Trump Takes Control Of GOP Nomination Fight
Trump has a big lead, and it is growing. DeSantis is in serious trouble.
We’ve had a lot of polling in the GOP Presidential primary race over the last few weeks, and it all shows the same thing - Donald Trump has taken control of the fight for the GOP nomination, and bumbling DeSantis is falling very fast.
Here are some of the most recent polls (all can be found on 538), which average out to Trump 49% - DeSantis 26%.
Fox 54-24
Harvard/Harris 50-24
Morn Consult 52-26
Premise 56-25
Quinnipiac 46-32
Monmouth 41-27
What is even more worrisome for the neverTrumpers in the GOP is the dramatic movement we are seeing away from DeSantis and towards Trump in these polls. Just as many feared and predicted, the GOP base is rallying around their serial criminal, insurrectionist, racist leader as indictments near.
Consider these posts from fellow substacker John Della Volpe of Harvard below - Monmouth finds a 27 point swing to Trump (!!!) and Fox finds a 15 point in just the last month!!!!! These are huge swings in a short period of time.
I know there has been some coverage of a poll showing DeSantis doing better in IA and NH this week, but Axios neither released the poll itself or the funder. Until we have those we can’t take the poll seriously, particularly after all the GOP strategic gaming of poll coverage with doctored polls last cycle. The results of this shady poll are also deeply at odds with the trends we are seeing in poll after poll at the national level. So my take is they are BS polls planted by a DeSantis ally and should be dismissed.
The Trumpy candidates who prevailed over more establishment GOP candidates in GOP primaries almost universally failed in 2022. The battleground has rejected MAGA in three consectutive elections now. And yet, as Trump evolves into the most deranged and dangerous version of himself, SuperMAGA, and even as DeSantis positioned himself far to the right to gain the support of Trump voters, the former President’s hold on the GOP tightens. This is not a party that can be let anywhere near the White House next year. They’ve told us who they are, which is why we need to “Get to 55” and shoot not just to win next year, but win big, and make sure the election is seen as a powerful and perhaps final repudiation of everything the GOP has become.
Simon, I know you're a statistics guy, and so polls feed that desire for "numbers", BUT it's 19 months until the election, the polls were significantly wrong last election (and caused a lot of hand-wringing and despair), and indictments have yet to drop...I hope you'll include in your reports necessary precautions about reading too much into any of this at this stage. Polls are easily manipulated by hidden agendas, and are almost universally amplified, often incorrectly, by the mainstream media and always by Faux entertainment. Let's not let the trolls frame the discussion (as they are trying to do on Heather Cox Richardson's substack Comments section). Anything that distracts us from the steady work to get to 55% is counterproductive. We already know that 40% of the country have ditched democracy, the Constitution and sanity/ethics/honesty; we can't fix these issues until we succeed in electing enough sane people to carry out the needed reforms. Let's stay focused!
Since Trump took office by hijacking the party, pro-democracy conservatives/educated voters have left the party by registering as independents or voting for Democrats, creating an issue for the GOP that Democrats need to take advantage of. Therefore, the shift toward Trump will continue because of the "beer track" voters of lower income and education, who now make up a larger field of GOP primary voters. I voted for these two power-hungry zealots. And I'm a Democrat now. (To be fair, I lived in Florida for college around then. Blame the vodka. I'm glad I don't reside in MAGAstan any longer.) Yes, that Axios poll showing DeSantis leading was laughable!! Ron will get demolished by Trump. But who knows? It's politics. Lastly, I think Biden will win again.