Trump has a big lead, and it is growing. DeSantis is in serious trouble.
Simon, to what do you attribute this wild swing? Just attention? Is it really that simple? Did DeSantis make a giant strategic error?
How on god’s green earth does a career criminal, seditionist piece of human excrement command such loyalty? How is he even allowed to try to take the White House back? Where is our much vaunted “justice for all”?!?! We all know that if he, by hook or by crook, moves back in to the White House, he (and/or his seditious minions) will never give it up; and millions will be happy about that fact?!?! I am beyond baffled.
Since Trump took office by hijacking the party, pro-democracy conservatives/educated voters have left the party by registering as independents or voting for Democrats, creating an issue for the GOP that Democrats need to take advantage of. Therefore, the shift toward Trump will continue because of the "beer track" voters of lower income and education, who now make up a larger field of GOP primary voters. I voted for these two power-hungry zealots. And I'm a Democrat now. (To be fair, I lived in Florida for college around then. Blame the vodka. I'm glad I don't reside in MAGAstan any longer.) Yes, that Axios poll showing DeSantis leading was laughable!! Ron will get demolished by Trump. But who knows? It's politics. Lastly, I think Biden will win again.
Simon, I know you're a statistics guy, and so polls feed that desire for "numbers", BUT it's 19 months until the election, the polls were significantly wrong last election (and caused a lot of hand-wringing and despair), and indictments have yet to drop...I hope you'll include in your reports necessary precautions about reading too much into any of this at this stage. Polls are easily manipulated by hidden agendas, and are almost universally amplified, often incorrectly, by the mainstream media and always by Faux entertainment. Let's not let the trolls frame the discussion (as they are trying to do on Heather Cox Richardson's substack Comments section). Anything that distracts us from the steady work to get to 55% is counterproductive. We already know that 40% of the country have ditched democracy, the Constitution and sanity/ethics/honesty; we can't fix these issues until we succeed in electing enough sane people to carry out the needed reforms. Let's stay focused!
I feel: 1) It is way too early for polls! 2) If a poll such as Monmouth or others is quoted I want to see their sources and methods up front. 3) It’s way too early to contribute to anyone’s campaign. This morning I received an email requesting a contribution to someone in California running against Kevin McCarthy. N
Simon - you mention (during live presentations, and sporadically in written comments, media you follow and think highly of (eg Bulwark, Deep State Radio, Midas Touch). Since I'm increasingly disenchanted with main stream media and consider them a very big part of the problem, I pay attention to yours (and others) recommendations as I continue my switch to other sources for news.
Would it be possible to keep lists at the bottom of your posts of things like that -- media to look to, maybe even campaigns you think need the most attention? I find that the substacks/emails etc I receive that can be the most valuable have on-going links to worthwhile info, actions etc. I also know you're new to substack and just gearing up, so doing this may be more than you want to take on now (or ever, for whatever reason) but just a suggestion. I appreciate your work enormously - thank you.
Today’s Edition Newsletter by Robert Hubbell is one I never ever miss reading. https://open.substack.com/pub/roberthubbell/p/the-wrong-side-of-history-and-the?r=536qh&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post