Trump commands attention, even people who loathe him (like me) click to see what outrageousness comes out of his mouth. DeSantis, an ideologically pure fascist isn’t as amusing. Wish they had someone that could take eyes off of Trump, maybe combative Christie will get into it
How on god’s green earth does a career criminal, seditionist piece of human excrement command such loyalty? How is he even allowed to try to take the White House back? Where is our much vaunted “justice for all”?!?! We all know that if he, by hook or by crook, moves back in to the White House, he (and/or his seditious minions) will never give it up; and millions will be happy about that fact?!?! I am beyond baffled.
Since Trump took office by hijacking the party, pro-democracy conservatives/educated voters have left the party by registering as independents or voting for Democrats, creating an issue for the GOP that Democrats need to take advantage of. Therefore, the shift toward Trump will continue because of the "beer track" voters of lower income and education, who now make up a larger field of GOP primary voters. I voted for these two power-hungry zealots. And I'm a Democrat now. (To be fair, I lived in Florida for college around then. Blame the vodka. I'm glad I don't reside in MAGAstan any longer.) Yes, that Axios poll showing DeSantis leading was laughable!! Ron will get demolished by Trump. But who knows? It's politics. Lastly, I think Biden will win again.
Simon, I know you're a statistics guy, and so polls feed that desire for "numbers", BUT it's 19 months until the election, the polls were significantly wrong last election (and caused a lot of hand-wringing and despair), and indictments have yet to drop...I hope you'll include in your reports necessary precautions about reading too much into any of this at this stage. Polls are easily manipulated by hidden agendas, and are almost universally amplified, often incorrectly, by the mainstream media and always by Faux entertainment. Let's not let the trolls frame the discussion (as they are trying to do on Heather Cox Richardson's substack Comments section). Anything that distracts us from the steady work to get to 55% is counterproductive. We already know that 40% of the country have ditched democracy, the Constitution and sanity/ethics/honesty; we can't fix these issues until we succeed in electing enough sane people to carry out the needed reforms. Let's stay focused!
Tom while I agree with much of what you write here I do not agree with you about polling/numbers are not important right now. Polls are a snapshot in time. They tell you what is happening now. They are not predictive, nor do I ever predict anything. I forecast, which is making reasonable assumptions on the data we have now. It is how Tom Bonier and I got the election right last year. We look at data as it came in and interpreted it. My first piece saying the election could be close and competitive was in Oct of 2021, based on the data we had then.
What this data tells us is that today Trump is in command. It says nothing about where we will be six months from now.
I'd also note that in the unlikely event that Trump is ever indicted, it will take years to see actual trials.
The legal system has proven its inability to address fascism. The Wisconsin legislature is already discussing impeachment if the Democratic candidate for the Wisconsin supreme court wins in April.
The only road to saving this country is collective organizing to elect Democrats at the local, state and federal levels.
Michigan provides a literal roadmap for flipping a state blue.
Indictments will help Trump. It puts him in the spotlight and allows him to air grievances and feed into the victim mentality of the right. On the contrary, DeSantis does not seem to do well in the spotlight. His numbers drop every time he gets coverage, and he seems completely unwilling to directly criticize Trump about anything. I don't see how he can win right now.
I feel: 1) It is way too early for polls! 2) If a poll such as Monmouth or others is quoted I want to see their sources and methods up front. 3) It’s way too early to contribute to anyone’s campaign. This morning I received an email requesting a contribution to someone in California running against Kevin McCarthy. N
It is important to discuss what place polls have -- and when -- in our election process. So I don't think (per SR) that we ignore them all together, just because it's early. We have to be sure to give them the due they deserve - -which is limited, in context and with a certain grain of salt.
I really disagree though on it being too early to contribute to campaigns. It takes a long time, planning ahead and lots of money to build a robust, winning campaign. It may be too early for some "campaigns" (don't know who you refer to as running against McCarthy) -- those just testing the waters or where its so crowded as to not know if money will be well spent, but for other campaigns it is essential. Probably our biggest challenge is to keep the Senate. There are several senators who are up for reelection who are going to have a hard time keeping their seats. I won't go into how we sometimes don't like the positions they take (looking at you, Manchin) but they are vitally important for keeping control of the Senate, its agenda and for the fact that the majority of time, they vote the Democratic way. Jon Tester (Montana) and Sherrod Brown (OH) are good examples. Please consider!
I agree with you, Alexandra. An organization I like, ForceMultiplierus.org is already recommending candidates to support so we can win back the House. Some of these Representatives just got into Congress and need early money for their next campaigns. Force Multiplier also recommends supporting 4 Senate candidates (among them, Tester and Brown). It’s not too early.
Simon - you mention (during live presentations, and sporadically in written comments, media you follow and think highly of (eg Bulwark, Deep State Radio, Midas Touch). Since I'm increasingly disenchanted with main stream media and consider them a very big part of the problem, I pay attention to yours (and others) recommendations as I continue my switch to other sources for news.
Would it be possible to keep lists at the bottom of your posts of things like that -- media to look to, maybe even campaigns you think need the most attention? I find that the substacks/emails etc I receive that can be the most valuable have on-going links to worthwhile info, actions etc. I also know you're new to substack and just gearing up, so doing this may be more than you want to take on now (or ever, for whatever reason) but just a suggestion. I appreciate your work enormously - thank you.
Simon, to what do you attribute this wild swing? Just attention? Is it really that simple? Did DeSantis make a giant strategic error?
Trump commands attention, even people who loathe him (like me) click to see what outrageousness comes out of his mouth. DeSantis, an ideologically pure fascist isn’t as amusing. Wish they had someone that could take eyes off of Trump, maybe combative Christie will get into it
How on god’s green earth does a career criminal, seditionist piece of human excrement command such loyalty? How is he even allowed to try to take the White House back? Where is our much vaunted “justice for all”?!?! We all know that if he, by hook or by crook, moves back in to the White House, he (and/or his seditious minions) will never give it up; and millions will be happy about that fact?!?! I am beyond baffled.
Since Trump took office by hijacking the party, pro-democracy conservatives/educated voters have left the party by registering as independents or voting for Democrats, creating an issue for the GOP that Democrats need to take advantage of. Therefore, the shift toward Trump will continue because of the "beer track" voters of lower income and education, who now make up a larger field of GOP primary voters. I voted for these two power-hungry zealots. And I'm a Democrat now. (To be fair, I lived in Florida for college around then. Blame the vodka. I'm glad I don't reside in MAGAstan any longer.) Yes, that Axios poll showing DeSantis leading was laughable!! Ron will get demolished by Trump. But who knows? It's politics. Lastly, I think Biden will win again.
Simon, I know you're a statistics guy, and so polls feed that desire for "numbers", BUT it's 19 months until the election, the polls were significantly wrong last election (and caused a lot of hand-wringing and despair), and indictments have yet to drop...I hope you'll include in your reports necessary precautions about reading too much into any of this at this stage. Polls are easily manipulated by hidden agendas, and are almost universally amplified, often incorrectly, by the mainstream media and always by Faux entertainment. Let's not let the trolls frame the discussion (as they are trying to do on Heather Cox Richardson's substack Comments section). Anything that distracts us from the steady work to get to 55% is counterproductive. We already know that 40% of the country have ditched democracy, the Constitution and sanity/ethics/honesty; we can't fix these issues until we succeed in electing enough sane people to carry out the needed reforms. Let's stay focused!
Tom while I agree with much of what you write here I do not agree with you about polling/numbers are not important right now. Polls are a snapshot in time. They tell you what is happening now. They are not predictive, nor do I ever predict anything. I forecast, which is making reasonable assumptions on the data we have now. It is how Tom Bonier and I got the election right last year. We look at data as it came in and interpreted it. My first piece saying the election could be close and competitive was in Oct of 2021, based on the data we had then.
What this data tells us is that today Trump is in command. It says nothing about where we will be six months from now.
Agreed.
I'd also note that in the unlikely event that Trump is ever indicted, it will take years to see actual trials.
The legal system has proven its inability to address fascism. The Wisconsin legislature is already discussing impeachment if the Democratic candidate for the Wisconsin supreme court wins in April.
The only road to saving this country is collective organizing to elect Democrats at the local, state and federal levels.
Michigan provides a literal roadmap for flipping a state blue.
Indictments will help Trump. It puts him in the spotlight and allows him to air grievances and feed into the victim mentality of the right. On the contrary, DeSantis does not seem to do well in the spotlight. His numbers drop every time he gets coverage, and he seems completely unwilling to directly criticize Trump about anything. I don't see how he can win right now.
Makes sense. Thank you for the explanation. 👍🏻
I feel: 1) It is way too early for polls! 2) If a poll such as Monmouth or others is quoted I want to see their sources and methods up front. 3) It’s way too early to contribute to anyone’s campaign. This morning I received an email requesting a contribution to someone in California running against Kevin McCarthy. N
It is important to discuss what place polls have -- and when -- in our election process. So I don't think (per SR) that we ignore them all together, just because it's early. We have to be sure to give them the due they deserve - -which is limited, in context and with a certain grain of salt.
I really disagree though on it being too early to contribute to campaigns. It takes a long time, planning ahead and lots of money to build a robust, winning campaign. It may be too early for some "campaigns" (don't know who you refer to as running against McCarthy) -- those just testing the waters or where its so crowded as to not know if money will be well spent, but for other campaigns it is essential. Probably our biggest challenge is to keep the Senate. There are several senators who are up for reelection who are going to have a hard time keeping their seats. I won't go into how we sometimes don't like the positions they take (looking at you, Manchin) but they are vitally important for keeping control of the Senate, its agenda and for the fact that the majority of time, they vote the Democratic way. Jon Tester (Montana) and Sherrod Brown (OH) are good examples. Please consider!
I agree with you, Alexandra. An organization I like, ForceMultiplierus.org is already recommending candidates to support so we can win back the House. Some of these Representatives just got into Congress and need early money for their next campaigns. Force Multiplier also recommends supporting 4 Senate candidates (among them, Tester and Brown). It’s not too early.
Simon - you mention (during live presentations, and sporadically in written comments, media you follow and think highly of (eg Bulwark, Deep State Radio, Midas Touch). Since I'm increasingly disenchanted with main stream media and consider them a very big part of the problem, I pay attention to yours (and others) recommendations as I continue my switch to other sources for news.
Would it be possible to keep lists at the bottom of your posts of things like that -- media to look to, maybe even campaigns you think need the most attention? I find that the substacks/emails etc I receive that can be the most valuable have on-going links to worthwhile info, actions etc. I also know you're new to substack and just gearing up, so doing this may be more than you want to take on now (or ever, for whatever reason) but just a suggestion. I appreciate your work enormously - thank you.
Today’s Edition Newsletter by Robert Hubbell is one I never ever miss reading. https://open.substack.com/pub/roberthubbell/p/the-wrong-side-of-history-and-the?r=536qh&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post