battlegrounds as of today are AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI.
Victor, I agree. Here’s a long article in The New Republic you’ll find interesting.
https://newrepublic.com/article/175331/never-trump-republicans-actually-just-democrats-now?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I am going to blame the WP if Biden comes up short. grrrrr- The WP needs to print more articles on all the positive, incredible things President Biden has accomplished.
WaPo is my favorite newspaper until today. Fortunately, WaPo has Dana Milbank, Jennifer Rubin, Perry Bacon and more that makes it a good newspaper and better than this terrible poll. We subscribe to NY Times, WaPo, AJC (Atlanta Journal Constitution, Chattanooga Times Free Press and several on sub stack.
Excellent analysis! I will include your post in my newsletter this evening!
Thank you Robert. Look forward to seeing what you come up with!
Oh great. I subscribe to you, too.
Robert,
Your newsletter tonight was on fire! I excerpted this from it, “The very fact that you are reading a newsletter on Substack shows that there are ways to circumvent the press. Tens of millions of Americans follow political news on Substack, podcasts, social media platforms, and independent blogs by respected journalists who have fled the corporate media paradigm that demands headline-driven soundbite journalism.”
Your recommendations point the way toward sanity. We must be vigilant with our minds and avoid these frenzied traps. It feels now more than ever that we’re on a voyage together. All of us, who never knew or read one another before, have found each other. As you’ve said, we have Substack, podcasts, and social media; I certainly feel smarter about our courts’ processes and how elections are run, along with a complete brush-up of Civics.
Thanks so much to Simon. Brilliant!
Best wishes,
Bess
I agree. I've also been thinking that having a brush-up on civics would be a really good place to start. It's been a very long time since I took civics. We need all the tools we can get our hands on to stop this stupidity.
Thank you for this bit of sanity! Maybe you can submit an Op-Ed to WAPO about why you’re so optimistic? These outlier polls discourage people; they do not serve us and our efforts to strengthen our democracy.
The weird thing that I feel like is happening that is an extension of the 2022 midterm is that it appears at this point that Biden has lost as much as 3 or 4 points of support in non-competitive states (some of which are pretty populous) that he will still win if nothing changes, but by a lower margin, and at the same time gained significant ground in battleground states to the tune of 1 - 3 points on average. Also, I suspect that Trump’s support is spiked in red states right now because they are circling the wagons around him in his time of legal peril. If I’m right about this, it is more of a concern for down ballot races than the presidential at this time, and it’s DEFINITELY an indicator of the “structural asymmetry” of voters feeling a stake in Washington caused by our wacky electoral college system. Voters in the places that feel the weight of their decision have already erected a firewall to block MAGA and disaffected, probably low information/low engagement voters coming from states where the outcome already feels decided are bored and curious, and as a result a little more reckless in their current assessment of things.
The remarkable thing is that Trump made huge gains from 2016-2020 but he still only got 46.8% of the vote. As downtrodden as I am, and I am, I still have a hard time believing Trump is going to get a majority of Americans to support him. Of course, he doesn’t need to, but even if he peels off voters in like NY or CA, it doesn’t matter.
Simon. Great picture of President Biden with President Zelenskyy I suggest you use the similar shot taken by the AP that shows a strong and confident Biden with Zelenskyy trying to keep up. Very strong image (I could not figure how to attach the picture in the comments).
Simon- thanks for the usual great insights. I think this outlier poll result reinforces the need for you to host an online meeting/ conversation to help the Hopium community understand how to interpret polls in general. We’ve talked about the need in the past and it feels like this reinforces the usefulness of better equipping the team to know how to distinguish between the good, the bad and the crazy polls and polling providers. Thanks !
Come to my talk with Tom Bonier on Oct 11th. We will be getting into this a bit. It's a start.
I’ll for sure join the session with you and Tom. I’m finishing up a month long journey across the western US and eager to re-engage actively!!
Thank you for this post. I was alarmed and wasted about an hour of my time arguing in the comment section of WaPo with Russian trolls posing as WaPo commenters.
It seems to WaPo and pollsters that the abortion issue is no longer important. That is not what I'm hearing in TN, where women face a death sentence in a medical emergency. This is a serious issue and it is not going away for women and most younger men.
We are excited about Gloria Johnson (the white woman in the Tennessee Three, who was not expelled because of the color of her skin). Gloria is Standing Tall and will be our next Senator. Bye Marsha.
I hope so! I think Gloria Johnson is very inspiring.
Polls?! A snapshot only as Simon reminds us, not predictions. Interesting the 19th/ survey monkey poll of 20K adult responses saying democracy at risk, and D’s are the ones who care! Thoughts?
Mika & Joe explain
https://youtu.be/DJDMOhvWDNo?si=9aBC9kZegyW8nuNb
Database link below. Has results and trend compared to last year. I don’t know anything about the integrity of polling, but seems to have really tried to mix demographics. If it is worth your peek Simon, curious on your thoughts?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18XkFkrTsiFxV_IKTQ41rGM_-6paEDNZD/htmlview#gid=1377403796
https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/19th-politics-2023/
You can click thru the survey questions/ results by age group here. Enjoy, data folks!