Though you didn't get to join the phonebank, thank you for trying, and know that the number of volunteers being at over-capacity is a GREAT problem for the Harris campaign to have!
(UPDATE, 10:30pm – GA, NV, FL and AZ updated.) Almost 42 million people have already voted. Over 21.1 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while more than 21.3 million people have voted Early In-Person. Georgia has exceeded, and North Carolina is on the cusp of, 50% of its 2020 turnout!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
(UPDATE 10:30pm – Ohio updated.) Other key states, four included because of vital Senate races:
MT 41.2% 252,030
TX 41.5% 4,707,448
VA 32.2% 1,457,884
OH 27.4% 1,637,003<
NE 21.2% 205,324
Additional states with strong Early Vote: SD 55.1%, TN 47.3%,
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
Will you help me understand (English major, here) what the numbers ⬆️ suggest for NC, please? And the reason we in NC get to have an * after the number? Thanks. I know you are super busy. 🧢
*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.
As to your first question, for North Carolina, 2,740,069 votes constitutes 49.4% of the total number of votes cast in NC during the 2020 Presidential Election.
PA is so peculiar this election isn’t it? I know Simon and others have said it’s expected many more will vote in person but being such a crucial state I’m surprised there isn’t more early vote energy, Thoughts?
Well, as of Friday, Democrats had built up a Ballot Edge ("Firewall") of 372,194. That’s increasing every day of early voting (Mail Ballot only). Moreover, Democrats are better at returning their Mail Ballots – 58.1% returned compared to only 53.4% for Republican.
Many Democrats who in previous elections have cast early Mail Ballot have said they’re voting on Election Day this year. Why? Because those ballots are counted first, and they want to deprive Republicans of a "Red Mirage" (i.e. early Trump lead).
Consider also that an NYT/Siena poll indicates that 12% of early-voting Republicans are voting for Harris, as well as evidence that early-voting Independents are expected to break 70/30 for Harris.
Keeping all this in mind, I think Pennsylvania is looking rather good for Harris.
Bless your heart ArcticStones (in a good way). :) With stats like this: "12% of early-voting Republicans are voting for Harris, as well as evidence that early-voting Independents are expected to break 70/30 for Harris" how can any pollster call this a tight race?
I have been stating many times that the 20% of Republicans who CONSISTENTLY voted from the Iowa caucuses to the final Republican primary even after Haley dropped out VOTED AGAINST Trump! Please remember the commitment it took for Iowans to brave snow and bitter cold to take hours in their caucus to vote against Trump! So, 12% of Republicans are voting for Harris and how many others are voting Republican and leaving their ballot blank for President? This happened in both AZ and GA in 2020 to give Biden those states. The USA voters are about 33% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 33% Republicans. Harris will get 95% of the Democrats (95% of 33 is 31.35%), 12% of Republicans (12% of 33 is 3.96%) and 60% of independents (60% of 33 is 19.8%). The grand total is 55.1% for Harris! This is enough of a margin to ensure the electoral college goes her way as well! You have to remember that many old MAGA have died! In my family alone, my Dad and middle brother have died since 2020 and O know they voted for Trump! The new voters since 2020 (they turned 18 since 2020) will go heavily for Harris. I taught these kids and they detest racism such as that displayed at Madison Square Garden this evening and Rick Scott will lose his Senate seat because some MAGAt called Puerto Rico a garbage pit at the NAZI/MAGA hate fest tonight in New York City! Michael Moore and I agree that Traitor Trump holding the NAZI hatefest in NYC was a sure sign of a losing campaign and Michael Cohen stated this morning Trump paid and bused people into NYC for his hatefest!
I think a pollster still has to follow their data. We all WANT this to be less tight than the narrative, and Simon and other like him give us good reason to be optimistic about that. But we don't want pollsters overcorrecting. Better to report what they're seeing, be transparent with their methodology, and then be pleasantly surprised when it's a big Harris win.
PA doesn't have typical in-person early voting. Only if you want a mail-in ballot and had not previously requested one can you walk into the elections office, apply, complete and submit an mail-in ballot. We've never been able to walk in and cast an actual vote that registers immediately except on election day. That's why many are foregoing mail-in for ED voting this time. Our mail-in ballot drop boxes only opened on Oct 25 in my county. Most troubling is that our Rep Statehouse has not improved the counting process, even with what happened in 2020 and with the effort to get more Rs to vote early. Our county has vastly improved it's counting process, but the next test will be on Nov 5.
I am going to share Michelle Obama's speech with any audience I have==friends, family, whatever. Politics alone won't do this. But democracy and civic engagement taken seriously will. I have more to say, but right now it is devolving into expletives that relieve tension but won't solve anything.
I wonder if we're not seeing analysis of failed 2022 predictions because the people who made those predictions don't want to admit they're doing the same stuff now.
Nice analysis! Their strongest point, in my view, would be the unprecedented divergence between Senate and presidential races if Trump were to match his polls. Since red wavers aren’t interested in Senate races, we can see a clear explanation for the discrepancy, although it has persisted all cycle. It’s possible that what was true lack of familiarity with Harris early has been replaced with red-wave bias late.
Love the article, but then again I'd love anything predicting a 300-plus EC vote Harris win and Florida in play (!). Can someone in the know tell us more about Vantage DH? Simon?
MSNBC's Weekend team discussed polling with Tom Bonier in their 9 AM program this morning. They made multiple references to Simon's analysis and the heavy republican bias in many of the polls.
What I am seeing on the ground in this election is unpecedented. Polling is broken. Come election day, there is going to be a big surprise. Blue tsunami.
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites.
Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters.
3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
I’m on H/W phone persuasion training — a good GOTV sign they are going back (to some extent) to the “persuasion universe.” This year’s expanding of the target electorate means the calls aren’t easy but fruitful in the aggregate!
Thank you all for your efforts. One week to go. I pray that your efforts get out as many Harris voters as possible, including the 18 - 20 year olds and other low propensity voters. It's all about GOTV in the Blue wall, especially Pennsylvania. I cannot thank you all enough for all you are doing. Love, Russ.
Is anyone calculating the amount of money we the people have spent on postcard and letter campaigns? If I use the 80M postcard figure and multiply by .52, I come up with $41.6M and that is for postage alone. It doesn't include the cost of the postcards. It also doesn't take into account the letter writing campaigns that Vote Forward and others organize. This is a MAJOR campaign contribution at the grassroots that no one talks about.
That and thousands working to cure ballots in swing states! We get them out to vote and then make sure their vote makes it across the finish line. :-).
I wrote over 2000 postcards since the lists came up from postcardstovoters.org for Florida VBM (Vote by Mail). I also had post cards parties with three friends on the weekends. We write longer postcards with key issues, the candidates website, and reference to iwillvote.com. We together wrote 120 postcards a day (30X4) for weeks because we are stressed! The postcards are cheap on Etsy. The stamps are $.56 each before mailing cost. It's worth it to save our Democracy.
Yeah, for some reason, I thought postcard stamps were $.52 not $.56. With forever stamps I can’t tell anymore. But you’re right it’s A whopping 45 million
Wow...I can't tell you how much I appreciate this, Simon!!! There are times I've felt that postcarding wasn't considered as important as canvassing, phone-banking, and the like. But I loved doing it and felt excited and energized by it...and I miss it now! So thank you for these two posts, which I will save as a reminder that this type of contribution is wildly successful!!! 💙🇺🇸💙
Well, that’s my other thought. You would think they wouldn’t need to keep increasing the cost of postage when they’re getting tens of millions of dollars from us.
I am so proud of the women who are leading us fearlessly during this crisis. Plenty of men are too, of course, but these women are rocking my socks!
I have been phone banking with VoteRiders to voters in PA, yesterday I helped a man with his ID issues.
Though you didn't get to join the phonebank, thank you for trying, and know that the number of volunteers being at over-capacity is a GREAT problem for the Harris campaign to have!
I got it here through Threads: https://www.threads.net/@kamalahq/post/DBoaKLqsiiS?xmt=AQGziGcT5C8s57Drd0X2Kpa-AcX3fSXlgae-xAwiuKQFFQ
EARLY VOTE – KEY STATES (updated)
(UPDATE, 10:30pm – GA, NV, FL and AZ updated.) Almost 42 million people have already voted. Over 21.1 million Mail Ballots have been returned, while more than 21.3 million people have voted Early In-Person. Georgia has exceeded, and North Carolina is on the cusp of, 50% of its 2020 turnout!
Here are the vote totals so far, plus the 2024 Early Vote as a percentage of the Total 2020 Vote, for eight swing states:
GA 56.4% 2,831,398<
NC 49.4% 2,740,069*
NV 43.6% 613,519<
FL 41.3% 4,598,652*<
AZ 37.8% 1,294,222<
MI 29.5% 1,647,223
WI 25% 826,249
PA 18.4% 1,281,847
(UPDATE 10:30pm – Ohio updated.) Other key states, four included because of vital Senate races:
MT 41.2% 252,030
TX 41.5% 4,707,448
VA 32.2% 1,457,884
OH 27.4% 1,637,003<
NE 21.2% 205,324
Additional states with strong Early Vote: SD 55.1%, TN 47.3%,
(Vote totals and percentages are from Prof. Michael McDonald’s Election Project, which in turn are based on official reports from the various Secretaries of State.)
*) States that report party registration
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
Gen Z have never voted previously and therefore are probably considered "unlikely" and uncounted by the polls.
Will you help me understand (English major, here) what the numbers ⬆️ suggest for NC, please? And the reason we in NC get to have an * after the number? Thanks. I know you are super busy. 🧢
Ah, sorry, I left out this footnote (added now):
*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.
As to your first question, for North Carolina, 2,740,069 votes constitutes 49.4% of the total number of votes cast in NC during the 2020 Presidential Election.
Thanks. NO sorry! 😘
FT 6 is still registering Democrats in NC. I just sent texts to NC via BYOP. https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks
Also NV, WI, MI.
Me too. And our big textbank sent 685K to WI and MD today also.
PA is so peculiar this election isn’t it? I know Simon and others have said it’s expected many more will vote in person but being such a crucial state I’m surprised there isn’t more early vote energy, Thoughts?
Well, as of Friday, Democrats had built up a Ballot Edge ("Firewall") of 372,194. That’s increasing every day of early voting (Mail Ballot only). Moreover, Democrats are better at returning their Mail Ballots – 58.1% returned compared to only 53.4% for Republican.
Many Democrats who in previous elections have cast early Mail Ballot have said they’re voting on Election Day this year. Why? Because those ballots are counted first, and they want to deprive Republicans of a "Red Mirage" (i.e. early Trump lead).
Consider also that an NYT/Siena poll indicates that 12% of early-voting Republicans are voting for Harris, as well as evidence that early-voting Independents are expected to break 70/30 for Harris.
Keeping all this in mind, I think Pennsylvania is looking rather good for Harris.
Bless your heart ArcticStones (in a good way). :) With stats like this: "12% of early-voting Republicans are voting for Harris, as well as evidence that early-voting Independents are expected to break 70/30 for Harris" how can any pollster call this a tight race?
I have been stating many times that the 20% of Republicans who CONSISTENTLY voted from the Iowa caucuses to the final Republican primary even after Haley dropped out VOTED AGAINST Trump! Please remember the commitment it took for Iowans to brave snow and bitter cold to take hours in their caucus to vote against Trump! So, 12% of Republicans are voting for Harris and how many others are voting Republican and leaving their ballot blank for President? This happened in both AZ and GA in 2020 to give Biden those states. The USA voters are about 33% Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 33% Republicans. Harris will get 95% of the Democrats (95% of 33 is 31.35%), 12% of Republicans (12% of 33 is 3.96%) and 60% of independents (60% of 33 is 19.8%). The grand total is 55.1% for Harris! This is enough of a margin to ensure the electoral college goes her way as well! You have to remember that many old MAGA have died! In my family alone, my Dad and middle brother have died since 2020 and O know they voted for Trump! The new voters since 2020 (they turned 18 since 2020) will go heavily for Harris. I taught these kids and they detest racism such as that displayed at Madison Square Garden this evening and Rick Scott will lose his Senate seat because some MAGAt called Puerto Rico a garbage pit at the NAZI/MAGA hate fest tonight in New York City! Michael Moore and I agree that Traitor Trump holding the NAZI hatefest in NYC was a sure sign of a losing campaign and Michael Cohen stated this morning Trump paid and bused people into NYC for his hatefest!
I think a pollster still has to follow their data. We all WANT this to be less tight than the narrative, and Simon and other like him give us good reason to be optimistic about that. But we don't want pollsters overcorrecting. Better to report what they're seeing, be transparent with their methodology, and then be pleasantly surprised when it's a big Harris win.
I remember that "red mirage" in Pennsylvania being a very big factor in Trump declaring victory in 2020, so I don't blame them !
It was utterly traumatizing to those of us who live and vote in PA, being on the point and bearing the psychological brunt of every election.
PA does not have in-person early vote this cycle. That's my hunch as well.
PA doesn't have typical in-person early voting. Only if you want a mail-in ballot and had not previously requested one can you walk into the elections office, apply, complete and submit an mail-in ballot. We've never been able to walk in and cast an actual vote that registers immediately except on election day. That's why many are foregoing mail-in for ED voting this time. Our mail-in ballot drop boxes only opened on Oct 25 in my county. Most troubling is that our Rep Statehouse has not improved the counting process, even with what happened in 2020 and with the effort to get more Rs to vote early. Our county has vastly improved it's counting process, but the next test will be on Nov 5.
Are there ‘Weekend Updates’ @ ArcticStones?
For some states, yes. I’ve been taking a break from everything but may take a look before calling it a night.
Hanna, I have just updated the numbers. The states with changed numbers are marked with <.
Awesome. Can’t wait to see the midweek update. Thank you!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/26/michelle-obama-rally-kamala-harris/75857905007/
Michelle's speech was 🔥
Incredible - especially her emphasis on reproductive rights and the potential consequences for both women AND men.
Yes. I can't recall anyone else ever talking about these issues in the factual and honest way that Michelle did.
I am going to share Michelle Obama's speech with any audience I have==friends, family, whatever. Politics alone won't do this. But democracy and civic engagement taken seriously will. I have more to say, but right now it is devolving into expletives that relieve tension but won't solve anything.
I have been encouraging people I know to listen to her speech.
I wonder if we're not seeing analysis of failed 2022 predictions because the people who made those predictions don't want to admit they're doing the same stuff now.
Be sure to read Simon’s comments in this article. It’s a shot in the arm for all the work we’re doing.
https://app.vantagedatahouse.com/analysis/TheBlowoutNoOneSeesComing-1
Great article, don't know this group.
What a fabulous and fascinating article! Thank you for this.
Nice analysis! Their strongest point, in my view, would be the unprecedented divergence between Senate and presidential races if Trump were to match his polls. Since red wavers aren’t interested in Senate races, we can see a clear explanation for the discrepancy, although it has persisted all cycle. It’s possible that what was true lack of familiarity with Harris early has been replaced with red-wave bias late.
RCP has T up in every swing state? 🙄🙄
RCP had Republicans having 54 Senate seats after 2022 midterms they ended up with 49...
Fran RCP is owned by right wingers, as Simon has pointed out. They are best ignored.
Wow! Thank you for finding and sharing this!
Love the article, but then again I'd love anything predicting a 300-plus EC vote Harris win and Florida in play (!). Can someone in the know tell us more about Vantage DH? Simon?
Just finished my last 200 postcards for postcards for swing states for Georgia!
Awesome. TY!
Just mailed all my postcards to swing states on Thursday.
MSNBC's Weekend team discussed polling with Tom Bonier in their 9 AM program this morning. They made multiple references to Simon's analysis and the heavy republican bias in many of the polls.
This is good. MSNBC is definitely pushing Simon’s and Tom’s analyses and calling bs on the red wave polling phenomena.
Is there a link for this interview by any chance?
https://www.msnbc.com/the-weekend
Click on "Dem strategist sets the record straight on inflated right-wing election polls"
Mailed 500 postcards to Georgia yesterday. Donated to NC again today. We’re not going back!!!!!!
Thank you from NC🧢!
You’re very welcome! Please join me folks!
Just made another donation to AZ and WI been textbanking MI and PA today.
Where can you sign up to text bank? I tried phone banking yesterday and I was a disaster. Finishing the last of my postcards today
What I am seeing on the ground in this election is unpecedented. Polling is broken. Come election day, there is going to be a big surprise. Blue tsunami.
REPRISE:
1. Uncle Sam needs you! https://www.mobilize.us/ (And me.)
2. Please repeatedly post "not suckers or losers" comments in social media. According to Facebook, there are 4 million veterans and active duty members on Facebook, as well as 12.5 million family members and 242 million friends with veterans or active duty members. Military sites, veterans' organizations, historical sites.
Vote vets has already flipped many 2016 and 2020 Trump voters.
3. It's up to people like you who are on social media.... when you comment you'll see what I mean. Many of the people involved are dependents, family members, friends and neighbors who are interested in the military and or national security and for whom this is news. Takes repetition and substantiation by people they trust.
🙏
I’m on H/W phone persuasion training — a good GOTV sign they are going back (to some extent) to the “persuasion universe.” This year’s expanding of the target electorate means the calls aren’t easy but fruitful in the aggregate!
And each call has a ripple effect! Anyone who doesn’t hang up will probably make some reference to the call with a family member or friend.
What is "H/W"?
Harris/Walz, I'd imagine.
Correct and there are two more such events, this Tue 10/29 as well as next Sun 11/3:
https://mobilize.us/s/Z48lN4
Thank you all for your efforts. One week to go. I pray that your efforts get out as many Harris voters as possible, including the 18 - 20 year olds and other low propensity voters. It's all about GOTV in the Blue wall, especially Pennsylvania. I cannot thank you all enough for all you are doing. Love, Russ.
Love you back, man!
Do you have any recommendations for phone banks this weekend?
Go to the volunteer section of the Harris campaign site. There are tons of opportunities for every state. Thanks for helping!
I did that this weekend and agree!
Nebraska 2 asked for phone-bankers
Lot's of options here. https://www.mobilize.us/?tag_ids=212
Is anyone calculating the amount of money we the people have spent on postcard and letter campaigns? If I use the 80M postcard figure and multiply by .52, I come up with $41.6M and that is for postage alone. It doesn't include the cost of the postcards. It also doesn't take into account the letter writing campaigns that Vote Forward and others organize. This is a MAJOR campaign contribution at the grassroots that no one talks about.
We are the secret sauce, my friend. 😘
That and thousands working to cure ballots in swing states! We get them out to vote and then make sure their vote makes it across the finish line. :-).
True HEFT under all our DMWL actions!!!!!!
💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
I wrote over 2000 postcards since the lists came up from postcardstovoters.org for Florida VBM (Vote by Mail). I also had post cards parties with three friends on the weekends. We write longer postcards with key issues, the candidates website, and reference to iwillvote.com. We together wrote 120 postcards a day (30X4) for weeks because we are stressed! The postcards are cheap on Etsy. The stamps are $.56 each before mailing cost. It's worth it to save our Democracy.
Well, at $0.56 per stamp (thanks for the correction Linda) that brings us to $44.8M. And THANK YOU!!! for your service!!!
💙This Floridian thanks you,Linda.
Amazing 🩷
Simon once said our grassroots contribution was equivalent to that of a major super PAC.
Since Simon has said that 80M+ postcards have gone out, that would put us at about $45M.
Yeah, for some reason, I thought postcard stamps were $.52 not $.56. With forever stamps I can’t tell anymore. But you’re right it’s A whopping 45 million
The actual real world value of 80m individualized, hand-written postcards is in hundreds of millions of dollars.
The postcard is like a massive SuperPAC on top of everything else we are doing.
Wow...I can't tell you how much I appreciate this, Simon!!! There are times I've felt that postcarding wasn't considered as important as canvassing, phone-banking, and the like. But I loved doing it and felt excited and energized by it...and I miss it now! So thank you for these two posts, which I will save as a reminder that this type of contribution is wildly successful!!! 💙🇺🇸💙
I estimate between stamps, postcards, and the shipping costs to get them, I’ve spent well over $700.
And supporting the USPS!
Well, that’s my other thought. You would think they wouldn’t need to keep increasing the cost of postage when they’re getting tens of millions of dollars from us.