"With 25 days to go before EDay the strategic advantage of progressive coalition embracing early vote continues to play out in 2024. As of yesterday's [note: Wednesday’s] data update, nearly 34% of a projected high turnout environment is in absentee ballot requests (over 2m).
"Reminder, MI is a non-party registration state; any analysis is based upon modeling. Likely Democratic supporters outnumber likely Republicans by over 462k ballot requests; almost 40% of this advantage comes from voters with infrequent vote histories!
"Frequent likely Democratic voters outnumber likely Frequent Republicans by ~285k requests... 45% of all requests are from likely Democratic voters; only 22% from likely Republicans.
"55% of registered, likely Frequent Democratic voters have requested a ballot vs. just 30% for likely Frequent Republicans. Nearly 18% of registered, likely Democrats with sporadic or infrequent vote histories have requested v. just 8% of likely Republicans
"There are another ~650k voters who have requested an absentee ballot we know less about. They account for ~32% of requests; these types of voters broke heavily for Biden & Whitmer in early vote in 2020 & 2022. 45% of these voters w/ frequent vote histories have requested a ballot.
"Doing napkin math from requests, Dems could enter Election Day with more than 1.2-–1.4m votes banked. What this currently means is the progressive/democratic coalition still has a ton of work to do; yet, the lift for Republicans feels much larger to mobilize a set of infrequent voters.
"We'll also know more as additional returns come in and early, in-person voting comes online across the state. Just under 400k voters had cast a ballot based upon yesterday's data update."
[Note: Based on numbers per 9 October. "Yesterday" is referring to wednesday.]
McDonald’s Early Vote for the state shows that women account for a massive 55.7% of those who have voted in Michigan so far. As of this morning, a total of 543,650 votes have been cast in the state – second only to Virginia in the Early Vote
Also encouraging is Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown, which indicates that Democrats have returned 8% of their Mail Ballots, Republicans only 4.2%.
I wanna know the impact of "not suckers or losers," the impact of the Nikki Haley 26.59% MI primary vote, the impact on Ukrainian Americans, Polish Americans, etc.
Good points! I presume the Harris-Walz Campaign is doing a lot of high-intensity targeting of specific demographics, including these. Perhaps Field Team 6 is as well?
I wanna know the impact of President Obama’s campaigning for Harris. I do hope he’ll intensify turnout in the swing states, especially in key cities including Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Jacksonville and Atlanta.
I am active with vets groups, via Fred Wellman, who has the Vote vets bus. They were in Pittsburgh yesterday. IMHO the Obama visit feeds into a disinformation campaign about Black men. A wedge issue. Harris also happens to be Black. I am from Pennsyltucky and have insider info. The whole reason for Trump support is racism. Many Blacks from my home town, including the former mayor and the NAACP are Republican. That's because many Blacks came as strikebreakers and at the time, the entire region was Democratic. My town, like many others had white flight, massive unemployment. So the Republican media play it up. https://triblive.com/news/
The most important fact about Obama was his tie to the Rooney family, owners of the Steelers. The Steelers cut through all partisan divides. (Lynn Swan may be the exception.) Obama named Dan Rooney as ambassador to Ireland.
I am also a volunteer in Movement Labs, that tracks it.
All this crap reminds me that for any Black to support Trump, is like the chickens supporting Colonel Sanders. Source J.C. Watts' father. To support my son.....
Most certainly. Did you read the Trib. That paper is only 1 MAGA PR outlet. Moreover I'd fire the MSNBC "reporters" who misrepresent what's happening.
Pennsyltucy, btw, has a relatively small Black population. E.G. Beaver County, 5.96% Black or African American, Butler County 0.9% Black or African American, Westmoreland County 2.3% Black or African American and others are similar.
I've seen many clips on YouTube of registered Republicans saying they're going to vote for Harris too. So the actual vote may be wider than these figures suggest.
Yes- we’ve got a better Senate map in 2026 so we’ll need to mobilize to win some seats and retain our hold on the House (because we ARE winning the House!)
Do More, Worry less. Sending Postcards and recruiting friends to send them too.
How can I get the link for the clip of the Univision dialogue. That's powerful. A candidate demonstrating compassion, substance and closing with that powerful message on real leadership. How can this election even be close? I think we are going to win, if for no other reason that the majority of the country is tired of MAGAs lack of basic humanity.
Remember that moment where Biden hugged the son of the deceased firefighter and shared that moment of grief in a way only Biden could? Kamala Harris went over to that woman after the debate to speak privately to her in a moment of shared loss of a mother in a way only Harris could. It’s getting a lot of play on social media because it’s just so HUMAN.
Simon, your first paragraph - 100% true!!! I'd only add that not only is Trump a horrible human being, he was also a terrible president. As Obama said in his amazing speech yesterday, Trump inherited Obama's great economy (which Obama spent 8 years fixing after the mess the Republicans left him). Then Trump exploded the deficit with tax cuts for billionaires and corporations that didn't pay for themselves. And he closed the pandemic preparedness office 6 months before Covid hit, then completely bungled the response and crashed the economy leading to the worst job losses since the Great Depression. And the spike in inflation we're now recovering from began during Trump's final 6 months in office. Information warriors: our mission is clear. Time for the media to stop giving Trump a pass on the economy - or anything else!
Incidentally, the stock market is once again at an all-time high today under Biden-Harris!
Elissa Slotkin is the real deal in Michigan. Her reply to Mike Rodgers about a womans right to control the autonomy of her own body was fierce! I believe she will be the next Senator for the state of Michigan. I am in Louisville, Ky which is a blue city but live in a red state. Drove across the state yesterday and on the way noticed there are not as many trump signs out as was in 2022! Just an observation. Going to send Elissa a contribution today. When we fight - We WIN!
I've gotten lots of those annoying emails from candidates campaigns after donating and can sympathize. I know they're all robo-texts/emails (pretty much all emails), but stlll...
Anyway, I felt a bit disloyal unsubscribing to them at first, but now I don't feel the same concern. I know I'm supporting them and can donate more later if that seems appropriate. I don't need to read some staffer's hype. That works for me, anyway.
Hey thanks for your message Paula. The emails can get overwhelming. I got so many from Allred so I donated and then unsubscribed to text and emails. If I were you I would just unsubscribe to the texts and send a small donation. She is smart and I believe she will win.
Ms. Ruhle: "You always make us smarter!" Indeed!!! Doing something every day until Nov 6. We are winning...that ends in "ing" which means it is a verb in the "present continuous" tense! And it can only continue if we are "doing." something! Thanks, Coah!
After a 9 hour Amtrak ride, I've been canvassing in West Philly. If you aren't on the ground, you are missing out. This is a GOTV canvas in African American neighborhoods. The welcome from those in West Philly has been so encouraging. People are excited to vote for Kamala - many very informed about down ballot races.
We have the coolest posters with a beautiful picture of Kamala to hand out. It's been a pleasure to hand them out to little girls, teens, women and men to put in their window. It's also been a pleasure to deliver signs.
I will leave Sunday morning (on another 9 hour ride), but this has been - hands down - the best political work I have done - and I've done a lot.. I will take these memories back to Vermont and work from home until Kamala puts her hand on the Bible on January 20th.
So excited to canvas in PA in a couple weeks. Wish I could do more, busy work schedule so ph banking and postcarding and donating. We are all doing what we can and we are mighty!
Martin Luther King Jr. said “If you can’t fly, then run. If you can’t run, then walk. If you can’t walk, then crawl. But by all means, keep moving.” KEEP MOVING my Hopium peeps! Sign up to make phone calls, volunteered to canvas in neighborhood, donate to Kamala through the link Simon posted in his write up. LFG!!!!!!
This month we have doubled our usual recurring donations to Harris Victory Fund as well as Senate and House races. I learned last night there were voter registration tables at the Milwaukee Bucks game against visiting LA Lakers. Fabulous idea, probably from Ben Wikler. Our Evanston Democratic Party now has overnight canvassing trips to three states: WI, MI, and now even PA! Last night Doug Emhoff made a fabulous speech in Athens, GA at the University of Georgia. I found it on YouTube. Obama was really fired up in Pittsburgh as well. The part about changing diapers was funny! I’m having postcard parties all 3 days this weekend with friends who come over to experience Peace and Quiet while their husbands watch football! 25 more days. We can do this.
Yes, this is true. The other leagues mostly rely on individual efforts rather than anything coordinated by teams. Arthur Blank (Falcons' owner) opened Mercedes-Benz stadium to use as a polling location in 2020 after so many others had been closed by the state. About 13 of the Pittsburgh Steelers' players bought pizza and take-out food for poll workers who were counting ballots in PA 18 hrs/day. The NFL has a commercial with different players for voter registration, but you rarely see whole teams jumping all-in. Maybe it's coming, as slightly more progressive owners start taking over. It'll be a long, slow process, though. Lots of good-ole-boy money still in the NFL.
200 more postcards for Wisconsin arrived in the mail that need to be written and sent out by next Thursday. Was a little worried about getting them done, then I read Simon’s post and am
On the clip, Kamala says immigration reform was the very first bill they proposed "hours after taking the oath". Recall that Dems controlled both branches of congress for the first two years. I assume it means that the reason it was not taken up was due to the Senate filibuster rule. In a new congress controlled by Democrats, there will be no Joe Manchin or Kristen Sinema. So the first order of business this time will be to eliminate or reform the filibuster... and then pass the John Lewis voting rights act.
Yesterday, Senator Angus King did a townhall-by-phone hosted by the AARP. I asked King whether he would commit to setting aside the filibuster to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. While he was strongly in favor of this legislation, he was skeptical of completely doing away with the filibuster. He underscored that the Senate ought to go back to a talking filibuster, which in his opinion would spark more compromise.
If you haven’t seen Obama’s speech, find it on You Tube - it is SO good. He mocks and roasts TFG, promotes Kamala’s plans, and in a very powerful and moving segment he calls out complicit Republicans regarding values and character.
Fortunately, we can all multitask—watch and read all Simon’s stuff while postcarding etc. 🤣.
EARLY VOTE MICHIGAN – analysis by Patrick Schuh
"With 25 days to go before EDay the strategic advantage of progressive coalition embracing early vote continues to play out in 2024. As of yesterday's [note: Wednesday’s] data update, nearly 34% of a projected high turnout environment is in absentee ballot requests (over 2m).
"Reminder, MI is a non-party registration state; any analysis is based upon modeling. Likely Democratic supporters outnumber likely Republicans by over 462k ballot requests; almost 40% of this advantage comes from voters with infrequent vote histories!
"Frequent likely Democratic voters outnumber likely Frequent Republicans by ~285k requests... 45% of all requests are from likely Democratic voters; only 22% from likely Republicans.
"55% of registered, likely Frequent Democratic voters have requested a ballot vs. just 30% for likely Frequent Republicans. Nearly 18% of registered, likely Democrats with sporadic or infrequent vote histories have requested v. just 8% of likely Republicans
"There are another ~650k voters who have requested an absentee ballot we know less about. They account for ~32% of requests; these types of voters broke heavily for Biden & Whitmer in early vote in 2020 & 2022. 45% of these voters w/ frequent vote histories have requested a ballot.
"Doing napkin math from requests, Dems could enter Election Day with more than 1.2-–1.4m votes banked. What this currently means is the progressive/democratic coalition still has a ton of work to do; yet, the lift for Republicans feels much larger to mobilize a set of infrequent voters.
"We'll also know more as additional returns come in and early, in-person voting comes online across the state. Just under 400k voters had cast a ballot based upon yesterday's data update."
[Note: Based on numbers per 9 October. "Yesterday" is referring to wednesday.]
https://nitter.poast.org/PatrickSchuh
https://nitter.poast.org/PatrickSchuh/status/1844407841152696469#m
(Nitter is a way of accessing Tweets on X / Xitter.)
McDonald’s Early Vote for the state shows that women account for a massive 55.7% of those who have voted in Michigan so far. As of this morning, a total of 543,650 votes have been cast in the state – second only to Virginia in the Early Vote
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-michigan/
Also encouraging is Tom Bonier’s "Modeled Party" breakdown, which indicates that Democrats have returned 8% of their Mail Ballots, Republicans only 4.2%.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=turnoutPercent&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=MI&view_type=state
I wanna know the impact of "not suckers or losers," the impact of the Nikki Haley 26.59% MI primary vote, the impact on Ukrainian Americans, Polish Americans, etc.
Good points! I presume the Harris-Walz Campaign is doing a lot of high-intensity targeting of specific demographics, including these. Perhaps Field Team 6 is as well?
I wanna know the impact of President Obama’s campaigning for Harris. I do hope he’ll intensify turnout in the swing states, especially in key cities including Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Jacksonville and Atlanta.
I am active with vets groups, via Fred Wellman, who has the Vote vets bus. They were in Pittsburgh yesterday. IMHO the Obama visit feeds into a disinformation campaign about Black men. A wedge issue. Harris also happens to be Black. I am from Pennsyltucky and have insider info. The whole reason for Trump support is racism. Many Blacks from my home town, including the former mayor and the NAACP are Republican. That's because many Blacks came as strikebreakers and at the time, the entire region was Democratic. My town, like many others had white flight, massive unemployment. So the Republican media play it up. https://triblive.com/news/
The most important fact about Obama was his tie to the Rooney family, owners of the Steelers. The Steelers cut through all partisan divides. (Lynn Swan may be the exception.) Obama named Dan Rooney as ambassador to Ireland.
I am also a volunteer in Movement Labs, that tracks it.
All this crap reminds me that for any Black to support Trump, is like the chickens supporting Colonel Sanders. Source J.C. Watts' father. To support my son.....
"IMHO the Obama visit feeds into a disinformation campaign about Black men."
Do I hear you right? Are you saying that Obama is unwittingly amplifying disinformation about Black men??
Most certainly. Did you read the Trib. That paper is only 1 MAGA PR outlet. Moreover I'd fire the MSNBC "reporters" who misrepresent what's happening.
Pennsyltucy, btw, has a relatively small Black population. E.G. Beaver County, 5.96% Black or African American, Butler County 0.9% Black or African American, Westmoreland County 2.3% Black or African American and others are similar.
I've seen many clips on YouTube of registered Republicans saying they're going to vote for Harris too. So the actual vote may be wider than these figures suggest.
🙏🏻
oh my GOD, how can I thank you?
Simon you MUST continue your substack indefinitely so we can all stay united together!! I've got your back!!!! We must remain vigilant
Teamwork makes the DREAM WORK!!
At least through Inauguration Day, when Kamala Harris is sworn in as President!
Yes- we’ve got a better Senate map in 2026 so we’ll need to mobilize to win some seats and retain our hold on the House (because we ARE winning the House!)
Do More, Worry less. Sending Postcards and recruiting friends to send them too.
How can I get the link for the clip of the Univision dialogue. That's powerful. A candidate demonstrating compassion, substance and closing with that powerful message on real leadership. How can this election even be close? I think we are going to win, if for no other reason that the majority of the country is tired of MAGAs lack of basic humanity.
clips are on tiktok uninoticias https://www.tiktok.com/@uninoticias/video/7424296147545558303
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdvHSwQswoI Univision for full interview
That’s more than a good enough reason.
Harris campaign has posted this powerful moment from the Univision Interview
I suggest that we share widely
Vice President Kamala Harris on Health Care Access: "We speak her name."... https://youtu.be/-j7X6mjrJ3M?si=k3QO3oedV02J0rtX via @YouTube
I shared this clip on social media with the caption: "Can you imagine Trump comforting this woman this way?"
Remember that moment where Biden hugged the son of the deceased firefighter and shared that moment of grief in a way only Biden could? Kamala Harris went over to that woman after the debate to speak privately to her in a moment of shared loss of a mother in a way only Harris could. It’s getting a lot of play on social media because it’s just so HUMAN.
I missed that moment. Is there video?
Thank you Simon for making all of us smarter!
Simon, your first paragraph - 100% true!!! I'd only add that not only is Trump a horrible human being, he was also a terrible president. As Obama said in his amazing speech yesterday, Trump inherited Obama's great economy (which Obama spent 8 years fixing after the mess the Republicans left him). Then Trump exploded the deficit with tax cuts for billionaires and corporations that didn't pay for themselves. And he closed the pandemic preparedness office 6 months before Covid hit, then completely bungled the response and crashed the economy leading to the worst job losses since the Great Depression. And the spike in inflation we're now recovering from began during Trump's final 6 months in office. Information warriors: our mission is clear. Time for the media to stop giving Trump a pass on the economy - or anything else!
Incidentally, the stock market is once again at an all-time high today under Biden-Harris!
Thanks Simon. We gave another $100 split 4 ways to Tester, Brown, Harris, and your four new House stretch candidates. Go Blue!
Elissa Slotkin is the real deal in Michigan. Her reply to Mike Rodgers about a womans right to control the autonomy of her own body was fierce! I believe she will be the next Senator for the state of Michigan. I am in Louisville, Ky which is a blue city but live in a red state. Drove across the state yesterday and on the way noticed there are not as many trump signs out as was in 2022! Just an observation. Going to send Elissa a contribution today. When we fight - We WIN!
I DO wish Ms. Slotkin would ease up on the 50 texts a day. I still support her, but I am seriously annoyed.
Hi Paula,
I've gotten lots of those annoying emails from candidates campaigns after donating and can sympathize. I know they're all robo-texts/emails (pretty much all emails), but stlll...
Anyway, I felt a bit disloyal unsubscribing to them at first, but now I don't feel the same concern. I know I'm supporting them and can donate more later if that seems appropriate. I don't need to read some staffer's hype. That works for me, anyway.
Hey thanks for your message Paula. The emails can get overwhelming. I got so many from Allred so I donated and then unsubscribed to text and emails. If I were you I would just unsubscribe to the texts and send a small donation. She is smart and I believe she will win.
Ms. Ruhle: "You always make us smarter!" Indeed!!! Doing something every day until Nov 6. We are winning...that ends in "ing" which means it is a verb in the "present continuous" tense! And it can only continue if we are "doing." something! Thanks, Coah!
After a 9 hour Amtrak ride, I've been canvassing in West Philly. If you aren't on the ground, you are missing out. This is a GOTV canvas in African American neighborhoods. The welcome from those in West Philly has been so encouraging. People are excited to vote for Kamala - many very informed about down ballot races.
We have the coolest posters with a beautiful picture of Kamala to hand out. It's been a pleasure to hand them out to little girls, teens, women and men to put in their window. It's also been a pleasure to deliver signs.
I will leave Sunday morning (on another 9 hour ride), but this has been - hands down - the best political work I have done - and I've done a lot.. I will take these memories back to Vermont and work from home until Kamala puts her hand on the Bible on January 20th.
Thank you Theresa for all your work out there. I’ll say a prayer for you and all the canvassers out there.
Thanks so much for your prayers.
Thank you, Theressa, from an h-less Teresa 😊
How many spellings are out there!!!!
Thank you Theressa, for all your efforts.
It really has been a gift to have time and resources to do this.
Thank you Saint Theressa!
Ah.... if you knew me☺️
So excited to canvas in PA in a couple weeks. Wish I could do more, busy work schedule so ph banking and postcarding and donating. We are all doing what we can and we are mighty!
We ARE mighty!!!
I'm excited for you!
Martin Luther King Jr. said “If you can’t fly, then run. If you can’t run, then walk. If you can’t walk, then crawl. But by all means, keep moving.” KEEP MOVING my Hopium peeps! Sign up to make phone calls, volunteered to canvas in neighborhood, donate to Kamala through the link Simon posted in his write up. LFG!!!!!!
Yes!!!!!
Theressa, thank you! Your dedication is amazing !!! I consider myself in the battle, but you're on the frontline !
Everything we do matters.
Thank you for the work you are doing
All gas no breaks.
This month we have doubled our usual recurring donations to Harris Victory Fund as well as Senate and House races. I learned last night there were voter registration tables at the Milwaukee Bucks game against visiting LA Lakers. Fabulous idea, probably from Ben Wikler. Our Evanston Democratic Party now has overnight canvassing trips to three states: WI, MI, and now even PA! Last night Doug Emhoff made a fabulous speech in Athens, GA at the University of Georgia. I found it on YouTube. Obama was really fired up in Pittsburgh as well. The part about changing diapers was funny! I’m having postcard parties all 3 days this weekend with friends who come over to experience Peace and Quiet while their husbands watch football! 25 more days. We can do this.
NBA has always been the most progressive pro sports league. This does not surprise me at all.
Yes, this is true. The other leagues mostly rely on individual efforts rather than anything coordinated by teams. Arthur Blank (Falcons' owner) opened Mercedes-Benz stadium to use as a polling location in 2020 after so many others had been closed by the state. About 13 of the Pittsburgh Steelers' players bought pizza and take-out food for poll workers who were counting ballots in PA 18 hrs/day. The NFL has a commercial with different players for voter registration, but you rarely see whole teams jumping all-in. Maybe it's coming, as slightly more progressive owners start taking over. It'll be a long, slow process, though. Lots of good-ole-boy money still in the NFL.
200 more postcards for Wisconsin arrived in the mail that need to be written and sent out by next Thursday. Was a little worried about getting them done, then I read Simon’s post and am
like “DAMN RIGHT I’LL GET THEM DONE!”
You're amazing!!!!
On the clip, Kamala says immigration reform was the very first bill they proposed "hours after taking the oath". Recall that Dems controlled both branches of congress for the first two years. I assume it means that the reason it was not taken up was due to the Senate filibuster rule. In a new congress controlled by Democrats, there will be no Joe Manchin or Kristen Sinema. So the first order of business this time will be to eliminate or reform the filibuster... and then pass the John Lewis voting rights act.
Yeah, those two I have words for... some of them four letters....
Yesterday, Senator Angus King did a townhall-by-phone hosted by the AARP. I asked King whether he would commit to setting aside the filibuster to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. While he was strongly in favor of this legislation, he was skeptical of completely doing away with the filibuster. He underscored that the Senate ought to go back to a talking filibuster, which in his opinion would spark more compromise.
They need to get rid of the filibuster - for all legislation. It’s designed to ensure minority rule.
If you haven’t seen Obama’s speech, find it on You Tube - it is SO good. He mocks and roasts TFG, promotes Kamala’s plans, and in a very powerful and moving segment he calls out complicit Republicans regarding values and character.
Link to the full event - along with a fiery Gov Shapiro
https://www.youtube.com/live/9TvL8RjAzRg?si=qWt0_QLRTVSTUCQW
Thanks!
New Article to share - Vice President Kamala Harris on Her Race to the Finish https://www.vogue.com/article/kamala-harris-digital-cover-october-2024-interview
Fantastic post, fantastic videos! Thank you Simon.