HUNGARY – As Simon points out, Hungary is headed for a record voter turnout. Here is how turnout has developed so far today:
9am – 16.9%
11am – 38%
1pm – 54%
3pm – 66%
5pm – 74.2% (Just added)
This is already a Hungarian turnout record for elections in modern times, far surpassing the 2022 turnout of 69.6%. But we have two more hours to go! Polls close at 7pm local time – but anyone in line before then has the right to vote.
Regional figures show Budapest at 69.23%, well above the national average, with similarly strong participation in Pest county at 69.67%. Other above-average results include Győr-Moson-Sopron at 68.38% and Veszprém at 67.63%.
The lowest turnout was recorded in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county at 60.33% and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county at 60.08%, two regions traditionally considered strongholds of ruling Fidesz.
Projected parliamentary seat distribution (Please take with a grain of salt):
Tisza: 137
Fidesz: 61
IF this proves accurate, Orbán decisively loses power. Very importantly, the opposition Tisza Party will hold a supermajority. This would enable them to start undoing the institutional and judicial damage wrought by 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s “illiberal” rule.
And Hungary knows that if Orbán challenges the election results, he has spent many years packing the courts with loyalists.
Sound familiar?
In such a scenario, the big question is whether the European Union would tolerate an autocrat blatantly stealing the election in one of its member states.
Final turnout is now expected to exceed 80% – which is unprecedented. As of 5pm, turnout in the opposition stronghold of Budapest was at 77.2%, compared to 74.2 nationally.
Also worth noting is that the previous record for voter turnout – already broken by 5pm today – was 73.5% in 2002. That was when the first Orbán government fell!
So if I have this right Trump said, just a few days ago, that Europe had to help us open the Strait of Hormuz, then we didn't care if the Strait was open or closed because we didn't need it and it was up to other countries that do need it to open it, then that he'd commit genocide if Iran didn't open the Strait, then that the Strait was open and our ships had passed through, then that we were opening the Strait as a "favor" to other countries, and, now, that we're going to blockade the Strait. We (and Iran) are dealing with a literal madman. No one can negotiate with someone like this. He doesn't even know from minute to minute what he wants. There's no way Iran can give up the one big thing it holds and that's the Strait. So we're in a mess, a mess of Trump's choosing.
One thing I've been noticing over the past week or so is that Trump's tactic of insulting reporters (usually women and black reporters) is losing its juice. He does it so often and calls so many outlets "fake" that it's just noise at this point. He's likely looking for another way to try and regain "dominance."
I'm writing postcards to NC voters today and sending good thoughts to Hungary. (If Orban is smart, he's already moved assets to Russia and he'll flee there quickly. And avoid open windows.)
These negotiations were always just a show for trump to say, "We tried, but Iran wasn't serious."
Besides, how serious can trump be when he sent Vance who has no diplomatic experience, less than a day to prepare, with two real estate developers, Kushner & Witkoff to help. What could possibly go wrong?
Drumpf: “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.” I believe there’s a word for that. It’s called piracy.
Let me get this straight. Donald is blockading a blockade? What does that even look like? Mathematically, two negatives equal a positive so I’m guessing that something is going to happen soon that is positive and most likely out of Donald’s preview.
Doesn't this mean it is an escalation? It can't be good. Trump and Hegseth act as if this is some kind video game and they are at the controls. Except, even in video games, one player wins and the other one gets blown up.
Thanks Simon for your "Change Advocacy." It is inspiring. Along those lines...........
The diplomatic posturing of Donald Trump and JD Vance regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz highlights a striking "absurdity of denial" within their inner circle. This disregard for historical precedent brings to mind George Santayana’s 1905 warning in The Life of Reason: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Currently, the administration's approach to the Iranian conflict—and indeed its broader foreign policy—resembles a reckless zero-sum game that inflicts permanent damage on America's global standing. To understand the gravity of this trajectory, one need only look at the historical fate of dictators driven by naked self-interest and the demand for absolute compliance.
Military dominance becomes a catastrophic liability when a leader’s malignant narcissism triggers "Imperial Overstretch," a state where the cost of global commitments far exceeds the nation’s economic and social capacity. This shift typically begins when a leader prioritizes personal loyalty over professional expertise, purging competent military minds to surround themselves with sycophants.
Historically, this "loyalty over competence" approach—seen in Stalin’s Great Purge or Mussolini’s impulsive Mediterranean campaigns—hollows out the military from within, leaving a massive force that is structurally brittle and incapable of adapting to reality-based strategic challenges.
The "tipping point" into vulnerability occurs when military strength is used to chase grandiose, ego-driven objectives rather than sustainable national interests. As seen with Hitler’s refusal to retreat at Stalingrad or Saddam Hussein’s bankrupted Iraq, the obsession with projected power leads to a "reality testing" failure. The host country then enters a debt-fueled cycle where maintaining an oversized military presence drains domestic resources from infrastructure and education.
Ultimately, the very force intended to project power becomes the primary engine of economic exhaustion, leaving the nation vulnerable to internal collapse and unable to defend its own borders against more focused, fiscally stable rivals.
As you said, Trump enacting a blockade is an act of war. It is very worrying. Could we see Chinese naval forces in the region to escort ships through our blockade? It'll either fall apart immediately or represent a new level of danger. I bet oil prices spike, the stock market dramatically falls, and Trump backs down. But it is still concerning because he's demented, evil, and cornered.
These fuckers Kushner and Witkoff, and all the Trumps, need to pay a price after this. And all the billionaires who have backed this regime need to be held to account and punished when we have a Democratic president. There needs to be a day of reckoning.
If we get a good result in Hungary, and Orban actually leaves, this will make Trump even more desperate. I would bet at that point the real firings start, beginning with Gabbard.
"And this morning Trump escalated, broke the cease fire, and launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz"
Typical Trump move - the Strait is basically already fully blocked by Iran so he can claim that his blockade of it is what stopped all the traffic when there wasn't any traffic already. The rooster who takes credit for the sun rising. Utterly pathetic.
Like a thief stealing in the night, Trump once again believes he can take what is not his to take. There will be no blockade, and no robbery on the high seas. There is no “deal” (these things were once called treaties, agreements, accords) because the ludicrous US lineup in Pakistan was a joke next to the tough, focused, disciplined, and serious Iranian representatives who showed up. We should buckle up. This is an explicit international crisis. It’s only getting worse from here.
From Hawaii: “No war. No haters. No demented dictators.” I just witnessed the most ethereal sunrise this morning. Clouds of gold laced with the pink of dawn. “No war. No haters. No demented dictators.”
Looking forward to hearing from Simon, Jen & Norm tomorrow. Enjoyed a relaxing day at the ballpark yesterday. I don't care what anyone says, there is something restorative about baseball on a spring day, especially in the minor leagues where the ballparks are often in actual neighborhoods. Keep going!
I'm blown away by that voter turnout number from Hungary, Simon! Wow!!!
Here's to Hungary!!!!
For those not currently watching Mike Turner and Margaret Brennan go at it, please seek out the video online, I guess later (today's Face the Nation).
She's doing a bang-up job digging in her heels, and he's getting really flustered because she's just throwing Trump's own words at him.
Here's the clip uploaded to Youtube.
https://youtu.be/wxsO83PAdZc?si=jC0m7o4IK2D7-I5K
**updated**
HUNGARY – As Simon points out, Hungary is headed for a record voter turnout. Here is how turnout has developed so far today:
9am – 16.9%
11am – 38%
1pm – 54%
3pm – 66%
5pm – 74.2% (Just added)
This is already a Hungarian turnout record for elections in modern times, far surpassing the 2022 turnout of 69.6%. But we have two more hours to go! Polls close at 7pm local time – but anyone in line before then has the right to vote.
Lots of details here:
https://europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/national-parliament-election-in-hungary-2026/
The Budapest Business Journal has a worthwhile Live Blog:
https://bbj.hu/politics/domestic/elections/hungary-votes-in-pivotal-national-election-live-updates/
Article in Politico Europe, with details being updated:
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-2026-election-high-voter-turnout-viktor-orban-peter-magyar/
As of 3pm (more turnout details):
Regional figures show Budapest at 69.23%, well above the national average, with similarly strong participation in Pest county at 69.67%. Other above-average results include Győr-Moson-Sopron at 68.38% and Veszprém at 67.63%.
The lowest turnout was recorded in Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg county at 60.33% and Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén county at 60.08%, two regions traditionally considered strongholds of ruling Fidesz.
Source: Budapest Business Journal
thanks so much, Arctic!
NB. Here is the estimated final vote from Hungary’s main projection website. Spoiler alert: The prediction is a decisive victory for the opposition!
https://tacticalvoting.eu/
Projected parliamentary seat distribution (Please take with a grain of salt):
Tisza: 137
Fidesz: 61
IF this proves accurate, Orbán decisively loses power. Very importantly, the opposition Tisza Party will hold a supermajority. This would enable them to start undoing the institutional and judicial damage wrought by 16 years of Viktor Orbán’s “illiberal” rule.
And right on cue, Orban's cronies are making claims of 'massive voter fraud'!!!
https://bsky.app/profile/rayosunlong.bsky.social/post/3mjcnvh7zhc2x
And Hungary knows that if Orbán challenges the election results, he has spent many years packing the courts with loyalists.
Sound familiar?
In such a scenario, the big question is whether the European Union would tolerate an autocrat blatantly stealing the election in one of its member states.
They would not.
Final turnout is now expected to exceed 80% – which is unprecedented. As of 5pm, turnout in the opposition stronghold of Budapest was at 77.2%, compared to 74.2 nationally.
Thanks for these comments and resources about the election. One tyrant down, one to go.
Oh, there’s a few more than that. But let’s proceed to him.
God willing this amounts to Orban’s removal and that it is TOO BIG TO RIG!!!
Pro-democracy forces in the U.S., take note!
Also worth noting is that the previous record for voter turnout – already broken by 5pm today – was 73.5% in 2002. That was when the first Orbán government fell!
history repeats itself! yeah!
🙏🏻
Hungary is all of us.
Fingers crossed for Hungary. It will be a great rebuke of couch boy
And his foreign interference in an election.
It will be a great rebuke to all of Putin’s pals. And that is something I would love to see.
So if I have this right Trump said, just a few days ago, that Europe had to help us open the Strait of Hormuz, then we didn't care if the Strait was open or closed because we didn't need it and it was up to other countries that do need it to open it, then that he'd commit genocide if Iran didn't open the Strait, then that the Strait was open and our ships had passed through, then that we were opening the Strait as a "favor" to other countries, and, now, that we're going to blockade the Strait. We (and Iran) are dealing with a literal madman. No one can negotiate with someone like this. He doesn't even know from minute to minute what he wants. There's no way Iran can give up the one big thing it holds and that's the Strait. So we're in a mess, a mess of Trump's choosing.
One thing I've been noticing over the past week or so is that Trump's tactic of insulting reporters (usually women and black reporters) is losing its juice. He does it so often and calls so many outlets "fake" that it's just noise at this point. He's likely looking for another way to try and regain "dominance."
I'm writing postcards to NC voters today and sending good thoughts to Hungary. (If Orban is smart, he's already moved assets to Russia and he'll flee there quickly. And avoid open windows.)
These negotiations were always just a show for trump to say, "We tried, but Iran wasn't serious."
Besides, how serious can trump be when he sent Vance who has no diplomatic experience, less than a day to prepare, with two real estate developers, Kushner & Witkoff to help. What could possibly go wrong?
#CLOWNSHOW
why are kushner & witkoff even there? the iranians dont like them because they did not negotiate in good faith the last time.
Exactly and where is the media? If this were Obama or Biden ... oh never mind.
Drumpf: “I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.” I believe there’s a word for that. It’s called piracy.
I believe he has no idea what "interdict" means and thus did not write that missive.
Good point
Let me get this straight. Donald is blockading a blockade? What does that even look like? Mathematically, two negatives equal a positive so I’m guessing that something is going to happen soon that is positive and most likely out of Donald’s preview.
he did the same thing iran did. how idiotic!
Doesn't this mean it is an escalation? It can't be good. Trump and Hegseth act as if this is some kind video game and they are at the controls. Except, even in video games, one player wins and the other one gets blown up.
Thanks Simon for your "Change Advocacy." It is inspiring. Along those lines...........
The diplomatic posturing of Donald Trump and JD Vance regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz highlights a striking "absurdity of denial" within their inner circle. This disregard for historical precedent brings to mind George Santayana’s 1905 warning in The Life of Reason: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Currently, the administration's approach to the Iranian conflict—and indeed its broader foreign policy—resembles a reckless zero-sum game that inflicts permanent damage on America's global standing. To understand the gravity of this trajectory, one need only look at the historical fate of dictators driven by naked self-interest and the demand for absolute compliance.
Military dominance becomes a catastrophic liability when a leader’s malignant narcissism triggers "Imperial Overstretch," a state where the cost of global commitments far exceeds the nation’s economic and social capacity. This shift typically begins when a leader prioritizes personal loyalty over professional expertise, purging competent military minds to surround themselves with sycophants.
Historically, this "loyalty over competence" approach—seen in Stalin’s Great Purge or Mussolini’s impulsive Mediterranean campaigns—hollows out the military from within, leaving a massive force that is structurally brittle and incapable of adapting to reality-based strategic challenges.
The "tipping point" into vulnerability occurs when military strength is used to chase grandiose, ego-driven objectives rather than sustainable national interests. As seen with Hitler’s refusal to retreat at Stalingrad or Saddam Hussein’s bankrupted Iraq, the obsession with projected power leads to a "reality testing" failure. The host country then enters a debt-fueled cycle where maintaining an oversized military presence drains domestic resources from infrastructure and education.
Ultimately, the very force intended to project power becomes the primary engine of economic exhaustion, leaving the nation vulnerable to internal collapse and unable to defend its own borders against more focused, fiscally stable rivals.
we are here now!
Yes. Now what?
As you said, Trump enacting a blockade is an act of war. It is very worrying. Could we see Chinese naval forces in the region to escort ships through our blockade? It'll either fall apart immediately or represent a new level of danger. I bet oil prices spike, the stock market dramatically falls, and Trump backs down. But it is still concerning because he's demented, evil, and cornered.
These fuckers Kushner and Witkoff, and all the Trumps, need to pay a price after this. And all the billionaires who have backed this regime need to be held to account and punished when we have a Democratic president. There needs to be a day of reckoning.
If we get a good result in Hungary, and Orban actually leaves, this will make Trump even more desperate. I would bet at that point the real firings start, beginning with Gabbard.
I'll be post carding later at least for awhile.
"And this morning Trump escalated, broke the cease fire, and launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz"
Typical Trump move - the Strait is basically already fully blocked by Iran so he can claim that his blockade of it is what stopped all the traffic when there wasn't any traffic already. The rooster who takes credit for the sun rising. Utterly pathetic.
Like a thief stealing in the night, Trump once again believes he can take what is not his to take. There will be no blockade, and no robbery on the high seas. There is no “deal” (these things were once called treaties, agreements, accords) because the ludicrous US lineup in Pakistan was a joke next to the tough, focused, disciplined, and serious Iranian representatives who showed up. We should buckle up. This is an explicit international crisis. It’s only getting worse from here.
Here’s my arm chair take on the Stable Genius’s naval blockade:
1. To cut off Iran’s revenue stream from its extortionist tolls.
2. To cripple the global economy to punish countries (especially NATO) for not bailing out his fat ass previously.
If only Fred Trump had hugged him.
🤞for Hungary. 🇭🇺
From Hawaii: “No war. No haters. No demented dictators.” I just witnessed the most ethereal sunrise this morning. Clouds of gold laced with the pink of dawn. “No war. No haters. No demented dictators.”
So inspired by the current Hungary results, by Simon's report, and by this great essay by Dr. Ben-Ghiat. https://lucid.substack.com/p/orban-made-in-hungary-america-and
Looking forward to hearing from Simon, Jen & Norm tomorrow. Enjoyed a relaxing day at the ballpark yesterday. I don't care what anyone says, there is something restorative about baseball on a spring day, especially in the minor leagues where the ballparks are often in actual neighborhoods. Keep going!