HappyLiberal, if you are going to be here and play such an aggressive and divisive role, you are going to need to operate under your actual name and not a pseudonym. I have asked people to keep calm and be respectful of one another as we go through this rough patch together. You have posted many times, today, angrily. So if you want to stay here and keep contributing you will need to do so as an actual person. Thank you.
That is a little too passive aggressive, I'm sorry. I just asked that if you are going to be so aggressive and so combative that you do so as an actual person and not "Happy Liberal." I did not ask you to stop or alter your posts in any way. I just asked that if you were going to come in here so heavy you needed to it as a person.
I don’t doubt that you do….but maybe consider that those who support Biden remaining on the ticket also care equally and disagree with your assessment. Whatever happens is going to be a disappointing decision for a significant chunk of our D family, and we will all have to be part of soothing and healing the wounds quickly…maybe start now by expressing your opinion of who the nominee should be with greater respect for the President’s service & his supporters belief in him, as well as expressing your commitment to Team Democracy regardless of what decision is made….and I would give the exact same advice to Congressman Schiff.
Thank you, Simon. I'm tired of reading these commenters divisive comments. We need to stay united, focused on defeating fascism at every level of government, and not make the same mistake as we did in 2016 when the Bernie Bros refused to back HRC and caused so much divisiveness at the 2016 DNC convention. Still Ridin' with Biden/Harris2024 VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024💙
David Jolly was on MSNBC a few nights ago and was extremely frustrated with those trying to push Biden out. He was pretty certain that Biden would win if everybody would rally around him!
I've been sayin'..... It's the Russians, stupid. Vance is Putin's choice for VP. "He is vehemently opposed to using more funds to help Ukraine and has blasted what he sees as Europe’s over-dependence on the United States when it comes to military investment. One senior EU official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly on the issue, said in an interview Monday that the appointment of Vance was a “disaster” for Ukraine — and by extension for the European Union, which has backed Kyiv as it defends itself against Russian aggression." https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vice-president-nominee-jd-vance-republican-party-united-states-presidential-election-us-eu-relations-isolationism-foreign-policy/
According to the 2022 American Community Survey, about 8.2 million people in the United States, or roughly 2.5% of the population, reported Polish ancestry. This makes Polish Americans the largest Slavic ethnic group in the country, the second largest Central European group, and the eighth largest immigrant group overall. Add the Baltic states, Finland, etc.
Hopefully the word about Putin/Vance will affect the vote in WPa, MI, MI.
According to the 2022 American Community Survey, about 8.2 million people in the United States, or roughly 2.5% of the population, reported Polish ancestry.
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According to this Wikipedia article, there are 65K+ Polish Americans in OH, if you look at just 3 cities (Toledo, Cleveland, and Parma).
Add to that the veterans and military, their families and friends now opposed to him due to "not suckers or losers."
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A friend of mine was a registered Republican until Trump, although I think she was more of an independent based on her voting record. Her dad was career military and nothing sets her off more quickly than Trump's take on veterans and the military. She has MAGA relatives so she calls me to vent about Trump and our current threat to Democracy. (My late parents were both WWII veterans).
Veterans. "Not suckers or losers" works. 4 million people on Facebook are veterans or active duty members. 12.5 million people on Facebook are family members of a veteran or an active duty member. 242 million people on Facebook are friends with one or more veterans or active duty members. Say the magic words daily, as a mantra on military, history sites, and see what happens. https://rvat.org/
“The Trump proposal would cut SSI by more than $8 billion over the next decade, shrinking benefits for roughly a quarter of a million children with disabilities by between 38 and 66 percent. It would also increase SSI’s administrative costs and improper payments”.
I think there are quite a few Americans with Eastern European ancestry in swing states. Alex Vindman in ads (or any other well-spoken dem with Eastern European cred?) should have some effect, right?
Democratic Messaging Project (a PAC) -- we have static billboards, a robust digital campaign and digital rolling billboard trucks in the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin starting in August thru Election Day. We are not shying away from creative, provocative messaging and we sure as heck will be putting JD Vance - in all his MAGA glory - front and center. We've already started on our social media. And, we're out with a rolling billboard truck right now at the Republican National Convention where our work is being picked up by numerous media outlets. Folks can go to our website to see what we're doing and check out our amazing creative from our genius graphic artist, Scotty Sandow. www.blueforyou.org
Here is a suggested billboard, pending approval from Ms Daniels:
“This November, help me spank Donald into submission. He’s a loser!"
– Stormy Daniels
Suggested illustration: closeup of a Stormy winking, holding a rolled-up issue of Forbes Magazine with Trump on the cover. Oh, and be sure to place one near Mar-a-Lago!
We are not shying away from creative, provocative messaging....
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Your comment reminded me of a local Charlotte (NC) ad agency's provocative campaign to encourage people to get the Covid vaccine. It went viral nationwide and reached a whole lot of people (many who never actually saw the truck with the message), so here's hoping your billboards do too!
Perhaps Vindman can be featured in some ads? I’d like to see him on the campaign trail, addressing voters with Ukrainian, Polish and other East-European background, as well as Independent and Republican voters who are concerned about national defense.
I had a 100 year old friend who I’m very sorry to say died recently. She lived through Hitler and called Trump “Little Hitler.” I like the diminishing adjective, but I wouldn’t take it as underestimating Trump’s destructive bent.
I haven't found evidence that Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie declined. But thank you for your reply, I wanted to move our discussion past the glibness. Imo the VP selection is/ was made by T's overlords, not T himself and in this instance, because T is such a wreck in public, the campaigning will be taken up by Vance. Good for us because he is so unappealing [polite term]
Vance publicly holds many beliefs that I, and a majority of Americans, find unpalatable.
Vance 2016: Trump might be America’s Hitler.
Vance 2024: Trump might be America’s Hitler, but that’s okay because I have on a brown shirt and red armband.
Time to denigrate this loathsome individual with all the things he’s been recorded saying. Simon has helped us by collecting the links, let’s make sure people see them.
Lets remember Vance beat Tim Ryan, easily. Clearly he is palatable to many people and so is maga. Otherwise neither would exist. I don't know what the VP debate plan is but if there will be one Harris better be prepared and not just assume Vance will self destruct while she stands there passively.
Yeah, research shows 30% of people want a king. It makes their lives simpler and gives them structure. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.
40% of people vote in very national election and 30% never vote, and 30% vote some of the time. What we need to do is turnout as many voters from reasonable majority of that remaining 30% who do not want a theocracy.
Like I said yesterday, it motivates most of us to worry less, do more. Gestalt therapy? FIGHT BACK! Register more Democrats. Swamp Republicans. Millions of unregistered trend Democratic. In the past 2 years 84,000 have been purged in Baghdad By the Sea. .
FT 6 has texted well over a million in the past several days. Thanks to a donor, texts to Arizona today and tomorrow. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Field Team 6 also launched Project-2025-themed postcard campaigns statewide for all the swing states and for target districts in several additional states. You can find these campaigns under the "Special Messaging" section.
Daniel, you said "thanks to a donor..." Singular. Has FT6 recently received a large donation from a deep-pocket donor? I have been hoping this would happen!
Im signing up of some mobilize and FT6 phonebanking. Also promoting my organization BWPM - we are about to sell out of our 1st set of postcards to get Michigan voters to sign up for mail in ballots.https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
“Trump went on to endorse Vance late in the GOP primary. That, and the outside $10M ad blitz, are clearly the only reasons that Vance went on to win.
BUT….even with all that help, and in a state where the GOP Governor (DeWine) defeated the Democratic candidate by more than 25 points, and the rest of the GOP ticket won by the high teens or low 20s, (judicial races by the low teens), Vance only won by just over 6 points. As dramatic an underperformance of candidates on the same ticket as you’ll see in Ohio.”
I agree. I think the VP is very impressive and would not be rolled over...but I also think Vance is smart and slick and would be impressive as well. I think he's wrong on every single issue, but I think his delivery would be strong.
As a young lawyer, the first time I negotiated with them, the business agent asked for my shoe size...for the concrete overshoes. The way to promotion was to break the legs of the incumbent. I lived half way between Pgh and Cleveland. In the 70's they had open warfare with the steelhaulers (FASH). Were Republicans starting with Nixon...the president of the Cleveland faction's father had lived in my home town. I represented the former business agent from Youngstown in a couple of mundane zoning/real estate matters. He had a residence in Vegas, courtesy of the Cleveland mob, who had been in Cuba, left before Castro. They didn't know that the president of the union was an FBI informant.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackie_Presser
This is gold....you should write this in a book. My dad was a Teamster; had met Hoffa a few times and knew guys like Tony Pro. If you've seen Casino, it was the Teamster's pension fund that was giving the mob money for casinos.
Later I had a colleague who had been assigned to follow the Teamsters by DOJ. My dad was a DA. Later was a special prosecutor. I remember shooting wars - trucker v trucker- on I-80, Youngstown, Akron....-
Someone should check out the alleged relation of Marco Rubio's family to the Cleveland mob.
Well it seems to me he is a Trumper. He has met with him, big smiles, etc. Even if I had to meet with him, you couldn't get me to look so happy to be near him. Just my opinion of course. On another note, I actually know someone who is anti union but gets happy when their union negotiates and gets their members better pay, better hours, back pay, etc. I'm not kidding. I believe there are Teamsters who like the union but will vote for Trump. No idea how many. Again, just my opinion.
Yeah - the pretend 'tough guy' thing can be appealing to them too. AND those other unions (police Fire etc) that are Republicans basking in their collective bargaining but have some kind of un Holy Alliance with the anti-union Republicans. I did think more of the Teamsters as a whole. Am waiting to see how this plays out (and yes, the anti-union person benefitting from the union... a particular level of stupidly selfish)
I had a colleague like that too. She told me she couldn't see any good in Obama, but would be foolish not to have her kids on her health insurance until they were 26. She couldn't see the hypocrisy.
Anyone still thinking Joe can be pushed side at this time is thinking magically. A little over too days left and we are still having this conversation? It is unhelpful to the Biden campaign and unhelpful to the party. Democrats need to STOP. I want to know who the Senior Democrat is, within the party, that AOC is talking about in her social media postings. Joe has said, numerous times, he is staying. We would be smart to stop the FIRING SQUAD. Absolutely Kamala needs to be out there campaigning for her and Joe's re-election
The anonymous leaking is so undermining. If they have something to say, speak up on the record. It's unbelievable to me that party members are still declaring (to reporters) like it's a fact that "he can't win." How is that helpful?
Exactly! Undermining is a perfect word. And it applies to those of us that are out here busting our asses for the Dem party - up and down ballot. This applies to the donor class, and celebs too.
Apparently there is a guy who is supposed to be an old Dem operative named Steve Greenberg who is writing memos that we are in for a historic ass kicking if we don't dump Biden. WTF, if true.....saw it on Dkos so take it for what its worth.
I'll look him up. Well, that pretty much explains it 'old Dem operative'. We are no longer living in that 'old' world. It is a different time and the grassroots activists were not out there doing what we do. AND activists are extremely well informed. Thanks for the input.
I see Greenberg was an influential Clinton 'guy'. I really do not get why the Clinton gang and Obama gang have it out for Biden. It doesn't make sense to me. Biden's been good for the country and Kamala is there if anything should 'go wrong'
trump is obviously a huge threat to the world. Increasingly I am convinced that Biden cannot beat trump. I am hopeful, though, that Harris or some other alternative will make sure that in 2024 trump ends up in prison, not the White House.
Trump is not going to prison. Biden is not leaving the ticket. Time to stop with these fantasies. At this point they are doing the work of maga. We have a flawed candidate that we have to drag over the finish line by the skin of our teeth so he can continue being a great President. Reality is here now.
Who is doing the work of MAGA? The fantasy may be that keeping Biden on the ticket is a winning formula. trump may well go to prison in 2024 if he is kept from the White House.
We all just need to keep our hands down and keep working, getting everyone we know, including young people, to vote for Biden/Harris, writing/postcarding/donating. We are motivated! Let's do this!
Just got off a phone call with some activists - yes post carding (I have a link below) but possibly now more importantly PHONEBANKING and CANVASSING - I know it can be uncomfortable, but that is what changes and engages voters. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
Like Morning Joe said, Joe has always been a gaffe machine. He has a speech impediment after-all. This doesn’t mean he’s an empty shell. Let’s rally around Biden, one of the most consequential President’s of my lifetime. Biden for the win 2024!
I didn't say he was ahead, I said he is favored to win. 538 has him at 53% chance to win, even though he is currently behind in the polls by a small margin.
Kind of curious if more recent data shows Nikki Haley voters sticking with their decision to support Biden over Trump. I personally know a few -- including my mom, who will definitely vote Biden -- but I'm wondering if any data has this holding up? As always, this would be yuuuge.
Asking because this hasn't emerged as a talking point much lately, despite Trump publicly snubbing those voters. Hoping this is from a lack of quality data; I've always been scared that Haley voters would rally around the Beast
The Congressional assault on Biden is over. The 16 Democrat representatives and 1 Democrat senator have taken their bat and ball and left the field. They are still whimpering their disloyal dissent. AOC rightfully called for them to retire due to their incontrovertibly poor leadership. In Detroit, Joe Biden had stood up robustly to stand them down. He did so with a vengeance to defend his well-considered path for America. As he left, I scrutinized him ascending the steps of Air Force One. In good manners, he let Jill go first. I was surprised when he dropped her hand. They were showing that he was not being propped up. I think that was intentional. He let her get a step or two ahead. He reached for and grabbed the handrail. He took careful steps going up. He was paying close attention to his ascent, but mindful neither to be too slow, nor too fast. He knows his every step, here on out, must be perfect. He is a very, very wise man, politically astute, on a mission for America. I will vote for that.
I find myself again agreeing with Carl. I'm an old Boomer and can see how AOC has matured over the past few years. Using the word "retire" is perfect. Not aggressive, not demeaning, but gets the point across. Recall it was AOC's questioning of Michael Cohen in 2019 that led to Tish James civil lawsuit for fraud. Trump was fined $464 million (on appeal). Representation matters.
He’s going to have to. Hey, remember when he ran for president? Could go back to all the way to that 2020 primary era, in terms of what he’s saying today.
You lost me. I was not referring to our party. I do see it is always the Democratic Party, but I am referring to specific representatives that are Democrats. I don’t have a style guide like I do in other writing. Guide me to one please.
Democratic senator,Democratic representatives. It's not just a grammar issue; the use of the term the way you did so is intended by our opponents to be pejorative. If you did not know that it's ok.Let's agree to move on.
I am not in agreement and requested the style guide, not the Fisher take. We need an arbitrator. I don’t get the pejorative relationship. Democrats are elected representatives.
It 's not my take. The use of "Democrat" politicians rather than "Democratic" is done to irritate Democrats and liberals, because it is not only incorrect usage ( and as Democrats we get to decide what we are called ) but has a subtle ( or maybe not so subtle ) emphasis on "rat." But a lot of folks may not know this. It was often used by Joe McCarthy; implies that Democrats aren't really Democratic. As for style, the proper use is always "Democratic." Senator Brown is a Democrat; he is a member of the Democratic party, not the Democrat party. It seems that you were not aware of this and surely didn't mean any harm; I was just trying to let you know the difference. We've spent way too much time on this. If I have offended you, then I am sorry, I did not intend to. I will not comment further on this.
According to Oxford Dictionaries, the use of Democrat rather than the adjective Democratic is in order to maintain a distinction from the broader, positive associations of the adjective democratic with democracy and egalitarianism. My intent was to be specific and to avoid association with democracy. It was 16 Democrat representatives and 1 Democrat Senator. Their actions were way less than democratic, as Biden has the needed votes. That distinction was needed in my opinion. As to whether I am right or wrong, I care to know but from a source above our pay grades. You cannot have the last word here. lol. No offense taken at all. I have enjoyed the input and I worried of this topic as I was originally writing my post. We both may be enlighten if I find the right style guide. I lived with the GPO Style Guide for decades. I will look in Chicago.
Adam Schiff is still stirring up trouble with his rich group of Netenyahu friends. That will ease off, Biden knows how to win, and is working on the Blue Wall. We will win, thankfully for everyone.
Here’s a little hopium of my own to share. This morning I got an email from “postcards to swing states” . They are pausing sign-up for the moment because of the overwhelming number of volunteers who have reached out and they need to catch up. In the last two weeks alone over 19,000 volunteers have requested. 5.5 million postcards. In early August, they will resume taking orders with a goal of 29 million postcards to be sent out. Maybe this kind of news isn’t reported in the media or reflected in the polls but it’s a wonderful thing to see such an amazing amount of enthusiasm in a grassroots organization.
Thank you! I am working on 600 of those Postcards to Swing States already to send to NV, MI & PA! I was going to try to fit in 200 more somehow—but it sounds like others are really stepping up! (I have completed 300 of my 600 so far ✍️.) Thank you, fellow enthusiastic Democracy lovers!
Postcards to voters are SO awesome! Think about it~ they're the least invasive way to get the all important election news into their homes! Who doesn't love a little piece of mail? I've seen such cute ones! People are so clever...
This doesn’t surprise me. I haven’t been writing postcards but after the last week, I convinced my friends (didn’t take much convincing, I suggested and they all agreed immediately) to turn our upcoming girls weekend at the beach into a postcard writing weekend- I ordered 600 postcards for us to complete.
I’m not a unique person, so if I’m motivated, others are as well.
I’ve also been following a doctor in PA who has been knocking on doors talking to voters in his state. His list is Dems and independents who aren’t regular voters, and it’s so encouraging to listen as house after house tells him that they’re absolutely voting for Biden and Dems in November. He’s knocked over a 1000 doors and spoken to over 200 voters so far.
I got the same email. Hope the 200 cards for North Carolina that I ordered last week are right around the corner.
Also, I do hope one of the deep-pocked sponsors of the Biden campaign – perhaps someone pausing their donations in protest – will donate a few million dollars to Field Team 6. And likewise some of the grassroot Hispanic voter registration and GOTV operations.
We need a Leonard Leo - but a good guy though who cares about democracy. Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the republicans never lack for big money. I am still on Twitter and it's awful but so many people post there that I like to read. Elon Musk is donating something like $45 million a month to Trump.
I have a BlueSky account. I haven't been on it in a long time. I am also on Threads. I did like the set up on BlueSky. I will check it out again. Thank you.
Thanks for what you do -- if you are waiting, try phonebanking or texting via mobilize or you can get our postcards - although they might be sold out for this campaign but the next one is one deck. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
I understand you can also sign up to do texting, aiming to inspire more people to register to vote. If I recall Daniel Solomon correctly, a mere $25 lets you send texts to 1400 Democratic-leaning constituents, inspiring them to register and make their voices heard loud and clear in November!
https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks Check out this as well as it's free and you can do it mostly anytime. You need an actual computer, and little bit of tech savvy, but the trainings are great.
Also want to shout out https://postcardstovoters.org/ They are currently writing for a school board in Florida, will be doing a lot of key campaigns in the Fall. Also, they do a lot about registering to Vote by Mail in Florida, which helps increase turnout.
How much headway are they making registering ex-felons who have served their time? Or has that process been made insurmountably difficult by Governor DeSantis?
On a related note, last night I was on a Zoom call where Red Wine & Blue hosted Heather Cox Richardson. An intense discussion ensued about Trump’s Project 2025 – and what we can do to stop it! Everyone received information and tool-kits to make other voters aware of the danger America faces.
There were 35,000 people on that call. Afterwards it broke into separate Zoom action groups, organized geographically, to prepare concrete action.
Throughout our nation, patriotic defenders of American democracy are rising!
That was a great call, I was on as well. We are expanding our numbers to take action every single day - I just got an email from Postcards to Swing States that they have been swamped with requests for more cards and now have a huge backlog. This is great news, folks! Keep going!
Am writing 100 Blue Wave and 100 Postcards To Swing States in addition to 100s of other postcards and Vote Forward letters. Alas, I registered, and couldn’t log into the HCR call, think there is a YouTube recording.
I was on that Zoom call too! But I had to leave right before they brook into small groups. I wish I had been able to stay. It was great but I would have preferred to hear more from Heather Cox Richardson who just has a way of explaining Project 2025 in simple terms.
Thanks for the heads up about Heather’s Zoom with Red Wine and Blue. I’m subscribed to all things Heather but missed this one. Just found it on YouTube. (I listen to the Red Wine and Blue pod “The Suburban Women Problem.” Great hosts and guests, very informative.)
Historian Heather Cox Richardson is a paragon! Most mornings, I read her latest "Letter from an American" and any new Hopium from Simon before checking the news.
The same! Especially in these past chaotic weeks. These two paragons help me stay grounded and balanced before heading out to check other news sources. BTW, have you listened to Heather’s pod of her daily letters? I like to read the Letter, then listen to Heather narrating it as soon as it’s available.
I was on that call too! I was getting dizzy when they asked participants to put where they were zooming from in the chat! It was whizzing by too quickly for me!
Jessica Craven posted another opportunity to get a dose of Heather Cox Richardson this week on Wed at 7 pm:
I clicked on links made available in the chat during the Zoom call. They might also be in the follow-up email I received from Red Wine & Blue. I you have an email, I would be happy to send you the documents. Mine is my moniker at gmail.
Here’s a link where you can watch the recorded Zoom call. Links might be in there.
Yes, great to see the support for this project. If anyone here would like to write a few postcards to PA or NV, I can send you some of mine. They will be labeled and include postage. I have a few people already helping me. I can also help you print labels to make the process more efficient. You can reach me at chev65nova-labels@yahoo.com. Thanks!
You can also try bluewavepostcards.org. They have postcards also. Theirs are pretty quick to get out and they get mailed a week or two after you get them.
Thanks for giving us a shout out! We are about to sell out of our Michigan vote by mail campaign. And yes we send address labels and preprinted post cards so all you have to do is write a little phrase and send it out - you do have to supply postage. If we sell out field team 6 has some P25 registration cards to send to swing states.
A friend shared an earlier email from them asking people to be patient while they fulfilled requests in the pipeline. Apparently in the week or so after the debate they received a deluge of orders equivalent to the number of orders they were able to mail out for the entire month of June and it sounds like backlog was still growing - hence the pause.
I’ve got 200 postcards I’m doing for Postcards to Swing States right now. Instructions are not to mail them till October 15 so there’s plenty of time and anyone interested should reach out to them in August.
Just saw this on my feed this a.m. Have been waiting for my postcards for weeks. Just received notice that my postcards are being shipped by the end of the week. They just can't get the postcards in fast enough from their supplier.
Normal people love Biden and want him re-elected. The volunteer ground game in the purple states will be enormous, especially the Blue Wall.
Despite being a poor orator, Biden has been winning elections for 50 years. How? He knows how to win elections. There will be a huge move in Penn, Mi, Wi and Ne02 by his campaign, and he will win the election. I doubt any other Dem can do that, including Harris.
Let’s call a spade a spade.
The move against Biden from within the Democratic Party is orchestrated by rich donors who are friends of Netenyahu. They think Biden has been in sufficiently supportive of Israel.
Their assessment put is rubbish of course. Biden is the only President whose actions will succeed in establishing a 2 State Solution, which is fair for both peoples. Israel has nothing to fear from Biden.
Biden will win the election. The US, Israel and Palestine will all win. Let us support Joe and emphasise the danger and threat of Trumpism.
I know we are talking about how bad a pick JD Vance was, but I wanted to encourage everyone to keep doing the work. I just received an email this morning from Postcards to Swing States and they have been swamped with a surge of signups to write postcards to Democratic voters. In fact, they are increasing their goal from 25 million to 29 million.
We are making a difference and every little bit matters.
Simon may not agree with me on this, but I saw the YouGov polling yesterday of D Senate candidates. The D was up 12 pts in PA, 9 pts in MI and 6 pts in Michigan. Unless you think that there will be record numbers of ticket splitting this year, this race will tighten. Do not be discouraged. Keep working.
So, the takeaway is it’s likely a close competitive race.
Real margin of error is much larger than what what a poll states:
“The real margin of error is often about double the one reported. The notion that a typical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are. Why is that? For starters, the margin of error addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance. But there are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: nonresponse, coverage error (where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled) and mismeasurement. Not only does the margin of error fail to account for those other sources of potential error, it implies to the public that they do not exist, which is not true.”
That's my view for sure. As you said, it's close and competitve and we all need to keep writing postcards, manning phonebanks, canvassing voters and whatever else needs to be done.
Isn't this good news? That the Senate Dems are up? I know 6 points is not a great lead but it's a lead, no? What am I missing. Sorry. This is above my pay grade sometimes.
Yes, I believe it is good news. My point (that I wasn't clear on) is that if the Senate D candidate is up 12 pts in PA, then I find it unlikely that Biden is down in PA. People don't split their tickets like that anymore.
Biden has consistently been trailing the Democratic candidates for Senate. I have long wondered how this will play out. Historically, and especially in today’s polarized political climate, I think it is highly unlikely that such a large proportion of voters will do ticket splitting.
If I am right, the obvious question that is all too little discussed:
– Will our Democratic Senate candidates lift up Biden-Harris?
– Or will Biden pull down and decrease the vote for our Senate candidates?
I firmly believe it will be the former, that our great Senate candidates will prevail, and that they will help Team Biden-Harris prevail as well!
Very interested in any thoughts others may have on this key question.
I agree that is the question. And obviously, I agree with you. But that's what the data over the last two years shows as well. Particularly in the 3 states where I saw the polling, PA WI and MI. D's have outperformed the polls and prior elections almost everywhere since 2022, so I suspect that the overall polling is not any more accurate now than it has been.
It's a strange thing to see Biden trail D candidates for Senate, again b/c I don't think that there will be ticket splitting. And it certainly could go the other direction. But again, that's not the trend we have seen the last two years. Just one guy's thoughts.
Many pundits have made the point that midterm elections and special elections are not indicative of Presidential Elections, when, generally, turnout is far higher.
This time around, I hope and pray that those pundits are woefully wrong.
Have heard the same and have considered that. I wish I had something more concrete to say, other than it would be a big turnaround from the trend we have seen. I just don't think this country really wants more chaos and authoritarianism, when push comes to shove.
Midterms and special plus abortion ballots have some tendacy towards presidential elections there was a diary over on daily Kos showing that plus the a tale of 3 cities over there is interesting
Historically, there are no reverse coattails and the lower races succumb to the dynamics in the upper race. That’s the worry - Biden will drag down both our Senate and House candidates and we get the nightmare GOP trifecta. That will be the end of democracy.
We have to be realistic. The polling data is dire right now. A statistically tied race with Biden slightly behind in the aggregate and only polling at 4O% is really bad. Yes, Trump is a weak candidate but voters are saying Biden is weaker. On top of all that, Biden seems to have no plausible path to break a ceiling of the mid 40s. His campaign has been unable to move the needle for months.
I adore Joe. I think he should pass the torch to someone with a much higher ceiling. Yet, I worry he is getting horrible guidance from his inner circle. Democracy is at stake.
There is no mechanism in the Democratic Party to “pass the torch.” The Biden delegates are committed. The virtual part of the convention for his nomination is coming up at the end of July. Just curious: what procedure have you been told about that would supersede these protocols?
If Biden understood how dire the data was and that most any replacement, including Harris, has a much higher ceiling, he could release the delegates to vote as they like. They are not contractually bound. Even Biden said this.
Most proposals have been for him to release to Harris.
Remember, since dobbs, dems have been outperforming the polls by a big margin. I dont believe the race will be as close as people think but we should still put in the work obviously.
" Historically, there’s been little hard data about what kinds of voters split their tickets. One study in 2010 found that ticket-splitting was more common among white voters, as well as those with a lot of trust in government, but Kuriwaki’s more recent research found that race didn’t have a significant effect. His studies showed that ticket-splitting was most common among low-information voters, true moderates, and people whose views don’t fit neatly within the political spectrum."
The line about low information voters really hit me! I'm all about post carding, I live in what will most likely be a blue state, so canvassing I can't do, but phonebanking yes! Texting yes. I'm interested in postcards with P25/A47 information to send out to swing voters.
It’s possible that’s the answer. Seems like a huge change in a short amount of time and since polling has become less accurate over the past years, I’m still skeptical.
I have heard some say that it is Biden's age that is really driving people away from Biden or rather not his age - but that he looks his age. I read an article about the youth vote as well, those under 30 are more prone to 3rd party candidates, and the "change" candidate. Which might explain something.
The "change" candidate? Wow! We need to inform voters about the massive change that President Biden has brought! This is the most transformative American administration since at least LBJ.
It’s deeply frustrating to see how little credit for its phenomenal accomplishments, or coverage, Team Biden-Harris receives from the news media.
Historically, there are not reverse coattails. Almost never happens. The top of the ticket controls voting dynamics, and that’s why so many Dems and Dem organizations are freaking out right now. They worry we get a GOP trifecta with Biden at the top of the ticket.
It’s doesn’t happen. There is no historical precedent whatsoever. On the contrary, the top of the ticket, if weak, always drags down the bottom of the ticket.
Just being realistic here.
If Biden can’t somehow magically turn around his numbers (with youth especially), it is exceedingly likely he takes down several Senate candidates and a slew in the House.
JCOK, can you point us to a study, with analysis and data that documents your claim that "historically, there are not reverse coattails"? (Especially studies that include data from recent elections that take place in our hyper-polarized political climate.) I would be most interest in a data-driven discussion of this topic!
Seriously? There are also *tons of hits* if I Google "Fake moon landing", "Biden stole 2020 election" or "Lizard people control humanity".
The claim is yours to document. Just point me to one single recent study from a reliable source. Really not interested in having to sort the wheat from the chaff – and certainly not based on googling.
Simon: "More Data Showing How Much Harris Is Bringing To The Ticket. She Needs A Much Higher Profile."
I fully agree with Simon but would expand this:
In light of the shooting, the President’s campaign has paused ads and is doing a reset. In my opinion they should do a reset, with less focus on Joe. Instead, the focus should be on Team Biden-Harris, its deep competency, its accomplishments, and its vision and plans for the future.
This means sharing the stage with Kamala and key members of the President’s team, such as the highly articulate Pete Buttigieg, and with advantage sending them out on the campaign road by themselves.
My sister-in-law, my friend and I got surveys about Kamala Harris. I never fill out surveys but I did this time. So did my sister-in-law. SIL got three and I got two. My friend didn't realize she should have taken it. She will in the future if she gets another one. I found it interesting that surveys have been going out about Kamala Harris.
Trump looked old, tired, weak and scared last night. He doesn't want to do this. Last night should've been right up his alley - a large crowd, totally devoted to him, ready to welcome their martyr. He survived an assassination attempt with barely an injury. His pet judge just dismissed the documents case. But he walks out like he's heading towards his demise, and falls asleep on the floor of the convention. We keep up the pressure, and he will crack. This is the end of MAGA. Their cult leader is too tired.
HappyLiberal, if you are going to be here and play such an aggressive and divisive role, you are going to need to operate under your actual name and not a pseudonym. I have asked people to keep calm and be respectful of one another as we go through this rough patch together. You have posted many times, today, angrily. So if you want to stay here and keep contributing you will need to do so as an actual person. Thank you.
That is a little too passive aggressive, I'm sorry. I just asked that if you are going to be so aggressive and so combative that you do so as an actual person and not "Happy Liberal." I did not ask you to stop or alter your posts in any way. I just asked that if you were going to come in here so heavy you needed to it as a person.
As someone who was there, what did it feel like when McGovern replaced his VP mid campaign?
I don’t doubt that you do….but maybe consider that those who support Biden remaining on the ticket also care equally and disagree with your assessment. Whatever happens is going to be a disappointing decision for a significant chunk of our D family, and we will all have to be part of soothing and healing the wounds quickly…maybe start now by expressing your opinion of who the nominee should be with greater respect for the President’s service & his supporters belief in him, as well as expressing your commitment to Team Democracy regardless of what decision is made….and I would give the exact same advice to Congressman Schiff.
Thank you, Simon. I'm tired of reading these commenters divisive comments. We need to stay united, focused on defeating fascism at every level of government, and not make the same mistake as we did in 2016 when the Bernie Bros refused to back HRC and caused so much divisiveness at the 2016 DNC convention. Still Ridin' with Biden/Harris2024 VoteBlueNoMatterWho2024💙
thank you, Simon
Thank you! The sooner the better
I am so tired of people bashing our president.
David Jolly was on MSNBC a few nights ago and was extremely frustrated with those trying to push Biden out. He was pretty certain that Biden would win if everybody would rally around him!
Credit to The Guardian’s eminent Marina Hyde:
"Trump could be America’s Hitler."
– JD Vance (aka "America’s Martin Bormann")
NB. I sincerely hope a Democratic PAC already has the billboards in production!
I've been sayin'..... It's the Russians, stupid. Vance is Putin's choice for VP. "He is vehemently opposed to using more funds to help Ukraine and has blasted what he sees as Europe’s over-dependence on the United States when it comes to military investment. One senior EU official, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly on the issue, said in an interview Monday that the appointment of Vance was a “disaster” for Ukraine — and by extension for the European Union, which has backed Kyiv as it defends itself against Russian aggression." https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vice-president-nominee-jd-vance-republican-party-united-states-presidential-election-us-eu-relations-isolationism-foreign-policy/
IMHO the ethnic core of the Republican Party in his home state is now vulnerable. Trump won Ohio by 8% in 2020. I don't know this as a fact but I bet many of his 2020 ardent supporters were Slavic Americans. https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2024/04/23/jd-vances-dismissive-attitude-toward-ukraine-is-an-insult-to-70000-ukrainian-americans-in-ohio/ Add to that the veterans and military, their families and friends now opposed to him due to "not suckers or losers." As of today, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Moreno by 5% according to the polls.
According to the 2022 American Community Survey, about 8.2 million people in the United States, or roughly 2.5% of the population, reported Polish ancestry. This makes Polish Americans the largest Slavic ethnic group in the country, the second largest Central European group, and the eighth largest immigrant group overall. Add the Baltic states, Finland, etc.
Hopefully the word about Putin/Vance will affect the vote in WPa, MI, MI.
According to the 2022 American Community Survey, about 8.2 million people in the United States, or roughly 2.5% of the population, reported Polish ancestry.
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According to this Wikipedia article, there are 65K+ Polish Americans in OH, if you look at just 3 cities (Toledo, Cleveland, and Parma).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Polish-American_populations
Add to that the veterans and military, their families and friends now opposed to him due to "not suckers or losers."
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A friend of mine was a registered Republican until Trump, although I think she was more of an independent based on her voting record. Her dad was career military and nothing sets her off more quickly than Trump's take on veterans and the military. She has MAGA relatives so she calls me to vent about Trump and our current threat to Democracy. (My late parents were both WWII veterans).
Veterans. "Not suckers or losers" works. 4 million people on Facebook are veterans or active duty members. 12.5 million people on Facebook are family members of a veteran or an active duty member. 242 million people on Facebook are friends with one or more veterans or active duty members. Say the magic words daily, as a mantra on military, history sites, and see what happens. https://rvat.org/
Pet lovers love their pets.
I also use "Don't Slit Your Own Throat." As president, Trump tried and failed to cut benefits drastically. Some Republicans wanted to replace the entire system. See. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Trump, House Republican Cuts to SSI Would Harm Children With Disabilities, Sept. 18, 2017, Kathleen Romig and Guillermo Herrera. https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/trump-house-republican-cuts-to-ssi-would-harm-children-with-disabilities
“The Trump proposal would cut SSI by more than $8 billion over the next decade, shrinking benefits for roughly a quarter of a million children with disabilities by between 38 and 66 percent. It would also increase SSI’s administrative costs and improper payments”.
I think there are quite a few Americans with Eastern European ancestry in swing states. Alex Vindman in ads (or any other well-spoken dem with Eastern European cred?) should have some effect, right?
Democratic Messaging Project (a PAC) -- we have static billboards, a robust digital campaign and digital rolling billboard trucks in the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin starting in August thru Election Day. We are not shying away from creative, provocative messaging and we sure as heck will be putting JD Vance - in all his MAGA glory - front and center. We've already started on our social media. And, we're out with a rolling billboard truck right now at the Republican National Convention where our work is being picked up by numerous media outlets. Folks can go to our website to see what we're doing and check out our amazing creative from our genius graphic artist, Scotty Sandow. www.blueforyou.org
Here is a suggested billboard, pending approval from Ms Daniels:
“This November, help me spank Donald into submission. He’s a loser!"
– Stormy Daniels
Suggested illustration: closeup of a Stormy winking, holding a rolled-up issue of Forbes Magazine with Trump on the cover. Oh, and be sure to place one near Mar-a-Lago!
PS. This would also make a great TV ad.
We are not shying away from creative, provocative messaging....
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Your comment reminded me of a local Charlotte (NC) ad agency's provocative campaign to encourage people to get the Covid vaccine. It went viral nationwide and reached a whole lot of people (many who never actually saw the truck with the message), so here's hoping your billboards do too!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/09/21/funeral-home-truck-vaccine-charlotte/
Excellent! I would like to see more examples of our current creative messaging.
I have suggested ads and billboards featuring Stormy Daniels, asking voters for help to "spank Donald" in the upcoming election.
I would like to see Alex Vindman reminding Eastern European Americans what trump has done to Ukraine.
Perhaps Vindman can be featured in some ads? I’d like to see him on the campaign trail, addressing voters with Ukrainian, Polish and other East-European background, as well as Independent and Republican voters who are concerned about national defense.
Exactly. I want to see Vindman on the campaign trail
I had a 100 year old friend who I’m very sorry to say died recently. She lived through Hitler and called Trump “Little Hitler.” I like the diminishing adjective, but I wouldn’t take it as underestimating Trump’s destructive bent.
In 2016 it was Pence because no else wanted it. There was no strategy involved.
No, Pence was chosen by Paul Manafort. One feature of Pence was to appeal to evangelical voters.
After everyone else he asked declined. You can google it.
I haven't found evidence that Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie declined. But thank you for your reply, I wanted to move our discussion past the glibness. Imo the VP selection is/ was made by T's overlords, not T himself and in this instance, because T is such a wreck in public, the campaigning will be taken up by Vance. Good for us because he is so unappealing [polite term]
Agreed.
Not only the campaigning - also the playbook which I imagine he has already sworn to implement.
Vance publicly holds many beliefs that I, and a majority of Americans, find unpalatable.
Vance 2016: Trump might be America’s Hitler.
Vance 2024: Trump might be America’s Hitler, but that’s okay because I have on a brown shirt and red armband.
Time to denigrate this loathsome individual with all the things he’s been recorded saying. Simon has helped us by collecting the links, let’s make sure people see them.
Lets remember Vance beat Tim Ryan, easily. Clearly he is palatable to many people and so is maga. Otherwise neither would exist. I don't know what the VP debate plan is but if there will be one Harris better be prepared and not just assume Vance will self destruct while she stands there passively.
Having voted for VP Harris many times in CA, I can say she never does anything “passively.” She is a brilliant woman of action!
Yeah, research shows 30% of people want a king. It makes their lives simpler and gives them structure. That doesn’t mean they’re the majority.
40% of people vote in very national election and 30% never vote, and 30% vote some of the time. What we need to do is turnout as many voters from reasonable majority of that remaining 30% who do not want a theocracy.
Harris is going to bring it. We need to too.
Like I said yesterday, it motivates most of us to worry less, do more. Gestalt therapy? FIGHT BACK! Register more Democrats. Swamp Republicans. Millions of unregistered trend Democratic. In the past 2 years 84,000 have been purged in Baghdad By the Sea. .
FT 6 has texted well over a million in the past several days. Thanks to a donor, texts to Arizona today and tomorrow. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Thursday is Florida day on FT 6 Textarcade. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24bamk.
Also Florida day on FT 6 phonebank. https://www.fieldteam6.org/actions
Field Team 6 also launched Project-2025-themed postcard campaigns statewide for all the swing states and for target districts in several additional states. You can find these campaigns under the "Special Messaging" section.
https://fieldteam6.herokuapp.com/getting_started
Thanks for all you do! Sharing here if you are a post card writer - I work for BWPM but I do ROV, FT6 and VF as well - here is a link to our latest campaign https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
Daniel, you said "thanks to a donor..." Singular. Has FT6 recently received a large donation from a deep-pocket donor? I have been hoping this would happen!
Would you kindly tell us a bit more?
All I know.
Im signing up of some mobilize and FT6 phonebanking. Also promoting my organization BWPM - we are about to sell out of our 1st set of postcards to get Michigan voters to sign up for mail in ballots.https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
“Trump went on to endorse Vance late in the GOP primary. That, and the outside $10M ad blitz, are clearly the only reasons that Vance went on to win.
BUT….even with all that help, and in a state where the GOP Governor (DeWine) defeated the Democratic candidate by more than 25 points, and the rest of the GOP ticket won by the high teens or low 20s, (judicial races by the low teens), Vance only won by just over 6 points. As dramatic an underperformance of candidates on the same ticket as you’ll see in Ohio.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/davidpepper/p/breaking-view-from-ohio-the-short?r=fqsxl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
I agree. I think the VP is very impressive and would not be rolled over...but I also think Vance is smart and slick and would be impressive as well. I think he's wrong on every single issue, but I think his delivery would be strong.
Thoughts on the Teamsters?
My thoughts- they’re scared Trump will win so they’re appeasing him. It’s wildly disappointing.
I think they are playing both sides of the coin too
As Lawrence O'Donnell pointed out last night, the Teamsters' association with the Republican Party goes back decades to the days of Jimmy Hoffa.
You know about Jimmy Hoffa, et al. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoffa_(film)
As a young lawyer, the first time I negotiated with them, the business agent asked for my shoe size...for the concrete overshoes. The way to promotion was to break the legs of the incumbent. I lived half way between Pgh and Cleveland. In the 70's they had open warfare with the steelhaulers (FASH). Were Republicans starting with Nixon...the president of the Cleveland faction's father had lived in my home town. I represented the former business agent from Youngstown in a couple of mundane zoning/real estate matters. He had a residence in Vegas, courtesy of the Cleveland mob, who had been in Cuba, left before Castro. They didn't know that the president of the union was an FBI informant.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jackie_Presser
This is gold....you should write this in a book. My dad was a Teamster; had met Hoffa a few times and knew guys like Tony Pro. If you've seen Casino, it was the Teamster's pension fund that was giving the mob money for casinos.
Later I had a colleague who had been assigned to follow the Teamsters by DOJ. My dad was a DA. Later was a special prosecutor. I remember shooting wars - trucker v trucker- on I-80, Youngstown, Akron....-
Someone should check out the alleged relation of Marco Rubio's family to the Cleveland mob.
They did a TV movie re Jackie Presser....
Well it seems to me he is a Trumper. He has met with him, big smiles, etc. Even if I had to meet with him, you couldn't get me to look so happy to be near him. Just my opinion of course. On another note, I actually know someone who is anti union but gets happy when their union negotiates and gets their members better pay, better hours, back pay, etc. I'm not kidding. I believe there are Teamsters who like the union but will vote for Trump. No idea how many. Again, just my opinion.
Yeah - the pretend 'tough guy' thing can be appealing to them too. AND those other unions (police Fire etc) that are Republicans basking in their collective bargaining but have some kind of un Holy Alliance with the anti-union Republicans. I did think more of the Teamsters as a whole. Am waiting to see how this plays out (and yes, the anti-union person benefitting from the union... a particular level of stupidly selfish)
Hey my neighbors couldn't stand Obama, were against ACA, but were glad their son qualified for it. Seriously.
I had a colleague like that too. She told me she couldn't see any good in Obama, but would be foolish not to have her kids on her health insurance until they were 26. She couldn't see the hypocrisy.
Right! Shaking my head. You can't reason with this type of person.
Anyone still thinking Joe can be pushed side at this time is thinking magically. A little over too days left and we are still having this conversation? It is unhelpful to the Biden campaign and unhelpful to the party. Democrats need to STOP. I want to know who the Senior Democrat is, within the party, that AOC is talking about in her social media postings. Joe has said, numerous times, he is staying. We would be smart to stop the FIRING SQUAD. Absolutely Kamala needs to be out there campaigning for her and Joe's re-election
The anonymous leaking is so undermining. If they have something to say, speak up on the record. It's unbelievable to me that party members are still declaring (to reporters) like it's a fact that "he can't win." How is that helpful?
Exactly! Undermining is a perfect word. And it applies to those of us that are out here busting our asses for the Dem party - up and down ballot. This applies to the donor class, and celebs too.
Claudia, I agree 100%!
Apparently there is a guy who is supposed to be an old Dem operative named Steve Greenberg who is writing memos that we are in for a historic ass kicking if we don't dump Biden. WTF, if true.....saw it on Dkos so take it for what its worth.
I'll look him up. Well, that pretty much explains it 'old Dem operative'. We are no longer living in that 'old' world. It is a different time and the grassroots activists were not out there doing what we do. AND activists are extremely well informed. Thanks for the input.
I think you mean Stan Greenberg who a longtime Democratic pollster and strategist and married to Cong. Rosa DeLauro.
Yes. Just learned that too.
I see Greenberg was an influential Clinton 'guy'. I really do not get why the Clinton gang and Obama gang have it out for Biden. It doesn't make sense to me. Biden's been good for the country and Kamala is there if anything should 'go wrong'
trump is obviously a huge threat to the world. Increasingly I am convinced that Biden cannot beat trump. I am hopeful, though, that Harris or some other alternative will make sure that in 2024 trump ends up in prison, not the White House.
Trump is not going to prison. Biden is not leaving the ticket. Time to stop with these fantasies. At this point they are doing the work of maga. We have a flawed candidate that we have to drag over the finish line by the skin of our teeth so he can continue being a great President. Reality is here now.
Who is doing the work of MAGA? The fantasy may be that keeping Biden on the ticket is a winning formula. trump may well go to prison in 2024 if he is kept from the White House.
We all just need to keep our hands down and keep working, getting everyone we know, including young people, to vote for Biden/Harris, writing/postcarding/donating. We are motivated! Let's do this!
Just got off a phone call with some activists - yes post carding (I have a link below) but possibly now more importantly PHONEBANKING and CANVASSING - I know it can be uncomfortable, but that is what changes and engages voters. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
The ticket is set in two days. If Biden were to be replaced it had to happen a week ago.
Edit - two weeks not two days.
Explain, please.
Sorry, I had the timeframe wrong upon further investigation. It's more like two weeks.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/biden-dnc-vote-nomination-states-2024-election
Like Morning Joe said, Joe has always been a gaffe machine. He has a speech impediment after-all. This doesn’t mean he’s an empty shell. Let’s rally around Biden, one of the most consequential President’s of my lifetime. Biden for the win 2024!
Why are you convinced that Biden can't win? He's favored in the 538 forecast right now.
Biden isn’t ahead, and it’s only going to get worse. And that’s despite Biden massively outspending trump in swing states. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
I didn't say he was ahead, I said he is favored to win. 538 has him at 53% chance to win, even though he is currently behind in the polls by a small margin.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
I disagree. Biden is the only one who can beat Trump.
https://youtu.be/0yoPnWPduHo
Kind of curious if more recent data shows Nikki Haley voters sticking with their decision to support Biden over Trump. I personally know a few -- including my mom, who will definitely vote Biden -- but I'm wondering if any data has this holding up? As always, this would be yuuuge.
Asking because this hasn't emerged as a talking point much lately, despite Trump publicly snubbing those voters. Hoping this is from a lack of quality data; I've always been scared that Haley voters would rally around the Beast
The Congressional assault on Biden is over. The 16 Democrat representatives and 1 Democrat senator have taken their bat and ball and left the field. They are still whimpering their disloyal dissent. AOC rightfully called for them to retire due to their incontrovertibly poor leadership. In Detroit, Joe Biden had stood up robustly to stand them down. He did so with a vengeance to defend his well-considered path for America. As he left, I scrutinized him ascending the steps of Air Force One. In good manners, he let Jill go first. I was surprised when he dropped her hand. They were showing that he was not being propped up. I think that was intentional. He let her get a step or two ahead. He reached for and grabbed the handrail. He took careful steps going up. He was paying close attention to his ascent, but mindful neither to be too slow, nor too fast. He knows his every step, here on out, must be perfect. He is a very, very wise man, politically astute, on a mission for America. I will vote for that.
I’ve always thought AOC was great- progressive but also pragmatic, and she’s been right on with her commentary.
She is growing in her job. I find her quite good and gaining in maturity. Bernie has her under his wing, I think. It is a great place for her.
I find myself again agreeing with Carl. I'm an old Boomer and can see how AOC has matured over the past few years. Using the word "retire" is perfect. Not aggressive, not demeaning, but gets the point across. Recall it was AOC's questioning of Michael Cohen in 2019 that led to Tish James civil lawsuit for fraud. Trump was fined $464 million (on appeal). Representation matters.
Karen, people are starting to talk.
I’m so disappointed in my Colorado senator Michael Bennett. I haven’t heard lately whether he’s changed his stance.
He’s going to have to. Hey, remember when he ran for president? Could go back to all the way to that 2020 primary era, in terms of what he’s saying today.
I remember getting requests to support "this Dem." I want my money back.
Carl, please use Democratic when referring to our party, not "Democrat." We don't want to reinforce the right's framing.
You lost me. I was not referring to our party. I do see it is always the Democratic Party, but I am referring to specific representatives that are Democrats. I don’t have a style guide like I do in other writing. Guide me to one please.
Your comment is gratuitous. Simon taught me (the hard way) not to do that.
Democratic senator,Democratic representatives. It's not just a grammar issue; the use of the term the way you did so is intended by our opponents to be pejorative. If you did not know that it's ok.Let's agree to move on.
I am not in agreement and requested the style guide, not the Fisher take. We need an arbitrator. I don’t get the pejorative relationship. Democrats are elected representatives.
It 's not my take. The use of "Democrat" politicians rather than "Democratic" is done to irritate Democrats and liberals, because it is not only incorrect usage ( and as Democrats we get to decide what we are called ) but has a subtle ( or maybe not so subtle ) emphasis on "rat." But a lot of folks may not know this. It was often used by Joe McCarthy; implies that Democrats aren't really Democratic. As for style, the proper use is always "Democratic." Senator Brown is a Democrat; he is a member of the Democratic party, not the Democrat party. It seems that you were not aware of this and surely didn't mean any harm; I was just trying to let you know the difference. We've spent way too much time on this. If I have offended you, then I am sorry, I did not intend to. I will not comment further on this.
According to Oxford Dictionaries, the use of Democrat rather than the adjective Democratic is in order to maintain a distinction from the broader, positive associations of the adjective democratic with democracy and egalitarianism. My intent was to be specific and to avoid association with democracy. It was 16 Democrat representatives and 1 Democrat Senator. Their actions were way less than democratic, as Biden has the needed votes. That distinction was needed in my opinion. As to whether I am right or wrong, I care to know but from a source above our pay grades. You cannot have the last word here. lol. No offense taken at all. I have enjoyed the input and I worried of this topic as I was originally writing my post. We both may be enlighten if I find the right style guide. I lived with the GPO Style Guide for decades. I will look in Chicago.
Fisher - you are absolutely right.
Noise from the peanut gallery was not solicited. Lol
Adam Schiff is still stirring up trouble with his rich group of Netenyahu friends. That will ease off, Biden knows how to win, and is working on the Blue Wall. We will win, thankfully for everyone.
Hey Carl, can you explain further about the congressional dems backing down? Do you mean they've reversed their stance or have they shut up?
You don’t hear them in the news now. I refer you to Robert Hubbell’s post today. https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id=271358&post_id=146699611&utm_source=post-email-title&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=false&r=3m1bs&token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo2MDY3MDAwLCJwb3N0X2lkIjoxNDY2OTk2MTEsImlhdCI6MTcyMTE5NDY2MywiZXhwIjoxNzIzNzg2NjYzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMjcxMzU4Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.MLb7ls4PSf0vv9XRc9yd1-H0SytdYOqNVmjwqsSkkuI
Here’s a little hopium of my own to share. This morning I got an email from “postcards to swing states” . They are pausing sign-up for the moment because of the overwhelming number of volunteers who have reached out and they need to catch up. In the last two weeks alone over 19,000 volunteers have requested. 5.5 million postcards. In early August, they will resume taking orders with a goal of 29 million postcards to be sent out. Maybe this kind of news isn’t reported in the media or reflected in the polls but it’s a wonderful thing to see such an amazing amount of enthusiasm in a grassroots organization.
Thank you! I am working on 600 of those Postcards to Swing States already to send to NV, MI & PA! I was going to try to fit in 200 more somehow—but it sounds like others are really stepping up! (I have completed 300 of my 600 so far ✍️.) Thank you, fellow enthusiastic Democracy lovers!
🔥🔥Wow! Good for you Laura! I am waiting for my first 200.
Thank you for your pro-Democracy efforts, Cindy!
Same! They’re way behind because of the demand.
Yes thank you for all that you do! While you are waiting, phonebanking to texting is an option.
Postcards to voters are SO awesome! Think about it~ they're the least invasive way to get the all important election news into their homes! Who doesn't love a little piece of mail? I've seen such cute ones! People are so clever...
Thank you for all that you do!!!
This doesn’t surprise me. I haven’t been writing postcards but after the last week, I convinced my friends (didn’t take much convincing, I suggested and they all agreed immediately) to turn our upcoming girls weekend at the beach into a postcard writing weekend- I ordered 600 postcards for us to complete.
I’m not a unique person, so if I’m motivated, others are as well.
I’ve also been following a doctor in PA who has been knocking on doors talking to voters in his state. His list is Dems and independents who aren’t regular voters, and it’s so encouraging to listen as house after house tells him that they’re absolutely voting for Biden and Dems in November. He’s knocked over a 1000 doors and spoken to over 200 voters so far.
That is terrific! Thanks for sharing and for all you’re doing!
Thanks and thanks to your friends . Sisters all. Hear the call. Vote Blue .yes! write the post cards.
This is terrific news! I keep hearing doomsday sentiment and this is wonderful news and uplifting! Thank you for sharing.
good news, thanks!
Thank you for all that you do. you can always try out postcards as well if you run out. AND YES on the canvassing -such a good story -- check out flipthevote.org on how to help with that --https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
Thank you so much for sharing. I needed that today!
Ctkst1 Thank you for everything you and your friends are doing.
I got the same email. Hope the 200 cards for North Carolina that I ordered last week are right around the corner.
Also, I do hope one of the deep-pocked sponsors of the Biden campaign – perhaps someone pausing their donations in protest – will donate a few million dollars to Field Team 6. And likewise some of the grassroot Hispanic voter registration and GOTV operations.
We need a Leonard Leo - but a good guy though who cares about democracy. Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the republicans never lack for big money. I am still on Twitter and it's awful but so many people post there that I like to read. Elon Musk is donating something like $45 million a month to Trump.
Cindy, if the "people...I like to read" are positive and polite, please encourage them to move to BlueSky and quit Xitter. BlueSky is growing fast.
I also like spoutible - its pretty cool and fresh and I like the word cloud telling you what's trending
I have a BlueSky account. I haven't been on it in a long time. I am also on Threads. I did like the set up on BlueSky. I will check it out again. Thank you.
Oh please do! Meet me there!
I will try to log on. Haven't done it in months.
I think I just followed you
Xitter – the pronunciation is left as an exercise for the reader.
Thanks for what you do -- if you are waiting, try phonebanking or texting via mobilize or you can get our postcards - although they might be sold out for this campaign but the next one is one deck. https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
In the meantime, people who don't want to wait until August to send postcards to swing states could connect with Field Team 6. https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops
However, note that with Field Team 6, you have to pay for both postcards and postage. With Postcards to Swing States, you only pay for postage.
I understand you can also sign up to do texting, aiming to inspire more people to register to vote. If I recall Daniel Solomon correctly, a mere $25 lets you send texts to 1400 Democratic-leaning constituents, inspiring them to register and make their voices heard loud and clear in November!
https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks Check out this as well as it's free and you can do it mostly anytime. You need an actual computer, and little bit of tech savvy, but the trainings are great.
Awesome! Thanks for pointing this out.
Also want to shout out https://postcardstovoters.org/ They are currently writing for a school board in Florida, will be doing a lot of key campaigns in the Fall. Also, they do a lot about registering to Vote by Mail in Florida, which helps increase turnout.
How much headway are they making registering ex-felons who have served their time? Or has that process been made insurmountably difficult by Governor DeSantis?
On a related note, last night I was on a Zoom call where Red Wine & Blue hosted Heather Cox Richardson. An intense discussion ensued about Trump’s Project 2025 – and what we can do to stop it! Everyone received information and tool-kits to make other voters aware of the danger America faces.
There were 35,000 people on that call. Afterwards it broke into separate Zoom action groups, organized geographically, to prepare concrete action.
Throughout our nation, patriotic defenders of American democracy are rising!
Fantastic news! Thanks!
That was a great call, I was on as well. We are expanding our numbers to take action every single day - I just got an email from Postcards to Swing States that they have been swamped with requests for more cards and now have a huge backlog. This is great news, folks! Keep going!
Totally keep going -- We still have some postcards, and FT6 has them as well.
https://shop.bluewavepostcards.org/?source=substack-comment
Am writing 100 Blue Wave and 100 Postcards To Swing States in addition to 100s of other postcards and Vote Forward letters. Alas, I registered, and couldn’t log into the HCR call, think there is a YouTube recording.
I was on that Zoom call too! But I had to leave right before they brook into small groups. I wish I had been able to stay. It was great but I would have preferred to hear more from Heather Cox Richardson who just has a way of explaining Project 2025 in simple terms.
An opportunity for more HCR this week!
https://www.mobilize.us/nope/event/633957/?utm_source=chopwood
Thanks for the link! I’ll be there!
Oohhh ... I'll be there too. The Red, Wine and Blue call was awesome.
Thanks for the heads up about Heather’s Zoom with Red Wine and Blue. I’m subscribed to all things Heather but missed this one. Just found it on YouTube. (I listen to the Red Wine and Blue pod “The Suburban Women Problem.” Great hosts and guests, very informative.)
Historian Heather Cox Richardson is a paragon! Most mornings, I read her latest "Letter from an American" and any new Hopium from Simon before checking the news.
The same! Especially in these past chaotic weeks. These two paragons help me stay grounded and balanced before heading out to check other news sources. BTW, have you listened to Heather’s pod of her daily letters? I like to read the Letter, then listen to Heather narrating it as soon as it’s available.
I missed this as well and I follow HCR. Does anyone have a link to the recording?
What great news!
I was on that call too! I was getting dizzy when they asked participants to put where they were zooming from in the chat! It was whizzing by too quickly for me!
Jessica Craven posted another opportunity to get a dose of Heather Cox Richardson this week on Wed at 7 pm:
https://www.mobilize.us/nope/event/633957/?utm_source=chopwood
That chat was crazy!
I was on that Zoom as well. Super stuff!!! Lots of enthusiasm and great info.
Women united to save the nation!
Women – and at least one token man.
😂
where can we get our toolkit? thank you
I clicked on links made available in the chat during the Zoom call. They might also be in the follow-up email I received from Red Wine & Blue. I you have an email, I would be happy to send you the documents. Mine is my moniker at gmail.
Here’s a link where you can watch the recorded Zoom call. Links might be in there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZSM7LJgKXAo
Yes, great to see the support for this project. If anyone here would like to write a few postcards to PA or NV, I can send you some of mine. They will be labeled and include postage. I have a few people already helping me. I can also help you print labels to make the process more efficient. You can reach me at chev65nova-labels@yahoo.com. Thanks!
I got the same email - I have completed 300 to NC and 200 to FL, and just requested 200 more wherever needed. Thank you, postcard writers!
I got the same email. I know a couple of people who are going to sign up as soon as they start up again.
You can also try bluewavepostcards.org. They have postcards also. Theirs are pretty quick to get out and they get mailed a week or two after you get them.
Thank you.
Thanks for giving us a shout out! We are about to sell out of our Michigan vote by mail campaign. And yes we send address labels and preprinted post cards so all you have to do is write a little phrase and send it out - you do have to supply postage. If we sell out field team 6 has some P25 registration cards to send to swing states.
Thank you
Love to hear that, thanks! I've been writing for them for a few years and they're doing such great work.
A friend shared an earlier email from them asking people to be patient while they fulfilled requests in the pipeline. Apparently in the week or so after the debate they received a deluge of orders equivalent to the number of orders they were able to mail out for the entire month of June and it sounds like backlog was still growing - hence the pause.
I’ve got 200 postcards I’m doing for Postcards to Swing States right now. Instructions are not to mail them till October 15 so there’s plenty of time and anyone interested should reach out to them in August.
💪💙
Glad I already have my 200!
Just saw this on my feed this a.m. Have been waiting for my postcards for weeks. Just received notice that my postcards are being shipped by the end of the week. They just can't get the postcards in fast enough from their supplier.
Good news, and unsurprising.
Normal people love Biden and want him re-elected. The volunteer ground game in the purple states will be enormous, especially the Blue Wall.
Despite being a poor orator, Biden has been winning elections for 50 years. How? He knows how to win elections. There will be a huge move in Penn, Mi, Wi and Ne02 by his campaign, and he will win the election. I doubt any other Dem can do that, including Harris.
Let’s call a spade a spade.
The move against Biden from within the Democratic Party is orchestrated by rich donors who are friends of Netenyahu. They think Biden has been in sufficiently supportive of Israel.
Their assessment put is rubbish of course. Biden is the only President whose actions will succeed in establishing a 2 State Solution, which is fair for both peoples. Israel has nothing to fear from Biden.
Biden will win the election. The US, Israel and Palestine will all win. Let us support Joe and emphasise the danger and threat of Trumpism.
For Postcards To Swing States, received 100.
Glad I got mine early. 120 postcards and counting!❤️
I know we are talking about how bad a pick JD Vance was, but I wanted to encourage everyone to keep doing the work. I just received an email this morning from Postcards to Swing States and they have been swamped with a surge of signups to write postcards to Democratic voters. In fact, they are increasing their goal from 25 million to 29 million.
We are making a difference and every little bit matters.
Simon may not agree with me on this, but I saw the YouGov polling yesterday of D Senate candidates. The D was up 12 pts in PA, 9 pts in MI and 6 pts in Michigan. Unless you think that there will be record numbers of ticket splitting this year, this race will tighten. Do not be discouraged. Keep working.
So, the takeaway is it’s likely a close competitive race.
Real margin of error is much larger than what what a poll states:
“The real margin of error is often about double the one reported. The notion that a typical margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are. Why is that? For starters, the margin of error addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance. But there are three other, equally important sources of error in polling: nonresponse, coverage error (where not all the target population has a chance of being sampled) and mismeasurement. Not only does the margin of error fail to account for those other sources of potential error, it implies to the public that they do not exist, which is not true.”
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/08/05/key-things-to-know-about-election-polling-in-the-united-states/
That's my view for sure. As you said, it's close and competitve and we all need to keep writing postcards, manning phonebanks, canvassing voters and whatever else needs to be done.
This is the article I tried to find to send to Simon.
Isn't this good news? That the Senate Dems are up? I know 6 points is not a great lead but it's a lead, no? What am I missing. Sorry. This is above my pay grade sometimes.
Yes, I believe it is good news. My point (that I wasn't clear on) is that if the Senate D candidate is up 12 pts in PA, then I find it unlikely that Biden is down in PA. People don't split their tickets like that anymore.
Phew! Thank you!
Biden has consistently been trailing the Democratic candidates for Senate. I have long wondered how this will play out. Historically, and especially in today’s polarized political climate, I think it is highly unlikely that such a large proportion of voters will do ticket splitting.
If I am right, the obvious question that is all too little discussed:
– Will our Democratic Senate candidates lift up Biden-Harris?
– Or will Biden pull down and decrease the vote for our Senate candidates?
I firmly believe it will be the former, that our great Senate candidates will prevail, and that they will help Team Biden-Harris prevail as well!
Very interested in any thoughts others may have on this key question.
I agree that is the question. And obviously, I agree with you. But that's what the data over the last two years shows as well. Particularly in the 3 states where I saw the polling, PA WI and MI. D's have outperformed the polls and prior elections almost everywhere since 2022, so I suspect that the overall polling is not any more accurate now than it has been.
It's a strange thing to see Biden trail D candidates for Senate, again b/c I don't think that there will be ticket splitting. And it certainly could go the other direction. But again, that's not the trend we have seen the last two years. Just one guy's thoughts.
Many pundits have made the point that midterm elections and special elections are not indicative of Presidential Elections, when, generally, turnout is far higher.
This time around, I hope and pray that those pundits are woefully wrong.
Have heard the same and have considered that. I wish I had something more concrete to say, other than it would be a big turnaround from the trend we have seen. I just don't think this country really wants more chaos and authoritarianism, when push comes to shove.
Midterms and special plus abortion ballots have some tendacy towards presidential elections there was a diary over on daily Kos showing that plus the a tale of 3 cities over there is interesting
Was this a diary from someone on the DailyKos Elections staff? They’re stellar!
Historically, there are no reverse coattails and the lower races succumb to the dynamics in the upper race. That’s the worry - Biden will drag down both our Senate and House candidates and we get the nightmare GOP trifecta. That will be the end of democracy.
We have to be realistic. The polling data is dire right now. A statistically tied race with Biden slightly behind in the aggregate and only polling at 4O% is really bad. Yes, Trump is a weak candidate but voters are saying Biden is weaker. On top of all that, Biden seems to have no plausible path to break a ceiling of the mid 40s. His campaign has been unable to move the needle for months.
I adore Joe. I think he should pass the torch to someone with a much higher ceiling. Yet, I worry he is getting horrible guidance from his inner circle. Democracy is at stake.
I know this is not a popular opinion here.
There is no mechanism in the Democratic Party to “pass the torch.” The Biden delegates are committed. The virtual part of the convention for his nomination is coming up at the end of July. Just curious: what procedure have you been told about that would supersede these protocols?
If Biden understood how dire the data was and that most any replacement, including Harris, has a much higher ceiling, he could release the delegates to vote as they like. They are not contractually bound. Even Biden said this.
Most proposals have been for him to release to Harris.
Remember, since dobbs, dems have been outperforming the polls by a big margin. I dont believe the race will be as close as people think but we should still put in the work obviously.
There is this -- explanation of ticket splitting
" Historically, there’s been little hard data about what kinds of voters split their tickets. One study in 2010 found that ticket-splitting was more common among white voters, as well as those with a lot of trust in government, but Kuriwaki’s more recent research found that race didn’t have a significant effect. His studies showed that ticket-splitting was most common among low-information voters, true moderates, and people whose views don’t fit neatly within the political spectrum."
The line about low information voters really hit me! I'm all about post carding, I live in what will most likely be a blue state, so canvassing I can't do, but phonebanking yes! Texting yes. I'm interested in postcards with P25/A47 information to send out to swing voters.
From this . . .https://www.courthousenews.com/many-trump-voters-back-senate-democrats-making-the-chamber-a-toss-up-in-the-fall/
It’s possible that’s the answer. Seems like a huge change in a short amount of time and since polling has become less accurate over the past years, I’m still skeptical.
I have heard some say that it is Biden's age that is really driving people away from Biden or rather not his age - but that he looks his age. I read an article about the youth vote as well, those under 30 are more prone to 3rd party candidates, and the "change" candidate. Which might explain something.
The "change" candidate? Wow! We need to inform voters about the massive change that President Biden has brought! This is the most transformative American administration since at least LBJ.
It’s deeply frustrating to see how little credit for its phenomenal accomplishments, or coverage, Team Biden-Harris receives from the news media.
Historically, there are not reverse coattails. Almost never happens. The top of the ticket controls voting dynamics, and that’s why so many Dems and Dem organizations are freaking out right now. They worry we get a GOP trifecta with Biden at the top of the ticket.
Actually, Ruben Gallego said in his Hopium Interview with Simon that he would pull Biden over the top with him in AZ. Check it out!
It’s doesn’t happen. There is no historical precedent whatsoever. On the contrary, the top of the ticket, if weak, always drags down the bottom of the ticket.
Just being realistic here.
If Biden can’t somehow magically turn around his numbers (with youth especially), it is exceedingly likely he takes down several Senate candidates and a slew in the House.
JCOK, can you point us to a study, with analysis and data that documents your claim that "historically, there are not reverse coattails"? (Especially studies that include data from recent elections that take place in our hyper-polarized political climate.) I would be most interest in a data-driven discussion of this topic!
There are tons. Google "reverse coattails presidential elections".
Seriously? There are also *tons of hits* if I Google "Fake moon landing", "Biden stole 2020 election" or "Lizard people control humanity".
The claim is yours to document. Just point me to one single recent study from a reliable source. Really not interested in having to sort the wheat from the chaff – and certainly not based on googling.
Yale University 2009
https://isps.yale.edu/research/publications/isps09-027
Cambridge University 2017
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/article/abs/do-congressional-candidates-have-reverse-coattails-evidence-from-a-regression-discontinuity-design/B045330DF4345113E1AB95E00EFEFE16
Article citing to research
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/reverse-coattails-wont-rescue-biden
goes on and on.
More Hopium from
Postcards to Swing States:
Millions of grassroots volunteers across
the country are as determined as we
are to ensure that democracy prevails in November. More than 19,000 volunteers have ordered 5.5 million postcards over just the past two weeks!
Trump is back to his usual.
Biden needs to end the pause on ads
Simon: "More Data Showing How Much Harris Is Bringing To The Ticket. She Needs A Much Higher Profile."
I fully agree with Simon but would expand this:
In light of the shooting, the President’s campaign has paused ads and is doing a reset. In my opinion they should do a reset, with less focus on Joe. Instead, the focus should be on Team Biden-Harris, its deep competency, its accomplishments, and its vision and plans for the future.
This means sharing the stage with Kamala and key members of the President’s team, such as the highly articulate Pete Buttigieg, and with advantage sending them out on the campaign road by themselves.
My sister-in-law, my friend and I got surveys about Kamala Harris. I never fill out surveys but I did this time. So did my sister-in-law. SIL got three and I got two. My friend didn't realize she should have taken it. She will in the future if she gets another one. I found it interesting that surveys have been going out about Kamala Harris.
Simon pointed out last week or so that the Democrats are polling about VP Harris and it is a good thing! We should want to brag on our VP more!
Trump looked old, tired, weak and scared last night. He doesn't want to do this. Last night should've been right up his alley - a large crowd, totally devoted to him, ready to welcome their martyr. He survived an assassination attempt with barely an injury. His pet judge just dismissed the documents case. But he walks out like he's heading towards his demise, and falls asleep on the floor of the convention. We keep up the pressure, and he will crack. This is the end of MAGA. Their cult leader is too tired.
He is probably still in shock from Saturday.