Trump Takes Control Of GOP Nomination Fight

Trump has a big lead, and it is growing. DeSantis is in serious trouble.

We’ve had a lot of polling in the GOP Presidential primary race over the last few weeks, and it all shows the same thing - Donald Trump has taken control of the fight for the GOP nomination, and bumbling DeSantis is falling very fast.

Here are some of the most recent polls (all can be found on 538), which average out to Trump 49% - DeSantis 26%.

• Fox 54-24

• Harvard/Harris 50-24

• Morn Consult 52-26

• Premise 56-25

• Quinnipiac 46-32

• Monmouth 41-27

What is even more worrisome for the neverTrumpers in the GOP is the dramatic movement we are seeing away from DeSantis and towards Trump in these polls. Just as many feared and predicted, the GOP base is rallying around their serial criminal, insurrectionist, racist leader as indictments near.

Consider these posts from fellow substacker John Della Volpe of Harvard below - Monmouth finds a 27 point swing to Trump (!!!) and Fox finds a 15 point in just the last month!!!!! These are huge swings in a short period of time.

John Della Volpe (follow me on substack) @dellavolpe

In @MonmouthPoll open-end question about 2024 primary, Trump surging v DeSantis -- which proves Trump's point that all publicity is good publicity in a Republican primary. Whether the same holds true with general election voters & juries is another question altogether.

John Della Volpe (follow me on substack) @dellavolpe

Not sure this is how DeSantis wrote it up - 1⃣Soft launch presidential campaign / launch book tour 2⃣Sit down with select media to maximize control over message 3⃣Lose 15 points in the polls Feb 2023 Trump +15 Mar 2023 Trump +30 - @FoxNews

I know there has been some coverage of a poll showing DeSantis doing better in IA and NH this week, but Axios neither released the poll itself or the funder. Until we have those we can’t take the poll seriously, particularly after all the GOP strategic gaming of poll coverage with doctored polls last cycle. The results of this shady poll are also deeply at odds with the trends we are seeing in poll after poll at the national level. So my take is they are BS polls planted by a DeSantis ally and should be dismissed.

The Trumpy candidates who prevailed over more establishment GOP candidates in GOP primaries almost universally failed in 2022. The battleground has rejected MAGA in three consectutive elections now. And yet, as Trump evolves into the most deranged and dangerous version of himself, SuperMAGA, and even as DeSantis positioned himself far to the right to gain the support of Trump voters, the former President’s hold on the GOP tightens. This is not a party that can be let anywhere near the White House next year. They’ve told us who they are, which is why we need to “Get to 55” and shoot not just to win next year, but win big, and make sure the election is seen as a powerful and perhaps final repudiation of everything the GOP has become.