Today is primary day in Washington State, as well as other States. Some things I'm tracking here: the primary for the open state senate seat in the 42nd LD; the primary in Washington's 2nd and 3rd Congressional districts; my own PCO race against a young DSA activist.
This morning the sky is grey, and we'll be moving into "moderate" smokiness.
I am drafting my early-week message to my elected officials (all Dems): I hope there's a comprehensive list of Republican on-the-record responses to the disclosure that this WH extended crime family withheld $ from states that didn't capitulate by voting for them.
I'm wishing you safety and federal help if you need it.
PCO stands for precinct committee officer. They represent a neighborhood for the Democratic or Republican party. In Washington State, a precinct can have both a Republican and a Democratic PCO. By law, no other party can elect a PCO. So there are no DSA PCOs.
My opponent is running as a Democrat, even though she is a local DSA Vice-Chair. She is also a paid field organizer for the Democrats in the 42nd state legislative district.
ANYONE WANNA BET? Trumps money-laundering "crimes" cited by Capital One's are related to EPSTEIN FILES? Follow the money!
In a motion to dismiss the case filed Friday in a Florida federal court, Capital One’s lawyers wrote that the bank’s own filings and the Trump businesses’ allegations “make clear that Capital One closed Plaintiffs’ accounts for anti-money laundering (’AML’) reasons.”
Stood on an interstate highway overpass bridge on a Main Street and held a sign reading, “VOTE - Early - Use a ballot box- Talk about voting with everyone!”
Talked to a friends who waited until yesterday to drop off ballots and they said there were lines at the drop boxes!
The El-Sayed -- Rogers poll numbers look better than previous ones I saw. If I am remembering correctly. Maybe enthusiasm will get us over the top if people come together behind whoever wins the primary. Fingers crossed.
I'm really hoping pollsters are erring on the conservative side of not figuring in voter enthusiasm. It seems like a natural thing people might do to not get too far out over their skis. Maybe the already positive numbers are underestimating how well we will do. If trends in the past I've noticed hold true, in change elections the party viewed as the agents of change tend to pick up late support.
Postcarding. Voted early (first day!) in the FL primary election. Jolly + Vindman, plus local candidates I like. It is a closed primary in FL.
If El-Sayed wins tonight he will be the only battleground Senate candidate this cycle to have trailed consistently in general election polls. It may very well be that he things improve if he wins but as of right now he has had the weakest general election polling of any Dem Senate candidate in raw head to head polling with their Republican opponent. No other candidate has trailed consistently, over a series of polls.
Simon, a couple quick questions/points here. It does seem as though the momentum is on El-Sayed’s side. That said, do you have any insight as to potential voter turnout for Stevens that’s been untapped by pollsters/pundits (like the older black community who seems to be supporting her). I can’t shake the feeling that Whitmer has some calculations behind the scenes as it concerns data we may not yet know. Otherwise, I’m not sure I’d foresee her having taken the gamble to endorse anyone before the primary. There often seems to be many undecided voters in MI up til Election Day cuz it’s not a naturally heavy ‘poll participating’ state. They often come across discrete that way.
My point was in asking if we think there’s other data we haven’t been privy to that would have motivated Whitmer to endorse before the primary. The media and partisan polling makes it seem as though Sayed wins tonight but one, I agree with Simon that this will be closer race than presented and two, I’m wondering if for lack of a better phrase…there’s something Whitmer knows that we don’t as it relates to Stevens’ chances.
I want the candidate who can win in November period! If that means they take AIPAC money, then so be it. Doesn’t directly affect us anyway as our own democracy is on life support. It won’t matter if Sayed is ‘the better candidate’ if we don’t win the senate back. I’m not saying he can’t win the general. One never truly knows these days and so God willing he does if he wins tonight. What I do know is that he’s gonna have a lot of work to do if he wins tonight.
That’s gonna start with him having to make AIPAC/Israel a third rail issue again, especially for his general. Why? When facing an affordability crisis, the inability to meet needs with gas, and worrying about preserving our own democracy…Independent voters in MI are barely gonna give two shits about foreign affairs. That is the stark reality each of the candidates who rely have relied on the Israel/Gaza conflict will have to face.
Hence why I continue to say that this issue cannot become our party’ litmus test! Yes, it will help if Netanyahu gets ousted in Oct and God willing he does! But both Simon and I have pointed out before on several occasions, the Jewish Democratic voters are beginning to feel alienated due to the convoluted messaging surrounding this topic. Here’s a hint…they all hate Netanyahu too, and rightly so! But if the question of Israel’ existence becomes mainstream in the party (God forbid), then we can kiss our future electoral chances goodbye.
Nihilism towards Israel is and will come across as Antisemitic to the vast majority of the electorate (all sides alike). Were we to have these same attitudes towards Gaza (which many in the GOP do) that is/would be Islamophobia at its height. Gotta have full perspective on this. The line in the sand had NOT been effectively drawn on this issue and sorry, but it’s not just the media’ fault for fomenting that divide. It’s both party’s faults too for not being concise enough. We know we haven’t found the middle ground yet cuz it’s still a controversial issue to the point where it’s jeopardizing our chances when we have the winds at our back.
One starts talking out of both sides of their mouths, saying I love the Jews and Judaism but Israel doesn’t have the right to exist…that’s gaslighting all of our Jewish Democratic voters, and furthermore, gaslighting Jewish people all around. Partly why I was so enraged by Hasan Piker’ past comments when he said “Hamas over Israel any day!” Really? We’re now downplaying one tragedy over another to make a point? That statement doesn’t ring Antisemitic to anyone? Could you imagine the outcry if we were all saying this about Gaza? The alienation Muslim voters would feel?
What happened to NOT pitting Jews and Muslims against each other? What happened to desiring a two state solution? Bottom line, I feel we’ve gotta focus on affordability, democracy, corruption, when it comes to messaging. If anything concerning the international landscape…hit on the war in Iran! Hit on Ukraine (the hell happened to our passion there)?!? That in my view, is the global issue of our time. Per the Middle East, the focus should be solely on Bibi and his government, not Israel as a whole. How about Hamas? Did we forget they’re a terrorist group who committed atrocities on Oct 7 and who wake every day with one goal…to kill the Jews?
Priorities, full perspective, and pragmatism. That’s how we win!
I won't have time to respond to the details of which you write right now, will later, but imo the issue is raised only to divide us and defeat real democrats, that's why I recommend people who want to engage the issue spend time reading history or join an in person interfaith dialog group and discuss with neighbors. We must focus on the election at hand. my feeling about AES is he cannot win, we have no indication he can get a majority. If that changes, so beit. my personal response is put my time and money where it can make a difference - another race. Let's see how Kansas and Miss are shaping up and what about SC?! will wait for Simon's recommendations, but I like one of the KS candidates - it's a good cycle for us,
There was a fairly recent poll I believe, more independent, that still showed Stevens with a small lead. I asked Rick Wilson about this over the weekend and he pointed that out too. I don't have the reference for it unfortunately. I think we really don't know what will happen today. The die is cast at any rate.
If El-Sayed wins, it's "Vote Blue No Matter Who!" But there's no escaping the fact that he is a high risk candidate for a critical race, as evidenced by his performing below the likely Republican nominee, as well as the generic Dem ballot, the partisan lean of the state, and popular Democrats within the state.
Thank you Simon! Very encouraging data. Good luck in these upcoming races. Let us ignore the ‘noise’ that will be generated around some of these races (MI in particular) and focus on the big picture of winning regardless of who wins the primary tonight. Furthermore Simon, per the data you provided, I sincerely hope Peltola closes that gap with Sullivan soon and surpasses him. In my view, she’s one of our strongest candidates running period. Would be icing on the cake to see the first Female Native American Senator. Per our community…here’s to hoping ✌️🙏💕.
Left a voicemail with comments to John Cornyn on the list of the day. He is such a disappointment and as big a crook as any of them. He just covers it up more. Anyone still backing the Trump agenda at this point is as corrupt as they come.
Apologies to all for changing the subject as I know there are many urgent issues afloat today that Simon has outlined above. But the treatment of Dr Fauci by Republican politicians and pundits makes my blood boil. And giving me even more agita is the lack of Democratic pushback on their bullshit. A lifelong public servant who has counseled multiple presidents on all pandemic-related issues for the last 4-5 decades is being threatened with jailtime and physical harm by publicity-seeking spineless Rs and their lemmings. Why isn't this the perfect opportunity to defend Fauci and relitigate the totally political Trump response to COVID that caused tens of thousands of needless deaths?
I'm looking forward to the day coming soon when Raskin, Whitehouse, Booker, Schiff, Warren, Garcia, and so many other fiery Dems are chairing their committees, using their subpoena power, and actually kicking MAGA butt. We owe them a debt of thanks for helping us weather these two years of hell, and for pledging accountability in '27 and beyond. Major thanks to Marc Elias, Skye Perryman, and so many others who have kept fighting for us through this ugly time when the courts were literally our only source of justice. Finally, let's fix the Supreme Court immediately when we have the power to do so.
Unfortunately, Waldman was either sloppy or disingenuous in his research. Consider this section:
"Centrist pundit Van Jones deployed the Republican strawman tactic of attacking an imaginary DSA candidate in a viral post on X, writing that 'Supporting Hamas is not progressive. ‘No police, no prisons, no borders’ is not progressive.'
Which Democratic candidate for office supports Hamas or says they want to eradicate police, prisons, and borders? Jones didn’t say, because none of them do."
In fact, DSA candidate and primary winner Darializa Avila Chevalier attended a rally on October 8th, 2023, right after the October 7 attacks, when Hamas was still uploading videos of themselves killing civilians, where themes were "Resistance is justified when people are occupied" were center stage. The DSA initially promoted the rally, but on October 10th backed away from it, issuing a statement that began with "NYC-DSA believes in peace, equality, and freedom for all Palestinians and Israelis. We deeply mourn the loss of life in the region and unequivocally condemn all hatred and the killing of all civilians. Our sympathy and condolences go out to those who have lost loved ones or have loved ones in harm’s way."
Chevalier, however, has not walked back her presence at the rally. Furthermore, she opposes the two states solution and wants Israel to be absorbed as Greater Palestine.
As for "no Police, no prisons, and no borders" those are from the official DSA platform and have been for years. National DSA co-chair Megan Romer even went on Fox News to affirmatively state those were the DSA's positions (Fox and the rest of the reich wing are running wild with the video).
Lastly, the real concern is that in purple states, the fact these candidates are already trailing Republicans in purple states, as well as underperforming relative to other state wide Dem candidates, the generic ballot, and the partisan lean of the state, these candidates losing could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Consider that to get a "Fetterman proof" margin in the Senate, we'd need to win 52 seats. But if Sayed loses, that becomes nearly impossible. And that means Dems lose the ability to control the senate and critically, block Trump appointments to SCOTUS.
Or with Hong in Wisconsin, if she loses, a Republican Governor will be in during the 2028 election and during the 2030 census. Wisconsin Dems have been working for more than a decade to undo Republican gerrymandering of the state, and Hong losing might mean Republicans regain a massive partisan advantage, with the next opportunity to undo it all not being until 2042.
So they've managed to win some Democratic primaries, but their ability to win elections in purple states during general elections is unknown, and the stakes are massive.
yup. and you can't talk to their supporters about it either. it reminds me of another group i dealt with who made me talk to the hand. i'll just leave it there.
Agree! And his post today shows significant softening of R support for Trump and R candidates on the generic ballot, as well as big-time flight of true Independents away from voting for Rs in November. A double whammy, which is then tripled by higher degrees of voting enthusiasm by Ds.
what a refreshing piece, thank you vincent. it should be posted over at some other sites where the dem bashing is out of control. how quickly we forget...
Perhaps after the primaries are over, and assuming the polls showing the "New Left" candidates like Hong and El-Sayed winning are accurate, perhaps you could invite them to speak to the Hopium community. Not just because the races are important, but to give them an opportunity to address what has kept lots of people wary about them as candidates. A question along the line of:
"We like many of the progressive goals such as universal healthcare, universal childcare, taxing the rich, but we are concerned by the DSA and the number of candidates on the "New Left" that by historic standards, are incredibly high risk. Candidates that have made unforced errors, were either not vetted or were vetted but red flags were ignored, or align themselves with platforms that include broadly unpopular positions such as abolishing prisons, open borders, and unilaterally lifting sanctions on countries like Iran.
Those may not stop a candidate from winning a primary, but for state wide races in purple states, our fear is that Republicans will be able to make those the defining characteristics of the candidates by carpet bombing the elections with dark money influence.
What is your plan for assembling a broad, state wide coalition of not just democrats, but undecided independent voters and the 20% of Republican voters who are rejecting MAGA? Because our fear is that 2026 and 2028 present once in a generation, even once in a lifetime opportunity to enact the broadly popular progressive goals and to bring about a new birth of freedom, and just a few losses in purple states could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
Certainly you could create a better question (or questions) along those lines. But if the New Left can show it takes these issues seriously and will work to build winning coalitions over maintaining strict ideological purity, that would go a long way towards patching things up within the family.
I am very unlikely to recommend to this community any candidate with strong DSA affiliation in a battleground election against a Republican for I don't know how they can possibly win given the extremism and lunacy of the DSA. I will remain open to it but we have a lot of other great candidates to help get elected who have been both vetted and lack the weighty baggage that a DSA affiliation brings.
I don't have high hopes for them either. In the general it will be "Vote Blue No Matter Who," but if/when they lose, my hope is other progressive groups like Invidisible would oppose DSA candidates in the 2028 primaries.
Some of their really engaged supporters can be hard to reason with. I know some who are quite intelligent but almost unreachable. In a primary they need to keep those people engaged.
I think the sign I'd like to see with El-Sayed and others is that they can run towards the center in the general election and as you say form a coalition. We'll see (if he wins) how he treats the general election.
I watched the "Corrupt Committee Vote" which looks like Todd Blanche may get confirmed, but I was very Proud of what Senators Corey Booker and Sheldon Whitehouse had to say. They were both so angry and they should be! And Cornyn should be ashamed to say "He couldn't do anything about the women and the Epstein Files" And the most horrible words out of Todd Blanche's mouth were He and President Trump will get permanent solutions so that "the Dobbs decision becomes permanent in every single State"
Anyway, everything looks great with the Polls Simon. All going our way!
My stomach turned. I knew it would. I knew this would happen, but I guess a part of me, some secret corner, wondered if anyone in the Republican Party threw up in their mouths just a little bit when they looked at themselves in the mirror or hugged/kissed their kids/grandkids and would pay attention.
What will be interesting to watch from here is Susan-Concerned-Enough-To-Look-Into-It-Collins.
And... perhaps it's magical thinking on my part, but I revert back to my fantasy that Tillis and Cornyn did enough to salvage a future for themselves, but know that by advancing the AG nom, if the Dems regain control, Blanche will live out a Shakespearean tragedy and all they did was give him and Trump what they wanted.
Simon: might you be able to explain what’s in it for Tillis and Cornyn to fold like they did? Is it preserving future lobbying opportunities? Relevance? They’ve already lost their seats.
It’s beyond clear how corrupt Trump is, but as he has said himself, he learned there are no consequences for being so. As perverse as that sentiment is, the ultimate responsibility seems to rest elsewhere.
If, as I suspect, the GOP is all in on the grift, shouldn’t we be expanding our ire directly at the enablers, here Tillis and Cornyn?
I will call Booker and Kim. Since I know they will vote properly I am going to encourage them to continue to use their outrage to run against the GOP, eg create clips to benefit Talarico, Jackson, Peltola, etc.
All I can think of is lobbying and board of directors seats on corporations. Maybe they think they could get big jobs in a Rubio administration. I mean, they sold their souls long ago.
Testing.....
Received.
1 2 3 !
I made my calls this morning.
Today is primary day in Washington State, as well as other States. Some things I'm tracking here: the primary for the open state senate seat in the 42nd LD; the primary in Washington's 2nd and 3rd Congressional districts; my own PCO race against a young DSA activist.
This morning the sky is grey, and we'll be moving into "moderate" smokiness.
Good luck, David!
I am drafting my early-week message to my elected officials (all Dems): I hope there's a comprehensive list of Republican on-the-record responses to the disclosure that this WH extended crime family withheld $ from states that didn't capitulate by voting for them.
I'm wishing you safety and federal help if you need it.
Hi David, what is PCO?
PCO stands for precinct committee officer. They represent a neighborhood for the Democratic or Republican party. In Washington State, a precinct can have both a Republican and a Democratic PCO. By law, no other party can elect a PCO. So there are no DSA PCOs.
My opponent is running as a Democrat, even though she is a local DSA Vice-Chair. She is also a paid field organizer for the Democrats in the 42nd state legislative district.
The Democratic Party of our County has something similar. Thanks for the exolanation. Good luck today!
ANYONE WANNA BET? Trumps money-laundering "crimes" cited by Capital One's are related to EPSTEIN FILES? Follow the money!
In a motion to dismiss the case filed Friday in a Florida federal court, Capital One’s lawyers wrote that the bank’s own filings and the Trump businesses’ allegations “make clear that Capital One closed Plaintiffs’ accounts for anti-money laundering (’AML’) reasons.”
Stood on an interstate highway overpass bridge on a Main Street and held a sign reading, “VOTE - Early - Use a ballot box- Talk about voting with everyone!”
Talked to a friends who waited until yesterday to drop off ballots and they said there were lines at the drop boxes!
Yeah! and they voted! magic!
The El-Sayed -- Rogers poll numbers look better than previous ones I saw. If I am remembering correctly. Maybe enthusiasm will get us over the top if people come together behind whoever wins the primary. Fingers crossed.
I'm really hoping pollsters are erring on the conservative side of not figuring in voter enthusiasm. It seems like a natural thing people might do to not get too far out over their skis. Maybe the already positive numbers are underestimating how well we will do. If trends in the past I've noticed hold true, in change elections the party viewed as the agents of change tend to pick up late support.
Postcarding. Voted early (first day!) in the FL primary election. Jolly + Vindman, plus local candidates I like. It is a closed primary in FL.
If El-Sayed wins tonight he will be the only battleground Senate candidate this cycle to have trailed consistently in general election polls. It may very well be that he things improve if he wins but as of right now he has had the weakest general election polling of any Dem Senate candidate in raw head to head polling with their Republican opponent. No other candidate has trailed consistently, over a series of polls.
I agree. If I lived in MI I would vote Stevens. But if El-Sayed wins so be it, and I hope he wins the general election.
Simon, a couple quick questions/points here. It does seem as though the momentum is on El-Sayed’s side. That said, do you have any insight as to potential voter turnout for Stevens that’s been untapped by pollsters/pundits (like the older black community who seems to be supporting her). I can’t shake the feeling that Whitmer has some calculations behind the scenes as it concerns data we may not yet know. Otherwise, I’m not sure I’d foresee her having taken the gamble to endorse anyone before the primary. There often seems to be many undecided voters in MI up til Election Day cuz it’s not a naturally heavy ‘poll participating’ state. They often come across discrete that way.
what is the evidence for that? Simon discussed the polling situation in the comments yesterday and also note his comment upthread
My point was in asking if we think there’s other data we haven’t been privy to that would have motivated Whitmer to endorse before the primary. The media and partisan polling makes it seem as though Sayed wins tonight but one, I agree with Simon that this will be closer race than presented and two, I’m wondering if for lack of a better phrase…there’s something Whitmer knows that we don’t as it relates to Stevens’ chances.
I want the candidate who can win in November period! If that means they take AIPAC money, then so be it. Doesn’t directly affect us anyway as our own democracy is on life support. It won’t matter if Sayed is ‘the better candidate’ if we don’t win the senate back. I’m not saying he can’t win the general. One never truly knows these days and so God willing he does if he wins tonight. What I do know is that he’s gonna have a lot of work to do if he wins tonight.
That’s gonna start with him having to make AIPAC/Israel a third rail issue again, especially for his general. Why? When facing an affordability crisis, the inability to meet needs with gas, and worrying about preserving our own democracy…Independent voters in MI are barely gonna give two shits about foreign affairs. That is the stark reality each of the candidates who rely have relied on the Israel/Gaza conflict will have to face.
Hence why I continue to say that this issue cannot become our party’ litmus test! Yes, it will help if Netanyahu gets ousted in Oct and God willing he does! But both Simon and I have pointed out before on several occasions, the Jewish Democratic voters are beginning to feel alienated due to the convoluted messaging surrounding this topic. Here’s a hint…they all hate Netanyahu too, and rightly so! But if the question of Israel’ existence becomes mainstream in the party (God forbid), then we can kiss our future electoral chances goodbye.
Nihilism towards Israel is and will come across as Antisemitic to the vast majority of the electorate (all sides alike). Were we to have these same attitudes towards Gaza (which many in the GOP do) that is/would be Islamophobia at its height. Gotta have full perspective on this. The line in the sand had NOT been effectively drawn on this issue and sorry, but it’s not just the media’ fault for fomenting that divide. It’s both party’s faults too for not being concise enough. We know we haven’t found the middle ground yet cuz it’s still a controversial issue to the point where it’s jeopardizing our chances when we have the winds at our back.
One starts talking out of both sides of their mouths, saying I love the Jews and Judaism but Israel doesn’t have the right to exist…that’s gaslighting all of our Jewish Democratic voters, and furthermore, gaslighting Jewish people all around. Partly why I was so enraged by Hasan Piker’ past comments when he said “Hamas over Israel any day!” Really? We’re now downplaying one tragedy over another to make a point? That statement doesn’t ring Antisemitic to anyone? Could you imagine the outcry if we were all saying this about Gaza? The alienation Muslim voters would feel?
What happened to NOT pitting Jews and Muslims against each other? What happened to desiring a two state solution? Bottom line, I feel we’ve gotta focus on affordability, democracy, corruption, when it comes to messaging. If anything concerning the international landscape…hit on the war in Iran! Hit on Ukraine (the hell happened to our passion there)?!? That in my view, is the global issue of our time. Per the Middle East, the focus should be solely on Bibi and his government, not Israel as a whole. How about Hamas? Did we forget they’re a terrorist group who committed atrocities on Oct 7 and who wake every day with one goal…to kill the Jews?
Priorities, full perspective, and pragmatism. That’s how we win!
I won't have time to respond to the details of which you write right now, will later, but imo the issue is raised only to divide us and defeat real democrats, that's why I recommend people who want to engage the issue spend time reading history or join an in person interfaith dialog group and discuss with neighbors. We must focus on the election at hand. my feeling about AES is he cannot win, we have no indication he can get a majority. If that changes, so beit. my personal response is put my time and money where it can make a difference - another race. Let's see how Kansas and Miss are shaping up and what about SC?! will wait for Simon's recommendations, but I like one of the KS candidates - it's a good cycle for us,
Simon wrote about the use of misleading polling yesterday, just asking if there's other evidence for momentum on AES side
There was a fairly recent poll I believe, more independent, that still showed Stevens with a small lead. I asked Rick Wilson about this over the weekend and he pointed that out too. I don't have the reference for it unfortunately. I think we really don't know what will happen today. The die is cast at any rate.
Yesterday, Josh Marshall wrote about the race and mentioned that the Republican Rogers has weaknesses, noting he lost to Slotkin in 2024 when the state went R in the presidential election. In case of interest: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/el-sayed-looks-set-to-trounce-stevens
I don’t know if he takes the partisan polling Simon has written about into account.
If El-Sayed wins, it's "Vote Blue No Matter Who!" But there's no escaping the fact that he is a high risk candidate for a critical race, as evidenced by his performing below the likely Republican nominee, as well as the generic Dem ballot, the partisan lean of the state, and popular Democrats within the state.
Thank you Simon! Very encouraging data. Good luck in these upcoming races. Let us ignore the ‘noise’ that will be generated around some of these races (MI in particular) and focus on the big picture of winning regardless of who wins the primary tonight. Furthermore Simon, per the data you provided, I sincerely hope Peltola closes that gap with Sullivan soon and surpasses him. In my view, she’s one of our strongest candidates running period. Would be icing on the cake to see the first Female Native American Senator. Per our community…here’s to hoping ✌️🙏💕.
Left a voicemail with comments to John Cornyn on the list of the day. He is such a disappointment and as big a crook as any of them. He just covers it up more. Anyone still backing the Trump agenda at this point is as corrupt as they come.
And to think he was once a judge on TX Supreme Ct. UGH.
Apologies to all for changing the subject as I know there are many urgent issues afloat today that Simon has outlined above. But the treatment of Dr Fauci by Republican politicians and pundits makes my blood boil. And giving me even more agita is the lack of Democratic pushback on their bullshit. A lifelong public servant who has counseled multiple presidents on all pandemic-related issues for the last 4-5 decades is being threatened with jailtime and physical harm by publicity-seeking spineless Rs and their lemmings. Why isn't this the perfect opportunity to defend Fauci and relitigate the totally political Trump response to COVID that caused tens of thousands of needless deaths?
Gene the Dem Senators at the hearing pushed back really hard. The constant refrain of WHY AREN'T DEMS DOING ANYTHING has become tiresome.....
I'm looking forward to the day coming soon when Raskin, Whitehouse, Booker, Schiff, Warren, Garcia, and so many other fiery Dems are chairing their committees, using their subpoena power, and actually kicking MAGA butt. We owe them a debt of thanks for helping us weather these two years of hell, and for pledging accountability in '27 and beyond. Major thanks to Marc Elias, Skye Perryman, and so many others who have kept fighting for us through this ugly time when the courts were literally our only source of justice. Finally, let's fix the Supreme Court immediately when we have the power to do so.
Carry on, soldiers.
AGREE!!! Whitehouse gives me life.
Good Paul Waldman article today reinforcing that "fighters" are winning voters, despite whatever labels people try to slap on them.
https://www.publicnotice.co/p/moderate-democrats-2026?utm_source=substack&publication_id=501423&post_id=209633622&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&utm_campaign=email-share&triggerShare=true&isFreemail=false&r=1477w&triedRedirect=true
Unfortunately, Waldman was either sloppy or disingenuous in his research. Consider this section:
"Centrist pundit Van Jones deployed the Republican strawman tactic of attacking an imaginary DSA candidate in a viral post on X, writing that 'Supporting Hamas is not progressive. ‘No police, no prisons, no borders’ is not progressive.'
Which Democratic candidate for office supports Hamas or says they want to eradicate police, prisons, and borders? Jones didn’t say, because none of them do."
In fact, DSA candidate and primary winner Darializa Avila Chevalier attended a rally on October 8th, 2023, right after the October 7 attacks, when Hamas was still uploading videos of themselves killing civilians, where themes were "Resistance is justified when people are occupied" were center stage. The DSA initially promoted the rally, but on October 10th backed away from it, issuing a statement that began with "NYC-DSA believes in peace, equality, and freedom for all Palestinians and Israelis. We deeply mourn the loss of life in the region and unequivocally condemn all hatred and the killing of all civilians. Our sympathy and condolences go out to those who have lost loved ones or have loved ones in harm’s way."
Chevalier, however, has not walked back her presence at the rally. Furthermore, she opposes the two states solution and wants Israel to be absorbed as Greater Palestine.
As for "no Police, no prisons, and no borders" those are from the official DSA platform and have been for years. National DSA co-chair Megan Romer even went on Fox News to affirmatively state those were the DSA's positions (Fox and the rest of the reich wing are running wild with the video).
Lastly, the real concern is that in purple states, the fact these candidates are already trailing Republicans in purple states, as well as underperforming relative to other state wide Dem candidates, the generic ballot, and the partisan lean of the state, these candidates losing could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Consider that to get a "Fetterman proof" margin in the Senate, we'd need to win 52 seats. But if Sayed loses, that becomes nearly impossible. And that means Dems lose the ability to control the senate and critically, block Trump appointments to SCOTUS.
Or with Hong in Wisconsin, if she loses, a Republican Governor will be in during the 2028 election and during the 2030 census. Wisconsin Dems have been working for more than a decade to undo Republican gerrymandering of the state, and Hong losing might mean Republicans regain a massive partisan advantage, with the next opportunity to undo it all not being until 2042.
So they've managed to win some Democratic primaries, but their ability to win elections in purple states during general elections is unknown, and the stakes are massive.
yup. and you can't talk to their supporters about it either. it reminds me of another group i dealt with who made me talk to the hand. i'll just leave it there.
All Trump judges
More good news from G. Elliot Morris's forecast: he says Dems now have a better chance to win the House than they did at this point in 2018.
Agree! And his post today shows significant softening of R support for Trump and R candidates on the generic ballot, as well as big-time flight of true Independents away from voting for Rs in November. A double whammy, which is then tripled by higher degrees of voting enthusiasm by Ds.
Good to hear Simon. I wasn't privy to that effort. If you're satisfied with the pushback provided, I am as well.
Incredibly important piece by BIll Scher on base anger against the establishment
https://x.com/billscher/status/2084593897582239819
"Democratic Voters Are Boiling Mad at the Democratic Establishment, and It’s Ridiculous"
what a refreshing piece, thank you vincent. it should be posted over at some other sites where the dem bashing is out of control. how quickly we forget...
Perhaps after the primaries are over, and assuming the polls showing the "New Left" candidates like Hong and El-Sayed winning are accurate, perhaps you could invite them to speak to the Hopium community. Not just because the races are important, but to give them an opportunity to address what has kept lots of people wary about them as candidates. A question along the line of:
"We like many of the progressive goals such as universal healthcare, universal childcare, taxing the rich, but we are concerned by the DSA and the number of candidates on the "New Left" that by historic standards, are incredibly high risk. Candidates that have made unforced errors, were either not vetted or were vetted but red flags were ignored, or align themselves with platforms that include broadly unpopular positions such as abolishing prisons, open borders, and unilaterally lifting sanctions on countries like Iran.
Those may not stop a candidate from winning a primary, but for state wide races in purple states, our fear is that Republicans will be able to make those the defining characteristics of the candidates by carpet bombing the elections with dark money influence.
What is your plan for assembling a broad, state wide coalition of not just democrats, but undecided independent voters and the 20% of Republican voters who are rejecting MAGA? Because our fear is that 2026 and 2028 present once in a generation, even once in a lifetime opportunity to enact the broadly popular progressive goals and to bring about a new birth of freedom, and just a few losses in purple states could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
Certainly you could create a better question (or questions) along those lines. But if the New Left can show it takes these issues seriously and will work to build winning coalitions over maintaining strict ideological purity, that would go a long way towards patching things up within the family.
Very thoughtful post. Given what I've learned about DSA in recent weeks - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/notes-on-the-dsa?utm_source=publication-search
I am very unlikely to recommend to this community any candidate with strong DSA affiliation in a battleground election against a Republican for I don't know how they can possibly win given the extremism and lunacy of the DSA. I will remain open to it but we have a lot of other great candidates to help get elected who have been both vetted and lack the weighty baggage that a DSA affiliation brings.
I don't have high hopes for them either. In the general it will be "Vote Blue No Matter Who," but if/when they lose, my hope is other progressive groups like Invidisible would oppose DSA candidates in the 2028 primaries.
Some of their really engaged supporters can be hard to reason with. I know some who are quite intelligent but almost unreachable. In a primary they need to keep those people engaged.
I think the sign I'd like to see with El-Sayed and others is that they can run towards the center in the general election and as you say form a coalition. We'll see (if he wins) how he treats the general election.
I watched the "Corrupt Committee Vote" which looks like Todd Blanche may get confirmed, but I was very Proud of what Senators Corey Booker and Sheldon Whitehouse had to say. They were both so angry and they should be! And Cornyn should be ashamed to say "He couldn't do anything about the women and the Epstein Files" And the most horrible words out of Todd Blanche's mouth were He and President Trump will get permanent solutions so that "the Dobbs decision becomes permanent in every single State"
Anyway, everything looks great with the Polls Simon. All going our way!
And all the important calls were made!
Great. I have been calling Sen. Booker on this for a long time. Not that I ever doubted his stance, but I love it when he brings the dagger eyes.
My stomach turned. I knew it would. I knew this would happen, but I guess a part of me, some secret corner, wondered if anyone in the Republican Party threw up in their mouths just a little bit when they looked at themselves in the mirror or hugged/kissed their kids/grandkids and would pay attention.
What will be interesting to watch from here is Susan-Concerned-Enough-To-Look-Into-It-Collins.
And... perhaps it's magical thinking on my part, but I revert back to my fantasy that Tillis and Cornyn did enough to salvage a future for themselves, but know that by advancing the AG nom, if the Dems regain control, Blanche will live out a Shakespearean tragedy and all they did was give him and Trump what they wanted.
Simon: might you be able to explain what’s in it for Tillis and Cornyn to fold like they did? Is it preserving future lobbying opportunities? Relevance? They’ve already lost their seats.
It’s beyond clear how corrupt Trump is, but as he has said himself, he learned there are no consequences for being so. As perverse as that sentiment is, the ultimate responsibility seems to rest elsewhere.
If, as I suspect, the GOP is all in on the grift, shouldn’t we be expanding our ire directly at the enablers, here Tillis and Cornyn?
I will call Booker and Kim. Since I know they will vote properly I am going to encourage them to continue to use their outrage to run against the GOP, eg create clips to benefit Talarico, Jackson, Peltola, etc.
LOBBYING. They get lifetime access to the Senate floor. Lawrence did a great segment on that last night. UGH.
All I can think of is lobbying and board of directors seats on corporations. Maybe they think they could get big jobs in a Rubio administration. I mean, they sold their souls long ago.