Vance Fails In Pakistan, Trump Breaks The Ceasefire And Launches A Naval Blockade, Turn Out In Hungary Is Very Strong
I'll be live with Jen Rubin and Norm Eisen tomorrow at 915am ET; paid subscriber event Wed at 7pm ET; VA Vote Yes phonebanks Thur at 530pm
Happy Sunday all. These last few days were so very Trump. A rough and confusing cease fire came together. Talks began. Our regime made delusional demands. Iran said no. Vance left. And this morning Trump escalated, broke the cease fire, and launched a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz:
For as we've discussing here Trump and his team are no longer capable of negotiating deals, with anyone. They dictate, and demand, and expect all of us to bend the knee. There is only one play in the playbook, but of course we here in America and others around the world are not complying, the way the Maduro regime did. Trump did not take Greenland. He could not come to a deal on reining in ICE, so DHS remains unfunded. He couldn’t get SAVE passed. Zelenskyy is not accepting Trump’s outrageous demands of Ukrainian surrender. The Iranians said no, so the Iranian regime remains in power, still possesses thousands of ballistic missiles and nuclear material, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Eight million Americans marched across the country a few weeks ago, the largest protest in American history. The Hungarian people appear to be defying Trump-Vance today, as Americans have been doing in election after election of all kinds in the last fifteen months (Hungary is 6 hours ahead of us).
Here’s the NYT summary of the failed talks (gift link), and the ridiculous Trump-Vance expectation that Iran would just surrender, just as the Venezuelan regime did:
When talks between the United States and Iran ended just before dawn on Sunday morning without a permanent cease-fire, the Americans said they had made their final best offer and that Iran had not accepted.
“We’ve made very clear what our red lines are, what things we’re willing to accommodate them on, and what things we’re not willing to accommodate them on,” Vice President JD Vance said after 21 hours of meetings with top Iranian officials at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad.
Mr. Vance did not say what those red lines were. In the days leading up to the talks, both sides had issued public statements suggesting they remained far apart on several critical issues. They did not even agree on whether the two-week truce they reached on Tuesday applied to fighting in Lebanon, a dispute that nearly derailed the meeting.
By early Sunday, three main sticking points remained, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium; and Iran’s demand that about $27 billion in frozen revenues held abroad be released.
The United States had demanded that Iran immediately reopen the strait to all maritime traffic. But Iran refused to relinquish leverage over the critical choke point for oil tankers, saying it would do so only after a final peace deal, according to the two Iranian officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic negotiations.
Iran also sought reparations for damage from six weeks of airstrikes and asked for frozen oil revenues held in Iraq, Luxembourg, Bahrain, Japan, Qatar, Turkey and Germany to be released for reconstruction, the officials said. The Americans refused those requests.
Another point of contention was President Trump’s demand that Iran hand over or sell its entire stockpile of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium. Iran made a counterproposal, but the sides were unable to reach a compromise, the officials said.
“When two serious teams with an intention for a deal come to the table, it has to be a win-win for both. It is unrealistic to think we can come out of this without making any serious concessions; the same holds true for the Americans,” said Mehdi Rahmati, an analyst in Tehran, in a telephone interview.
And then a few minutes ago we got this:
I don’t know what happens now - Trump’s war has failed, the peace talks have failed, and Trump has ended the cease fire after after just a few days. I was always skeptical there would be a “deal” for any reasonable deals means humiliation for Trump, an acceptance of his defeat, weakness, and idiocy. It is all a reminder, as I argued in my weekly talk, that the crisis the world is facing right now isn’t Iran, it’s Trump, the madman running our country:
This morning our ridiculous leader escalated, broke the cease fire, dramatically, unilaterally, and illegally - for a naval blockade of this magnitude is an act of war, a war that has still never been authorized, as our Constitution requires, by Congress.
I will be posting again later today when we get the election results from Hungary. For more check out our many uplifting new candidate discussions or these recent Hopium posts:
More later today, but right now it’s time to…….
Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I will be joining Jen Rubin and Norm Eisen tomorrow morning at 915am ET to try to make sense of all this. Head to The Contrarian site to catch us live tomorrow am.
Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map
Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $557,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal (new ambitious, audacious even, q2 goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | You can meet and get to know these House flipping candidates by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews with each.
So far we’ve sat down with Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-3), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and should rounding out the rest in the coming weeks. If you are looking for inspiration this weekend watch a few of these interviews - I promise they great candidates will get you excited about our opportunities this November!
Huge shout-out to the team at FridayAction. Our recent event together has now raised $97,000 for our House candidates - amazing, amazing stuff! That total is included in our new remarkable fundraising total, as is the money given to each individual House candidate in recent weeks.
James Talarico For Texas - $56,500 raised, $250,000 - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my inspiring interview with Rep. Talarico as he fights to turn Texas blue
Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $81,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Enjoy my uplifting conversation with Mary Peltola as she fights to turn Alaska blue
Winning Ohio - $119,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue, and watch my new discussion with our good friend David Pepper, now our candidate for Lt. Gov in Ohio. This total includes $21,00 sent by a Hopium community member directly to each of our three Buckeye State partners!
Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $103,900 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my new discussion with Gov. Cooper as he fights to turn North Carolina blue
Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $165,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $516,300 raised, $750,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election. Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $20,000 to each of our five state parties over the past two years.
Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/VA Vote Yes Phonebanks Thursday
We had hundreds of people join us on Thursday night for the first of our two Yote Yes phonebanks. We made over 50,000 dials, and had 5,000 conversations with voters. We, the members of this plucky and patriotic community, reached 5,000 voters in just a few hours. I want to double that this Thursday, and note that when we reach 5,000 voters, or 10,000 this week, we are reaching far, far more than that as each person we touch will touch many others in these critical, closing days.
Sign up for our phonebank this Thursday at 530pm here - let’s blow this one out everyone!
There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government.
Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:
Work to end this new gulf war and Trump’s Imperial global ambitions
Support Ukraine and Europe, not Russia
Roll back the new, illegal tariffs
Rescind the Trump tax cuts, claw back the extra ICE funding
Make the US a clean energy superpower, fight for true energy independence, and lower utility and energy prices for the American people
Rein in ICE, end Mass Deportation
End Trump’s destructive war on science, research, our health scare system and our public Health
Make clear to American farmers that we want to end the failed war, repeal the terrible tariffs, find legal pathways for farm workers, and make health care and energy more affordable
This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, and rescinding the tariffs that are doing so much damage to our economy.
And please use the paid subscriber chat to self-report the good trouble you make each day.
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together - Simon
**updated**
HUNGARY – As Simon points out, Hungary is headed for a record voter turnout. Here is how turnout has developed so far today:
9am – 16.9%
11am – 38%
1pm – 54%
3pm – 66%
5pm – 74.2% (Just added)
This is already a Hungarian turnout record for elections in modern times, far surpassing the 2022 turnout of 69.6%. But we have two more hours to go! Polls close at 7pm local time – but anyone in line before then has the right to vote.
Lots of details here:
https://europeelects.eu/2026/04/04/national-parliament-election-in-hungary-2026/
The Budapest Business Journal has a worthwhile Live Blog:
https://bbj.hu/politics/domestic/elections/hungary-votes-in-pivotal-national-election-live-updates/
Article in Politico Europe, with details being updated:
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-2026-election-high-voter-turnout-viktor-orban-peter-magyar/
So if I have this right Trump said, just a few days ago, that Europe had to help us open the Strait of Hormuz, then we didn't care if the Strait was open or closed because we didn't need it and it was up to other countries that do need it to open it, then that he'd commit genocide if Iran didn't open the Strait, then that the Strait was open and our ships had passed through, then that we were opening the Strait as a "favor" to other countries, and, now, that we're going to blockade the Strait. We (and Iran) are dealing with a literal madman. No one can negotiate with someone like this. He doesn't even know from minute to minute what he wants. There's no way Iran can give up the one big thing it holds and that's the Strait. So we're in a mess, a mess of Trump's choosing.
One thing I've been noticing over the past week or so is that Trump's tactic of insulting reporters (usually women and black reporters) is losing its juice. He does it so often and calls so many outlets "fake" that it's just noise at this point. He's likely looking for another way to try and regain "dominance."
I'm writing postcards to NC voters today and sending good thoughts to Hungary. (If Orban is smart, he's already moved assets to Russia and he'll flee there quickly. And avoid open windows.)