Discover more from Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg
Tom Bonier Joins Us Wednesday to Talk Polling, Data and Strong Dem Performance Since Dobbs
Excited to Get The Band Back Together - RSVP Today!
Friends, a few things today:
Wed, Oct 11th, 7pm ET - Tom Bonier Joins Hopium For A Deep Dive On Polling, Election Data, and Our Strong Dem Performance Since Dobbs - We have an exciting event next week - my good friend and data guru Tom Bonier will be joining us for an in-depth discussion about our ongoing strong Dem performance since Dobbs, and what it might mean for 2024. We will also be talking about what we are seeing now in Virginia and the other elections coming up this November.
It’s been a year or so since Tom and I collaborated to correctly call bulls—t on the red wave, and I thought it would be a good time for us to get together and reflect what we’ve seen since. I always learn when I talk to Tom and I am sure you will too.
So RSVP here for what will be a great discussion on Wednesday one I am really looking forward to. A recording will be on the site soon after for those who can’t make it live. And feel free to invite others. This event will be a great way to introduce new people to our work here at Hopium. Here’s my favorite photo of Tom:
If you want to prep a bit for the discussion, I send a long a few things
Some Notes on Current Polling and Political Data (Asymmetrical Engagement)
Here’s the electoral data I’m most interested in right now:
The Democratic Party Is Strong and On A Very Good Popular Vote Run - Democrats have won more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of any political party in US history. In the last 4 Presidential elections, Democrats have averaged 51% of the vote, our best showing over 4 elections since FDR’s Presidency. Can we improve on that performance and get to 55% nationally in 2024? I think so.
Democrats Keep Outperforming Expectations - In a “red wave” year, 2022, Democrats gained ground from 2020 in 7 key battlegrounds: AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH, PA. We also picked up 4 state legislative chambers, 2 governorships, and 1 US Senate seat. As we’ve written 2022 was not a single nationalized election, but really two elections - a bluer election in the battleground where we gained, and a redder election outside where we did not. We’ve seen this strong Dem performance continue into 2023 with impressive wins in CO, FL, OH and WI and in special elections across the US. A new 538 analysis: Democrats have been wining big in special elections finds Dems outperforming the partisan lean in districts this year by an average of 10 points in close to 40 special elections across the US - this is a big deal, and similar to what we saw post-Dobbs last year. The Daily Kos special election tracker now has Dems up 7.6 points over 2020 in 27 elections this year. Very encouraging stuff.
The Blueing of the Southwest - Democrats are having their best run in the Southwest since the 1940s and 50s. In 2004 Bush won AZ, CO, NM, NV, Rs controlled 5 of their 8 Senate seats, 14 of their 21 House seats. In 2020 Biden was the first Democratic President to win all 4 of these states in a single election since FDR. Today Rs control none of those 8 Senate seats and we control 14 of 24 House seats there. Our success with Hispanic voters and in heavily Hispanic parts of the country remains one of the Democratic Party’s most successful party-wide efforts over the past generation of US politics.
Keep working hard all, and see you Wednesday! Simon