This is unfortunately what's wrong with most people's engagement in elections. They are in for the excitement and for the entertainment. Trust me, where I come from, many charismatic leaders have failed us. What should be important is whether our leader has the skills and wisdom to get the job done to make your life better. The answer is a resounding YES for Biden, more than any charismatic leader. Obama got played by Republicans during his 8 years. His charisma did not prevent Mitch McConnell from pushing an extra conservative Supreme Court down our throats for generations to come. With Biden, the tables have turned. Mitch got played by Biden.
i don't agree his decline is serious mental pathology; it is clearly normal aging; he is very old. The pope ain't what he used to be either, but the pope doesn't have to run for re-election. This is where it looks like our man won't be able to do what is necessary against a buzzsaw that's coming for him. And people know it. They are mostly worried about trump's return, which would be an in your face shit show. This is driving people to call for Biden to step aside; it's not that they don't like him. Never has been. And focus groups show that.
It's not that cut and dry. My community sees what Biden is doing first before his age (it's actually a joke punchline, we know he is old). Now it's a matter of doing the math. Can a winning coalition see Biden's governance skills first before the optics? I believe so. I actually think it will take more convincing for a new nominee, say Harris.
I’m fully on board with the team we nominate for the ticket. But I agree with you that we’ve yet to hear about the LOGISTICS of a change. I’ve asked in this forum dozens of times, I’ve asked in other forums… no one yet has explained how that will happen. That gives me major pause.
On the other hand, Simon is as smart and as connected as they come (as far as those who have an open dialogue community with us normies), and I want to be able to assume that if this was truly a serious issue he would address it.
I don’t know what to think these days. I just know we need to get on the same page IMMEDIATELY because TRUMP CANNOT WIN.
Obviously, but no one has explained the logistics other than those pointing out the complications and risks. If we are all being asked to have an opinion about this, whether that opinion matters or not, we need all the information. For example, if the two surveys Simon shared had been worded: do you think President Biden should step aside, even though it will put the democratic ticket at risk of not being on the ballot in every state and will cost millions in legal fees to make the change that could have been spent campaigning? Well, you can see the answers to those surveys might be quite different.
I think I’m correct that by getting on the same page immediately you mean if Biden is to be our candidate or someone else. Yes. This is information we need but it’s also beyond our control.
I think an important distinction to make is that the Democrat Party is united (right now!) no matter who our candidate is.
One thing we have going for us right now is that Project 2025 is getting a lot more traction in the media and on social networks. People are beginning to understand how specific policies will affect them personally and they don’t like it. This is a ball we can run with!
This was an inappropriate post, and I am taking it down. This is not about any of us. It is about the country, our democracy, our freedoms and our future. Work to bring people together. That is our charge. Thank you all.
Dan this violated every possible understanding of how we talk to each other in this community and you have lost posting privileges for one month. Thank you.
And wise words from Umair Twitter handle @umairh):
You know this sinking “is everything over” feeling? From democracy to your life? THAT’S fascism. The emotional core of it, which is to terrorize you at an existential level. Stay strong and hang tough. Head in the game. That’s how democracy prevails.
The 2024 Republican Platform is like excrement squeezed between folded paper. Unfolded, it is now a Rorschach Test onto which duped voters can project what they want.
In reality, the Republican Platform is the disguised Trump’s Project 2025. And it smells precisely like the toxic shite it is.
Fortunately, throughout the nation, millions of good American patriots are rising up to fight to make sure Trump never again returns to the Oval Office, and that he and his cult can never turn his Fascist project into reality.
I think it’s fair that there are still doubts about Joe Biden. He has been a remarkable president, but he’s slowing down because age only goes one way. Unfortunately, his lifelong battle with a stutter or any slight mistep is now greatly amplified in this current political climate.
We need a true decision on our candidate soon and then for us all to rally behind it (whatever the decision)
Whether President Biden stays or goes, I’m voting for and volunteering for the party that has plans for the future. The Democratic Party has real solutions for the economy, the climate, and the health of our democracy.
Hi! I think Biden wants to stay -- he's been pretty clear in that, right? I think that we should just support that. He seems fine to me? This relentless focus is silly. We should rally behind him, and learn from the way that divisions between Bernie and Hillary Democrats weakened us -- and presaged the loss to Trump.
Him wanting to stay, which is what he has to do publicly, even if he’s privately wavering, doesn’t change a reality that a large part of our coalition is not currently behind him.
I agree his recent speeches and interviews are better, but he is still an older man at 81 years old. I think he has good support and a good team around him. I personally think he can win.
That said, a good chunk of people don’t. That fracture isn’t healed by commanding people to get on board. He still has some shaky moments in his speeches and interviews that are amplified by the scrutiny.
I don’t know how to reassure everyone, but his campaign needs to find a way to reassure the majority of our coalition.
Personally, I think that right-wing operatives are behind all of this. That they are fueling it. Seeding these stories to the press. Encouraging the division among us. I just wish we could unify against this terrible common threat.
I respectfully disagree. We’ve all seen Biden’s debate, his interviews with George Stephanopoulos and Lester Holt. Yes, his speech at NATO was powerful as are some other examples but overall Biden doesn’t have the fire, the grit or the strong voice to counter the optics of trump. We believe in sound policy and accomplishments and experience while half the country cares only about image. Strength. Virility.
If, as has been said, victory lies in the margins we need a candidate who can convince them we are the better choice.
It took me awhile to figure out where I stand on this. I tried to thoughtfully listen to different opinions on whether Biden should stay or step down. Then it took more time for me to have the guts to say I think he should step down.
I know it’s messy.
I know it’s unprecedented.
But these are messy, unprecedented times.
We gotta fight fire with fire.
(But yes…media knows how to capitalize on any chink in our armor…so I ignore them.)
Unfortunately, I've come to the conclusion that the media will go after any candidate the Dems put forward. We're not going to have a perfect candidate, no matter who that person is.
YES! They will go after any candidate and so will Russian bots. You think the MSM all of a sudden going to be nice to Kamala? I don’t think so. And how many of YOU who think Biden can not cut it would stay home? Any of you? Any of the 56% of Dems Simon says want Biden to step down? And pollsters, call me so I can tell you what I think!!
How about he steps down to vice president and continues to run the country, which he has done so well, and then lets Kamala free to get going to shake these Maga creeps until their self interested traitorous teeth rattle? Or do you think America is not ready to see a woman do that? It is so hard to see a clear path. But no matter what I’m returning to the land of my birth this summer to help any way I can with the Democratic ticket. Because Trump and that other ‘childless cat lady’ hating guy, anyone who is not a white well to do straight man is not really worthy or human - project 2024 - its just unthinkable the damage that could be done. More action... less thinking for me. Work, give - Stick with the blue wave plan. 🏴🇺🇸
I'm very sad to say I don't think our president is up to providing reassurance. I would like nothing more, nothing at all in this world at this time, than to confidently say I think Joe can do it. Not to say I don't think he can President. I think in many ways he is, and has been, an ideal president - wise, experienced, battle-hardened, compassionate, in touch with the lived experience of regular Americans. But he just cannot be a quick-witted, lively, spontaneous talker. Which, I think, is what people want to see.
So, if Joe stays, there's got to be a work-around. What can replace the candidate himself, enlarge the way his presidency is seen and judged? I don't know. But I think this is the way to look at the issue of reassurance, rather than hope Joe changes into a better performer.
Wanting to stay in a job for which you don’t exhibit fitness isn’t the benchmark. Woodrow Wilson wanted to run for a third term.
President Biden has a lifetime of service and a strong record over the past four years. We are fortunate that he selected a strong VP. It’d be great if he now ceded the obvious: he’s aging, it won’t “improve,” and the country would be better served by his turning over the keys to the Vice President.
He is doing the job right now. If you are paying attention which the press is not. Watch last week’s Brooks and Capehart and listen to Jonathan Capehart. He is my North Star on this.
The implication that I'm not "paying attention" is insulting. I've voted in every primary and general election since 2001, when I turned 18. Incidentally, that means that President Biden had been involved in electoral politics for decades before I was eligible to vote. Since I voted very enthusiastically for a ticket that included President Biden in 2008, 2012, and 2020, I think I'm qualified to judge whether the candidate exhibits the same level of fitness that he did on each of those three occasions. He clearly does not.
To be clear, I don't think he's any worse at extemporizing than Donald Trump. I think he gets lost in his train of thought just as often as Donald Trump. I agree that both men are held to different standards and that the press treatment of President Biden is unfair. But I don't need to "pay attention" to Jonathan Capehart or the repugnant David Brooks to know that my eyes do not deceive me and that Vice President Harris is a far more energetic and vigorous person than President Biden.
Like, sure, you can parse most of the sentences that NBC released of him talking to Lester Holt. And sure, lots of people might misspeak and say that they were proposing capping rent hikes at $55 (before losing their train of thought under the bright lights). But I think it's a little weird that we're clapping so enthusiastically for every three foot putt the guy taps in when we spent the previous term objecting to the cult of personality erected around the former president.
I keep trying to find the comment I made that you are responding to, and what implication I made about you not paying attention. I don’t know what you are referring to. I was not very enthusiastic about Biden in 2020 and I am now.
Let's not assume he lost his train of thought. That might actually be a coping strategy to deal with his stutter. One common coping strategy is to avoid words that tend to trip you up, and instead reformulate what you want to say in a different way.
I was recommending that anyone on this comment group watch Jonathan Capehart on PBS last week. I think he is the best. And he responds to David Brooks very well who I also don’t care for. If you took my suggestion personally as an insult, I think you missed my intention.
Far be it from me to squash discussion. BUT how much longer? During the primary we talked about his age—he won. For two weeks after the debate we talked about his performance—he is still standing. Now we’ve seen the naked evil of the MAGA take-over of the GOP—we have a good, decent candidate to support and he has said he’s all in. When does the discussion end so we can focus ALL of our energy, not into talk, but rather into action. No offense but I’m not really seeing new arguments. I feel like folks are repeating the same points and somehow expecting a different response. I’m an organizer. In my experience, stuff like this sucks the energy and enthusiasm out of campaigning. I feel like this can’t help but split our focus. Biden has been so much better than I expected. He has a sound team around him to help him govern. He has Kamala Harris to have his back. I want every ounce of my energy aimed at winning in November.
I agree with all of your points. And arguing in these forums isn't going to make a bit of difference, it's Biden, his family and Dem leaders who will decide, so why are we continuing to waste precious energy on this? I'll support WHOEVER is at the top of the Dem ticket! We MUST defeat this modern day Hitler and his MAGA mini-mes by staying hopeful and working like hell---just as Simon tells us, over and over.
I wish Simon wouldn't have opened up the floodgates in his last few posts. I'm not sure what happened to this site, but it's unrecognizable to me from 6 wks ago.
It understandably got lost in the sauce of the absolute shit show of the shooting and the RNC, but HCR mentioned yesterday that the White House doc had released the findings of Pres. Biden's February physical, which included a complete neurological exam. The only issue was peripheral neuropathy, which can affect his walking.
Inviting all fellow Hopium members to a virtual fundraiser for the Wisconsin Democrats, led by Ben Wikler. The in-person fundraiser will be at my home in Seattle on Tuesday, July 23rd, and will feature Dr. Lew Friedland, who is the expert on Wisconsin politics. I’ve traveled since 2018 to Wisconsin for get out the vote activities with the WisDems and they are some of the best!!
8/29/24 3p PT is Wisconsin day on FT 6 Textarcade.
AERIAL VIEW
Wisconsin is a Triple Word Score State! Democrats we register now can take back the House, and hold the Senate & White House! In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes – a razor-thin victory.
To save our Senate majority, we must re-elect Tammy Baldwin (D)!
To regain our House majority, we need to beat insurrectionist Derrick Van Orden (R) in WI-03!
And we need to make sure Wisconsin again goes blue for Biden/Harris!
We need to register WI Democrats – especially to vote by mail. This is a job for Field Team 6!
DEMOCRATS…
...are the only major party fighting Trumpism and the extremist MAGA Republicans.
...and the only party fighting for abortion rights, civil rights, immigrant rights, and LGBTQ+ rights.
...are fighting for access to health care, affordable college, and climate rescue.
REPUBLICANS...
...are waging a national war on voting rights.
...are fighting to eliminate access to healthcare.
IMPORTANT: Same day registration is available at your polling place on Election Day if deadlines (below) are missed. Remember to bring ID or another proof of residence document.
Registration deadlines for online and by mail (postmarked) for the General Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 is October 16, 2024 (20 days prior to the election).
You can register in person at the clerk’s office through November 1, 2024.
Absentee ballot application deadline for the General Presidential Election is tbd.
In Wisconsin, you can pre-register to vote at 17 years old if you will be 18 by Election Day.
If you need help getting an ID, contact VoteRiders.org or call/text 1-844-338-8743.
Mail ballots should be mailed back at least a week prior to the election; or dropped off at an Early Voting site, or at ANY polling location on Election Day (no ID or waiting in line required). Ballots not received by 7pm on Election Day will not count.
Simon - Please invite and/or talk to Prof Allan Lichtman. He uses the Keys to the White House to predict winners. His analysis is that either Biden stays in or he has to drop both the presidency (Harris would be acting pres) and give his delegates to Harris. An open convention would lead to our defeat!
I see his name thrown around a lot. I appreciate his framework as a way to think about the election, but he isn’t some mystic.
He’s called 5 if the last 6 presidential elections correctly. The odds of doing that given the binary choice in our country is around 20% assuming each team had an equal chance to win. Since some of these elections were much less close than others (Bush v Kerry, Obama v Romney) the odds of doing that only go up.
That's not clear at all. There's plenty of research showing Gore won, by a tiny bit,but it again came down to how things were counted. Other scenarios gave it to shrub.
Ben, I believe you also have to consider the major purge of people from Florida’s voter roll just before the election – a purge of Democratic-leaning voters that happened on Governor Jeb Bush’s watch.
Everyone named Foster was purged. Black white young old. I know. It’s my name. And you have to consider the butterfly ballot where tons of people voted for gore but marked it wrong.
Congress does. They updated the Electoral Count Act in 2022 in a bipartisan vote and clarified the Vice President (or whichever presiding officer) has a purely ceremonial role to play.
In 1968, VP Humphrey lost and didn’t preside over the count since he was attending a state funeral. I believe the tradition then is that the Senate President Pro Tem presides but I’d have to double check.
They also made it much harder to contest a slate of electors. The VP has never been able to do that, but all you needed was 1 senator and 1 representative. Now you need 1/5 of each house to contest it, making what happens in 2021 much less likely.
Which is why we have to win the House. The new House is seated several days before the counting of the electoral ballots. So hopefully, Hakeem Jefferies will be making the call.
Yes Simon, many of us who follow the professor would love to know how you feel about his 13 keys to the the White House , his near perfect record of predicting elections , and the importance of the incumbency and contest keys.
It can't be easy framing the Biden vs. no-Biden in a constructive way, but you did. At least we can all agree that keeping trump et al out of the White House has to be the priority, not only for the U.S. but for the world, as well.
Here is what my mom, who does not speak English, asked me to write to Joe:
"President Biden, some people are panicking after the debate not because they don't like you, or they won't vote for you. It's because of the powerful fear of losing to Trump and the consequences it will bring to their lives, especially immigrants like us.
I know you are compassionate man. You know how to speak to people in pain. Use that! Make them feel that you understand those fears, and you would not jeopardize their lives for your ego, if you know you couldn't beat Trump. Avoid railroading or dismissing these dissents. I believe the fact that there is so much fear of losing to Trump, there is no way he can win if we are in this together
My personal take on this is "ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES." People often engage in elections as if they are some form of entertainment, like a sport or beauty pageant. NO. For many people, it can be a matter of life and death: whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger, whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness, or whether you can seek due process for asylum because your life is at risk in your home country. All these issues are determined by decisions made by ELECTED POLITICIANS. So no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking MAN to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you.
Simon, the 56% of dems who think Biden should step down certainly aren’t going to vote for anyone else are they? It seems like everyone having this discussion about Biden staying or going want the same outcome: for Trump to lose, and they’d vote blue no matter what who. I certainly hope so.
We cannot go into the general with a large chuck of our party unhappy with the candidate and expect to win. We need everyone on board, 100% to be able to win and we just are not there right now. It's margin of effort not just margin of error.
What concrete assurances would you need to see? I’m just not sure he’ll be able to assuage people’s anxiety about his age short of aging backwards and that’s not going to happen. He says he’s not going anywhere and it sounds like maybe you think he needs to. I hate that we are in this position. So many people’s rights are on the line.
Jamie, I am one of those 56%. I am also one of those who was loudly calling BS when someone would say to me that President Biden was not up to it before the debate. But what we saw at the debate and the long wait before he did a second interview really cemented something deep in people.
What is it going to take? It will take him reaching people on a deep level. We are talking real feel it in our bones level and something with virality to it. A feisty defensive interview is not that. Winning a contested convention might do it, maybe a video of him deeply consoling someone going through loss might as well.
The reason it is such an issue is because people felt what they were worried about deep in their bones, and the response so far has looked like the political version of "Naw-uh" or surface level artifice of strength. It needs to be deep and meaningful to people. I needs to be something people want to talk about. It needs to be real and we need to see it from him live.
I have not seen more than a few seconds of it but I will watch it. But that kind of goes to the virality of what it would take. It has to move on its own and people have to want to talk about it and see it.
Simply put if a work from home Democrat who can basically watch or listen to this stuff all day can miss it it probably doesn't count.
So basically there’s nothing Biden can do to assuage you - he needs to luck into a viral moment? That’s a bit of an impossible task.
It’s real comforting to know that a bunch of nervous middle and retirement aged white guys are putting the country closer to fascism because they want to be assured Joe Biden is strong or tough or whatever it is you guys “need to see.”
It’s like the information from the speech pathologists and the great write-up Richard Hubbell did about confirmation bias and the faulty thinking of “seeing with your own eyes” was all just a waste of time for a lot of people. Truly disappointing and disheartening.
I just don’t see the time to get the country (or the swing states) on board with Harris and isn’t she the only viable replacement for Biden? Why isn’t it enough for Harris to be the VP and ready to go should Biden need to step down before the end of his next term? Seems to me there needs to be more runway for the first woman elected. I will vote for her but will PA MI WI NC or GA?
I agree with this! There is not time. We have to just stick with the candidate we have. He's imperfect, but he's what we have -- and we can beat Trump, and then think about the transition to Harris, afterward.
I do not understand the "not enough time" argument. It would be extraordinarily news worthy. The party would have to do very little to inform people. There would be both media buzz and general interest in Harris as the nominee, where she stood with Biden's policies and where she stood apart. That is out a head of the news cycle of her picking a VP.
Basically everything could port over, it is not like they would have to close a bunch of filed offices. As an established party it is not like she would have the hurdle of half a million signatures in every state. The only thing I can realistically think is there might be a run on yard signs, and talk about good problems to have.
The majority of our coalition is is going to vote for the nominee and the rest are basically shouting for a different option. It seems like they come with a built in permission structure. I recognize there are those who would be somewhat turned off by Harris but how many will be very turned off by Trumps contemptuous racist attacks on her. I think many more.
But if Biden were to resign, making Harris the president, who would be the new VP? If it comes down to the current house to confirm a new VP, lots of luck regarding getting the Repubs to even bring it to a vote. And if a new VP were not named, who would perform the ceremony of counting the electoral votes in January 2025? Not to mention that Mike Johnson would be next in line for the presidency, a sure-fire temptation for some MAGA nut to try to eliminate her.
I have not heard anyone ask President Biden to resign as president, nor do I expect he would do so. Everyone has been calling on him to step aside from the nomination.
But if that situation were to occur, I would welcome the house denying the President Harris a VP. That would be politically toxic, their front line members would hate it. I do not think he could Mitch McConnell it and not hold a vote. I could not think of a better real life example of political obstruction for voters to see right before an election.
Again, can anyone say with certainty that VP Harris could just take over the campaign funds and infrastructure? This isn’t fantasy football - would be nice if an actual federal elections law lawyer weighed in.
I think there are two risks that are being overlooked with this proposal. First, it would likely feed the long standing "Dems in Disarray" narrative that the MSM and RW propaganda machine push.
Second, assuming that everyone who is a Democratic or Democratic-leaning voter would automatically and enthusiastically align with Harris is a big question mark. I'm not 100% confident in that expectation, especially when it comes to independents. You can also guarantee the racist and misogynistic attacks will come furiously at her and will likely lower her current approval ratings.
But their unhappiness -- where does it come from? Is it real? It is because he's old? I guess I don't understand their unhappiness. That's why I react against it. Or, rather, I believe it's too late. It's important to be pragmatic about this. In politics, there is often no perfect choice. Obama was the master of this. The art of the compromise.
Where I’m stuck is what can Biden do to reassure voters at this point? Is there anything?
He’s had numerous events (interviews, speeches, rallies) that he’s performed better. As we’ve seen, they haven’t shifted people’s opinions.
He can’t release a detailed health report because he’s 81. No 81 year old doesn’t have some sort of health issue and the Republicans clearly aren’t going to release real medical information on Trump. So he’s just be gifting ammunition to use against him.
I’m a bit stumped on what path he can take forward other than just running out the clock (which would be unsatisfactory to his doubters).
Hi Simon! As always love your articles. I've sitting in my home in the battleground state of Nevada musing over what you and others have been saying. I see only 3 options for us:
Option#1: Stay with the Biden-Harris ticket. I know that that would not please the 56% of the party right now but given the alternative (Trump-Vance administration), it would definitely motivate people to come and vote. And fear is always a strong motivator.
Option#2: Biden steps down and releases his delegates to Kamala Harris and everything is changed over as seamlessly as possible. The only problem is that it might be more problematic than it seems plus there is no guarantee that a Harris candidacy would mean a victory in November. It is a very risky proposition and those in the 56% should be mindful of that.
Option#3: Open convention. This option to be avoided at all costs. It would turn the convention into a shit show a la Chicago 1968 and would only benefit Trump.
So what is going to be the solution? I favor option 1 (keep Biden in) because it is the least risky option for us. Options 2 and 3 are fraught with risks that may potentially cost us in the end. I recognize the concerns of those in the 56% but we must not be ignorant of what those risks are and the fact that we are facing an existential threat to our democracy. Wishing and hoping for someone else is not the solution. And unless someone can show me that Harris would have a better chance at beating Trump than Biden then I'm still for option 1. I know that there is a lot of concern about Biden's age and health and whether he can make it through a second term but I will say this: if Biden is re-elected and something does happen during his term in office (i.e. illness or death), we can be rest assured that VP Kamala Harris will step in to take over. That is the one sure assurance I have.
I am one of the 56% who thinks Biden should drop out. I will vote for Biden because I hate to see Trump gloating over a large victory and mandate. I am now giving my donations to my rep, who is in a swing district and I made a donation to the house members highlighted by Simon. I just can't get excited to go all in for Biden who I believe cannot win.
I have two DEMs who say they are not voting for Biden if he’s the nominee. I don’t know if they’ll make good on that threat, but it’s indicative of how angry ppl are. Not party elites, certainly. Friends I grew up with who vote in every election, including midterms. My wife’s longtime political group will all vote for Biden, but they are furious at him for not stepping down, and it’s hard to overstate how much they want him off the ticket.
Emotions are running high and it’s going to get worse if this continues. I frankly thought this was over and to see it continue this week was a shock to me. I worry that the extremism of the convention and JD Vance is being overshadowed by this.
There are a lot of people who feel the exact opposite as those you refer to. They are just as angry about the attempt to push him off the ticket.
Anyone who cares at all about our democracy needs to get very clear about what is at stake and prepare to vote for whoever that is.
For me, it’s head down and do the work, but it is impossible to quantify the ongoing demoralisation that this is causing.
its demoralizing right now, but we'll survive it and I do think we can come out stronger on the other side. Right now you have 65% of our party, and an even higher number of Indies that want Biden to step down - those are numbers we cannot carry forward and I really don't think his issues are going away. My gut says he will pass this to Kamala and we will be all the stronger for it. The idea of Joe stepping aside as a hugely successful, one-term president was always our strongest play. As I've said many times on here, I was a good soldier for a year and did not speak to my gathering concerns about his candidacy, so I am making up for lost time and understand we all don't agree on this subject. That said, we are very much on the same team.
AND...60% of the country also wants trump to step down. This is a very winnable election and we will increase our chances exponentially, IMO, by going with somebody much younger and more energetic
You make it sound so easy - is it really? What happens to the campaign funds and infrastructure? People just assume Harris can take it over, but is that actually the case?
That's been explained, in detail, by people who know far more than I do. Been written about widely. In short, it is very, very doable and if it goes to Kamala there's very little hiccups at all. Here's an excerpt I think from AP.
"Since their campaign account was registered with the Federal Election Commission in the name of both candidates, Harris could use those funds for her own presidential effort if Biden were to drop out, according to Kenneth Gross, senior political law counsel at Akin Gump and former associate general counsel for the Federal Election Commission."
As I said in response to an earlier post, I think it's a big assumption that a younger candidate will get let alone retain higher polling levels. Once the MSM :"both-siderism" narrative and RW echo machine fire up, whoever may replace Biden will see their polling decline.
For the first two years of Biden's administration Kamala was viciously attacked by the press and Republicans. She had been given the thankless job of border security. It wasn't until Dobbs that she came into her own. I like her, I think she is very capable, but to believe that she could just be put into the Presidential slot on the ticket and all will be well I think is a fantasy.
The thing is we had a primary election. Any Dem who wanted to could have run. They chose not to. I’ve never seen this before, and I don’t understand how it would be fair to either the winning candidate or the voters to push the winner to step down in favor of someone else. I am worried that this action would be more divisive than honoring the results of the election.
And you don’t think people will be angry if you replace Biden? We get this threat from very election. I can guarantee Biden won’t run in 2028. Be patient. Your time will come.
I don't have a time other than now. I want to win. Some people will be pissed, absolutely. I will be pissed if he stays but in the one pissed off group will have to get over it and get on board. I'll be able to do it, if it doesn't go my way
I agree with your perspective. I've been voting since 1982 and never allowed personal affection or dislike sway me toward or from voting for the Democratic candidate. Maybe because I'm African-American and grew up in the South, but it's always been clear to me that Republican victories simply mean that I and other black people will get screwed along with many others.
With that in mind, I've never understood the amount of vitriol Democrats hurl at each other whenever there are sincere disagreements about important party decisions. It's ok to disagree but blasting each other and then by extension refusing to vote for a Democratic candidate because he or she wasn't a favored choice really confuses and upsets me. My confusion is especially amplified when I don't see us bringing the same level of political heat against the GOP when they are a massive threat to us all. It's ok for us to disagree, but let's disagree agreeably and focus our moral and political firepower against the Republicans instead.
Travis. I’m interested to know what your wife’s political action group thinks are the top 3 issues? Maybe we all got spoiled by Obama s charisma. It’s rare. More usual is John Kerry, Al gore, Hillary. I love them all. But not charismatic. I’m voting on policy and I LOVE Biden Harris policy on Economy , rights, action on immigration,court, climate.
I can’t speak for all of them, obviously, and would be a fool to try but they formed for the ‘18 midterms and only really focus on concrete actions to elect Ds. Postcards, canvassing, text banks, etc. Not issue driven. The ones I’ve talked to directly are hoping he steps down bc they don’t view him as having the best chance at victory. I also feel comfortable saying their group took his “transitional presidency” very seriously and feel a little betrayed. There has been a lot of angst about his candidacy in general
Kind of curious what polls the party leaders might be seeing to fear a red wave. I saw Adam Schiff in doomer mode -- it always scares me to hear something like that from a more establishment guy.
there are no polls I am aware showing red wave. I think what we are getting is the professional judgement from people who have run and done the job successfully as a candidate that Biden is going to struggle as both a President and a candidate in the next four months. This is not data, but the judgement of the only people in our system who have done what the President has to to do - be the candidate in a winning campaign - that Biden's performative struggles make it less likely we win. People would be wise not to dismiss these judgements out of hand. No one in the Dem Party has a beef with Biden, or wants anything other than to win.
Thanks. From my own personal experience, my friends and family who believe he should drop out are people who never liked him in the first place and never thought he'd win in 2020 -- they're angry that he isn't a candidate like 2008 Obama. (For the record, they need to find me the 2008 Obama they're hiding). That's why Schiff unnerved me a bit, to be frank.
I hate to say this -- but though I love Adam Schiff -- his decision has to be predicated, at least in part, on the fact that one of his largest donors, unquestionably, is Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix.
Hastings is, right now, one of the most powerful people in LA, and he came out publicly for Biden to step down. Once this happened, all the dominoes began to fall. It's sad, but money of that kind has a lot of influence in politics. And rightfully so -- he can help Schiff quite significantly.
Interesting, and something I've been wondering about. In some instances are some elected dems who say they want Biden to step down responding to major donors? As I've stated many times here, imo we will lose if he does, because, imo Kamala is the only option to replace him, but the misogyny and racism will be difficult [impossible imo] to defeat this toxic year.
I’m not sure that’s true - seems like plenty of people have an axe to grind (not an unintentional use of that phrase). As for Schiff, he’s never ran a competitive general election in his life. It’s easy to be an expert in a +20 Dem House District.
I am genuinely confused by this conflicting set of perspectives. On the one hand, the polling seems mostly static between June 27 and today. On the other, a decent number of Democratic politicos are calling for Biden to step down. I could understand their viewpoint if there were a consistent drop in Biden's polling across multiple pollsters but I'm not seeing that. If these people could demonstrate that information of consistently weakened polling, I'd be much more likely to encourage Biden to step down. Any thoughts about this?
I think Rep. Schiff, like Geo. Clooney, views political viability through lenses shaped by Hollywood optics considerations, which are effective - arguably - for creating show business products, but aren't demonstrably associated with civic engagement concerns.
You can deny this if you want but you're hinting here it's time for Biden to give up. Yesterday you called for VP Harris to be given higher visiblity as a matter or urgency.
You know more about the odds in this than I do. Dude needs to go.
If Biden chooses to throw down his sword in the name of democracy, because he's convinced he can't beat the autocratic Trump, it will burnish his legend. Assuming we win
Maybe. But please consider being more respectful than saying “Dude needs to go.” It’s a slap in the face to those of us who support and believe in him.
Hang in there, Michael. Biden is a great president and this is a really tough nut to crack. We are living with a huge uncertainty -- can he convey the message he needs to convey to win? Studies have shown the humans abhor uncertainty and so it's natural that people want a definitive way to end this uncertainty, getting ride of Biden seems definitive to them. But there are risks either way and we are going to have to live with the uncertainty of whether we can defeat Trump either way. The good news is that our discomfort and fear is really galvanizing our already strong grassroots base. I heard (from Jess Craven's substack) there were more than 40,000 on the call that Simon mentioned. That's UNHEARD of! Take a lot of heart in that and know that despite the debate here, we all want the same thing and we are each other's community.
In a follow-up email from Red Wine & Blue yesterday morning, "hundreds of thousands" of people were on that call, either via Zoom or on Heather Cox Richardson’s Facebook page. Astounding!
I agree Michael. We haven’t read an “I’d rather be us than them” in a while and the overall tone here has me gloomy. I’m reading between the lines as well that Simon might believe Harris is a better candidate for this moment than Biden ( and I don’t exactly disagree, I feel fully torn between Biden or Harris, the only certainty I have is that it must be one or the other). But I don’t think Biden is stepping down.
It’s a horrible place to find ourselves, isn’t it?
Exactly. Both paths have extraordinary risks attached, and we really don’t have enough info to know which path is better. And it’s demoralizing, which is so deadly for a campaign.
I know it’s hard. I hate facts sometimes but need to know what the truth is.. here the truth looks like a large share of dems want Biden out..so we frantically try and reassess..it’s just weird because I’m not seeing that in most conversations and on all social media viewing but who knows🤷♂️.
I was attracted largely to Hopium almost since Simon started it because we weren’t relying on only polls but the other factors that tell you where the election is..lately it seems like I’m mostly hearing about polls..confusing..and as Bernie said the other day “if at this time when Biden is in such a bad place cuz of the debate fallout why aren’t the polls reflecting that panic? As is said here it’s basically a tied race..why is Trump not way up like 8-10 pts if Biden is tanking so much.. the info disparity around this is mind boggling..I’m postponing the phone bank efforts because I don’t even know that the candidate ticket I’m supposed to promote will exist but I’m writing the White House, congressman and others to express my views. These high rollers should not be able to overturn my candidate vote. We are going into a crucial period splintered without unity while the Rs completely unify around a criminal regime which likely can prevail due to our chaotic behavior..I’m sickened🤦♂️
Bryan if you haven't listened to Rick Wilson today it's a good one. He just thinks the Dems are awful at this and I agree with him. I wish they would take him on as an advisor. He's brilliant
Simon, I’ve just been listening to and reading your words at the same time and feeling fired up - also worried that not enough of us will be doing what we need to do - I’ll be spreading your Substack and following your lead‼️thank you ‼️
Thank you as always Simon. I am feeling a bit depressed at the state of affairs, and President Biden’s apparent unwillingness to listen to anyone outside his seemingly very insular circle. Of course I will continue to support and work for our nominee, I just am concerned about our party feeling demoralized.
How do we know who Biden is listening to? If you are quoting The NY Times, well I don’t know. Maybe he is listening to the Congressional causes that support him, black and hispanic. The black voters he doesn’t take for granted. Me?
This is unfortunately what's wrong with most people's engagement in elections. They are in for the excitement and for the entertainment. Trust me, where I come from, many charismatic leaders have failed us. What should be important is whether our leader has the skills and wisdom to get the job done to make your life better. The answer is a resounding YES for Biden, more than any charismatic leader. Obama got played by Republicans during his 8 years. His charisma did not prevent Mitch McConnell from pushing an extra conservative Supreme Court down our throats for generations to come. With Biden, the tables have turned. Mitch got played by Biden.
14 million voters disagree with your comment that "Biden just isn't cutting it here in summer 2024!
i don't agree his decline is serious mental pathology; it is clearly normal aging; he is very old. The pope ain't what he used to be either, but the pope doesn't have to run for re-election. This is where it looks like our man won't be able to do what is necessary against a buzzsaw that's coming for him. And people know it. They are mostly worried about trump's return, which would be an in your face shit show. This is driving people to call for Biden to step aside; it's not that they don't like him. Never has been. And focus groups show that.
Oh, I guess when I filled out an electronic ballot in my state's primary this spring and scanned in the paper copy, I was only dreaming. Silly me.
It's not that cut and dry. My community sees what Biden is doing first before his age (it's actually a joke punchline, we know he is old). Now it's a matter of doing the math. Can a winning coalition see Biden's governance skills first before the optics? I believe so. I actually think it will take more convincing for a new nominee, say Harris.
That's what VP's are for. Get Biden reelected and worry about whether he can make it through four years later, taking it as it comes.
I know people who voted for Bill Clinton twice, W twice, Obama twice, and trump twice. So much for policy.
Makes zero sense.
I’m fully on board with the team we nominate for the ticket. But I agree with you that we’ve yet to hear about the LOGISTICS of a change. I’ve asked in this forum dozens of times, I’ve asked in other forums… no one yet has explained how that will happen. That gives me major pause.
On the other hand, Simon is as smart and as connected as they come (as far as those who have an open dialogue community with us normies), and I want to be able to assume that if this was truly a serious issue he would address it.
I don’t know what to think these days. I just know we need to get on the same page IMMEDIATELY because TRUMP CANNOT WIN.
Obviously, but no one has explained the logistics other than those pointing out the complications and risks. If we are all being asked to have an opinion about this, whether that opinion matters or not, we need all the information. For example, if the two surveys Simon shared had been worded: do you think President Biden should step aside, even though it will put the democratic ticket at risk of not being on the ballot in every state and will cost millions in legal fees to make the change that could have been spent campaigning? Well, you can see the answers to those surveys might be quite different.
Britta,
I understand your concerns.
I think I’m correct that by getting on the same page immediately you mean if Biden is to be our candidate or someone else. Yes. This is information we need but it’s also beyond our control.
I think an important distinction to make is that the Democrat Party is united (right now!) no matter who our candidate is.
One thing we have going for us right now is that Project 2025 is getting a lot more traction in the media and on social networks. People are beginning to understand how specific policies will affect them personally and they don’t like it. This is a ball we can run with!
💪💙
EXACTLY 💙🗳️✨
Hear! Hear!
This was an inappropriate post, and I am taking it down. This is not about any of us. It is about the country, our democracy, our freedoms and our future. Work to bring people together. That is our charge. Thank you all.
Dan this violated every possible understanding of how we talk to each other in this community and you have lost posting privileges for one month. Thank you.
TY Simon! We can do this Team Democracy! Here’s what I’m doing to ensure #BidenHarris2024 win:
✅ Textbanks to register voters every Sat w/ @fieldteam_6
✅Textbanks w/@movement_labs (can drop in anytime).
✅ Canvass/phonebank/textbank with @nvdems.
✅Phone/textbank for Swing States at www.mobilize.us
And wise words from Umair Twitter handle @umairh):
You know this sinking “is everything over” feeling? From democracy to your life? THAT’S fascism. The emotional core of it, which is to terrorize you at an existential level. Stay strong and hang tough. Head in the game. That’s how democracy prevails.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, the abortion issue is primary. We can flip this state.
Swamp Republicans. Millions of unregistered trend Democratic.
FT 6 has texted well over a million in the past several days. Thanks to a donor, texts to Arizona yesterday and today. https://www.fieldteam6.org/
Thursday is Florida day on FT 6 Textarcade. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ft6arcade24
Also FT 6 phone bank. https://www.mobilize.us/ft6/?q=phone%20banks&tag_ids=20038
The 2024 Republican Platform is like excrement squeezed between folded paper. Unfolded, it is now a Rorschach Test onto which duped voters can project what they want.
In reality, the Republican Platform is the disguised Trump’s Project 2025. And it smells precisely like the toxic shite it is.
Fortunately, throughout the nation, millions of good American patriots are rising up to fight to make sure Trump never again returns to the Oval Office, and that he and his cult can never turn his Fascist project into reality.
I think it’s fair that there are still doubts about Joe Biden. He has been a remarkable president, but he’s slowing down because age only goes one way. Unfortunately, his lifelong battle with a stutter or any slight mistep is now greatly amplified in this current political climate.
We need a true decision on our candidate soon and then for us all to rally behind it (whatever the decision)
Whether President Biden stays or goes, I’m voting for and volunteering for the party that has plans for the future. The Democratic Party has real solutions for the economy, the climate, and the health of our democracy.
Hi! I think Biden wants to stay -- he's been pretty clear in that, right? I think that we should just support that. He seems fine to me? This relentless focus is silly. We should rally behind him, and learn from the way that divisions between Bernie and Hillary Democrats weakened us -- and presaged the loss to Trump.
Him wanting to stay, which is what he has to do publicly, even if he’s privately wavering, doesn’t change a reality that a large part of our coalition is not currently behind him.
I agree his recent speeches and interviews are better, but he is still an older man at 81 years old. I think he has good support and a good team around him. I personally think he can win.
That said, a good chunk of people don’t. That fracture isn’t healed by commanding people to get on board. He still has some shaky moments in his speeches and interviews that are amplified by the scrutiny.
I don’t know how to reassure everyone, but his campaign needs to find a way to reassure the majority of our coalition.
Personally, I think that right-wing operatives are behind all of this. That they are fueling it. Seeding these stories to the press. Encouraging the division among us. I just wish we could unify against this terrible common threat.
I second your suggestion!
I respectfully disagree. We’ve all seen Biden’s debate, his interviews with George Stephanopoulos and Lester Holt. Yes, his speech at NATO was powerful as are some other examples but overall Biden doesn’t have the fire, the grit or the strong voice to counter the optics of trump. We believe in sound policy and accomplishments and experience while half the country cares only about image. Strength. Virility.
If, as has been said, victory lies in the margins we need a candidate who can convince them we are the better choice.
It took me awhile to figure out where I stand on this. I tried to thoughtfully listen to different opinions on whether Biden should stay or step down. Then it took more time for me to have the guts to say I think he should step down.
I know it’s messy.
I know it’s unprecedented.
But these are messy, unprecedented times.
We gotta fight fire with fire.
(But yes…media knows how to capitalize on any chink in our armor…so I ignore them.)
Unfortunately, I've come to the conclusion that the media will go after any candidate the Dems put forward. We're not going to have a perfect candidate, no matter who that person is.
The perfect is the enemy of the good. Lets go with good, instead of immeasurable evil.
YES! They will go after any candidate and so will Russian bots. You think the MSM all of a sudden going to be nice to Kamala? I don’t think so. And how many of YOU who think Biden can not cut it would stay home? Any of you? Any of the 56% of Dems Simon says want Biden to step down? And pollsters, call me so I can tell you what I think!!
How about he steps down to vice president and continues to run the country, which he has done so well, and then lets Kamala free to get going to shake these Maga creeps until their self interested traitorous teeth rattle? Or do you think America is not ready to see a woman do that? It is so hard to see a clear path. But no matter what I’m returning to the land of my birth this summer to help any way I can with the Democratic ticket. Because Trump and that other ‘childless cat lady’ hating guy, anyone who is not a white well to do straight man is not really worthy or human - project 2024 - its just unthinkable the damage that could be done. More action... less thinking for me. Work, give - Stick with the blue wave plan. 🏴🇺🇸
For who praytell?
How about Putin and his minions?
I'm very sad to say I don't think our president is up to providing reassurance. I would like nothing more, nothing at all in this world at this time, than to confidently say I think Joe can do it. Not to say I don't think he can President. I think in many ways he is, and has been, an ideal president - wise, experienced, battle-hardened, compassionate, in touch with the lived experience of regular Americans. But he just cannot be a quick-witted, lively, spontaneous talker. Which, I think, is what people want to see.
So, if Joe stays, there's got to be a work-around. What can replace the candidate himself, enlarge the way his presidency is seen and judged? I don't know. But I think this is the way to look at the issue of reassurance, rather than hope Joe changes into a better performer.
How did you feel about him 6 months ago? Kamala is doing great and so is Whitmer and Newsome. But the MSM doesn’t quote them just George Clooney.
Last I heard, both Whitmer and Newsom were supporting Biden. Unless someone else knows different.
Yes! Biden has stated his in and we need to get behind him and stop worrying about something that may or may not happen.
We must unite behind him.
Wanting to stay in a job for which you don’t exhibit fitness isn’t the benchmark. Woodrow Wilson wanted to run for a third term.
President Biden has a lifetime of service and a strong record over the past four years. We are fortunate that he selected a strong VP. It’d be great if he now ceded the obvious: he’s aging, it won’t “improve,” and the country would be better served by his turning over the keys to the Vice President.
He is doing the job right now. If you are paying attention which the press is not. Watch last week’s Brooks and Capehart and listen to Jonathan Capehart. He is my North Star on this.
The implication that I'm not "paying attention" is insulting. I've voted in every primary and general election since 2001, when I turned 18. Incidentally, that means that President Biden had been involved in electoral politics for decades before I was eligible to vote. Since I voted very enthusiastically for a ticket that included President Biden in 2008, 2012, and 2020, I think I'm qualified to judge whether the candidate exhibits the same level of fitness that he did on each of those three occasions. He clearly does not.
To be clear, I don't think he's any worse at extemporizing than Donald Trump. I think he gets lost in his train of thought just as often as Donald Trump. I agree that both men are held to different standards and that the press treatment of President Biden is unfair. But I don't need to "pay attention" to Jonathan Capehart or the repugnant David Brooks to know that my eyes do not deceive me and that Vice President Harris is a far more energetic and vigorous person than President Biden.
Like, sure, you can parse most of the sentences that NBC released of him talking to Lester Holt. And sure, lots of people might misspeak and say that they were proposing capping rent hikes at $55 (before losing their train of thought under the bright lights). But I think it's a little weird that we're clapping so enthusiastically for every three foot putt the guy taps in when we spent the previous term objecting to the cult of personality erected around the former president.
I keep trying to find the comment I made that you are responding to, and what implication I made about you not paying attention. I don’t know what you are referring to. I was not very enthusiastic about Biden in 2020 and I am now.
Let's not assume he lost his train of thought. That might actually be a coping strategy to deal with his stutter. One common coping strategy is to avoid words that tend to trip you up, and instead reformulate what you want to say in a different way.
I was recommending that anyone on this comment group watch Jonathan Capehart on PBS last week. I think he is the best. And he responds to David Brooks very well who I also don’t care for. If you took my suggestion personally as an insult, I think you missed my intention.
I support Biden Because Biden has been the most successful president since FDR who also wasn’t the most energetic. But no stutter I will admit that.
Far be it from me to squash discussion. BUT how much longer? During the primary we talked about his age—he won. For two weeks after the debate we talked about his performance—he is still standing. Now we’ve seen the naked evil of the MAGA take-over of the GOP—we have a good, decent candidate to support and he has said he’s all in. When does the discussion end so we can focus ALL of our energy, not into talk, but rather into action. No offense but I’m not really seeing new arguments. I feel like folks are repeating the same points and somehow expecting a different response. I’m an organizer. In my experience, stuff like this sucks the energy and enthusiasm out of campaigning. I feel like this can’t help but split our focus. Biden has been so much better than I expected. He has a sound team around him to help him govern. He has Kamala Harris to have his back. I want every ounce of my energy aimed at winning in November.
I agree with all of your points. And arguing in these forums isn't going to make a bit of difference, it's Biden, his family and Dem leaders who will decide, so why are we continuing to waste precious energy on this? I'll support WHOEVER is at the top of the Dem ticket! We MUST defeat this modern day Hitler and his MAGA mini-mes by staying hopeful and working like hell---just as Simon tells us, over and over.
I agree with you 100%!
I’m with you, Lillian.
I wish Simon wouldn't have opened up the floodgates in his last few posts. I'm not sure what happened to this site, but it's unrecognizable to me from 6 wks ago.
And Bernie just endorsed Joe.
Basically his stutter is a disability that is being used to criticize him.
It understandably got lost in the sauce of the absolute shit show of the shooting and the RNC, but HCR mentioned yesterday that the White House doc had released the findings of Pres. Biden's February physical, which included a complete neurological exam. The only issue was peripheral neuropathy, which can affect his walking.
💯 Agree Ben.
Inviting all fellow Hopium members to a virtual fundraiser for the Wisconsin Democrats, led by Ben Wikler. The in-person fundraiser will be at my home in Seattle on Tuesday, July 23rd, and will feature Dr. Lew Friedland, who is the expert on Wisconsin politics. I’ve traveled since 2018 to Wisconsin for get out the vote activities with the WisDems and they are some of the best!!
Here’s the zoom link for 7:30 pm PST on 7/23/24: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/85087492877?pwd=g2sC8maTTDOhyqAZOxmKJJqCjztvn1.1&from=addon
On FT6 BYOP can send free texts for Tammy Baldwin. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
8/29/24 3p PT is Wisconsin day on FT 6 Textarcade.
AERIAL VIEW
Wisconsin is a Triple Word Score State! Democrats we register now can take back the House, and hold the Senate & White House! In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes – a razor-thin victory.
To save our Senate majority, we must re-elect Tammy Baldwin (D)!
To regain our House majority, we need to beat insurrectionist Derrick Van Orden (R) in WI-03!
And we need to make sure Wisconsin again goes blue for Biden/Harris!
We need to register WI Democrats – especially to vote by mail. This is a job for Field Team 6!
DEMOCRATS…
...are the only major party fighting Trumpism and the extremist MAGA Republicans.
...and the only party fighting for abortion rights, civil rights, immigrant rights, and LGBTQ+ rights.
...are fighting for access to health care, affordable college, and climate rescue.
REPUBLICANS...
...are waging a national war on voting rights.
...are fighting to eliminate access to healthcare.
...support Trump’s racist, sexist, anti-democracy agenda.
IMPORTANT NOTES
IMPORTANT: Same day registration is available at your polling place on Election Day if deadlines (below) are missed. Remember to bring ID or another proof of residence document.
Registration deadlines for online and by mail (postmarked) for the General Presidential Election on November 5, 2024 is October 16, 2024 (20 days prior to the election).
You can register in person at the clerk’s office through November 1, 2024.
Absentee ballot application deadline for the General Presidential Election is tbd.
In Wisconsin, you can pre-register to vote at 17 years old if you will be 18 by Election Day.
If you need help getting an ID, contact VoteRiders.org or call/text 1-844-338-8743.
Mail ballots should be mailed back at least a week prior to the election; or dropped off at an Early Voting site, or at ANY polling location on Election Day (no ID or waiting in line required). Ballots not received by 7pm on Election Day will not count.
Hooray, Daniel, for all your FieldTeam6 work and thanks for highlighting the special actions in blue wall Wisconsin!!
Simon - Please invite and/or talk to Prof Allan Lichtman. He uses the Keys to the White House to predict winners. His analysis is that either Biden stays in or he has to drop both the presidency (Harris would be acting pres) and give his delegates to Harris. An open convention would lead to our defeat!
Michael and David Salzillo here. We second and third that.
I see his name thrown around a lot. I appreciate his framework as a way to think about the election, but he isn’t some mystic.
He’s called 5 if the last 6 presidential elections correctly. The odds of doing that given the binary choice in our country is around 20% assuming each team had an equal chance to win. Since some of these elections were much less close than others (Bush v Kerry, Obama v Romney) the odds of doing that only go up.
I think he called all 6 correctly; he just didn't account for the Supreme Court to hand over the presidency to Bush Jr.
I’m not going to get into Florida, but all the research on it I’ve seen is that a recount very likely still goes to Bush.
I don’t want to be glib, but it’s our less batshit version of stop the steal.
That's not clear at all. There's plenty of research showing Gore won, by a tiny bit,but it again came down to how things were counted. Other scenarios gave it to shrub.
The consortium didn't release the final count until,, of all days, 9/11, 2001.
Ben, I believe you also have to consider the major purge of people from Florida’s voter roll just before the election – a purge of Democratic-leaning voters that happened on Governor Jeb Bush’s watch.
Everyone named Foster was purged. Black white young old. I know. It’s my name. And you have to consider the butterfly ballot where tons of people voted for gore but marked it wrong.
Wow! Thanks for sharing. I did not know that about Foster. Mary, did you live in Florida at the time?
Bush v Kerry was close - it was a difference of 70,000 votes in Ohio.
Who certifies the election in the scenario where Harris is the acting president? That is my concern.
Congress does. They updated the Electoral Count Act in 2022 in a bipartisan vote and clarified the Vice President (or whichever presiding officer) has a purely ceremonial role to play.
In 1968, VP Humphrey lost and didn’t preside over the count since he was attending a state funeral. I believe the tradition then is that the Senate President Pro Tem presides but I’d have to double check.
They also made it much harder to contest a slate of electors. The VP has never been able to do that, but all you needed was 1 senator and 1 representative. Now you need 1/5 of each house to contest it, making what happens in 2021 much less likely.
Yes, Congress does. And we can all trust a Republican-controlled House led by Speaker Mike Johnson.
/s
Which is why we have to win the House. The new House is seated several days before the counting of the electoral ballots. So hopefully, Hakeem Jefferies will be making the call.
Absolutely right! So much hangs in the balance.
Yes Simon, many of us who follow the professor would love to know how you feel about his 13 keys to the the White House , his near perfect record of predicting elections , and the importance of the incumbency and contest keys.
Fwiw Wajahat Ali had him on his stack (The Left Hook) today -on the Chai Talk vidpod. It was really good.
It can't be easy framing the Biden vs. no-Biden in a constructive way, but you did. At least we can all agree that keeping trump et al out of the White House has to be the priority, not only for the U.S. but for the world, as well.
Hi Simon,
JD Vance terrifies me, so does his wife. The 2024 team of maga candidates scares me to death.
This household writes GOTV postcards and letters the clock around.
Action is the antidote for anxiety.
Writing letters and postcards is calming, also being together, in solidarity, with fellow grassroots Democrats in Zoom meetings is comforting.
Here is what my mom, who does not speak English, asked me to write to Joe:
"President Biden, some people are panicking after the debate not because they don't like you, or they won't vote for you. It's because of the powerful fear of losing to Trump and the consequences it will bring to their lives, especially immigrants like us.
I know you are compassionate man. You know how to speak to people in pain. Use that! Make them feel that you understand those fears, and you would not jeopardize their lives for your ego, if you know you couldn't beat Trump. Avoid railroading or dismissing these dissents. I believe the fact that there is so much fear of losing to Trump, there is no way he can win if we are in this together
Thank you."
Michael and David Salzillo here. We second and third that.
My personal take on this is "ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES." People often engage in elections as if they are some form of entertainment, like a sport or beauty pageant. NO. For many people, it can be a matter of life and death: whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger, whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness, or whether you can seek due process for asylum because your life is at risk in your home country. All these issues are determined by decisions made by ELECTED POLITICIANS. So no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking MAN to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you.
Simon, the 56% of dems who think Biden should step down certainly aren’t going to vote for anyone else are they? It seems like everyone having this discussion about Biden staying or going want the same outcome: for Trump to lose, and they’d vote blue no matter what who. I certainly hope so.
We cannot go into the general with a large chuck of our party unhappy with the candidate and expect to win. We need everyone on board, 100% to be able to win and we just are not there right now. It's margin of effort not just margin of error.
What concrete assurances would you need to see? I’m just not sure he’ll be able to assuage people’s anxiety about his age short of aging backwards and that’s not going to happen. He says he’s not going anywhere and it sounds like maybe you think he needs to. I hate that we are in this position. So many people’s rights are on the line.
Jamie, I am one of those 56%. I am also one of those who was loudly calling BS when someone would say to me that President Biden was not up to it before the debate. But what we saw at the debate and the long wait before he did a second interview really cemented something deep in people.
What is it going to take? It will take him reaching people on a deep level. We are talking real feel it in our bones level and something with virality to it. A feisty defensive interview is not that. Winning a contested convention might do it, maybe a video of him deeply consoling someone going through loss might as well.
The reason it is such an issue is because people felt what they were worried about deep in their bones, and the response so far has looked like the political version of "Naw-uh" or surface level artifice of strength. It needs to be deep and meaningful to people. I needs to be something people want to talk about. It needs to be real and we need to see it from him live.
I felt like his Detroit rally hit those marks but maybe not.
I have not seen more than a few seconds of it but I will watch it. But that kind of goes to the virality of what it would take. It has to move on its own and people have to want to talk about it and see it.
Simply put if a work from home Democrat who can basically watch or listen to this stuff all day can miss it it probably doesn't count.
So basically there’s nothing Biden can do to assuage you - he needs to luck into a viral moment? That’s a bit of an impossible task.
It’s real comforting to know that a bunch of nervous middle and retirement aged white guys are putting the country closer to fascism because they want to be assured Joe Biden is strong or tough or whatever it is you guys “need to see.”
It’s like the information from the speech pathologists and the great write-up Richard Hubbell did about confirmation bias and the faulty thinking of “seeing with your own eyes” was all just a waste of time for a lot of people. Truly disappointing and disheartening.
He was terrific!
I just don’t see the time to get the country (or the swing states) on board with Harris and isn’t she the only viable replacement for Biden? Why isn’t it enough for Harris to be the VP and ready to go should Biden need to step down before the end of his next term? Seems to me there needs to be more runway for the first woman elected. I will vote for her but will PA MI WI NC or GA?
There are no easy paths forward right now. Why we just have to keep our heads down and keep working.
I agree with this! There is not time. We have to just stick with the candidate we have. He's imperfect, but he's what we have -- and we can beat Trump, and then think about the transition to Harris, afterward.
I do not understand the "not enough time" argument. It would be extraordinarily news worthy. The party would have to do very little to inform people. There would be both media buzz and general interest in Harris as the nominee, where she stood with Biden's policies and where she stood apart. That is out a head of the news cycle of her picking a VP.
Basically everything could port over, it is not like they would have to close a bunch of filed offices. As an established party it is not like she would have the hurdle of half a million signatures in every state. The only thing I can realistically think is there might be a run on yard signs, and talk about good problems to have.
The majority of our coalition is is going to vote for the nominee and the rest are basically shouting for a different option. It seems like they come with a built in permission structure. I recognize there are those who would be somewhat turned off by Harris but how many will be very turned off by Trumps contemptuous racist attacks on her. I think many more.
But if Biden were to resign, making Harris the president, who would be the new VP? If it comes down to the current house to confirm a new VP, lots of luck regarding getting the Repubs to even bring it to a vote. And if a new VP were not named, who would perform the ceremony of counting the electoral votes in January 2025? Not to mention that Mike Johnson would be next in line for the presidency, a sure-fire temptation for some MAGA nut to try to eliminate her.
I have not heard anyone ask President Biden to resign as president, nor do I expect he would do so. Everyone has been calling on him to step aside from the nomination.
But if that situation were to occur, I would welcome the house denying the President Harris a VP. That would be politically toxic, their front line members would hate it. I do not think he could Mitch McConnell it and not hold a vote. I could not think of a better real life example of political obstruction for voters to see right before an election.
Again, can anyone say with certainty that VP Harris could just take over the campaign funds and infrastructure? This isn’t fantasy football - would be nice if an actual federal elections law lawyer weighed in.
I think there are two risks that are being overlooked with this proposal. First, it would likely feed the long standing "Dems in Disarray" narrative that the MSM and RW propaganda machine push.
Second, assuming that everyone who is a Democratic or Democratic-leaning voter would automatically and enthusiastically align with Harris is a big question mark. I'm not 100% confident in that expectation, especially when it comes to independents. You can also guarantee the racist and misogynistic attacks will come furiously at her and will likely lower her current approval ratings.
But their unhappiness -- where does it come from? Is it real? It is because he's old? I guess I don't understand their unhappiness. That's why I react against it. Or, rather, I believe it's too late. It's important to be pragmatic about this. In politics, there is often no perfect choice. Obama was the master of this. The art of the compromise.
The media is pushing this narrative and that contributes to the unhappiness of those people. I say turn the darn media off and move forward united.
The media as well as those posing as fellow Democrats in order to keep the age / fitness controversy alive.
Where I’m stuck is what can Biden do to reassure voters at this point? Is there anything?
He’s had numerous events (interviews, speeches, rallies) that he’s performed better. As we’ve seen, they haven’t shifted people’s opinions.
He can’t release a detailed health report because he’s 81. No 81 year old doesn’t have some sort of health issue and the Republicans clearly aren’t going to release real medical information on Trump. So he’s just be gifting ammunition to use against him.
I’m a bit stumped on what path he can take forward other than just running out the clock (which would be unsatisfactory to his doubters).
I think many never wear too excited about him. I wasn’t and many weren’t in 2020. And during a pandemic we came out to vote, just saying,
Hi Simon! As always love your articles. I've sitting in my home in the battleground state of Nevada musing over what you and others have been saying. I see only 3 options for us:
Option#1: Stay with the Biden-Harris ticket. I know that that would not please the 56% of the party right now but given the alternative (Trump-Vance administration), it would definitely motivate people to come and vote. And fear is always a strong motivator.
Option#2: Biden steps down and releases his delegates to Kamala Harris and everything is changed over as seamlessly as possible. The only problem is that it might be more problematic than it seems plus there is no guarantee that a Harris candidacy would mean a victory in November. It is a very risky proposition and those in the 56% should be mindful of that.
Option#3: Open convention. This option to be avoided at all costs. It would turn the convention into a shit show a la Chicago 1968 and would only benefit Trump.
So what is going to be the solution? I favor option 1 (keep Biden in) because it is the least risky option for us. Options 2 and 3 are fraught with risks that may potentially cost us in the end. I recognize the concerns of those in the 56% but we must not be ignorant of what those risks are and the fact that we are facing an existential threat to our democracy. Wishing and hoping for someone else is not the solution. And unless someone can show me that Harris would have a better chance at beating Trump than Biden then I'm still for option 1. I know that there is a lot of concern about Biden's age and health and whether he can make it through a second term but I will say this: if Biden is re-elected and something does happen during his term in office (i.e. illness or death), we can be rest assured that VP Kamala Harris will step in to take over. That is the one sure assurance I have.
I’m not sure what the solution looks like that will bring us together…..I hope there is one.
I am wondering if foreign interference helped create this rift to be honest.
I am one of the 56% who thinks Biden should drop out. I will vote for Biden because I hate to see Trump gloating over a large victory and mandate. I am now giving my donations to my rep, who is in a swing district and I made a donation to the house members highlighted by Simon. I just can't get excited to go all in for Biden who I believe cannot win.
I get that. I may be as well. Still giving money to the Biden/Harris campaign though bc I want whomever is on the ticket to win.
I have two DEMs who say they are not voting for Biden if he’s the nominee. I don’t know if they’ll make good on that threat, but it’s indicative of how angry ppl are. Not party elites, certainly. Friends I grew up with who vote in every election, including midterms. My wife’s longtime political group will all vote for Biden, but they are furious at him for not stepping down, and it’s hard to overstate how much they want him off the ticket.
Thank you for your comment.
Emotions are running high and it’s going to get worse if this continues. I frankly thought this was over and to see it continue this week was a shock to me. I worry that the extremism of the convention and JD Vance is being overshadowed by this.
There are a lot of people who feel the exact opposite as those you refer to. They are just as angry about the attempt to push him off the ticket.
Anyone who cares at all about our democracy needs to get very clear about what is at stake and prepare to vote for whoever that is.
For me, it’s head down and do the work, but it is impossible to quantify the ongoing demoralisation that this is causing.
its demoralizing right now, but we'll survive it and I do think we can come out stronger on the other side. Right now you have 65% of our party, and an even higher number of Indies that want Biden to step down - those are numbers we cannot carry forward and I really don't think his issues are going away. My gut says he will pass this to Kamala and we will be all the stronger for it. The idea of Joe stepping aside as a hugely successful, one-term president was always our strongest play. As I've said many times on here, I was a good soldier for a year and did not speak to my gathering concerns about his candidacy, so I am making up for lost time and understand we all don't agree on this subject. That said, we are very much on the same team.
AND...60% of the country also wants trump to step down. This is a very winnable election and we will increase our chances exponentially, IMO, by going with somebody much younger and more energetic
You make it sound so easy - is it really? What happens to the campaign funds and infrastructure? People just assume Harris can take it over, but is that actually the case?
That's been explained, in detail, by people who know far more than I do. Been written about widely. In short, it is very, very doable and if it goes to Kamala there's very little hiccups at all. Here's an excerpt I think from AP.
"Since their campaign account was registered with the Federal Election Commission in the name of both candidates, Harris could use those funds for her own presidential effort if Biden were to drop out, according to Kenneth Gross, senior political law counsel at Akin Gump and former associate general counsel for the Federal Election Commission."
Okay - well then that cements it - if it isn’t going to be Joe than it has to be Kamala
As I said in response to an earlier post, I think it's a big assumption that a younger candidate will get let alone retain higher polling levels. Once the MSM :"both-siderism" narrative and RW echo machine fire up, whoever may replace Biden will see their polling decline.
For the first two years of Biden's administration Kamala was viciously attacked by the press and Republicans. She had been given the thankless job of border security. It wasn't until Dobbs that she came into her own. I like her, I think she is very capable, but to believe that she could just be put into the Presidential slot on the ticket and all will be well I think is a fantasy.
The thing is we had a primary election. Any Dem who wanted to could have run. They chose not to. I’ve never seen this before, and I don’t understand how it would be fair to either the winning candidate or the voters to push the winner to step down in favor of someone else. I am worried that this action would be more divisive than honoring the results of the election.
It’s just beyond me how a democrat could vote for anyone other than who is on the ticket in this election. Are they ok with Trump being elected?
They say they're not voting for anybody. Maybe they get their arms twisted in the end, but twisting the arms of high propensity DEMs is not ideal
And you don’t think people will be angry if you replace Biden? We get this threat from very election. I can guarantee Biden won’t run in 2028. Be patient. Your time will come.
I don't have a time other than now. I want to win. Some people will be pissed, absolutely. I will be pissed if he stays but in the one pissed off group will have to get over it and get on board. I'll be able to do it, if it doesn't go my way
I agree with your perspective. I've been voting since 1982 and never allowed personal affection or dislike sway me toward or from voting for the Democratic candidate. Maybe because I'm African-American and grew up in the South, but it's always been clear to me that Republican victories simply mean that I and other black people will get screwed along with many others.
With that in mind, I've never understood the amount of vitriol Democrats hurl at each other whenever there are sincere disagreements about important party decisions. It's ok to disagree but blasting each other and then by extension refusing to vote for a Democratic candidate because he or she wasn't a favored choice really confuses and upsets me. My confusion is especially amplified when I don't see us bringing the same level of political heat against the GOP when they are a massive threat to us all. It's ok for us to disagree, but let's disagree agreeably and focus our moral and political firepower against the Republicans instead.
I am removing this post because it is just full of all sorts of unsubstantiated wild rants, and has no place here. I am sorry.
Amen!
Travis. I’m interested to know what your wife’s political action group thinks are the top 3 issues? Maybe we all got spoiled by Obama s charisma. It’s rare. More usual is John Kerry, Al gore, Hillary. I love them all. But not charismatic. I’m voting on policy and I LOVE Biden Harris policy on Economy , rights, action on immigration,court, climate.
I can’t speak for all of them, obviously, and would be a fool to try but they formed for the ‘18 midterms and only really focus on concrete actions to elect Ds. Postcards, canvassing, text banks, etc. Not issue driven. The ones I’ve talked to directly are hoping he steps down bc they don’t view him as having the best chance at victory. I also feel comfortable saying their group took his “transitional presidency” very seriously and feel a little betrayed. There has been a lot of angst about his candidacy in general
Kind of curious what polls the party leaders might be seeing to fear a red wave. I saw Adam Schiff in doomer mode -- it always scares me to hear something like that from a more establishment guy.
there are no polls I am aware showing red wave. I think what we are getting is the professional judgement from people who have run and done the job successfully as a candidate that Biden is going to struggle as both a President and a candidate in the next four months. This is not data, but the judgement of the only people in our system who have done what the President has to to do - be the candidate in a winning campaign - that Biden's performative struggles make it less likely we win. People would be wise not to dismiss these judgements out of hand. No one in the Dem Party has a beef with Biden, or wants anything other than to win.
Thanks. From my own personal experience, my friends and family who believe he should drop out are people who never liked him in the first place and never thought he'd win in 2020 -- they're angry that he isn't a candidate like 2008 Obama. (For the record, they need to find me the 2008 Obama they're hiding). That's why Schiff unnerved me a bit, to be frank.
I hate to say this -- but though I love Adam Schiff -- his decision has to be predicated, at least in part, on the fact that one of his largest donors, unquestionably, is Reed Hastings, the founder of Netflix.
Hastings is, right now, one of the most powerful people in LA, and he came out publicly for Biden to step down. Once this happened, all the dominoes began to fall. It's sad, but money of that kind has a lot of influence in politics. And rightfully so -- he can help Schiff quite significantly.
Now I do wish I had supported his opponent in the primary.
Interesting, and something I've been wondering about. In some instances are some elected dems who say they want Biden to step down responding to major donors? As I've stated many times here, imo we will lose if he does, because, imo Kamala is the only option to replace him, but the misogyny and racism will be difficult [impossible imo] to defeat this toxic year.
I’m not sure that’s true - seems like plenty of people have an axe to grind (not an unintentional use of that phrase). As for Schiff, he’s never ran a competitive general election in his life. It’s easy to be an expert in a +20 Dem House District.
I am genuinely confused by this conflicting set of perspectives. On the one hand, the polling seems mostly static between June 27 and today. On the other, a decent number of Democratic politicos are calling for Biden to step down. I could understand their viewpoint if there were a consistent drop in Biden's polling across multiple pollsters but I'm not seeing that. If these people could demonstrate that information of consistently weakened polling, I'd be much more likely to encourage Biden to step down. Any thoughts about this?
I think Rep. Schiff, like Geo. Clooney, views political viability through lenses shaped by Hollywood optics considerations, which are effective - arguably - for creating show business products, but aren't demonstrably associated with civic engagement concerns.
Thank you.
I appreciate the reality check and will bear that error in mind in the future.
You can deny this if you want but you're hinting here it's time for Biden to give up. Yesterday you called for VP Harris to be given higher visiblity as a matter or urgency.
You know more about the odds in this than I do. Dude needs to go.
Please be more respectful of our President, which Simon also requested in this post.
If Biden chooses to throw down his sword in the name of democracy, because he's convinced he can't beat the autocratic Trump, it will burnish his legend. Assuming we win
Maybe. But please consider being more respectful than saying “Dude needs to go.” It’s a slap in the face to those of us who support and believe in him.
This is getting very depressing on a site that was so pro Biden. Hard for me to read this
Hang in there, Michael. Biden is a great president and this is a really tough nut to crack. We are living with a huge uncertainty -- can he convey the message he needs to convey to win? Studies have shown the humans abhor uncertainty and so it's natural that people want a definitive way to end this uncertainty, getting ride of Biden seems definitive to them. But there are risks either way and we are going to have to live with the uncertainty of whether we can defeat Trump either way. The good news is that our discomfort and fear is really galvanizing our already strong grassroots base. I heard (from Jess Craven's substack) there were more than 40,000 on the call that Simon mentioned. That's UNHEARD of! Take a lot of heart in that and know that despite the debate here, we all want the same thing and we are each other's community.
Thank you Nancy! Your absolutely right. That really lifts my spirits
I'm so glad to hear that!
Hang in there, Michael. This is a difficult time for all of us, but we can get through it. (See my comment to Nancy above.)
In a follow-up email from Red Wine & Blue yesterday morning, "hundreds of thousands" of people were on that call, either via Zoom or on Heather Cox Richardson’s Facebook page. Astounding!
Wow! Thanks for sharing that!
yes, thanks indeed
I agree Michael. We haven’t read an “I’d rather be us than them” in a while and the overall tone here has me gloomy. I’m reading between the lines as well that Simon might believe Harris is a better candidate for this moment than Biden ( and I don’t exactly disagree, I feel fully torn between Biden or Harris, the only certainty I have is that it must be one or the other). But I don’t think Biden is stepping down.
It’s a horrible place to find ourselves, isn’t it?
The problem is that, as Simon said, there are no easy paths forward.
Exactly. Both paths have extraordinary risks attached, and we really don’t have enough info to know which path is better. And it’s demoralizing, which is so deadly for a campaign.
I know it’s hard. I hate facts sometimes but need to know what the truth is.. here the truth looks like a large share of dems want Biden out..so we frantically try and reassess..it’s just weird because I’m not seeing that in most conversations and on all social media viewing but who knows🤷♂️.
I was attracted largely to Hopium almost since Simon started it because we weren’t relying on only polls but the other factors that tell you where the election is..lately it seems like I’m mostly hearing about polls..confusing..and as Bernie said the other day “if at this time when Biden is in such a bad place cuz of the debate fallout why aren’t the polls reflecting that panic? As is said here it’s basically a tied race..why is Trump not way up like 8-10 pts if Biden is tanking so much.. the info disparity around this is mind boggling..I’m postponing the phone bank efforts because I don’t even know that the candidate ticket I’m supposed to promote will exist but I’m writing the White House, congressman and others to express my views. These high rollers should not be able to overturn my candidate vote. We are going into a crucial period splintered without unity while the Rs completely unify around a criminal regime which likely can prevail due to our chaotic behavior..I’m sickened🤦♂️
Bryan if you haven't listened to Rick Wilson today it's a good one. He just thinks the Dems are awful at this and I agree with him. I wish they would take him on as an advisor. He's brilliant
Simon, I’ve just been listening to and reading your words at the same time and feeling fired up - also worried that not enough of us will be doing what we need to do - I’ll be spreading your Substack and following your lead‼️thank you ‼️
Thank you as always Simon. I am feeling a bit depressed at the state of affairs, and President Biden’s apparent unwillingness to listen to anyone outside his seemingly very insular circle. Of course I will continue to support and work for our nominee, I just am concerned about our party feeling demoralized.
How do we know who Biden is listening to? If you are quoting The NY Times, well I don’t know. Maybe he is listening to the Congressional causes that support him, black and hispanic. The black voters he doesn’t take for granted. Me?