Absolutely. Hopium has taught me that the worst thing one can do is let high stakes paralyze oneself. What matters is what happens on the ground and together we collectively have more control over that than we think! Already got postcards & I'm ready for letter writing !
As always happy to be a part of this ! Just watched the clip of your Lawrence O'Donnell interview - like this newsletter insightful as always ! Thank you for teaching me to not let junk polling/headlines get to me!
Great news out of Florida, of all places! Solid, nose-to-the-grindstone, no-nonsense steadiness characterizes Dem performance -- and your leadership, Simon. Thanks again for HOPE. Well done.
Simon I love how you repeat the data over and over, each time adding a little bit of new info. Repetition is key and we all need to internalize the narrative first if we have any chance of spreading it to the voters.
The mainstream “liberal” media, with a few exceptions like Lawrence O’Donnell, is again miserably failing our democracy with its simple minded groupthink coverage. Matt Robeson and Paul Hodes had an even more in depth conversation than Mr. O’Donnell’s and Mr. Rosenberg’s above analyzing what the Iowa results really tell us about Trump’s strength and how the mainstream media completely ignored these alternate, valid interpretations.
Matt Robeson has also written about this in Newsweek:
“No, Trump Did Not 'Conquer Iowa.'
How the Media Botched Election Coverage—Again “
Robeson also points out that 62% of the Iowa caucus voters said they would find Trump fit for office even if convicted and 32% said they would not. His take:
“ So, one-third of the country's most dedicated core of Republican base voters say that they will abandon Trump if he loses any of these cases, a breathtaking vulnerability for a candidate. And this nugget is not only buried inside an article about his political strength titled "Trump trounces in Iowa," but is also constructed so as to suggest that this is a sign of how devoted his support is?”
Robeson also points out that the voters who did turn out are the most MAGA voters, a fact which the caucus entrance polls made clear, yet Trump only got 51% of their votes. Almost half of those voters wanted someone else but the mainstream media chose to frame framed results as a huge victory for Trump. That is blatant media malpractice — as is treating the deeply undemocratic caucus results as massively important and representative of what the majority of voters want.
Robeson puts the results in perspective with this thought experiment:
“What if Joe Biden had gotten only half the votes of caucus-goers in Iowa. What would the headlines say? "Commanding victory"? Not on your life. How about a million thesaurus searches for variations on "Biden stumbles?" “
Robison followed his thought experiment with a couple of alternative, far more accurate, headlines:
“Trump Falters As Half of Republicans Turn Against Him" and
“Questions Fly as Trump Barely Clears 50 Percent in Iowa?"
Contrary to what journalists repeatedly proclaim, mainstream media coverage does a lot to bias the public’s perception of reality and to shape our elections.
I attended the virtual letter-writing party for Tom Suozzi last night. If you have written Vote Forward letters in the past, I really don't think it is necessary to attend one of the Zoom sessions; just use the link in the Mobilize sign-up instructions to request they send you some letters/addresses. If you are newbie to GOTV letter writing, I WOULD recommend signing up for one of the Zoom sessions.
The letter writing packet includes a page of instructions (including a link to the training slides), a list of names and addresses, and the letter template. Unlike for Vote Forward the letters, they don't include a personalized link for each voter. There is a one-page letter template that you print out multiple times instead. Similar to Vote Forward letters tehre is room for a personal message and they give you a suggested message which is very helpful for those of us who don't live in his district.
The timeline is to hold finished letters until Jan 27 at which point you can mail as you go until last mail date Feb 26.
I find it fascinating how hard so many people in the punditocracy and the media at large are trying to stand on their head so that they can say Democrats are doing well, but President Biden is in trouble. In fairness, it’s possible that that’s the case. But I am blown away by how easily people are accepting that frame. They are literally finding it easier to believe that we are hot for Democrats to win, but not for the leader of the Democrats to win. Which also means, we’re very frightened of MAGA taking over, just not the leader of MAGA takes over. Somehow, after decades of us badly neglecting down ballot races to our peril, we suddenly care a tremendous amount about Governorships, US Senate seats, US House seats, State Senate & Assembly seats, Secretaries of State seats, Attorneys General seats, Mayoralties & City Council seats, County Commissioner/Canvassers/Recorders, and School Board seats… BUT, we don’t care that much about the Presidency anymore. We’re afraid of Donald Trump‘s movement, but not of actually giving Donald Trump himself the most powerful position in all of the world. The fact that so many are unwilling to even entertain the idea that maybe we aren’t getting a truly accurate understanding of the dynamics of the Presidential race from the polling alone, in the wake of everything that I just said, is staggering. I am willing to entertain the idea that I could be wrong about this, but there is nearly no measure of humility in the media about their hot take that in my view, feels utterly preposterous.
You always give very thoughtful responses. I agree with you. The media - or large swaths of it - imho don't know how the hell else to report besides a dramatic car crash narrative. It's also worth remembering - as another Substack writer Jack Hopkins put it (and I'm paraphrasing) that media outlets are for profit entities that will push whatever spin gets the most eyeballs/clicks/subscriptions. I'm not convinced that millions of people are all in on down ballot races, but unenthusiastic or unwilling to pull the lever for Biden again - esp in a rematch. Trump is MAGA and that movement does not thrive without him - so it seems to me you can't logically reject MAGA while being willing to hand Trump the keys again - people just need to be reminded who that SOB is. He's GOP & GOP = DOBBS (& of course many other terrible things). I'm convinced most will come home. Regardless of what is or isn't being captured by the pollercoaster, it's our job as citizens to work for victory ! Remember compare him to the alternative, NOT the almighty!
While Tom Suozzi's special election race is deservedly getting the lion's share of attention, I wanted to let people know about another special election on Feb 13th in PA's 140th House district. The seat became available when the incumbent Democrat retired leaving the PA State House tied 101 (D) - 101 (R). The Democratic candidate is Jim Prokopiak. Per his message in the PTV campaign he is running to create union jobs, fairly fund public schools and protect reproductive freedom.
Postcards to Voters just dropped a new campaign for Jim yesterday. How about we show him some love? Abby the address Bot is still down, but you can request addresses on their slack channel or via email. Follow the instructions found here: https://mailchi.mp/f01df9d5bd7b/ptv-email-abby
Yes, and each election win leads to years of policy wins - take Virginia, where Hopium folks provided so much support allowing Democrats to take full control of the General Assembly. Dems here just beat back Republican efforts to kill Virginia’s Clean Car Standard and restrict early voting. If just a few races had gone the other way last November, both of these proposals likely would’ve passed and sailed to Gov. Youngkin’s desk for approval. Thank you for saving us from that fate!
Just donated!! Let's do it AGAIN, Hopium!
thank you!
thank you!
This is the type of post that gives me hop(e)ium that 2024 will NOT be the end of our democracy. Thank you Simon. Glad to be a subscriber.
Absolutely. Hopium has taught me that the worst thing one can do is let high stakes paralyze oneself. What matters is what happens on the ground and together we collectively have more control over that than we think! Already got postcards & I'm ready for letter writing !
As always happy to be a part of this ! Just watched the clip of your Lawrence O'Donnell interview - like this newsletter insightful as always ! Thank you for teaching me to not let junk polling/headlines get to me!
thank you!
Great news out of Florida, of all places! Solid, nose-to-the-grindstone, no-nonsense steadiness characterizes Dem performance -- and your leadership, Simon. Thanks again for HOPE. Well done.
Simon I love how you repeat the data over and over, each time adding a little bit of new info. Repetition is key and we all need to internalize the narrative first if we have any chance of spreading it to the voters.
Simon, Your voice meets a critical need for all those who support Democracy and have not taken to
shivering in the dark at the impending imagined doom. You are right, each of us must consistently
do more, more phone banks, more donations, more supporting good candidates. Now more than
ever in my 75 years, the Future Survival of Democracy is in our hands. All of Us!
Just made a second donation to Tom Suozz’s campaign
thank you!
Here is a nice weite-up about Tom Keen's win in yesterday's special election:
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/653319-tom-keen-flips-hd-35-from-red-to-blue-in-critical-special-election/
Yikes! *write-up.
Here is another nice write-up of Tom Keen's win:
https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-cause-earthquake-florida-shock-election-victory-1861332
helpful. Thank you Cheryl!
The mainstream “liberal” media, with a few exceptions like Lawrence O’Donnell, is again miserably failing our democracy with its simple minded groupthink coverage. Matt Robeson and Paul Hodes had an even more in depth conversation than Mr. O’Donnell’s and Mr. Rosenberg’s above analyzing what the Iowa results really tell us about Trump’s strength and how the mainstream media completely ignored these alternate, valid interpretations.
Matt Robeson has also written about this in Newsweek:
“No, Trump Did Not 'Conquer Iowa.'
How the Media Botched Election Coverage—Again “
Robeson also points out that 62% of the Iowa caucus voters said they would find Trump fit for office even if convicted and 32% said they would not. His take:
“ So, one-third of the country's most dedicated core of Republican base voters say that they will abandon Trump if he loses any of these cases, a breathtaking vulnerability for a candidate. And this nugget is not only buried inside an article about his political strength titled "Trump trounces in Iowa," but is also constructed so as to suggest that this is a sign of how devoted his support is?”
Robeson also points out that the voters who did turn out are the most MAGA voters, a fact which the caucus entrance polls made clear, yet Trump only got 51% of their votes. Almost half of those voters wanted someone else but the mainstream media chose to frame framed results as a huge victory for Trump. That is blatant media malpractice — as is treating the deeply undemocratic caucus results as massively important and representative of what the majority of voters want.
Robeson puts the results in perspective with this thought experiment:
“What if Joe Biden had gotten only half the votes of caucus-goers in Iowa. What would the headlines say? "Commanding victory"? Not on your life. How about a million thesaurus searches for variations on "Biden stumbles?" “
Robison followed his thought experiment with a couple of alternative, far more accurate, headlines:
“Trump Falters As Half of Republicans Turn Against Him" and
“Questions Fly as Trump Barely Clears 50 Percent in Iowa?"
https://www.newsweek.com/no-trump-did-not-conquer-iowa-how-media-botched-election-coverageagain-opinion-1861226
Contrary to what journalists repeatedly proclaim, mainstream media coverage does a lot to bias the public’s perception of reality and to shape our elections.
Thank you, Simon! 😁
I attended the virtual letter-writing party for Tom Suozzi last night. If you have written Vote Forward letters in the past, I really don't think it is necessary to attend one of the Zoom sessions; just use the link in the Mobilize sign-up instructions to request they send you some letters/addresses. If you are newbie to GOTV letter writing, I WOULD recommend signing up for one of the Zoom sessions.
The letter writing packet includes a page of instructions (including a link to the training slides), a list of names and addresses, and the letter template. Unlike for Vote Forward the letters, they don't include a personalized link for each voter. There is a one-page letter template that you print out multiple times instead. Similar to Vote Forward letters tehre is room for a personal message and they give you a suggested message which is very helpful for those of us who don't live in his district.
The timeline is to hold finished letters until Jan 27 at which point you can mail as you go until last mail date Feb 26.
Forgot to include the Moblize link: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/596961/
Individual Request Form to get letter kit: https://forms.gle/emh7qLeAiT7MBEQP7
Cheryl - thanks for this information. I have done VoteFwd.org letters before and I just asked for some letters to support this campaign.
Great!
OOPS.! That should have been last mail date is Feb 6th. I am all thumbs today and need to do a better job of proofing before hitting send!
I find it fascinating how hard so many people in the punditocracy and the media at large are trying to stand on their head so that they can say Democrats are doing well, but President Biden is in trouble. In fairness, it’s possible that that’s the case. But I am blown away by how easily people are accepting that frame. They are literally finding it easier to believe that we are hot for Democrats to win, but not for the leader of the Democrats to win. Which also means, we’re very frightened of MAGA taking over, just not the leader of MAGA takes over. Somehow, after decades of us badly neglecting down ballot races to our peril, we suddenly care a tremendous amount about Governorships, US Senate seats, US House seats, State Senate & Assembly seats, Secretaries of State seats, Attorneys General seats, Mayoralties & City Council seats, County Commissioner/Canvassers/Recorders, and School Board seats… BUT, we don’t care that much about the Presidency anymore. We’re afraid of Donald Trump‘s movement, but not of actually giving Donald Trump himself the most powerful position in all of the world. The fact that so many are unwilling to even entertain the idea that maybe we aren’t getting a truly accurate understanding of the dynamics of the Presidential race from the polling alone, in the wake of everything that I just said, is staggering. I am willing to entertain the idea that I could be wrong about this, but there is nearly no measure of humility in the media about their hot take that in my view, feels utterly preposterous.
You always give very thoughtful responses. I agree with you. The media - or large swaths of it - imho don't know how the hell else to report besides a dramatic car crash narrative. It's also worth remembering - as another Substack writer Jack Hopkins put it (and I'm paraphrasing) that media outlets are for profit entities that will push whatever spin gets the most eyeballs/clicks/subscriptions. I'm not convinced that millions of people are all in on down ballot races, but unenthusiastic or unwilling to pull the lever for Biden again - esp in a rematch. Trump is MAGA and that movement does not thrive without him - so it seems to me you can't logically reject MAGA while being willing to hand Trump the keys again - people just need to be reminded who that SOB is. He's GOP & GOP = DOBBS (& of course many other terrible things). I'm convinced most will come home. Regardless of what is or isn't being captured by the pollercoaster, it's our job as citizens to work for victory ! Remember compare him to the alternative, NOT the almighty!
While Tom Suozzi's special election race is deservedly getting the lion's share of attention, I wanted to let people know about another special election on Feb 13th in PA's 140th House district. The seat became available when the incumbent Democrat retired leaving the PA State House tied 101 (D) - 101 (R). The Democratic candidate is Jim Prokopiak. Per his message in the PTV campaign he is running to create union jobs, fairly fund public schools and protect reproductive freedom.
Postcards to Voters just dropped a new campaign for Jim yesterday. How about we show him some love? Abby the address Bot is still down, but you can request addresses on their slack channel or via email. Follow the instructions found here: https://mailchi.mp/f01df9d5bd7b/ptv-email-abby
Donated to Suozzi. Let’s get it done! Thanks, Simon.
thank you!
Great Zoom meeting tonight.
I'm pretty sure I registered for this evening's event. Will I get a link closer to show time? Thanks.
Susan, best thing think to do is just register again - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/wed-jan-17th-7pm-est-our-monthly
That worked. See you all shortly 😊
Yes, and each election win leads to years of policy wins - take Virginia, where Hopium folks provided so much support allowing Democrats to take full control of the General Assembly. Dems here just beat back Republican efforts to kill Virginia’s Clean Car Standard and restrict early voting. If just a few races had gone the other way last November, both of these proposals likely would’ve passed and sailed to Gov. Youngkin’s desk for approval. Thank you for saving us from that fate!