VP Harris Up 4 In New ABC Poll, The Early Vote Is Encouraging, Michelle Obama Just Brings It, Joy Cometh In The Morning!!!

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Happy Sunday all. 9 more days of voting left! Let’s start today with a clip from the Vice President’s joyful appearance at a Philadelphia church this morning:

OK, that was pretty great. So is this new poll from ABC News that has the VP leading 51%-47% with likely voters, and gaining 2 points since ABC’s last poll:

This poll is a bit of narrative buster as it shows 1) The VP with a meaningful national lead among likely voters 2) her gaining ground, not losing ground 3) performing well with Latino and Black men:

A new CBS poll, a poll that has been running a little Republican this cycle, has Harris up 1, 50%-49%. Even with a one point lead their 7 battleground state estimates has Harris winning the Electoral College and the election:

These estimates are remarkably similar to the Washington Post’s more highly curated battleground state polling averages:

So it is possible Harris can win the election even with a one or two point national popular vote win? I think she can. If would be great if she wins by more, of course. But let’s dive into this a bit more.

First, here’s my rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th broken down by independent polls and those affiliated with right-wing and Republican organizations. It includes polls released this morning:

• Independent Polls - Harris +2.4

• 538 Natl Average - Harris +1.3

• Right-aligned Polls - Trump +0.9

Note like 2022 the red wave polls show an election 3-4 points more Republican than independent polling.

So where is the election today? I still think we are up by 2-3 points and in a stronger position in the Electoral College - despite what the averages and forecasters say. A flurry of red wave polls pushed the averages down in the past few weeks and tipped them to Trump - illegitimately in my view.

So 9 days out it is my view that we are winning the election my friends, but have not won it yet.

In 2022 there were two elections - a bluer one inside the battlegrounds and a redder one outside. We lost the national popular vote in the House races by 3 points but won elections and outperformed our 2020 results throughout the battleground states. We improved our position over 2020 in AZ, CO, GA, MI, MN, NH and PA in 2022, and won important stateside elections in NV and WI. It was a remarkable performance in a year that was supposed to be a red wave.

My explanation for why we did so well in many of these same battleground states last time has been, simply, because of all of you. Your donations and volunteer work helped us build the most powerful campaigns we’ve ever had in these states, allowing us to control the information environment and push our performance to the upper end of what was possible. Our super charged grassroots has also helped us win elections of all kinds across the US since Dobbs. We are just stronger and more motivated than them, and when we put our heads down and go to work - 80 million postcards! - we make good things happen.

We are starting to see that same Dem overperformance that we’ve been seeing since Dobbs in the 2024 early vote. As of this morning, according to TargetEarly, Republicans are performing 8.2 percentage points better in the national early vote than 2020. This is something we expected, as Rs are trying to push the early vote much harder this time and more younger Democrats are going to be unaffiliated this time. In the 7 battleground states, however, we are only trailing the Rs by 1.4 percentage points - an overperformance over the national early vote of 6.8 points.

That overperformance my fiends, as it was in 2022, is a sign of our far more muscular campaigns and your money and your hard work. Given that it is likely we will do better with both unaffiliateds and Republicans than 2020, it is very likely we are today running ahead of 2020 in the battlegrounds - a remarkable and encouraging achievement. Today we are running far ahead of 2020 in MI, NE-2 and WI, and are catching up in AZ, GA, NC, NV and PA. As of this morning, because of the gains we’ve made this week we are for the first time running ahead of the national early vote relative to 2020 in all 8 states. And this is in a battleground electorate that is so far whiter, older and more rural than 2020.

7 State Battleground Aggregate - TargetEarly - 10/27/24 morning

While we still have to work to do, it just no longer can be said that Republicans are winning the early vote and the media needs to stop going down that MAGA rabbit hole.

There has been far too little analysis in the national media of why we did so much better than everyone expected in 2022 in many of the same states we have to win this time. I have been arguing that those “two elections” we saw was due to our post-Dobbs intensity and the financial and organization advantages it gave us. The migration of higher-income and higher-educated voters into our coalition in recent years has helped fuel and fund this far more muscular Democratic Party. That rather than being an electoral challenge the migration of higher-income voters into our coalition has transformed American politics, and given us a new, incredibly important electoral advantage. It is an explanation for why we did so much better than everyone expected in 2022 and elections of all kinds since Dobbs; for why we are outperforming the national trend in the battleground states early vote; and why we could win the Electoral College and win the election even with a 1 or 2 point national popular vote. Your money and hard work, and our amazing candidate and her historic campaign, are once again making these battleground states bluer. Or as our candidate likes to say - when we fight, we win.

Here is Harris-Walz campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon talking this morning on MSNBC about why they are happy with the early vote results they are seeing (this was added Sunday afternoon, after the my post went out this morning):

The campaign released the following remarks from JOD’s full interview MSNBC interview:

It is okay to be nervous and to be anxious, but don't be freaked out, because we feel very good about where we are. We are very confident we're going to win this thing. And it's not just because we want to win. It's because what we're seeing in the numbers and the early voting that you were just talking about, what we're seeing with this extraordinary enthusiasm everywhere we go, we are seeing signs where we look to make sure that we are on track to win a very close race. This is going to be a close race. We've known it the entire fall. We're very focused on that. We've built for these moments right now, and what we are seeing from turnout to our volunteer operation to the enthusiasm growing, is exactly where we want to be.”

On the campaign’s enormous ground game reaching voters across battleground states:

Jen O’Malley Dillon: “Just yesterday alone, in our battleground states, we knocked on 1.2 million doors, and every weekend over the course of the fall, we've seen those numbers grow and grow and grow and for someone that isn't a traditional voter or maybe doesn't see politics or campaigning or traditional news, we have to work hard to reach them and reach them in ways that people want to receive their information. But that really means you go on a journey with someone. You're talking to them about the issues they care about. You are making sure they know the methods to vote in their own lives and what their communities are in, and you're helping support them through that. That takes a lot of effort. Most powerful in that effort is people in their own communities, volunteering and reaching out to people. That really matters.

“And we are so proud of this organization and the people that have come together, and it really reflects the Vice President's leadership. Our volunteers are from every walk of life, every, every age, every group, and they have relationships, and they have stories and reasons that they are putting this effort in, and they're sharing those as they're going out there to reach people. So we are so inspired by the organization and the people in this country that are standing up and standing with the Vice President and then going out there and doing the work to reach people that still need more information.

So, what does it mean? We just have keep prosecuting our advantage in these 8 states (incl NE-2), keep busting our ass, keep donating, keep outworking the ugly MAGAs, keep making every day a good day, and go out there and win this thing, together. We winning this election my friends, but have not won it yet. That is what we have to do, together, in these next 9 days.

Watch Michelle Obama’s incredible speech last night:

Watch this great new ad from the Harris-Walz campaign airing on the Eagles game this afternoon:

More 2024 election analysis for your reading, watching and listening pleasure:

• Watch my Thursday night appearance on Alex Wagner’s MSNBC show. Alex, Dan Pfeiffer and I had a great discussion about the election - polling, the early vote, and the big story that just broke about Elon Musk’s illicit and dangerous relationship with Vladimir Putin.

• My new video presentation and Hopium post on the election. The video and post are a very comprehensive deep dive on where things stand and are well worth your time.

• Our new Closing Strong episode with Nevada Senator Cortez Masto talking about why she thinks we will win there despite the early noise, a really interesting look at the third party vote (or lack thereof), and Tara and I do our regular roundup of the week’s electoral developments. Strongly recommend for those who want to go deeper into the Nevada early vote.

• On Thursday Tom Bonier and I joined Ben Meiselas of MeidasTouch for a really detailed look at the early vote and recent polling data. This is a must watch for the data nerds in Hopium land.

• This week I also sat down with The Center for American Progress for a wide ranging and wonderful conversation for their The Tent podcast. Enjoy this one too!

Doing More And Worrying Less/Working Hard And Closing Strong In The Home Stretch - 9 days of voting left everyone - let’s keep working it!

• Tuesday, Oct 29th, TBD - The Vice President Makes Her Closing Argument Speech On The National Mall - Register Here

• Tuesday, Oct 29th, 7-9pm - Calls for Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and Harris-Walz - Register Here (hope we will hear from both candidates, still working on it)

My one big ask today - please donate either to Ruben Gallego/Arizona or Anderson Clayton and the NC Dems. We need to keep working that second path to 270 beyond the core path of MI/PA/WI and NE-2!

I want to thank all of you who are self-reporting in on all your remarkable work across the country. Postcards, canvassing, back yard phonebank parties - you all are doing the work we need to do to win. For when the Hopium community is called - you answer! Thank you all.

Some have asked - are donations this late useful? Yes they are. My advice is that whatever you are going to give this year give it this weekend. The earlier they get the money the more useful it is to the campaign. Late money goes directly into augmenting paid advertising and reaching more voters. So yes it matters. Let’s keep working it people!

Harris-Walz, Our Presidential Checkmate States and Wisconsin - Learn more about our “checkmate” strategy, and support Ruben Gallego and these three front-line state parties:

• Harris-Walz, The Mothership - $1,333,000 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | Subscribe to The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel and watch her inspiring rallies live

• North Carolina - $957,000 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $574,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Wisconsin Dem Party - $92,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Watch Our Recent Closing Strong Interview with the great Ben Wikler

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $308,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb.

Winning The House - Keeping getting very good vibes from our candidates and House Democratic leadership about flipping the House this year. We need to keep working it peeps!

• Support All 15 Hopium-Backed Candidates With A Single Donation - $1,746,000 raised, $1,750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer, Learn More and Watch Interviews With Our Candidates (for our higher net worth donors note that you can give up to $49,500 split 15 ways for this group). You can donate to any one of our 15 candidates directly here.

Keeping The Senate Blue - this is a brawl my friends, and we just have to keep working it:

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $574,000 raised, $750,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Montana/Jon Tester - $170,000 raised, $200,000 goal (new stretch goal!) - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Ohio/Sherrod Brown - $115,000 raised, $100,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Wisconsin Dem Party/Tammy Baldwin - $92,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $308,000 raised, $300,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More

Growing The Hopium Community - We’ve set some goals for the growth of our community so more of us can be doing more and worrying less in the home stretch:

• Hopium Subscribers - 114,876 this morning, 125,000 goal

• Paid Subscribers - 13,315 this morning, 14,000 goal

Great work everyone. We are making real progress here. Hopium paid subscribers get access to a weekly live home stretch political briefing and Founding Members will have their own small gathering on Fridays. You can become a paid subscriber and help us hit our goals by clicking on the link below or following this link. The subscription tab includes options for gift and group subscriptions, all 10% off through Election Day!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you.

Let’s bring it home!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Simon