Happy Friday all. I start off this morning with a reminder that Donald Trump is a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon. He is a bigot, racist, misogynist and xenophobe. He is unfit and unwell, a Russian-backed extremist who wants to end the global economic system that has made us prosperous, end the Western alliance that has keep us safe and end our democracy that has kept us free.
And we cannot let him win.
We Are Winning The 2024 Election But Have Not Won It Yet - Watch my new, comprehensive video presentation on the election, and enjoy my last two Hopium posts which go deep into this week’s polling and promising early vote data (here, here). The bottom line - the election is close, I would much rather be us than them, and we have to keep our heads down, keep working the early vote and go out and win this thing, together. For when we postcard, canvass, phonebank, text, donate, vote early and be loud and proud, we win!
I also send along a clip of my discussion about the election with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle last night, above. Think you will enjoy it.
The Vice President Campaigns in Arizona, Rocks An Univision Town Hall - Love this short clip of the VP walking on stage last night in Phoenix. Enjoy the “Arizona Votes Early” sign that dominates the shot. Harris-Walz are bringing the joy and working the early vote people!
While in Phoenix the Vice President did a townhall with Univision. Below is one of the moments that has gotten the most attention. It is a must watch.
And note that while what the VP wants is for this woman’s mother to have had an earned path to citizenship and access to potentially life-saving affordable quality health care, Donald Trump has vowed to round up people like her mother, put them in camps and deport them to countries they have not lived in since they were kids.
Former President Obama Fires Up Pittsburgh - It is great to see former President Obama back on the trail. I send along his entire set of remarks from last night. Let’s watch them together this weekend. Many who have watched have said they have seldom seen him so fired up.
Our New Closing Strong Episode With NC AG Josh Stein and Congressman Colin Allred Is Live! - Another thing to put into the cue for the weekend. This is a great episode. My favorite part is our in depth discussion of the impact of Greater MAGA’s rancid efforts to disrupt the recovery process in what is now clearly the worst natural disaster in North Carolina’s history. Enjoy all, lots of meaty and interesting stuff in this episode, and Colin Allred sure is a great candidate!
"This is a great economy. Why can’t we celebrate it?” - In a new must read article, Washington Post columnist dives into issues familiar to Hopium readers:
By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Growth is strong. Unemployment is low. Inflation is back down. More important, many Americans are getting sizable pay raises, and middle-class wealth has surged to record levels. We are living through one of the best economic years of many people’s lifetimes. Yet it’s barely mentioned in popular culture or on the campaign trail.
Polarization in the United States makes it difficult to talk about any truth, even about the economy. Last Friday’s jobs report surpassed all expectations. As soon as it came out, Republicans such as Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida tried calling it fake. In reality, even if the report is later revised down, it will still show an economy that is humming along. And consider the bigger picture: The United States has nearly 7 million more jobs than it did before the pandemic, and the largest share of 25-to-54-year-olds working since 2001. Many experts didn’t think it even possible for the labor market to become this robust again. Some theories considered Americans too addicted to video games or drugs, or simply too lazy to work. The jobs rebound has proved the experts wrong.
The story on inflation is similar. Two years ago, economists were predicting a recession. Many said it was impossible to lower inflation without a downturn and widespread job losses. Yet we are living through this miracle. Report after report shows inflation cooling off. On Thursday, we learned that inflation has cooled to 2.4 percent. It’s so close to the 2 percent target again even Federal Reserve officials aren’t that worried about it anymore. And there is no recession in sight.
In addition to defying expectations, the United States has seen much stronger growth than other advanced nations, and the benefits have gone largely to the working class.
All this good news is talked about openly on Wall Street. Investors believe the soft landing is real. This is why the S&P 500 stock market index is up 20 percent this year. Leaders abroad are also discussing the rapid U.S. rebound — enviously. Both French President Emmanuel Macron and former Italian prime minister Mario Draghi say the European Union needs to be more like the United States economically.
Yet in the domestic political realm, even Democrats are hesitant to discuss the good economy because of the inflation hangover effect. Many Americans are angry that prices remain high for everything from groceries to houses. Politicians don’t want to sound out of touch by saying everything is fine.
But at this point, it’s fair to speak openly about the improvement. Prices are up 21 percent overall since February 2020, but the average wage gain in that time is 24 percent. Wage hikes have exceeded inflation for the past 17 months, and this is helping people get ahead. It also helps that gas prices have fallen appreciably since the spring, and many stores are slashing prices to lure customers back.
It’s important to recognize how much ordinary Americans have recently benefited. Since the pandemic, Americans in the bottom 40 percent of income have experienced the fastest wage growth. What’s more, the biggest surge in wealth since the end of 2019 has gone to the bottom 50 percent. Their wealth nearly doubled, largely because of the big jump in home prices. The American homeownership rate is at its highest level since the foreclosure crisis (excluding the weird data from 2020). Homeownership among Hispanics and Asians is at record highs. These are extraordinary gains.
Her conclusion:
……The economy is excelling on many fronts, much as it did in the late 1990s. And polls show that Americans are beginning to notice. JPMorgan’s chief global strategist, David Kelly, has pointed out that the “misery index” (a combination of the inflation and unemployment rates) has dropped lower than it has been 89 percent of the time in the past half-century. The best metric to watch is consumer spending. Even as Americans tell pollsters they are gloomy, they keep on spending — especially on eating out, visits to amusement parks and pumpkin patches, and tickets to concerts and sports events. This is yet another signal of a healthy economy.
It should be possible to celebrate such good news, regardless of who might make it to the White House.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have led an historically successful Administration. They got us to the other side of COVID as they promised. The nation is thriving. The economy is booming. We’ve made investments that will be creating jobs and opportunities for the American people for decades. The crime rate is down. Flows to the border are down. Drug overdoses are down. The uninsured rate is the lowest in history. Domestic energy production is breaking records.
We are far better off today, and IMHO we should be far more aggressive about making this case in the closing days of this important campaign. Things were better under Trump? BULLSHIT. And we need to say so, loudly, so they can hear it all the way in Moscow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Early Vote Is On Track - We are still running ahead of 2020, which is the goal my friends. Next week I will be diving into all this a bit more. The latest tally from TargetEarly:
Doing More, Worrying Less In The Home Stretch - My one ask today - volunteer for or donate to Harris-Walz to help keep our momentum going in the home stretch! Thank you everyone for what you’ve done for our candidates and state parties. We are already hitting some of our October 31st goals. It’s amazing.
Hard work is good work. Let’s make this a big weekend folks and show our candidates and parties lots of love!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Harris-Walz For President - $1,201,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel
Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:
North Carolina - $752,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $458,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $245,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb.
Winning The House - There are 4 ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:
Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,515,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates
Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $75,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.
Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here.
Winning The House Thursdays - Next Thursday we gather for Tony Vargas (NE-02), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Tony and the blue dot. Watch my wonderful interview with him. Recent polls have Tony ahead and we just have to keep working it!
Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer give to the great NE Dem Party today!
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $458,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Montana/Jon Tester - $122,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $86,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $245,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More
Grow/Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off, and you get access to at least one live 2024 election briefing with me each week in the home stretch.
If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
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