" It’s why I think to really understand what’s happening in the Presidential race we are going to have to rely much more on large sample, high quality state polls." I agree and would even go further, that given that we know the Presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states, it is only those states that are relevant and information about other states should be disregarded as mostly noise.
I am going to blame the WP if Biden comes up short. grrrrr- The WP needs to print more articles on all the positive, incredible things President Biden has accomplished.
Thank you for this bit of sanity! Maybe you can submit an Op-Ed to WAPO about why you’re so optimistic? These outlier polls discourage people; they do not serve us and our efforts to strengthen our democracy.
The weird thing that I feel like is happening that is an extension of the 2022 midterm is that it appears at this point that Biden has lost as much as 3 or 4 points of support in non-competitive states (some of which are pretty populous) that he will still win if nothing changes, but by a lower margin, and at the same time gained significant ground in battleground states to the tune of 1 - 3 points on average. Also, I suspect that Trump’s support is spiked in red states right now because they are circling the wagons around him in his time of legal peril. If I’m right about this, it is more of a concern for down ballot races than the presidential at this time, and it’s DEFINITELY an indicator of the “structural asymmetry” of voters feeling a stake in Washington caused by our wacky electoral college system. Voters in the places that feel the weight of their decision have already erected a firewall to block MAGA and disaffected, probably low information/low engagement voters coming from states where the outcome already feels decided are bored and curious, and as a result a little more reckless in their current assessment of things.
The remarkable thing is that Trump made huge gains from 2016-2020 but he still only got 46.8% of the vote. As downtrodden as I am, and I am, I still have a hard time believing Trump is going to get a majority of Americans to support him. Of course, he doesn’t need to, but even if he peels off voters in like NY or CA, it doesn’t matter.
Simon. Great picture of President Biden with President Zelenskyy I suggest you use the similar shot taken by the AP that shows a strong and confident Biden with Zelenskyy trying to keep up. Very strong image (I could not figure how to attach the picture in the comments).
Simon- thanks for the usual great insights. I think this outlier poll result reinforces the need for you to host an online meeting/ conversation to help the Hopium community understand how to interpret polls in general. We’ve talked about the need in the past and it feels like this reinforces the usefulness of better equipping the team to know how to distinguish between the good, the bad and the crazy polls and polling providers. Thanks !
Thank you for this post. I was alarmed and wasted about an hour of my time arguing in the comment section of WaPo with Russian trolls posing as WaPo commenters.
It seems to WaPo and pollsters that the abortion issue is no longer important. That is not what I'm hearing in TN, where women face a death sentence in a medical emergency. This is a serious issue and it is not going away for women and most younger men.
We are excited about Gloria Johnson (the white woman in the Tennessee Three, who was not expelled because of the color of her skin). Gloria is Standing Tall and will be our next Senator. Bye Marsha.
Polls?! A snapshot only as Simon reminds us, not predictions. Interesting the 19th/ survey monkey poll of 20K adult responses saying democracy at risk, and D’s are the ones who care! Thoughts?
Database link below. Has results and trend compared to last year. I don’t know anything about the integrity of polling, but seems to have really tried to mix demographics. If it is worth your peek Simon, curious on your thoughts?
" It’s why I think to really understand what’s happening in the Presidential race we are going to have to rely much more on large sample, high quality state polls." I agree and would even go further, that given that we know the Presidential election is going to be decided in a handful of swing states, it is only those states that are relevant and information about other states should be disregarded as mostly noise.
I am going to blame the WP if Biden comes up short. grrrrr- The WP needs to print more articles on all the positive, incredible things President Biden has accomplished.
Excellent analysis! I will include your post in my newsletter this evening!
Thank you for this bit of sanity! Maybe you can submit an Op-Ed to WAPO about why you’re so optimistic? These outlier polls discourage people; they do not serve us and our efforts to strengthen our democracy.
The weird thing that I feel like is happening that is an extension of the 2022 midterm is that it appears at this point that Biden has lost as much as 3 or 4 points of support in non-competitive states (some of which are pretty populous) that he will still win if nothing changes, but by a lower margin, and at the same time gained significant ground in battleground states to the tune of 1 - 3 points on average. Also, I suspect that Trump’s support is spiked in red states right now because they are circling the wagons around him in his time of legal peril. If I’m right about this, it is more of a concern for down ballot races than the presidential at this time, and it’s DEFINITELY an indicator of the “structural asymmetry” of voters feeling a stake in Washington caused by our wacky electoral college system. Voters in the places that feel the weight of their decision have already erected a firewall to block MAGA and disaffected, probably low information/low engagement voters coming from states where the outcome already feels decided are bored and curious, and as a result a little more reckless in their current assessment of things.
The remarkable thing is that Trump made huge gains from 2016-2020 but he still only got 46.8% of the vote. As downtrodden as I am, and I am, I still have a hard time believing Trump is going to get a majority of Americans to support him. Of course, he doesn’t need to, but even if he peels off voters in like NY or CA, it doesn’t matter.
Simon. Great picture of President Biden with President Zelenskyy I suggest you use the similar shot taken by the AP that shows a strong and confident Biden with Zelenskyy trying to keep up. Very strong image (I could not figure how to attach the picture in the comments).
Simon- thanks for the usual great insights. I think this outlier poll result reinforces the need for you to host an online meeting/ conversation to help the Hopium community understand how to interpret polls in general. We’ve talked about the need in the past and it feels like this reinforces the usefulness of better equipping the team to know how to distinguish between the good, the bad and the crazy polls and polling providers. Thanks !
Thank you for this post. I was alarmed and wasted about an hour of my time arguing in the comment section of WaPo with Russian trolls posing as WaPo commenters.
It seems to WaPo and pollsters that the abortion issue is no longer important. That is not what I'm hearing in TN, where women face a death sentence in a medical emergency. This is a serious issue and it is not going away for women and most younger men.
We are excited about Gloria Johnson (the white woman in the Tennessee Three, who was not expelled because of the color of her skin). Gloria is Standing Tall and will be our next Senator. Bye Marsha.
Polls?! A snapshot only as Simon reminds us, not predictions. Interesting the 19th/ survey monkey poll of 20K adult responses saying democracy at risk, and D’s are the ones who care! Thoughts?
Mika & Joe explain
https://youtu.be/DJDMOhvWDNo?si=9aBC9kZegyW8nuNb
Database link below. Has results and trend compared to last year. I don’t know anything about the integrity of polling, but seems to have really tried to mix demographics. If it is worth your peek Simon, curious on your thoughts?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18XkFkrTsiFxV_IKTQ41rGM_-6paEDNZD/htmlview#gid=1377403796
https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/19th-politics-2023/
You can click thru the survey questions/ results by age group here. Enjoy, data folks!