30 Comments
founding

I have to ask. Finally I have to ask it out loud. Where do all the new hires for New York Times sienna polls come from? Are they refugees from the polling companies that you and Tom Bonier exposed as biased.

You and Tom exposed a plan to flood zone with biased polls . Once exposed, they could never do it again so they had to come up with another plan. planting folk in seemingly unbiased polling companies would be a smart move.

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I don’t think that Simon has ever asserted that the NYT polls were biased, but we should ask him.

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Just remember this from 10/28/20; “The ABC News-Washington Post poll found Biden supported by 57 percent of likely voters, far ahead of the president’s 40 percent. The former vice president has gained 5 percentage points since the last ABC News-Washington Post poll in mid-September, while the president lost 6 points.”

17 points!!!

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I’ve wondered how much pollsters are overcompensating for how wrong they were in 2020?

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I agree: the NY Times polls are crap. All polls are crap. Because they are not actually polling people who are focused voters and their metrics are not easily discernible. However, I have some things to say about the Dems and the way they are engaging in messaging: it is absolutely beyond terrible. First: I have been forced to block the 30 or so texts A DAY I was getting from various bot phone numbers screaming at me to give them money, but providing NO GOOD REASON to do so. I even wrote to the Democratic National Campaign Committee to complain. And what did I get? Even more bots texting me. If all they want from their base is our savings, then they're not worth it, even though I will faithfully vote for them (I have never ever voted for a Republican, even when people like John Lindsey were in the party). I won't give them money until and unless I see some real public, inclusive, aggressive stance on the part of the Dem machine to challenge every seat in Congress; to prosecute every single local election with the same vigor they use to scream at me for money.

Second: the messaging is directed at the echo chamber and the choir, not to outreach and actual argumentation and pushing against the neofascist and Christofascist messaging. When I see nothing in the Times, Washington Post, Guardian, or local papers except amplification of the Wingnuts on the Extreme Right I know that the media "experts" in the Dem machine are not doing their job. Biden might be doing a great job on some things, but educating the actual public ain't one of them. It's nice that you focus on all the good stuff, Simon, but you're preaching to the choir.

Third: The situations in the Middle East and in Ukraine are perfectly designed to amplify the Christofascists and to denigrate the perspective of the Biden Administration. The nuances of their position are lost on most people. And why? Because they're not teaching anyone anything about either situation. They are not presenting context, history, information, facts. They are ceding the public airwaves to the Christofascists whose support of Israel is all about their expectation of the Last Days and the requirement--as they interpret Revelations--that Jews have to be in Jerusalem in order for the Antichrist to come and for all the Jews to be wiped off the face of the earth. If the Dems were actually honest about why the Christofascists "support" Israel--and why the extremists in the Israeli government find them useful--maybe a few more people would be educated about how antisemitic these f**kers really are. And the situation in Gaza and the West Bank? These are also poorly addressed because even though the Biden administration tries to separate the Palestinian people from their extremist governors, they cede the field to those who conflate them. Also, by not protecting Palestinian-Americans in Gaza, they have alienated some of the most vocal supporters of their administration in Michigan, Minnesota, and elsewhere. They have done a lousy job of protecting American citizens in Gaza and it shows. The same goes for the wimpiness of the Dem response to Putin, who is NOT trying to reconstruct the USSR. He is trying to reconstruct the Romanov Empire. And no one wants to talk about that. And about why the Christofascists find him so appealing--could it be their racist, sexist, imperialist, colonialist white supremacist perspective finds Putin's similar tactics desirable?

So if I sound disgusted, that is because I am.

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Any tips on stopping the texts are appreciated! I took my phone number off ACtBlue and reply Stop when I have the energy.

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My iPhone has a "delete and report junk" feature on texts. I click on that. The bots switch to new numbers but they are actually slowing down. The emails, however, are harder to get rid of. I get around 20-30 of those a day too.

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Yes!!!!!!!!!

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Regarding the youth vote: I am a Political Science professor, and I am not seeing any evidence of a shift toward Trump among young people. None.

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Please tell us more.

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That’s the whole story. I see a lot of students. Nothing has changed.

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The information you’ve packed in here is just mind-boggling. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.

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Simon - thank you for your excellent and thoughtful analysis. Because of you, we are better informed and better able to surgically add value where it's needed. It's so helpful!

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I noted the NYTIMESSienna poll was for 3,662 people over 6 states. That's just

a tiny bit more than 610

people per state, over

12 days.

The biggest problem is the

Economy. But, the poll doesn't breakdown the

economy from National,

which is doing really well,

and state/county, where

people are spending their

money, where inflation is

beyond(?) the presidents

control. Perhaps Dem

messaging needs to start

homing in on this and any

Dem polls?

Thank you, Simon for your

tireless work.

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Why do you think it is weird to be up 2 in Wisconsin and down 5 in Michigan?

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What's concerning for me is not the numbers, which are misleading at this point in the cycle. But I'm bothered by the fact that Trump has this much support and that this is a close election. Even if Biden wins in the end, it says that much of our nation does not support democracy. That's what is disturbing for me: As a nation we seem to have lost our clear-majority sense that we are the leaders of the free world.

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Yes, concerning; fooled by false populism and false messaging. Need to overwhelm with facts.

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My FB post, Democrats and other sane people are freaking out because the New York Times has a poll out this morning with Trump ahead of Biden a year out from the election. I'm not freaking out. Whenever the pictures on TV are bad, it is bad for the party in power. My guess is that the pictures are going to get a little prettier over the next year and the war between Israel & Hamas will recede in the public mind. The election will be more a choice between two people (two, not three or four) rather than simply a reflection of current events and fear. As long as American troops are not directly at stake, the year old Israel-Hamas war a year from now is not going to be a voting issue.

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Hopium Chronicles saving sanity yet again. Read latest from DCCC only because it was linked here; informative/helpful. Tons of admiration and respect for Dem leader yet another rote email for $$$$ is more fingernails on chalkboard. Being in a blue state, activism/donations are due to Hopium Chronicles, Today’s Edition, Chop Wood Carry Water, Pepperspectives and orgs to which they have provided connection. Thank you Simon, staff and all commenters.

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Anyone can put up a poll

Poll: 81% of MAGA GOP's Never Vote to Protest 2020

Poll: MAGA'S Flee US by Millions to South America

Poll: Donald Duck for President Beats Trump 10 to 1

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Nov 5, 2023·edited Nov 5, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

I'm done being worried (for today anyway). Now I'm just angry. I am so sick of these treasonous MAGA asshats. Doing a phonebank in about 2 hours.

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Nov 5, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

That is the best way is to turn your feelings into something helpful and positive! Thank you for your efforts!!!!

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Nov 5, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Jay Kuo @ Status KUO on Substack writes an article much similar to Simons. All his reasons why Dems will prevail as long as we keep up all the hard work. I think Simons data has made it evident to thinking Dems! Now let’s wake up the sleeping electorate and get the youth vote out

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Nov 5, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Thanks Simon for the update. Of course, with people like Steve Schmidt (and who needs enemies if we have friends like him out there) out there running down Biden it is no wonder why poll numbers are out there like this. I still think there is a 'bent' to these polls

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Nov 5, 2023Liked by Simon Rosenberg

Keep the faith (and fight) everyone - ignore the NYT and focus on what is relevant - Tuesday. There is good news - we are showing up and fighting hard. I canvassed today for Josh Thomas (and Danica Roem in Manassas (Prince William County - the key purple county for NoVA), one of Simon’s targets. There is tons of volunteer intensity and enthusiasm. The houses on my packet were clearly being canvassed repeatedly (one had five sets of flyers sitting on the front stoop). The people I spoke too (about 7 out of 37 houses) were all happy to see me and said, yes, they were voting on Tuesday and that they had been visited multiple times. I know I was only canvassing 1, 2s but I’ve never had this positive experience in Prince William (I’ve done a lot of canvassing there - even though I’m a Marylander). There is clearly energy about stopping the proposed abortion ban but also about gun safety. Manassas, Nova just had a horrific situation where an 8 year shot a teacher. Also, the canvassing office, while clearly happy to see me, did not seem worried about me coming back (and seemed to have more volunteers then they could handle). All good signs. Let’s continue to work hard and get another win.

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author

thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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