It’s probably a mistake to try and shift focus every time a major event happens in the world during the campaign. For instance, McCain really hurt himself by “suspending his campaign” to “deal” with the stock market crash of 2008. It’s all about worry less, do more. It’s pointless to worry about the things beyond our control. All that said, there is an opportunity here for Harris if she gets out in front of the market troubles, ties the Fed leadership to the past (running against a past president means you can saddle him with his record, even though he is not the incumbent), and positions herself as the future. Possible taking points: 1. Trump-appointee Jerome Powell’s mishandling of monetary policy shows it’s time for a change and she will appoint someone new as soon as she is elected. 2. The Fed should meet for an emergency rate cut ASAP. 3. Billionaires like Trump’s backer Elon Musk can survive in any economy, but her policies are aimed at working families (I think the clip from Atlanta in which Trump admits he’s changing his position on electric cars because Elon endorsed him would make a good ad).
The market volatility is the carry trade adjustments in the Yen initiated by Japan. See Tooze today. Whether it spins out remains to be seen. While there is an argument for an emergency meeting of the Fed - it also implies panic. see Krugman today. Powell's Chair term ends in May 2026, his Board term in 2028. There's a lot to be said for stability in monetary policy. Reading the indicators is akin to reading these early polls. I hope Truth Social invested in carry trade.
Sounds like a major trigger of this turbulence is nervousness by "investors" who were treating these currencies and markets more like a casino. And also, that in the greater scheme of things, this is really nothing more than a relatively minor adjustment. Is that a correct understanding or am I way off the mark?
I'm not an economist, but talking about the Fed as a campaign issue to get the middle class worried aabout 401k accounts on your side is something Republicans are willing to do. Democrats think that just because you shouldn't actually interfere with the Fed, it means they can't say anything at all. Josh Marshall discusses this issue today at TPM: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/annals-of-fed-misses
It is pretty simple if people ask why the market is correcting/potentially entering a bear market, the answer is "JPOW blew it." He blew it in raising rates, and he blew it dropping them. Just another example of why you should not trust Republicans.
Thom Hartmann has contended that Powell is trying to push us into a recession. I don't know if I'd go that far, but it sure looks that way. I'm not an economist, though as Richard Thaler once said, lots of things are obvious to everyone but economists.....
A better way to look at it is JPOW probably thinks the ideal inflation rate is 2% and ideal unemployment rate is 5%. He feels he has room on the unemployment side. If you watched his last press conference he seemed surprised everyone was bent out of shape over 4.1% unemployment.
There’s very mixed reporting on the market now. I know Paul Krugman is calling for an emergency cut but others indicate the Fed will meet if it needs to before Sept. One problem
is a meeting before Sept. can cause more panic. I’ve seen a couple of reports more measured—one saying the Fed can’t meet every time the market is down.
We are trying to write 50 postcards a day at my house, the plan is to get to 1000 and mail them on October 24. We are in Rancho Mirage California so our mission is to get rid of fossilized retread Ken Calvert.
You are amazing! I'm meeting with about 12 friends once per week and we crank out hundreds of postcards. We're upping our membership to 20, so we're growing! We'll start phonebanking soon.
Runfast, we try to always be working on batches of 50 also. Hats off to you, don't forget the Uniball Jetstream pen which reduces writer fatigue 🥥🌴💪 (means coconut tree strong) Go Team Hopium!
Ah - it was you who recommended these pens! I didn’t think it would matter, but after I ordered them, I haven’t used my old favorite since. Thank you! 😊
The Senate outcome hinges on a surge from the top (obviously). Dems could not have imagined the spot they find themselves in today… the day after the debate. Simon has a good take on things… as almost always.
Axelrod is now bitter because he didn’t want Harris. He’s now writing for Republican rcp? The guy is a prick. Plouffe was the actual brains in the Obama campaign - he’s now working for Harris. I would take Axelrod with a huge grain of salt - no one is resting on their laurels.
I'm not sure I agree with your take. I think we need to be careful. Sorry, I don't think he's wrong. We can win, but it's not going to be a cakewalk is all he's saying.
The problem with the analysis is that even if true, irrational exuberance often accompanies winning campaigns. Obama's team might have felt things were uncertain, but everyone I knew seemed sure and pumped that he was going to win way, way, way before he locked up the nomination.
Heck the Republicans even made documentaries about how in their opinion media lost its mind and anointed him president on hype alone. Irrational exuberance is substantively different than over confidence.
Stacey Abrams is someone we should listen to. Axelrod is not, I think, worth listening to. Exuberant people vote. Disengaged people stay home. What does he think this is? He's been out of the game so long he forgot the point of a campaign is to mobilize supporters to vote, not perform for pundits. It's like a sports commentator at the NCAA basketball tournament saying, "This sixth rank team is really outplaying this first ranked team. Looks like irrational exuberance to me. They should really try to rein that in and get their scoring back under control." We all know that Axelrod always loathed Joe Biden and called for him to drop out minutes after the debate. But apparently he didn't really want him to, because now that Joe is gone, Axe is mad. He just wanted Joe to fail, not for Democrats to succeed! Makes no sense, but I challenge anyone to come up with a better explanation for why he would describe a party winning in the polls, raising tons of money, and energizing the base with this "irrational exuberance" horseshit.
I think he is worth listening to. He was right about Biden and frankly, it's always good to be cautious and not take things for granted. The mood has shifted, we're all very excited and it's okay to be exhuberant, just not delusional. I don't have any antimosity towards Axelrod -- he wants us to win.
But optimism and “Yes We Kam” gets us the win! Not “be careful.” That’s more like pre-emptive pessimism - “if I don’t get my hopes up I won’t be too disappointed, blah blah”
Axelrod can take himself and his wet blanket somewhere else. He is not wanted.
He is contending that this is trump's race to lose. I find that very ill informed, and question his credibility. I read this on Dkos which referenced some interview he did.
Indeed, how is it Trump's race to lose? He lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. He lost the Senate in 2020 and (especially with his MAGA weirdo candidates) in 2022. The idea that Trump's win is inevitable sounds like propaganda. Women preferred Biden. Ten million more women than men voted in 2020. Even more will vote this time for our Vice President. Please, Axe, do tell me how I'm supposed to take anything you say as remotely based upon my lived experience as a woman in the United States of America. I'm joyful, exuberant and totally rational.
I’m not sure he does want us to win. He wants to keep cashing checks from cnn - whoever helps him get the most money is who he’s about. Axelrod is no friend.
I just wonder exactly who Axelrod thinks he’s writing for. Do you know one single Kamala supporter who would otherwise work hard to get Kamala elected, but who has opted not to because he/she is convinced that Kamala has this race clinched? ‘Cause I sure don’t.
Oh word, David Axelrod, this is gonna be a very tough battle? Gee thanks, I had no idea. Appreciate you sharing your expertise, Dave.
It's the media environment. Giving an unpopular opinion gets you a lot of attention and there's no negative consequence for it later. It's what turned the NY Times from the world's newspaper of record into what it is today.
100%. If Trump wins, Axelrod gets to present himself as the Cassandra who went unheeded. If Harris wins, Axelrod’s warnings will be promptly forgotten, and his pundit career proceeds apace.
"Nate, you predicted a red wave in 2022. It didn't happen, you have told us, because people are too stupid to understand your model. Now, for triple your usual appearance fee, tell us what you are predicting for 2024 and what will you say when it doesn't happen."
Axelrod can’t help himself from being the wet blanket, skunk at the picnic, turd in the punch bowl, pick your metaphor. Nobody is “irrationally exuberant,” for god’s sake, we are just on an energy and enthusiasm wave that we haven’t seen since Obama in 2008.
Swear to god 2016 has *permanently* broken some brains. It’s also destroyed nighttime dryness.
Axelrod reminds of someone who used to be part of the cool kids group, got kicked out, and is bitter over it. I won't forget how he treated Hillary in 2016. He was always putting her down under the guise of being balanced and fair. Then, he was extremely critical of Biden and now telling us to be careful about being over confident or however he phrased it. Worry and Catastrophizing is not preparation. Honestly, I really do think Axelrod is bitter - either that or smug while making money by criticizing his party under the guise of fairness. I love Biden AND I'm happy with how things are going right now. So yeah, I don't care what Axelrod thinks. pffft! Go Harris and whomever she picks as VP running mate. 💙
Axelrod is the new best friend of Newsmax and Fox. I know this because my hubby watches those channels, and I can't help hearing some of their propaganda even though I try to avoid it hitting my ears.
What a contrast these Olympic games have been to the MAGA chant! We are great, we are gracious in defeat and in victory. We are diverse. We don't "turn" -- we are. That's patriotism in my book.
I am glad you brought up the Olympics. I have been thoroughly enjoying watching. It is nice to tune in and reduce some of my television news intake. I've been getting my political news filled by Substack writers, and I consider myself well-informed. I am also less aggravated as on some of the shows I like on MSNBC, even though I enjoy the host's perspectives, they will invariably have a guest from time to time who will say annoying things. It only happens occasionally. I am trying to express that this change of pace when watching the Olympics and reading Substack and a few other email newsletters, has been a positive experience.
"As the generational wheels turns in the Democratic Party, our rising generation - Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Jeffries, Shapiro, Kelly, Polis, Padilla, Warnock, Buttigieg, RAIMONDO, Polis, Walz, Wes Moore, AOC, Ben Wikler, Anderson Clayton, etc - is experienced, inspiring, capable and ready to lead" (emphasis ours).
We have to respectfully disagree with you on Raimondo. She is anything BUT inspiring and capable. If anything, history will probably prove her an obstacle to Biden's ambitious agenda to shift the center of American politics towards more pro-working class policies.
At the end of the day, she is a pro-corporate relic of the Bloomberg wing of the Democratic Party. Personally, we thought hiring her was one of the President's biggest mistakes (even though we think the President has had a fantastic presidency otherwise).
In fact, her career before going to the national stage was abysmal. Just to give a quick rundown: disastrous "pension reforms" as RI Treasurer, a disastrous COVID vaccine rollout as Governor of Rhode Island, a UHIP debacle, the terrible conditions at a state-run hospital for the disabled (Eleanor Slater Hospital), the Washington Bridge breakdown and Raimondo's potential role in that (information pending), and many more.
TBH this is the first mention of Gina Raimondo as part of the “rising generation” I’ve seen. I honestly don’t think most people, even political junkies like ourselves, have much of an opinion of her one way or another. People like Gretchen Whitmer, AOC, and Pete Buttigieg are *far* more visible, and are more what people think of when they think of rising young stars.
And there’s always going to be a “meh” in the bunch. That’s the way it is when we have a big tent party. It’s fine to be “meh” on Raimondo - horses for courses - but I think she’s definitely a lesser star next to Whitmer, Buttigieg, Jeffries, Wes Moore, Anderson Clayton and so on.
Not rare reactions nationwide, which is why it is worth taking note. We do have many other great Rhode Islanders though like JB Poersch, Seth Klaiman, John Pastore, Claiborne Pell, & Jack Reed.
But to not distract from the message though. There is clearly a deep bench of rising stars in the party even in places that are often not the most favorable terrain for us. And a very diverse bench at that. Not just congressional lawmakers or statewide officers, but even state legislators, municipal level leaders, and state party chairs. The bench today can actually be credited indirectly to Donald Trump, whose backlash in 2018, 2020, and 2022 helped engage new people into the political process and remain active now.
And yes, we have to second the motion of your reflective nature of how the President will represent the nation in these coming years depending on what happens now.
I know Simon will definitely disagree with David Axelrod's assessment of the battleground states, but the point is clear -- we are not guaranteed to win, and we need to fight. When the enemy is wobbled, you hit them to knock them out.
"There's a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was gonna look like," Axelrod said.
"Now people feel like there's a chance. But it's absolutely Trump's race to lose right now. He is ahead, and he is ahead in most battleground states," Axelrod said.
"I think it's a wide-open race but Trump had the advantage right now and everybody should be sober about that on the Democratic side."
Now at the polls they'll check your identification AND the quality of your exuberance before you can vote. No one whose exuberance seems irrational to David Axelrod will be given a ballot.
There was an author - forgot his name off the top of my head but he wrote a book called something like The Big Lie, about Republican control of media megaphones - who said that one thing Democrats do is to believe their opponents have incredibly strong powers of persuasion, of crafty thinking, of general formidability. Republicans are a force of nature!
That isn’t true at all. I haven’t seen such enthusiasm on the Democratic side since Barack Obama in 2008.
I think we figure people like the felon MUST have some kind of arcane power, because how else could they make people believe that crap? But the real answer is that a lot of people are ill informed, or poorly educated, or not very bright, or indoctrinated, or they’re just jerks.
We are not *guaranteed* a win, yeah no SHIT Sherlock. Who does Axelrod think he is, coming in to drop a hot, steaming one in our collective punch bowl? I suppose he’s hedging his bets just in case the worst happens and he can look like the wise Cassandra who was right when everyone else was wrong?
And where has he BEEN the past few weeks when fundraising has broken records? Does he really really think that all these Demographics for Kamala are going to go “welp she has it in the bag, might as well stay home!” Does he have that little confidence in voters or does he just think he’s better than everyone else because he’s a pessimist?
To whom? Axelrod? LOL. I’ll be civil when he stops wagging his finger at us like we’re childish and he’s Just Trying To Be Helpful.
The comments here are dunking on him right and left. The implication that we’re just a bunch of kids on a sugar high and won’t show up to vote when it’s time is completely wrong, when look at the fundraising! Look at the enthusiasm for post card writing! Postcards to Swing Voters had to pause sign ups! Does Axelrod or anyone else think that this is “irrational exuberance?”
I am happy to be civil to my fellow Hopium commenters here, because I like the substack and I don’t want Simon to have to step in and break up fights any more than he has to. But I can be as mean as I please to David Axelrod, because he’s not going to come in here and comment. As long as I keep it to political views and commentary and nothing personal or bigoted. That’s how I see it, anyway. I don’t think David Axelrod knows or cares what I say about him.
Complacency killed us in 2016. We saw this little man flailing in the water and assumed he was a joke. And while I'm well aware this isn't 2016, I don't want us falling victim to it again. Complacency is a the worst way to lose.
There was no enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton the way there is for Kamala Harris. Look at the fundraising, look at how many people are signing up to send postcards (Postcards to Swing States had to pause sign ups while they caught up!) - I remember 2008, and what I see on the ground now can only be compared to the heady days of Barack Obama.
I will worry about “complacency” when the FBI announces it’s investigating Kamala Harris’ emails.
I didn't see a separate email invite to my gmail inbox, but rather there is a post by Simon specific to subscribers that I read in my inbox on the Substack app where I read all my subscription posts, including Hopium Chronicles. There's a 'register' link in that post that I used to sign up for this week's mtg. Perhaps you have a similar situation?
You are correct in stating that we are motivated by emotions such as hope and joy. From a purely psychological perspective, this can be proven. But we could all probably attest to it. When we get texts or emails with messages such as, “we are in trouble…we need your donation NOW,” most of us react with despair and scroll right on past. Who wants to jump on board a sinking ship? It’s important that we tune out negative voices, tune in positive, energizing voices, and keep WORKING to get Harris elected. And let’s all use our positive voices in speaking to one another! This will help keep the momentum going.
“I believe, deeply that joy and hope are more powerful than hate and fear.”
I’m so with you on this, Simon! Thanks for stating it so boldly, and for your dedicated encouragement which is truly inspiring - also for sharing polls & statistics to support it‼️🙏🏽
David Axelrod's sactimomious comments aside, we are definitely ahead in the polls. Most 538 polling, and the infamous Nate Cohn NYTimes poll especially, is GOP/Trump biased. How? Simple. The pollsters include far more GOP leaning respondents than is justified by US demographics by over including rural voters by 8% to 15%. Rural voters support Trump vs a Democrat by 65-35%! This misalignment can skew the statistical results by 4-6%. Therefore, if Trump and Kamala are tied in a swing state or nationally, Kamala is actually ahead by ~5%.
What a difference two weeks makes! Has it just been two weeks?!? Wow - what energy and real joy! So wonderful to see democrats come together- especially the next generation of leaders! Can’t go wrong with the VP pick. Great to share this exciting time with all of you - thank you Simon for all you do! 🥥🌴💕
We were just talking about that yesterday over our morning coffee. Only 2 weeks ago we found out President Biden was withdrawing his candidacy and endorsing Kamala Harris. What that has set in motion is truly phenomenal!
Thanks, Simon. I hope Ruben Gallego is reading your Hopium posts. His campaign really needs to adopt what you said above: "It is possible that in the coming weeks we will need to seek our motivation not from worry and fear but from something far more powerful - from joy, from strength, from confidence, from winning. I’ve always rejected the idea that you want to act as if you are a few points down in an election. When you are down in an election you lose people, volunteers, money. People want to know their work and money can help a campaign or cause be successful."
The emails and texts I get from his campaign are really negative and even have a tone of desperation. I suppose this might be a "normal" fundraising strategy, but, as a volunteer and donor, I really find it discouraging.
Anyway, thank YOU for the encouragement and positive reinforcement today! I needed that. Cheers!
TBH I think the doom and gloom emails are boilerplate that every single damn candidate uses. Every time without fail when I donate through ActBlue I am swamped with these emails and they ALL have the same wording. You are right in that I think Gallego, if he’s using them, should swap them out, but I don’t think there is anything in particular going sideways with HIS campaign, it’s just Standard Doomocrats Boilerplate Email.
I will sometimes get a doom-and-gloom fundraising email from a candidate (“Subject: We’re so screwed!”) followed within the same day by a sunshine-and-flowers fundraising email from the same candidate (“Subject: The GOP doesn’t know what hit ‘em!”). I can only assume that some donors respond primarily to the former message, and other donors respond primarily to the latter, so the campaigns just alternate between the two messages. But agreed: it’s super annoying. Ah well.
I'm at the point of deleting all campaign solicitations without even opening them. I have my own strategy for donating and I don't need them to help me decide.
Well said, Gordon. I would also suggest that they consider a "Kari is weird" message because it's true. Maybe not quite as weird as JD, but she did vacuum the welcome rug for Donald's visit in high heels. The was very very strange.
Pointing out that she went from being a very normal, very sane, yoga mom anchorperson who voted for Obama in 2012, to an all-in MAGA cultist who tells McCain voters they are not welcome in 2022, might be a good thing as well.
Agree with your assessment, Gordon. I get served Ruben Gallego ads by YouTube especially when I’m perusing the MeidasTouch Network. Ruben always starts out by saying he has “bad news,” and I hit Skip as soon as it’s available. I’m not in the mood for bad news right now.
I’ve donated extra to Ruben through Hopium because it seemed to me that his fund was lagging behind some of the other campaigns we support. I enjoyed his video interview with Simon, consider him a great candidate, and want him to beat Kari Lake.
I’ve been somewhat disturbed by the “bad news” ads and frankly was surprised to see him ahead in the polls Simon provided today. Surprised, but pleased! I’ll keep donating because I want him to win. But I wish he would moderate his message. 😞
Upvote for "psephology"!
Her kids call her Momala. I call her President Karmala Harris. Karmala is a place in India. The word means “destiny”.
It’s probably a mistake to try and shift focus every time a major event happens in the world during the campaign. For instance, McCain really hurt himself by “suspending his campaign” to “deal” with the stock market crash of 2008. It’s all about worry less, do more. It’s pointless to worry about the things beyond our control. All that said, there is an opportunity here for Harris if she gets out in front of the market troubles, ties the Fed leadership to the past (running against a past president means you can saddle him with his record, even though he is not the incumbent), and positions herself as the future. Possible taking points: 1. Trump-appointee Jerome Powell’s mishandling of monetary policy shows it’s time for a change and she will appoint someone new as soon as she is elected. 2. The Fed should meet for an emergency rate cut ASAP. 3. Billionaires like Trump’s backer Elon Musk can survive in any economy, but her policies are aimed at working families (I think the clip from Atlanta in which Trump admits he’s changing his position on electric cars because Elon endorsed him would make a good ad).
The market will bounce back soon. It always does. That said why do we pay a Fed millions of dollars each year? Almost anyone could do that job.
The market volatility is the carry trade adjustments in the Yen initiated by Japan. See Tooze today. Whether it spins out remains to be seen. While there is an argument for an emergency meeting of the Fed - it also implies panic. see Krugman today. Powell's Chair term ends in May 2026, his Board term in 2028. There's a lot to be said for stability in monetary policy. Reading the indicators is akin to reading these early polls. I hope Truth Social invested in carry trade.
Could you please explain "carry trade adjustments in the Yen initiated by Japan?" I'm not sure what that is referring to.
Here's the Reuters article on this: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-rout-positioning-analysis-pix-2024-08-05/
Sounds like a major trigger of this turbulence is nervousness by "investors" who were treating these currencies and markets more like a casino. And also, that in the greater scheme of things, this is really nothing more than a relatively minor adjustment. Is that a correct understanding or am I way off the mark?
I'm not an economist, but talking about the Fed as a campaign issue to get the middle class worried aabout 401k accounts on your side is something Republicans are willing to do. Democrats think that just because you shouldn't actually interfere with the Fed, it means they can't say anything at all. Josh Marshall discusses this issue today at TPM: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/annals-of-fed-misses
It is pretty simple if people ask why the market is correcting/potentially entering a bear market, the answer is "JPOW blew it." He blew it in raising rates, and he blew it dropping them. Just another example of why you should not trust Republicans.
Thom Hartmann has contended that Powell is trying to push us into a recession. I don't know if I'd go that far, but it sure looks that way. I'm not an economist, though as Richard Thaler once said, lots of things are obvious to everyone but economists.....
A better way to look at it is JPOW probably thinks the ideal inflation rate is 2% and ideal unemployment rate is 5%. He feels he has room on the unemployment side. If you watched his last press conference he seemed surprised everyone was bent out of shape over 4.1% unemployment.
There’s very mixed reporting on the market now. I know Paul Krugman is calling for an emergency cut but others indicate the Fed will meet if it needs to before Sept. One problem
is a meeting before Sept. can cause more panic. I’ve seen a couple of reports more measured—one saying the Fed can’t meet every time the market is down.
Brian, excellent post! Let me add another talking point:
4. Fed’s high rates are actually inflationary. (As shown by Robert Kuttner and others.)
Thought I'd drop this here, too: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-05/don-t-panic-here-s-what-s-behind-today-s-sell-off
We are trying to write 50 postcards a day at my house, the plan is to get to 1000 and mail them on October 24. We are in Rancho Mirage California so our mission is to get rid of fossilized retread Ken Calvert.
You are amazing! I'm meeting with about 12 friends once per week and we crank out hundreds of postcards. We're upping our membership to 20, so we're growing! We'll start phonebanking soon.
Nice!
Runfast, we try to always be working on batches of 50 also. Hats off to you, don't forget the Uniball Jetstream pen which reduces writer fatigue 🥥🌴💪 (means coconut tree strong) Go Team Hopium!
Ah - it was you who recommended these pens! I didn’t think it would matter, but after I ordered them, I haven’t used my old favorite since. Thank you! 😊
I looked but could not find a small set of only blue-ink pens. I don’t want a mix!
The Senate outcome hinges on a surge from the top (obviously). Dems could not have imagined the spot they find themselves in today… the day after the debate. Simon has a good take on things… as almost always.
As much as he annoys me, David Axelrod recently issued a cautionary warning to Democrats about irrational exuberance: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/08/03/axelrod_a_lot_of_irrational_exuberance_around_kamala_harris_it_is_absolutely_trumps_race_to_lose_right_now.html. I think we need to acknowledge (and I'm pretty sure we do) that we're in a tough race and we're going to have to work hard to win this thing. There will always be external forces that shift: the economy, global unrest. We need to keep on. I strongly recommend Stacey Abram's new podcast on Crooked Media, "Assembly Required,":https://crooked.com/podcast-series/assemblyrequired/. Lots of great advice and strategies for all of us! On YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPI8wJ3PSHk6W4oGJfxy2qw/about
Axelrod is now bitter because he didn’t want Harris. He’s now writing for Republican rcp? The guy is a prick. Plouffe was the actual brains in the Obama campaign - he’s now working for Harris. I would take Axelrod with a huge grain of salt - no one is resting on their laurels.
I'm not sure I agree with your take. I think we need to be careful. Sorry, I don't think he's wrong. We can win, but it's not going to be a cakewalk is all he's saying.
The problem with the analysis is that even if true, irrational exuberance often accompanies winning campaigns. Obama's team might have felt things were uncertain, but everyone I knew seemed sure and pumped that he was going to win way, way, way before he locked up the nomination.
Heck the Republicans even made documentaries about how in their opinion media lost its mind and anointed him president on hype alone. Irrational exuberance is substantively different than over confidence.
Fair enough
For my part, I’m tired of being warned against complacency. Who’s complacent? I’m terrified!
Axelrod didn't write anything for RCP. It just quotes his comments on CNN that they linked to.
Well regardless, to quote President Biden “he’s a prick.”
Biden called Axelrod a prick?
Yep
I googled and found a couple of articles.
Stacey Abrams is someone we should listen to. Axelrod is not, I think, worth listening to. Exuberant people vote. Disengaged people stay home. What does he think this is? He's been out of the game so long he forgot the point of a campaign is to mobilize supporters to vote, not perform for pundits. It's like a sports commentator at the NCAA basketball tournament saying, "This sixth rank team is really outplaying this first ranked team. Looks like irrational exuberance to me. They should really try to rein that in and get their scoring back under control." We all know that Axelrod always loathed Joe Biden and called for him to drop out minutes after the debate. But apparently he didn't really want him to, because now that Joe is gone, Axe is mad. He just wanted Joe to fail, not for Democrats to succeed! Makes no sense, but I challenge anyone to come up with a better explanation for why he would describe a party winning in the polls, raising tons of money, and energizing the base with this "irrational exuberance" horseshit.
I think he is worth listening to. He was right about Biden and frankly, it's always good to be cautious and not take things for granted. The mood has shifted, we're all very excited and it's okay to be exhuberant, just not delusional. I don't have any antimosity towards Axelrod -- he wants us to win.
But optimism and “Yes We Kam” gets us the win! Not “be careful.” That’s more like pre-emptive pessimism - “if I don’t get my hopes up I won’t be too disappointed, blah blah”
Axelrod can take himself and his wet blanket somewhere else. He is not wanted.
He is contending that this is trump's race to lose. I find that very ill informed, and question his credibility. I read this on Dkos which referenced some interview he did.
Indeed, how is it Trump's race to lose? He lost the popular vote in 2016 and 2020. He lost the House in 2018 and 2020. He lost the Senate in 2020 and (especially with his MAGA weirdo candidates) in 2022. The idea that Trump's win is inevitable sounds like propaganda. Women preferred Biden. Ten million more women than men voted in 2020. Even more will vote this time for our Vice President. Please, Axe, do tell me how I'm supposed to take anything you say as remotely based upon my lived experience as a woman in the United States of America. I'm joyful, exuberant and totally rational.
You have a right to your reactions; please do not tell me how to feel. I apologize if I've crossed the boundaries of appropriate Hopium comment
I’m not sure he does want us to win. He wants to keep cashing checks from cnn - whoever helps him get the most money is who he’s about. Axelrod is no friend.
I just wonder exactly who Axelrod thinks he’s writing for. Do you know one single Kamala supporter who would otherwise work hard to get Kamala elected, but who has opted not to because he/she is convinced that Kamala has this race clinched? ‘Cause I sure don’t.
Oh word, David Axelrod, this is gonna be a very tough battle? Gee thanks, I had no idea. Appreciate you sharing your expertise, Dave.
It's the media environment. Giving an unpopular opinion gets you a lot of attention and there's no negative consequence for it later. It's what turned the NY Times from the world's newspaper of record into what it is today.
100%. If Trump wins, Axelrod gets to present himself as the Cassandra who went unheeded. If Harris wins, Axelrod’s warnings will be promptly forgotten, and his pundit career proceeds apace.
"Nate, you predicted a red wave in 2022. It didn't happen, you have told us, because people are too stupid to understand your model. Now, for triple your usual appearance fee, tell us what you are predicting for 2024 and what will you say when it doesn't happen."
Axelrod can’t help himself from being the wet blanket, skunk at the picnic, turd in the punch bowl, pick your metaphor. Nobody is “irrationally exuberant,” for god’s sake, we are just on an energy and enthusiasm wave that we haven’t seen since Obama in 2008.
Swear to god 2016 has *permanently* broken some brains. It’s also destroyed nighttime dryness.
Axelrod reminds of someone who used to be part of the cool kids group, got kicked out, and is bitter over it. I won't forget how he treated Hillary in 2016. He was always putting her down under the guise of being balanced and fair. Then, he was extremely critical of Biden and now telling us to be careful about being over confident or however he phrased it. Worry and Catastrophizing is not preparation. Honestly, I really do think Axelrod is bitter - either that or smug while making money by criticizing his party under the guise of fairness. I love Biden AND I'm happy with how things are going right now. So yeah, I don't care what Axelrod thinks. pffft! Go Harris and whomever she picks as VP running mate. 💙
Axelrod is the new best friend of Newsmax and Fox. I know this because my hubby watches those channels, and I can't help hearing some of their propaganda even though I try to avoid it hitting my ears.
What a contrast these Olympic games have been to the MAGA chant! We are great, we are gracious in defeat and in victory. We are diverse. We don't "turn" -- we are. That's patriotism in my book.
We definitely don't want the Trump regime in power for the LA Olympics - talk about a Berlin 1936 vibe. No thanks!
I am glad you brought up the Olympics. I have been thoroughly enjoying watching. It is nice to tune in and reduce some of my television news intake. I've been getting my political news filled by Substack writers, and I consider myself well-informed. I am also less aggravated as on some of the shows I like on MSNBC, even though I enjoy the host's perspectives, they will invariably have a guest from time to time who will say annoying things. It only happens occasionally. I am trying to express that this change of pace when watching the Olympics and reading Substack and a few other email newsletters, has been a positive experience.
"As the generational wheels turns in the Democratic Party, our rising generation - Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, Jeffries, Shapiro, Kelly, Polis, Padilla, Warnock, Buttigieg, RAIMONDO, Polis, Walz, Wes Moore, AOC, Ben Wikler, Anderson Clayton, etc - is experienced, inspiring, capable and ready to lead" (emphasis ours).
We have to respectfully disagree with you on Raimondo. She is anything BUT inspiring and capable. If anything, history will probably prove her an obstacle to Biden's ambitious agenda to shift the center of American politics towards more pro-working class policies.
At the end of the day, she is a pro-corporate relic of the Bloomberg wing of the Democratic Party. Personally, we thought hiring her was one of the President's biggest mistakes (even though we think the President has had a fantastic presidency otherwise).
In fact, her career before going to the national stage was abysmal. Just to give a quick rundown: disastrous "pension reforms" as RI Treasurer, a disastrous COVID vaccine rollout as Governor of Rhode Island, a UHIP debacle, the terrible conditions at a state-run hospital for the disabled (Eleanor Slater Hospital), the Washington Bridge breakdown and Raimondo's potential role in that (information pending), and many more.
For a taste behind the facts of these separate issues, take a look at my post called "The Gina Raimondo Files." See https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/the-gina-raimondo-files-a-new-release.
Best wishes,
Michael and David Salzillo
Ask public workers how she treated their pensions in RI. She is not the future of my party.
TBH this is the first mention of Gina Raimondo as part of the “rising generation” I’ve seen. I honestly don’t think most people, even political junkies like ourselves, have much of an opinion of her one way or another. People like Gretchen Whitmer, AOC, and Pete Buttigieg are *far* more visible, and are more what people think of when they think of rising young stars.
And there’s always going to be a “meh” in the bunch. That’s the way it is when we have a big tent party. It’s fine to be “meh” on Raimondo - horses for courses - but I think she’s definitely a lesser star next to Whitmer, Buttigieg, Jeffries, Wes Moore, Anderson Clayton and so on.
Guys this is deeply unhelpful at this time and unwelcome here.
Not rare reactions nationwide, which is why it is worth taking note. We do have many other great Rhode Islanders though like JB Poersch, Seth Klaiman, John Pastore, Claiborne Pell, & Jack Reed.
But to not distract from the message though. There is clearly a deep bench of rising stars in the party even in places that are often not the most favorable terrain for us. And a very diverse bench at that. Not just congressional lawmakers or statewide officers, but even state legislators, municipal level leaders, and state party chairs. The bench today can actually be credited indirectly to Donald Trump, whose backlash in 2018, 2020, and 2022 helped engage new people into the political process and remain active now.
And yes, we have to second the motion of your reflective nature of how the President will represent the nation in these coming years depending on what happens now.
Best wishes:
Michael & David
I know Simon will definitely disagree with David Axelrod's assessment of the battleground states, but the point is clear -- we are not guaranteed to win, and we need to fight. When the enemy is wobbled, you hit them to knock them out.
www.businessinsider.com/axelrod-trump-ahead-harris-his-race-to-lose-right-now-2024-8%3famp
"There's a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was gonna look like," Axelrod said.
"Now people feel like there's a chance. But it's absolutely Trump's race to lose right now. He is ahead, and he is ahead in most battleground states," Axelrod said.
"I think it's a wide-open race but Trump had the advantage right now and everybody should be sober about that on the Democratic side."
“the point is clear -- we are not guaranteed to win, and we need to fight.”
Who doesn’t know that already? Like, specifically? What is the name of even one Democrat to whom the above observation would be novel?
There is no way to look at the data in front of us and conclude Trump has an advantage. This is red wave Trump has magical powers thinking
Now at the polls they'll check your identification AND the quality of your exuberance before you can vote. No one whose exuberance seems irrational to David Axelrod will be given a ballot.
That’s worth a Saturday Night Live sketch!
Not sure if I should laugh 😂 - okay I will laugh - you're funny
There was an author - forgot his name off the top of my head but he wrote a book called something like The Big Lie, about Republican control of media megaphones - who said that one thing Democrats do is to believe their opponents have incredibly strong powers of persuasion, of crafty thinking, of general formidability. Republicans are a force of nature!
That isn’t true at all. I haven’t seen such enthusiasm on the Democratic side since Barack Obama in 2008.
I think we figure people like the felon MUST have some kind of arcane power, because how else could they make people believe that crap? But the real answer is that a lot of people are ill informed, or poorly educated, or not very bright, or indoctrinated, or they’re just jerks.
We are not *guaranteed* a win, yeah no SHIT Sherlock. Who does Axelrod think he is, coming in to drop a hot, steaming one in our collective punch bowl? I suppose he’s hedging his bets just in case the worst happens and he can look like the wise Cassandra who was right when everyone else was wrong?
And where has he BEEN the past few weeks when fundraising has broken records? Does he really really think that all these Demographics for Kamala are going to go “welp she has it in the bag, might as well stay home!” Does he have that little confidence in voters or does he just think he’s better than everyone else because he’s a pessimist?
Your tone could afford a little more civility.
To whom? Axelrod? LOL. I’ll be civil when he stops wagging his finger at us like we’re childish and he’s Just Trying To Be Helpful.
The comments here are dunking on him right and left. The implication that we’re just a bunch of kids on a sugar high and won’t show up to vote when it’s time is completely wrong, when look at the fundraising! Look at the enthusiasm for post card writing! Postcards to Swing Voters had to pause sign ups! Does Axelrod or anyone else think that this is “irrational exuberance?”
He has 100% failed to read the room.
Bingo - being nice to an openly hostile pundit like Axelrod is more counterproductive than not being sufficiently nice.
I am happy to be civil to my fellow Hopium commenters here, because I like the substack and I don’t want Simon to have to step in and break up fights any more than he has to. But I can be as mean as I please to David Axelrod, because he’s not going to come in here and comment. As long as I keep it to political views and commentary and nothing personal or bigoted. That’s how I see it, anyway. I don’t think David Axelrod knows or cares what I say about him.
Complacency killed us in 2016. We saw this little man flailing in the water and assumed he was a joke. And while I'm well aware this isn't 2016, I don't want us falling victim to it again. Complacency is a the worst way to lose.
There was no enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton the way there is for Kamala Harris. Look at the fundraising, look at how many people are signing up to send postcards (Postcards to Swing States had to pause sign ups while they caught up!) - I remember 2008, and what I see on the ground now can only be compared to the heady days of Barack Obama.
I will worry about “complacency” when the FBI announces it’s investigating Kamala Harris’ emails.
How can I get the Wednesday invite again? Maybe I deleted it in error? Thanks!
I didn't see a separate email invite to my gmail inbox, but rather there is a post by Simon specific to subscribers that I read in my inbox on the Substack app where I read all my subscription posts, including Hopium Chronicles. There's a 'register' link in that post that I used to sign up for this week's mtg. Perhaps you have a similar situation?
Thanks, Margie!
You can also always find the paid subscriber invites on the site itself. They are a little buried but you can find them.
You are correct in stating that we are motivated by emotions such as hope and joy. From a purely psychological perspective, this can be proven. But we could all probably attest to it. When we get texts or emails with messages such as, “we are in trouble…we need your donation NOW,” most of us react with despair and scroll right on past. Who wants to jump on board a sinking ship? It’s important that we tune out negative voices, tune in positive, energizing voices, and keep WORKING to get Harris elected. And let’s all use our positive voices in speaking to one another! This will help keep the momentum going.
“I believe, deeply that joy and hope are more powerful than hate and fear.”
I’m so with you on this, Simon! Thanks for stating it so boldly, and for your dedicated encouragement which is truly inspiring - also for sharing polls & statistics to support it‼️🙏🏽
One can always count on Axelrod spreading doom and gloom. Maybe need a dose of irrational exuberance.
David Axelrod's sactimomious comments aside, we are definitely ahead in the polls. Most 538 polling, and the infamous Nate Cohn NYTimes poll especially, is GOP/Trump biased. How? Simple. The pollsters include far more GOP leaning respondents than is justified by US demographics by over including rural voters by 8% to 15%. Rural voters support Trump vs a Democrat by 65-35%! This misalignment can skew the statistical results by 4-6%. Therefore, if Trump and Kamala are tied in a swing state or nationally, Kamala is actually ahead by ~5%.
What a difference two weeks makes! Has it just been two weeks?!? Wow - what energy and real joy! So wonderful to see democrats come together- especially the next generation of leaders! Can’t go wrong with the VP pick. Great to share this exciting time with all of you - thank you Simon for all you do! 🥥🌴💕
We were just talking about that yesterday over our morning coffee. Only 2 weeks ago we found out President Biden was withdrawing his candidacy and endorsing Kamala Harris. What that has set in motion is truly phenomenal!
Thanks, Simon. I hope Ruben Gallego is reading your Hopium posts. His campaign really needs to adopt what you said above: "It is possible that in the coming weeks we will need to seek our motivation not from worry and fear but from something far more powerful - from joy, from strength, from confidence, from winning. I’ve always rejected the idea that you want to act as if you are a few points down in an election. When you are down in an election you lose people, volunteers, money. People want to know their work and money can help a campaign or cause be successful."
The emails and texts I get from his campaign are really negative and even have a tone of desperation. I suppose this might be a "normal" fundraising strategy, but, as a volunteer and donor, I really find it discouraging.
Anyway, thank YOU for the encouragement and positive reinforcement today! I needed that. Cheers!
TBH I think the doom and gloom emails are boilerplate that every single damn candidate uses. Every time without fail when I donate through ActBlue I am swamped with these emails and they ALL have the same wording. You are right in that I think Gallego, if he’s using them, should swap them out, but I don’t think there is anything in particular going sideways with HIS campaign, it’s just Standard Doomocrats Boilerplate Email.
I will sometimes get a doom-and-gloom fundraising email from a candidate (“Subject: We’re so screwed!”) followed within the same day by a sunshine-and-flowers fundraising email from the same candidate (“Subject: The GOP doesn’t know what hit ‘em!”). I can only assume that some donors respond primarily to the former message, and other donors respond primarily to the latter, so the campaigns just alternate between the two messages. But agreed: it’s super annoying. Ah well.
I'm at the point of deleting all campaign solicitations without even opening them. I have my own strategy for donating and I don't need them to help me decide.
You and me both!
Well said, Gordon. I would also suggest that they consider a "Kari is weird" message because it's true. Maybe not quite as weird as JD, but she did vacuum the welcome rug for Donald's visit in high heels. The was very very strange.
Pointing out that she went from being a very normal, very sane, yoga mom anchorperson who voted for Obama in 2012, to an all-in MAGA cultist who tells McCain voters they are not welcome in 2022, might be a good thing as well.
OMG, I forgot about her evolution from normal to weirdo. Good catch.
Agree with your assessment, Gordon. I get served Ruben Gallego ads by YouTube especially when I’m perusing the MeidasTouch Network. Ruben always starts out by saying he has “bad news,” and I hit Skip as soon as it’s available. I’m not in the mood for bad news right now.
I’ve donated extra to Ruben through Hopium because it seemed to me that his fund was lagging behind some of the other campaigns we support. I enjoyed his video interview with Simon, consider him a great candidate, and want him to beat Kari Lake.
I’ve been somewhat disturbed by the “bad news” ads and frankly was surprised to see him ahead in the polls Simon provided today. Surprised, but pleased! I’ll keep donating because I want him to win. But I wish he would moderate his message. 😞