Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Time to End The GOP's Traitorous Disabling Of The US Government
Good News From Poland. With Dems Thursday. Strong Biden Fundraising Numbers
Friends, going to be another intense week here in DC, so let’s get going:
A Big Win for Liberal Democracy in Poland - From the NYT this morning, Centrists Parties Poised To Oust Poland’s Nationalist Government
Centrist and progressive forces appeared capable of forming a new government in Poland after securing more seats in a critical general election on Sunday, despite the governing nationalist party, Law and Justice, winning the most votes for a single party.
Exit polls showing a strong second place finish by the main opposition group, Civic Coalition, and better than expected results for two smaller centrist and progressive parties suggested a dramatic upset that would frustrate the governing party’s hope of an unprecedented third consecutive term.
A jubilant Donald Tusk, Civic Coalition’s leader, declared the projected results a resounding “win for democracy” that would end the tenure of Law and Justice, known by its Polish acronym PiS, in power since 2015.
“We did it! We really did!” Mr. Tusk, a former prime minister, told supporters Sunday night. “This is the end of this bad time! This is the end of PiS rule!”
Przemyslaw Adynowski, a Warsaw lawyer, said he had voted for Civic Coalition in what he described as “probably the most important election in 30 years.” A victory for Law and Justice, he added, would complete Poland’s “phase of transition from democracy to an authoritarian system” and put it at odds with its allies in NATO and the European Union, except for Hungary, a much smaller nation with little clout.
Piotr Buras, the head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, declared the election “a triumph of both democracy and liberalism” that “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy.”
High turnout. Strong performance among young people. Rejection of virulently anti-immigrant politics and illiberalism. Strong, durable coalition of liberals and progressives. A big win for pro-democracy forces in a pivotal European country.
Strong q3 Biden Fundraising: The Democratic Party Is Strong - Here’s a graphic released by the campaign yesterday:
“It was a spectacular quarter,” said Jeffrey Katzenberg, the Hollywood mogul whom Mr. Biden named a co-chairman of his campaign, said in an interview…The fact that we’re sitting with $91 million in the bank today is really an extraordinary advantage.” (Link)
Upcoming Events/New Videos - we have three events now on the books, with more in the works:
Thurs, Oct 26th, 7pm EST - Monthly Get Together with Hopium Chronicles Paid Subscribers. More info soon.
Tues, November 28th, 7pm ET - Simon hosts Anderson Clayton, the exciting new chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. More info soon.
The Election Data I Am Most Interested In Right Now - (Link)
The Democratic Party Is Strong and On A Very Good Popular Vote Run - Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency. Can we improve on that performance and get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
A reminder that Democrats only broke above 50.1% of the vote once from 1948 all the way to 2004 - 1964, the year after JFK’s assassination. So, that we’ve broken above 51% in 3 of our last 4 elections is a pretty remarkable electoral achievement.
2008 52.9-47.5 Obama-McCain
2012 51.1-47.2 Obama-Romney
2020 51.3-46.8 Biden-Trump
Democrats Keep Outperforming Expectations - In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we didn’t.
We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH and WI and in special elections across the US. A new 538 analysis: Democrats have been wining big in special elections finds Dems outperforming the partisan lean in districts this year by an average of 10 points in close to 40 special elections across the US - this is a big deal, and similar to what we saw post-Dobbs last year. The Daily Kos special election tracker now has Dems up 7.6 points over 2020 in 27 elections this year. Very encouraging stuff.
The Blueing of the Southwest - Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR. Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there. Our success with Hispanic voters and in heavily Hispanic parts of the country remains one of the Democratic Party’s most successful party-wide efforts over the past generation of US politics.
Republicans Betray the County, Again - In a time of the most significant land war in Europe since WWII, and devastating violence and escalating tensions in the Middle East, three Republicans - Sen. Tuberville, Sen. Paul, Rep. Gaetz - are actively disabling essential security elements of the US government. Tuberville is blocking over 300 senior military appointments; Paul is blocking over 60 State Department nominations, including 38 Ambassadorships, many in the Middle East; Gaetz blocked the passage of all the proposed continuing resolutions needed to keep the government open, then removed the Speaker after he threw his lot in with the Democrats and is now working very hard to prevent any one other than insurrection Jim Jordan from becoming Speaker - essentially disabling the House of Representatives for what could be an extended period of time.
All three of these Republicans have been among the most outspoken critics of our support of Ukraine. Two - Gaetz and Tuberville - are among Trump’s closest allies. Their assault on the US government is unprecedented; their very public Russian sympathies worrisome; their lack of patriotism and love of country is unacceptable and swiftly becoming traitorous. If Republicans don’t start working hard, in a very public fashion, to break through these blockades and give the President and the Congress the tools we need to protect ourselves and our allies abroad, then the whole party, once again, will become complicit in a truly outrageous betrayal of our national interest.
Think of what the Rs have done in recent years:
Stole a Supreme Court seat, then jammed through two nominations which violated the new McConnell “no appointments in election years” rule
Scuttled a legitimate Senate Impeachment trial, which would have allowed the public to learn much more Trump’s shake down of Zelenskyy and his rancid relationship with Putin
Taken billions of dollars of direct payments from foreign governments
Executed what will become known as the greatest and most dangerous security breach in US history (Trump’s theft of documents)
Turned many states into “laboratories of autocracy” including NC, OH, WI
Waged a comprehensive and shockingly successful effort to strip essential rights, widely available throughout the developed world, from Americans
Allowed the Supreme Court to become a corrupt institution, and is fighting simple reforms that apply to all other judges and government officials
Lead a party wide effort involving Republican leaders from across the country to overturn a Presidential election and end American democracy
And now all this new traitorous horseshit with Tuberville, Paul and Gaetz.
A few weeks ago the President gave an important speech warning the American people about what a clear and present danger the Republican Party has become to liberal democracy here and everywhere. I wrote last week about how it may be time to start thinking of parts of the GOP as a fifth column for a foreign power, Russia (who are allied of course with Iran, North Korea, Hamas and Hizbollah). We have to be clear-eyed here about what has happened to the GOP and the threat it has become.
The GOP’s ongoing and very public betrayal of America is weakening this great country, emboldening our adversaries and making the world less safe. Let’s make the case for the gravity of this betrayal this week, and work together to end this blockade and give the President the tools he needs to advance our interests in a time of enormous challenge.
Keep working hard all - Simon