Try As He Might Trump Cannot Escape Epstein, His Terrible Tariffs And His Failed Economic Agenda

Texas Dems Are Fighting Hard For Their Constituents and All Of Us

Morning all. Will start today acknowledging that Texas Governor Abbott appears to have decided to respond Dems blocking their mid-decade redistricting with wild authoritarian threats to remove and replace the Democratic legislators. This story is unfolding as I write so we won’t spend much time on it this morning, but here’s Texas State Senator James Talarico with an update he released late yesterday:

Here’s Texas State Senator Ann Johnson on Morning Joe this morning:

The most important story in our politics this week continues to be Trump’s terrible tariffs and our slowing economy. Trump’s dramatic global tariff escalation takes effect Thursday. As we’ve discussed here these enormous new tariffs are economic and geopolitical madness, and Democrats should be opposing them loudly, aggressively, with all we got.

On Saturday the NYT ran a story, After A Lag, Consumers Begin To Feel The Pinch Of Tariffs (gift link)

Companies are starting to shift more tariff-related costs onto consumers.

Many businesses chose to absorb the additional tax during the early days of President Trump’s trade war. But evidence is emerging that they are running out of options to keep prices stable in the face of deteriorating profit margins, suggesting that the tariffs could have a more pronounced effect on prices in the months ahead.

Government data, including from the Commerce Department this week, show that prices rose in June on items heavily exposed to tariffs, such as home furnishings, toys and appliances.

And in recent days — before Mr. Trump announced tariffs for much of the world on Thursday night — Adidas, Procter & Gamble, Stanley Black & Decker and other large corporations told investors that they either had increased prices or planned to do so soon to offset the tariff costs. Companies like Walmart and the toymakers Hasbro and Mattel had already warned that tariffs would lead to higher prices.

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And while inflation was fairly modest, prices were still going up, just at a gentle rate that most consumers would be hard-pressed to detect. Since early March, prices for imported goods have risen about 3 percent on average — with larger increases on goods from China, according to Alberto Cavallo, a Harvard economist.

Our economics reporters — based in New York, London, Brussels, Berlin, Hong Kong and Seoul — are digging into every aspect of the tariffs causing global turmoil. They are joined by dozens of reporters writing about the effects on everyday people.

“The pass-through at the retail level tends to be very gradual,” said Mr. Cavallo, who analyzes the impact of tariffs on prices with two co-authors, using data from a handful of major U.S. retailers. “That’s why a lot of people are feeling like nothing is happening.”

Mr. Trump expanded his global trade war on Thursday, unveiling a slew of new tariffs. If they take effect next Thursday as scheduled, his double-digit levies against dozens of countries are sure to amp up the pressure further on companies to offload some of the cost to consumers.

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Economists generally believe that consumers will ultimately feel the tariff’s pinch more sharply.

“Obviously it adds up,” said Mr. Cavallo, the Harvard economist. “Eventually, Americans will end up paying most of the cost of these tariffs.”

Vox writer Eric Levitz posted this Tweet showing a significant drop in US manufacturing jobs since the initial tariffs were levied in April. It destroys the central argument Trump is making for his tariffs - that they would bring manufacturing back home.

Here’s how Economist Mark Zandi summed up our current moment:

Our good friend Rob Shapiro just posted a new analysis in Washington Monthly, The US Economy Is Stumbling Badly. An excerpt:

What happens next for Americans will depend on many unknowns, but the outlook seems bleak based on what we know today. Trump just announced higher tariffs on imports from 28 countries, including Canada, Brazil, Taiwan, India, and other important trading partners, and a new survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta confirms that most businesses plan to respond to the tariffs by raising prices. So as they take hold, inflation will accelerate, further slowing or contracting consumption and investment. This nexus between tariffs and inflation is the main reason the Federal Reserve hasn’t cut interest rates as the economy has weakened.

As conditions deteriorate later this year, the Fed will cut interest rates at least modestly, but that won’t boost growth much. The Fed directly controls only very short-term rates, while markets determine longer-term rates. As I noted recently in these pages, the most likely direction for those longer-term rates for business loans, mortgages, and most Treasury securities is up, not down. Our coming budget deficits under Trump’s ill-considered tax program are so large as a share of the economy that attracting domestic and foreign capital to fund them—and new private lending financing them—will require higher rates, especially with inflation rising.

Reversing Trump’s tariff and tax program is the only reasonable way to restore healthy growth for the United States. Since that won’t happen, our most likely prospects for 2026 are stagflation or recession.

As we’ve discussed here through cherry-picked economic data, fake right-wing polls and incessant lying the White House has been working a false story of Trump presiding over a booming economy with strong backing from the American people. He’s been able to keep Republicans in line in part because in the information environment they live in Trump is strong, succeeding, popular, his tariffs are working and America is WINNING. After the terrible jobs report and stock market swoon on Friday that false narrative has become far harder to maintain, which is a reason why his reaction to it - the firing of the BLS Director - was so extreme. And it’s also why Democrats must continue to throw his ongoing economic failure in his face, and make this the central story we are telling to the American people, a story as we’ve seen from polling even a great many Trump supporters already believe.

For no matter what they say:

Trump is weak, not strong. He is failing, not succeeding. America is losing under Trump, not winning. He is a villain, not a hero.

The other false narrative we must keep working to tear down is a disgusting new one Trump has begun desperately working overtime to establish - that he and Ghislaine Maxwell are innocent victims of a vast left-wing plot. Here’s CNBC on Friday, Epstein victims blast Trump for Ghislaine Maxwell prison transfer:

Two sexual abuse victims of Jeffrey Epstein and the family of late Epstein victim Virginia Giuffre on Friday blasted President Donald Trump after learning that Epstein’s accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell had been transferred to a less restrictive prison in Texas from Florida.

“This move smacks of a cover up,” Epstein victims Annie Farmer and Maria Farmer, as well as Giuffre’s relatives said in a statement.

“President Trump has sent a clear message today: Pedophiles deserve preferential treatment and their victims do not matter,” the statement said, noting that the two women and Giuffre’s family had not been notified of Maxwell’s transfer before media reports of it.

Here’ an old newspaper clip that Josh Marshall posted this weekend with a story of Trump and Maxwell working a 20 year old socialite, together. These kinds of ugly skeletons keep tumbling out of Trump’s closet every single day:

On Friday in a CNN interview Abigail Spanberger’s opponent could not answer simple questions about the impact of Federal job cuts on Virginia. The Spanberger campaign has smartly turned that brutal moment into a powerful new ad. Watch:

Now….

Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates And Party Committees - A reminder that Election Day, 2025 is a little more than three months away and early voting starts in Virginia in less than two months - September 19th!

As background learn about 1) our big recommendations to the family coming out of the 2024 elections 2) the many important wins we had together last cycle 3) my latest thinking on where we are and the path forward for the Hopium community.

Donate, volunteer, learn more about our candidates and opportunities here. I consider all these options must dos for anyone serious about winning this year and next year...

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $46k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Rep. Sherrill

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov (2025) - $250,000 goal, $160k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch my interview with Abigail Spanberger

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $25,000 Labor Day goal, $250,000 goal, $17,000 raised- Donate | Learn More | Volunteer

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Our updated fundraising goals are now for the end of the year, December 31st, except for the 2025 races, which are now for Election Day, 2025.

We can do this people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our Recommended Actions - We are prioritizing three actions today. You can get our full list of recommended actions here. Let’s get to it:

1 - Call your Senators and Rep To Demand They Rescind Trump’s Terrible Tariffs - Congress simply must take back its tariff authority that Trump has illegally and unconstitutional seized and dangerously abused. It is time now for to rescind these terrible and destructive madman tariffs.

2 - Bring “Resolutions Of Condemnation” To Your Community - Inspired by the tactics of our Founders learn about how Hopium members are advancing “Resolutions of Condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Remarkably, members of this community are now advancing 50 resolutions projects in 20 states. Can we get to all 50 states by the fall election?

Our newly updated Resolutions page includes a new chat for folks to report in on their progress or seek counsel from those interested in launching a resolutions project in their community. This is one way to fight back against Trump’s unprecedented abandonment of our Constitutional order.

3 - Grow Hopium And This Wonderful Community Of Proud, Plucky, Patriots - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Election Day, 2025. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.

To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day. Use that link to buy gift or group subscriptions, and join our new referral rewards program too.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder! Been impressive to see how many of you remain involved in local, in person protests of all kinds in your communities. Keep it up!!!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it truly is - Simon