Great info. Never know who undecideds will break for, but I son't see them "breaking for the challenger" that they voted against, for good reasons, last time. What would be the argument in favor of voting for trump? That Biden is worse? No way.
Also, with all respect to the Gaza protesters in these polls, they are - mostly - not going to vote for Donald Trump or stay home if they care about Gaza when November comes. Right now, it’s all theoretical but the reality of a Trump second term later this summer - and implication for Gaza, abortion rights, democracy, climate, guns, student loans, ACA, etc, - is going to snap our base together with a tectonic force. We need to reach out - of course! - but we do not need to and should not base our election strategy on getting them back (or listening to the dummies in the media pushing this). The right move is to focus on crushing Trump (and our voters will come).
Thank you, Simon. Every word of this is a wonderful, welcome tonic.
Hope folks watched Lawrence O’Donnell last night – he gave an absolutely brilliant master class responding to the pundits bloviating from the sidelines. Was happy to see Senator Fetterman push back on Morning Joe, as well: “If you’re not willing to support the President, you might as well get your MAGA hat because you’re now helping Trump.” Bravo!
If we compare America in January 2021 to today, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris genuinely deserve re-election just on the basis of their many historic positive achievements - their first term has been one of the most successful in modern times. Team Biden-Harris would have bragging rights to win on merit alone against an “old-school” Republican if such a thing still existed.
But even more importantly, this election will be a stark choice: Will voters proactively decide to remain a democracy? Or will we allow a vindictive, criminal madman to take power as a Russian-style dictator? Will we choose to keep our freedoms or will we succumb to fascism? If the mainstream media won’t clearly define the existential choice ahead, it’s on ALL of us to become information warriors each day as Simon recommends. We have the patriotic duty to stay on offense, loud and proud!
Simon, I hope you realize how important your calm, fact-based reality checks are. The gaslighting, BS and hypocrisy of the Magats and their enablers can be absolutely suffocating some days. Without your regular doses of hopium, I know I would risk falling back into the pit of despair where I spent four hideous, traumatizing years. Thank you!
Thank you Simon. I totally believe we shall win. Nothing like doing something for it is empowering us.
Writing post cards, talking one on one, knocking on doors, helping someone to register, helping someone to get to the voting station, anything gives that awesome feeling.
Thank you Simon, you are so cool and so great when you write and talk !! lol
I was astounded by the cash on hand that the Biden Campaign/DNC has vs. Trump/RNC. Money isn't everything, but it does provide them opportunities to be campaign everywhere while the RNC is going to have to hold their ground/continue to spend money on Trump's increasing legal fees. This doesn't even include Biden's big fundraising trip to California.
I'm 77. I clearly remember the year George McGovern won ONE state...his home state. I'm thinking many-maybe most are as sick of the drama, the do-nothing House as I am...and my hope is for a repeat --REPEAT- of George McGovern. Say, maybe he takes Florida. No. I'm not on any Marijuana pain meds. Just a true patriot!!
Why not? Clinton and Obama each won FL twice, and Gore won it too ( until he didn't )! No reason to give up on it; still a lot of Yankee snowbirds retiring there.
A friend and very smart dude read your analysis and his response was: Yes, but the youth vote is in jeopardy (Biden's age plus Palestine) and Biden doesn't project the right energy as a candidate. He believes this could cost him the election in key states. I think your analysis is spot-on, Simon, but you haven't addressed either of these issues. Would appreciate your analysis and ideally your reassurance!
He has addressed these issues; the gold standard pollster it John Della Volpe; last I heard Biden was on track to meet his 2020 numbers. But I heard Rick Wilson say, the average voter in America is 48, and the average FL voter is 61. I remember the youth vote was supposed to carry us in 2004. It did not, despite being in an active war that affected youth the most, despite help from Eminem and Springsteen and lots of others, on election day they didn't show up. So I never hang my hat on the youth vote; if suburbanite homeowners are coming out for us, we will win walking away.
The issue with young people (per extensive analysis by The Civic Center -www.theciviccenter.org) is that young people are not registered in same proportion as for older voters. If you measure turnout and use REGISTERED voters in the denominator instead of ELIGIBLE TO VOTE, young people turn out at rates similar to other age cohorts.
So if reproductive rights are on the ballot (or say legalization of weed) young people will register and vote. Since Trump has said that he would back a nationwide abortion ban, this could become an issue even in states where abortion is "safe" from the state legislature IF we have good messaging. The same for climate change and environmental issues like clean air and water and efforts to hobble the EPA. And then there is the Christian Taliban's efforts to ban books and foster hate on the LGBTQ+ communities especially trans and nonbinary youth.
Y'all, the GOP is getting ready to nominate Donald Trump again!!! Clearly G-d loves us best if anchor Donnie T is President Biden's competition this fall. I understand this man sucked us all into the upside-down in 2016, but he literally hasn't won a damn thing since then and the only place I think he's headed is prison, preferably in Ludowici, Georgia.
Also, that nutbag Alabama ruling is already causing a major rift in the GOP coalition. I myself have attended a church service (with a relative) where, during the hootenanny celebrating Pro-life, we prayed fervently for all of the couples trying to conceive via IVF! Uh-oh......
R's could kid themselves that they don't know anyone who ever had an abortion since that is still pretty taboo to talk about - especially if you are sure your "church family" will label you as a sinner. I thnk R's have only come to realize since Dobb's and their abortion bans going into effect that these laws also effect lots of woman who miscarry and need a D&C (which is an abortion procedure) or who have nonviable fetuses that could risk the mother's life and or/fertility. 'What! You mean our state's abortion ban isn't going to just effect godless promiscuous women?' /s
Unlike abortion, IVF is talked about since children 'are blessings from God'. In fact, there are quite a few people that are willing to tell the whole world and are using crowdfunding (like GoFundMe) to cover the costs of IVF.
Thanks you Simon. How do you think the IVF ruling in Alabama plays into the larger discussion about freedom? To me it looks like one more nail in the coffin for R’s chances of winning over large swaths of the electorate.
Great info. Never know who undecideds will break for, but I son't see them "breaking for the challenger" that they voted against, for good reasons, last time. What would be the argument in favor of voting for trump? That Biden is worse? No way.
Also, with all respect to the Gaza protesters in these polls, they are - mostly - not going to vote for Donald Trump or stay home if they care about Gaza when November comes. Right now, it’s all theoretical but the reality of a Trump second term later this summer - and implication for Gaza, abortion rights, democracy, climate, guns, student loans, ACA, etc, - is going to snap our base together with a tectonic force. We need to reach out - of course! - but we do not need to and should not base our election strategy on getting them back (or listening to the dummies in the media pushing this). The right move is to focus on crushing Trump (and our voters will come).
https://x.com/rachelbitecofer/status/1760700019190214978?s=10&t=hILo7txomZtBpEkthl3CYQ
This is well done!
Don’t know how to edit my own post! Would make a great Biden ad. Cleverly defines MAGA as the party of NO and negativity.
On the right of where you see the Like Reply and Share you should see three dots. If you select the buttons you should have an edit option.
"Nattering nabobs of negativism."
.
Thanks Simon. U r a trusted political strategist and resource. And very right about the last GOP red wave that did not happen. 😂 🙏🏻💙💙💙
Thank you, Simon. Every word of this is a wonderful, welcome tonic.
Hope folks watched Lawrence O’Donnell last night – he gave an absolutely brilliant master class responding to the pundits bloviating from the sidelines. Was happy to see Senator Fetterman push back on Morning Joe, as well: “If you’re not willing to support the President, you might as well get your MAGA hat because you’re now helping Trump.” Bravo!
If we compare America in January 2021 to today, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris genuinely deserve re-election just on the basis of their many historic positive achievements - their first term has been one of the most successful in modern times. Team Biden-Harris would have bragging rights to win on merit alone against an “old-school” Republican if such a thing still existed.
But even more importantly, this election will be a stark choice: Will voters proactively decide to remain a democracy? Or will we allow a vindictive, criminal madman to take power as a Russian-style dictator? Will we choose to keep our freedoms or will we succumb to fascism? If the mainstream media won’t clearly define the existential choice ahead, it’s on ALL of us to become information warriors each day as Simon recommends. We have the patriotic duty to stay on offense, loud and proud!
Loved Lawrence last night! 🔥
Yes, Lawrence O’Donnell laid out a fantastic reality check on what it would mean to change presidential candidates at this point. For anyone who was not alive and politically conscious in 1968 is a fantastic history lesson which should be widely cheered. Here’s the podcast. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-last-word-with-lawrence-odonnell/id1316084734?i=1000646353362
Thank you for the link. Lawrence was spot on. I do not understand all of this from the media and other talking heads.
If all goes well I should be on Lawrence tonight around 1030pm EST.....
Simon, I hope you realize how important your calm, fact-based reality checks are. The gaslighting, BS and hypocrisy of the Magats and their enablers can be absolutely suffocating some days. Without your regular doses of hopium, I know I would risk falling back into the pit of despair where I spent four hideous, traumatizing years. Thank you!
Thank you Simon. I totally believe we shall win. Nothing like doing something for it is empowering us.
Writing post cards, talking one on one, knocking on doors, helping someone to register, helping someone to get to the voting station, anything gives that awesome feeling.
Thank you Simon, you are so cool and so great when you write and talk !! lol
I was astounded by the cash on hand that the Biden Campaign/DNC has vs. Trump/RNC. Money isn't everything, but it does provide them opportunities to be campaign everywhere while the RNC is going to have to hold their ground/continue to spend money on Trump's increasing legal fees. This doesn't even include Biden's big fundraising trip to California.
Yes,yes,yes!!!! Thank you for reminding me that that word works!!!
No is not for me…. too limiting.
Preach it! Simon is doing his job. Are we finding ours?
“He wears more make-up than a drag queen” 🤣
The distinguishing feature is ... the smelly diaper.
.
Whew! Simon, WE the People are coming thru and in charge! Vote as if your life depends on it!
It does! Democrats need praise and credit! Move onward! With patience, too!
Go Rosenberg, go!!
I'm 77. I clearly remember the year George McGovern won ONE state...his home state. I'm thinking many-maybe most are as sick of the drama, the do-nothing House as I am...and my hope is for a repeat --REPEAT- of George McGovern. Say, maybe he takes Florida. No. I'm not on any Marijuana pain meds. Just a true patriot!!
Why not? Clinton and Obama each won FL twice, and Gore won it too ( until he didn't )! No reason to give up on it; still a lot of Yankee snowbirds retiring there.
A friend and very smart dude read your analysis and his response was: Yes, but the youth vote is in jeopardy (Biden's age plus Palestine) and Biden doesn't project the right energy as a candidate. He believes this could cost him the election in key states. I think your analysis is spot-on, Simon, but you haven't addressed either of these issues. Would appreciate your analysis and ideally your reassurance!
He has addressed these issues; the gold standard pollster it John Della Volpe; last I heard Biden was on track to meet his 2020 numbers. But I heard Rick Wilson say, the average voter in America is 48, and the average FL voter is 61. I remember the youth vote was supposed to carry us in 2004. It did not, despite being in an active war that affected youth the most, despite help from Eminem and Springsteen and lots of others, on election day they didn't show up. So I never hang my hat on the youth vote; if suburbanite homeowners are coming out for us, we will win walking away.
The issue with young people (per extensive analysis by The Civic Center -www.theciviccenter.org) is that young people are not registered in same proportion as for older voters. If you measure turnout and use REGISTERED voters in the denominator instead of ELIGIBLE TO VOTE, young people turn out at rates similar to other age cohorts.
So if reproductive rights are on the ballot (or say legalization of weed) young people will register and vote. Since Trump has said that he would back a nationwide abortion ban, this could become an issue even in states where abortion is "safe" from the state legislature IF we have good messaging. The same for climate change and environmental issues like clean air and water and efforts to hobble the EPA. And then there is the Christian Taliban's efforts to ban books and foster hate on the LGBTQ+ communities especially trans and nonbinary youth.
Y'all, the GOP is getting ready to nominate Donald Trump again!!! Clearly G-d loves us best if anchor Donnie T is President Biden's competition this fall. I understand this man sucked us all into the upside-down in 2016, but he literally hasn't won a damn thing since then and the only place I think he's headed is prison, preferably in Ludowici, Georgia.
Also, that nutbag Alabama ruling is already causing a major rift in the GOP coalition. I myself have attended a church service (with a relative) where, during the hootenanny celebrating Pro-life, we prayed fervently for all of the couples trying to conceive via IVF! Uh-oh......
R's could kid themselves that they don't know anyone who ever had an abortion since that is still pretty taboo to talk about - especially if you are sure your "church family" will label you as a sinner. I thnk R's have only come to realize since Dobb's and their abortion bans going into effect that these laws also effect lots of woman who miscarry and need a D&C (which is an abortion procedure) or who have nonviable fetuses that could risk the mother's life and or/fertility. 'What! You mean our state's abortion ban isn't going to just effect godless promiscuous women?' /s
Unlike abortion, IVF is talked about since children 'are blessings from God'. In fact, there are quite a few people that are willing to tell the whole world and are using crowdfunding (like GoFundMe) to cover the costs of IVF.
Thanks you Simon. How do you think the IVF ruling in Alabama plays into the larger discussion about freedom? To me it looks like one more nail in the coffin for R’s chances of winning over large swaths of the electorate.