A Very Good Week For Harris-Walz, Winning It In October, Prayers For Florida

Call, Postcard for Sue Altman Thursday at 715pm ET/Welcome New Subscribers!

Happy Wednesday all. As we’ve been discussing we’re now in an unusual Presidential home stretch. For decades three fall Presidential debates focused the nation’s attention on the election, provided voters information about the candidates, and sent the signal to all it was time to vote. Because Donald Trump is so unfit, unwell, extreme and just ugly we are not having October Presidential debates. So the candidates, their campaigns and their supporters are going to have to create some of that intensity and interest in the home stretch. It is necessary for both persuading the persuadables and driving turnout.

That’s why you’re seeing the media blitz from the Harris-Walz campaign this week. 60 Minutes, late night shows, The View, Howard Stern, big podcasts. Tomorrow the VP holds a big rally in Phoenix and Barack Obama heads to Pittsburgh. They are also producing lots of new paid media targeting narrow groups in key states as well as playing off the news to draw interest and buzz. Here is a new video the campaign released last night referencing the news we woke up to yesterday morning - that Trump shipped COVID tests to Putin before they were widely available for Americans.

Friends, the Harris-Walz campaign is having a very good week. This “loud and proud” strategy is working. It has been effective and smart. They are driving the debate now, filling our socials with clips from these various appearances, reaching audiences they need to reach in the home stretch. They are hustling, staying on offense and playing to win. As I wrote yesterday the polls remain encouraging, with us maintaining a modest but steady lead in the popular vote and the Electoral College. This is all happening as many critical states - AZ, CA, MT, OH - turn on early voting, and the early vote really starts to take off.

Adding to the challenge of this new debate-less October was Helene and it’s tragic aftermath, and now Milton. Helene took the VP off the trail, and our country was flooded with rancid levels of dangerous Trumpian dis/misinformation. In MAGA’s dark imagination somehow disrupting the Federal, state and local government’s ability to respond to an extraordinary disaster was opportunistic and savvy. I am not so sure. From The Washington Post:

The Republican Party in the Trump era has overwhelmingly embraced an all’s-fair-in-love-and-war approach to politics. That’s evidenced by the fire hose of misinformation flowing from Donald Trump and his allies late in the 2024 campaign.

It’s one thing to deploy this approach on a candidate’s positions or qualifications; it’s another to do it when it has real on-the-ground costs to people confronting fraught situations — and even tragedy.

Repeatedly in recent weeks, prominent Republican officials in areas dealing with the fallout have indicated that Trump and his MAGA allies are doing the latter.

They’ve pointed to how false claims and conspiracy theories about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, and the response to Hurricane Helene have caused or could cause real damage.

The most serious situation is the hurricane response. Top Republicans have increasingly spoken out in recent days against misinformation that’s aimed at criticizing the federal government’s (read: the Biden-Harris administration’s) response. They have often spoken broadly and not invoked specific people such as Trump. But their comments come as Trump and his allies have lodged a multitude of false claims on the same topic, and they often reference specific claims Trump has promoted and politicized.

The message seems to be: Cut it out.

“The last thing that the victims of Helene need right now is political posturing, finger-pointing, or conspiracy theories that only hurt the response effort,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said in a letter to constituents Sunday.

Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Tillis was asked specifically about Trump’s false claim that the Biden-Harris administration diverted funds from hurricane relief to deal with migrants. Trump said Friday that, because of this, “they don’t have the money” to deal with the hurricane response.

Tillis talked around the specific claim but contradicted Trump by saying that “we have the resources that we need.” He added that federal money spent on migrants is not “affecting the flow of resources to western North Carolina.” His letter to constituents, which started with his plea about misinformation, was released hours later.

Other Republicans pointed to a specific claim about the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) supposedly confiscating supplies and property.

“There’s a lot of misinformation,” Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) said Thursday, citing that claim. He added: “There’s nothing but commitment to serving the people in this state, and those who spread that kind of misinformation, it’s deeply unfortunate that that’s happening.”

Knox County, Tenn., Mayor Glenn Jacobs (R) also referenced the claim in a statement Friday, urging, “Please quit spreading those rumors as they are counterproductive to response efforts.”

These officials didn’t cite Trump by name, but this is a claim Trump has promoted. It really took off in MAGA world thanks to his top ally Elon Musk last week, but Trump has repeatedly pointed to claims that aid is being blocked and even confiscated.

North Carolina state Sen. Kevin Corbin was among the first prominent Republicans in the area to speak out, decrying the “conspiracy theory junk” on social media and calling it “distracting to people trying to do the job.” Corbin cited the purported confiscation and blocking of supplies and the idea that the government can control the weather (which Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene has promoted).

Rep. Chuck Edwards (R), who represents hard-hit western North Carolina, was asked Monday morning on CNBC about the confiscation rumors and called them “totally unsubstantiated.”

Edwards clarified that he was not defending FEMA’s broader response. But he added, “It’s so unfortunate that at a time like this where we need to be pulling together and being truthful and working on real solutions, we’ve got some nefarious folks out there that are trying to make a name for themself or see what they can stir up on social media.”

Nefarious folks like their candidates for President and Vice President and their new Chief Oligarch, Musk that is.

Greater MAGA’s dis/misinformation has gotten so dangerous that even a top and very MAGA comms aide to Governor DeSantis has taken to Twitter to denounce it:

Here’s the dispiriting reality Trump and his allies are waking up to today. Harris continues to lead in national and state polling. Trump has lost his advantage on the economy in most polls (perhaps because his talking about eating cats and dogs and lying about our recovery efforts?). Our candidates are far better liked and much more likable. Their Senate candidates are all underperforming. Democrats have enormous financial, organizational and enthusiasm advantages, and have been winning elections all across the country since Dobbs. The House is likely to flip.

As for their closing message the success of the Biden-Harris Admin has dramatically undermined their central arguments. The economic news continues to be really positive and America is clearly better off today. Crime, border flows, drug overdoses are all down, and domestic energy production is breaking records. Their climate denialism has become even more politically untenable. And their ticket has decided to make their big October play a deranged attempt to disrupt mostly Republican states’ ability to manage some of the most devastating natural disasters in our history - a big play that is now being openly denounced by Rs in these states.

Another ugly reality Rs are waking up to this week is Helene’s devastation may cost Trump and Republicans votes in North Carolina. This is forcing the national and state GOP to embarrassingly back the kind of ease of voting changes that were the basis of Trump’s case for calling the 2020 election stolen and illegitimate. Here’s an excerpt from a Raleigh News and Observer editorial, With GOP votes at risk, NC Republicans are suddenly OK with easing voting rules:

As Hurricane Helene’s devastation complicates voting in Republican-heavy western North Carolina, the GOP is showing an uncharacteristic approach to elections……

The GOP’s softening on voting rules may be out of respect for the right to vote. Certainly it is correct to adjust election rules after the loss of polling places, the displacement of many people and a shortage of poll workers. But the Republicans may also be open to the changes because western North Carolina is their party’s base. Two of the affected counties, Mitchell and Avery, have the first and second highest concentration of Republican voters in the state.

Former President Donald Trump, who carried North Carolina by only 1.3 percent of the vote in 2020, will need to win big in the western counties to carry the state in November. The GOP’s statewide candidates for governor, attorney general and other offices and judicial seats also can’t afford a falloff of votes from rural western counties.

Under changes approved Monday by the State Board of Elections, local election boards in the 13 counties can by a bipartisan majority vote change voting sites and when sites will be open during early voting days. Absentee ballots will be accepted at any county board of elections office — not just the one in the voter’s home county. The deadline for requesting absentee ballots is extended to the day before Election Day, rather than a week before.

As the editorial concludes, in their desperation to not see a huge, election-altering drop off in Western North Carolina, Rs are now unraveling the voting restrictions they put place for the rest of the state and throughout the country:

The other ugly reality the Rs are waking up to is as we demonstrated this week we simply have more tools to create the intensity we need to close strong in this final month. Our candidates are much better liked, can rock it on mainstream media programs and pods with large audiences (60 Minutes, The View, etc) and do not scare small children when they speak. Our financial advantage means we will be putting more ads on the air in these closing weeks. Our organizational advantage means we will be talking to more votes in ways that move them. 80 million hand-written personalized postcards will be hitting voters across the battlegrounds. We don’t have important, recognizable leaders of our party openly campaigning against our candidate, something that is likely to cost them votes and depress their turnout.

Remember, my friends, it has been a central argument here that since Dobbs we’ve seen one election over and over again in all parts of the country - Democrats overperform expectations, Republicans struggle. And if I’m right that this is what is likely to happen in this election too, and we are in the process of closing stronger than them, then we should see this structural advantage show up in the early vote, as we did in 2022. And we are.

While it’s still very early in the early vote we’re currently outperforming our 2020 results nationally and in the Presidential battlegrounds. Here’s this morning’s tally from TargetEarly for the national early vote. We were up 17 pts at this point in 2020. Today we are up 24, a number very similar to NBC News’ poll of the those who say they are going to vote early - (+26).

Here is what the aggregate of the 7 Presidential battleground states looks like so far. +12 at this point in 2020. +33 today.

This early data suggests that those Republicans who have publicly shared their concern about the outsourcing of their field and GOTV efforts to organizations outside the party and campaigns were right to be worried.

What does this all mean? That today we are winning the election but have not won it yet. We need to make every day a good day. We need to keep Voting on Day 1 and voting early. We need to keep doing the work and making donations. Winning this election is an opportunity. Now we have to seize it. And as I’ve been saying, given the lack of these debates, our ticket and Democrats everywhere are more dependent on our work and money to help them keep the intensity up than they have ever been. What I’ve come to realize in recent days is that this work we do, the money we give, matters even more than I had understood. The VP and her team are doing their part, busting their asses, creating energy and intensity and making compelling arguments. Now we must do our part. Every day. No days off. The donations have to keep flowing, the phonebanks have to be filled, our canvasses need to be raucous and oversubscribed. As we did in 2022, we need to blow out the early vote and win this thing in October my friends. We are off to a very good start. Now we need to finish the job, together.

Doing More, Worrying Less In The Home Stretch - My one ask today - support Anderson Clayton the North Carolina Democratic Party. Helene means that their work to turn out our vote got harder, and more expensive. If we can win here - and I think we can - it almost certainly means we win the election. Mark Robinson’s implosion makes victory here for Kamala Harris more likely, but we need to keep working it all!

Harris-Walz For President - $1,186,000 raised, $1.5m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel

Our Presidential Checkmate States - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these two front-line state parties:

• North Carolina - $715,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $448,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $240,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb.

Winning The House - There are 5 ways to support our 15 Winning The House candidates:

• Support All 15 With A Single Donation - $1,497,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates

• Support The 4 New House Candidates In Our Expanded Target List - $73,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More.

• Donate Directly To A Candidate - You can donate to any of our 15 candidates directly here.

• Winning The House Thursdays - This week we gather for Sue Altman (NJ-07), Thursday, at 715pm ET. Register here to postcard or call for Sue. Watch my wonderful interview with her. She is a very impressive candidate!

Keeping The Senate Blue - By popular demand, we are now supporting Senators Tester and Brown in addition to Ruben Gallego. If you want to help defeat Deb Fischer give to the great NE Dem Party today!

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $448,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Montana/Jon Tester - $116,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $80,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $240,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

Grow/Strengthen The Hopium Community - Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. From now until Election Day a paid annual Hopium subscription is 10% off. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can update your payment information or check your renewal status by following these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing and the Hopium flowing!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon