I’ve probably heard Joe Biden deliver his, “It’s never ever been a good bet to bet against the American People” line 200 times, but it still always stirs up emotion in me....I’m glad they’re using that in their ad campaign’s because it’s one of the things I can feel the most sincerity behind in his speeches 🇺🇸
The story about job creation under Democratic presidents is nice, but seems unconvincing to me. Is there a narrative that explains what specific policy actions led to this job growth? I realize that it is complicated, but if there is such a narrative then it would make the statistics more meaningful and convincing. Are there macroeconomists who have written about this issue whose work can be referred to and summarized?
Victor is the idea is that it was all just a big accident, that somehow the same thing keeps happening - we create growth, they create recessions - which has now happened in three straight Dem Presidents, and three straight R presidents - is all just blind luck, right place, right time, wrong place, wrong time?
I have worked all three of the Dem campaigns and with their White Houses and yes I think it was due to policy decisions we made, fiscal choices, taxes we raised (during both Clinton and Obama) and investments we made. You can't look at all this data and not conclude that we have been a successful party and things repeatedly get better with us - something Republicans simply cannot say. If you want growth, jobs and lower deficits you go with us. You want recessions, higher deficits and decline you go with them.
That is fine, but what would be helpful is a more granular argument about how policy choices led to an improved econnomy. I understand that very few people will want to sit through this, but there needs to be an explanation there as a basis. Correlation is not causdation. For example, the economic downturn that occurred in 2020 was due largely to covid, and the recovery since then was largely due to getting over covid. So I would attribute most of the economic success under Biden to the fact that people voted Trump out, in part because of his covid policies, and then the economy recovered. Now, one can attribute part of the downturn to Trump's poor covid policies and part of the recovery to Biden's good covid policies, and that is part of the granular expalation that I am talking about. What specific policies have led to economic success or failure?
So Victor if what you say is true, and the current economic conditions in the US are due to COVID open and closing what is the explanation for why our recovery here has been so much stronger than other G7 nations, and inflation is so much lower than Europe? Could it be that it was due to the economic and not COVID policies of the Biden Administration? The notion that shit just happens, and is not driven by policy of the most powerful institution in the world, the US government, is just not the way it is.
I will work on bringing in more detailed explanations of the economic policy choices of the last six Administrations in coming months, but I also recommend that you dive deeper into the mountain of content being created here and come to understand what is already here. There is a limit to how much I can produce here on this site, particularly of that level of detail. In my view that slide from today cannot be challenged, and that the only possible explanation for it is that Dems are good for the economy, Republicans aren't. Lots of other sources of information out there for you to pursue, including the economic speeches of Biden and the last 11 State of the Union/Inaugural speeches of the 3 Dem Presidents.
I found a paper by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, Presidents and the U.S. Economy (2015) that examined this issue, going back even further in time. They found similar good economic results under Democratic Presidents. Importantly, though, they were unable to come up with an explanation for exactly why. So it turns out that -- yes, the economy consistently is better under Democratic Presidents as opposed to Republican Presidents, but economists are not sure exactly why that happened. So I think that this is the answer to my question -- we are not sure why, but the good economic performance under Democratic presidents is quite solid (and continued beyond the timeframe of the Blinder/Watson paper). Maybe it is a combination of factors and good policies under Democratic presidents that varied over time.
Well...the data actually show that under Biden, we are better off on 11 of 12 measures than PRE-pandemic levels...so it's not 'merely' recovering from COVID. Thought as Simon notes, that alone would be worthwhile relative to the rest of the world -- and certainly, it would NOT be the case under a MAGA Presidency focused only on ensuring a wealthy, well-connected few billionaires and price-gouging corporations don't have to pay the taxes they owe.
And if you want a simple formula for what 'policies' delivered for the economy - how about the fact that Biden got checks into pockets of everyday Americans, delayed education debt payments, lowered prescription drug prices, invested in bridges, roads and high-speed internet, and incentivized green energy and semiconductor manufacturing -- all those policies led to more dollars (directly or indirectly via savings) in consumers pockets for more spending, and a (record) rise in jobs, especially higher paying ones.
Also, this bit of news under the radar -- a policy to strengthen the IRS (which has been depleted for years by the GOP), means more revenues for the government, i.e., lower deficits.
I agree with you, except that some of these have not kicked in yet. Increased revenues from IRS effectiveness will take a little while to materialize. And the prescription drug price reduction has not come into effect yet.
The $35 insulin provisions went into effect January 1, 2023, for Medicare Part D and July 1, for Medicare Part B.
The IRS has already begun spending funds earmarked for customer service by enabling taxpayers to respond to certain IRS notices online since February, and thanks to hiring 5,000 phone operators BEFORE the 2023 filing season, they are now answering 80% to 90% of calls, compared with only 17% during 2022's fiscal year. Phone wait times have dropped to ~four minutes compared with 27 (!) minutes at the same point last year.
Again, not direct economic gains, but indirect ones, already in place. I could provide lists of several other policies from the Infrastructure Plan that was passed before the IRA/CHIPs, but bottom line is policies enacted by Biden have quantifiably and qualitatively made things better.
And since we'd all prefer to forget about COVID, it's worth noting how successful Biden's management of the pandemic was (despite what should be seen as criminal efforts by MAGA Repubs to thwart vaccine uptake, mask-wearing and physical-distancing), which also generated huge economic gains for us.
Reminder that if you want to help make a difference—it starts with states! Literally.
When it comes to what affects our daily lives, state legislatures pass 23X more laws than Congress—the Dobbs decision overturning Roe came from the MI state legislature. Over half of state chambers draw not only state legislative districts, but also Congressional districts—giving gerrymandered, minority rule MAGA states an outsize impact on the rest of the country. They function as the bench (pipeline) for higher office, with about half of our Presidents having been in state legislatures, including Obama, FDR and Lincoln!
And, if you're like me and NOT a billionaire, for your contribution to have the biggest impact, donate to state legislative races—where budgets are in the tens or hundreds of thousands vs. millions and tens of million like any single Congressional race (let alone the Presidential)—this is where your dollars can do the most good.
Finally, if you're ready to phone bank, canvass or donate for the most strategic, winnable races to hold VA's Senate and flip the House of Delegates, check out Sister District Project (https://sisterdistrict.com); they've been 100% laser focused on state legislatures since 2017.
As we always say, elections matter...and it starts with states.
I love the Biden ad - strong, fact-based, and optimistic. Glad to know our contributions to the campaign help support that economic message. Hopefully our Democratic elected officials will reinforce in press interviews.
For those who missed it: In a CNN interview last night, Gavin Newsom showed his Democratic colleagues how to unequivocally endorse Joe Biden and Kamala Harris: "I want a seasoned pro that knows how to get things done. And the results are in: It's been a master class in terms of performance - bipartisan deals on infrastructure, bipartisan deals on guns and debt ceiling, on the CHIPS and Science Act. There's simply been no administration in my lifetime that has been more effective in producing more substantive results." On the question of whether Kamala Harris is the best person to be on the ticket, he answered without flinching: “Of course she is. The answer is yes, absolutely.” Fellow Information Warriors and Democratic elected officials, please take note!
Also last night, President Biden gave powerful words at a Broadway fundraiser. A few excerpts from his remarks: "I’m running because democracy is at stake, because in 2024 democracy is on the ballot once again. Let there be no question, Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy. And I will always defend, protect and fight for our democracy. I will not side with dictators like Putin. Maybe Trump and his MAGA friends can bow down, but I won’t."
On the subject of Biden’s age, he skillfully linked his experience with effectiveness and he did so with his trademark humor, humanity and optimism: "You may have noticed, a lot of people seem focused on my age. Well I get it. Believe me. I know better than anyone. I am more optimistic about the future of this country than in the 800 years I have served. When this nation was flat on its back, I knew what to do. On Ukraine, I knew what to do, to rebuild alliances. When democracy was at stake, I knew what to do. I believe we are hopeful optimistic nation driven by a simple proposition that everybody deserves a fair shot, just a shot."
Simon, could you home in further on the role of the media in some of these polls (eg, Trump is more fit than Biden)? All the D messaging in the world is not going to drown out MTP, CNN, network news. I'm thinking about low-info voters--which makes them sound dumb, but it's more they're just not that tuned in, even to the (growing) threat of fascism. And I do think some economic issues (inflation) have more salience than others (job growth). Thanks for all you do!
Perfect! Thanks Simon
I’ve probably heard Joe Biden deliver his, “It’s never ever been a good bet to bet against the American People” line 200 times, but it still always stirs up emotion in me....I’m glad they’re using that in their ad campaign’s because it’s one of the things I can feel the most sincerity behind in his speeches 🇺🇸
The story about job creation under Democratic presidents is nice, but seems unconvincing to me. Is there a narrative that explains what specific policy actions led to this job growth? I realize that it is complicated, but if there is such a narrative then it would make the statistics more meaningful and convincing. Are there macroeconomists who have written about this issue whose work can be referred to and summarized?
With Democrats Things Get Better, August 2023
https://youtu.be/efslAAXOUcc?si=VYcvs5cj3P7eSQgn
Victor is the idea is that it was all just a big accident, that somehow the same thing keeps happening - we create growth, they create recessions - which has now happened in three straight Dem Presidents, and three straight R presidents - is all just blind luck, right place, right time, wrong place, wrong time?
I have worked all three of the Dem campaigns and with their White Houses and yes I think it was due to policy decisions we made, fiscal choices, taxes we raised (during both Clinton and Obama) and investments we made. You can't look at all this data and not conclude that we have been a successful party and things repeatedly get better with us - something Republicans simply cannot say. If you want growth, jobs and lower deficits you go with us. You want recessions, higher deficits and decline you go with them.
That is fine, but what would be helpful is a more granular argument about how policy choices led to an improved econnomy. I understand that very few people will want to sit through this, but there needs to be an explanation there as a basis. Correlation is not causdation. For example, the economic downturn that occurred in 2020 was due largely to covid, and the recovery since then was largely due to getting over covid. So I would attribute most of the economic success under Biden to the fact that people voted Trump out, in part because of his covid policies, and then the economy recovered. Now, one can attribute part of the downturn to Trump's poor covid policies and part of the recovery to Biden's good covid policies, and that is part of the granular expalation that I am talking about. What specific policies have led to economic success or failure?
So Victor if what you say is true, and the current economic conditions in the US are due to COVID open and closing what is the explanation for why our recovery here has been so much stronger than other G7 nations, and inflation is so much lower than Europe? Could it be that it was due to the economic and not COVID policies of the Biden Administration? The notion that shit just happens, and is not driven by policy of the most powerful institution in the world, the US government, is just not the way it is.
I will work on bringing in more detailed explanations of the economic policy choices of the last six Administrations in coming months, but I also recommend that you dive deeper into the mountain of content being created here and come to understand what is already here. There is a limit to how much I can produce here on this site, particularly of that level of detail. In my view that slide from today cannot be challenged, and that the only possible explanation for it is that Dems are good for the economy, Republicans aren't. Lots of other sources of information out there for you to pursue, including the economic speeches of Biden and the last 11 State of the Union/Inaugural speeches of the 3 Dem Presidents.
I found a paper by Alan Blinder and Mark Watson, Presidents and the U.S. Economy (2015) that examined this issue, going back even further in time. They found similar good economic results under Democratic Presidents. Importantly, though, they were unable to come up with an explanation for exactly why. So it turns out that -- yes, the economy consistently is better under Democratic Presidents as opposed to Republican Presidents, but economists are not sure exactly why that happened. So I think that this is the answer to my question -- we are not sure why, but the good economic performance under Democratic presidents is quite solid (and continued beyond the timeframe of the Blinder/Watson paper). Maybe it is a combination of factors and good policies under Democratic presidents that varied over time.
Well...the data actually show that under Biden, we are better off on 11 of 12 measures than PRE-pandemic levels...so it's not 'merely' recovering from COVID. Thought as Simon notes, that alone would be worthwhile relative to the rest of the world -- and certainly, it would NOT be the case under a MAGA Presidency focused only on ensuring a wealthy, well-connected few billionaires and price-gouging corporations don't have to pay the taxes they owe.
https://twitter.com/David_Charts/status/1702159918994735291/photo/1
And if you want a simple formula for what 'policies' delivered for the economy - how about the fact that Biden got checks into pockets of everyday Americans, delayed education debt payments, lowered prescription drug prices, invested in bridges, roads and high-speed internet, and incentivized green energy and semiconductor manufacturing -- all those policies led to more dollars (directly or indirectly via savings) in consumers pockets for more spending, and a (record) rise in jobs, especially higher paying ones.
Also, this bit of news under the radar -- a policy to strengthen the IRS (which has been depleted for years by the GOP), means more revenues for the government, i.e., lower deficits.
https://thehill.com/business/4193872-irs-cracking-down-on-1600-millionaires-over-back-taxes/
I agree with you, except that some of these have not kicked in yet. Increased revenues from IRS effectiveness will take a little while to materialize. And the prescription drug price reduction has not come into effect yet.
The $35 insulin provisions went into effect January 1, 2023, for Medicare Part D and July 1, for Medicare Part B.
The IRS has already begun spending funds earmarked for customer service by enabling taxpayers to respond to certain IRS notices online since February, and thanks to hiring 5,000 phone operators BEFORE the 2023 filing season, they are now answering 80% to 90% of calls, compared with only 17% during 2022's fiscal year. Phone wait times have dropped to ~four minutes compared with 27 (!) minutes at the same point last year.
Again, not direct economic gains, but indirect ones, already in place. I could provide lists of several other policies from the Infrastructure Plan that was passed before the IRA/CHIPs, but bottom line is policies enacted by Biden have quantifiably and qualitatively made things better.
And since we'd all prefer to forget about COVID, it's worth noting how successful Biden's management of the pandemic was (despite what should be seen as criminal efforts by MAGA Repubs to thwart vaccine uptake, mask-wearing and physical-distancing), which also generated huge economic gains for us.
https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-arp-grew-the-economy-reduced-poverty-and-eased-financial-hardship-for-millions/
Recall: all but one of the 221 Democrats voted for the ARP, while ALL 210 Repubs voted NO (and one Repub just didn't vote).
Reminder that if you want to help make a difference—it starts with states! Literally.
When it comes to what affects our daily lives, state legislatures pass 23X more laws than Congress—the Dobbs decision overturning Roe came from the MI state legislature. Over half of state chambers draw not only state legislative districts, but also Congressional districts—giving gerrymandered, minority rule MAGA states an outsize impact on the rest of the country. They function as the bench (pipeline) for higher office, with about half of our Presidents having been in state legislatures, including Obama, FDR and Lincoln!
And, if you're like me and NOT a billionaire, for your contribution to have the biggest impact, donate to state legislative races—where budgets are in the tens or hundreds of thousands vs. millions and tens of million like any single Congressional race (let alone the Presidential)—this is where your dollars can do the most good.
Finally, if you're ready to phone bank, canvass or donate for the most strategic, winnable races to hold VA's Senate and flip the House of Delegates, check out Sister District Project (https://sisterdistrict.com); they've been 100% laser focused on state legislatures since 2017.
As we always say, elections matter...and it starts with states.
I love the Biden ad - strong, fact-based, and optimistic. Glad to know our contributions to the campaign help support that economic message. Hopefully our Democratic elected officials will reinforce in press interviews.
For those who missed it: In a CNN interview last night, Gavin Newsom showed his Democratic colleagues how to unequivocally endorse Joe Biden and Kamala Harris: "I want a seasoned pro that knows how to get things done. And the results are in: It's been a master class in terms of performance - bipartisan deals on infrastructure, bipartisan deals on guns and debt ceiling, on the CHIPS and Science Act. There's simply been no administration in my lifetime that has been more effective in producing more substantive results." On the question of whether Kamala Harris is the best person to be on the ticket, he answered without flinching: “Of course she is. The answer is yes, absolutely.” Fellow Information Warriors and Democratic elected officials, please take note!
Also last night, President Biden gave powerful words at a Broadway fundraiser. A few excerpts from his remarks: "I’m running because democracy is at stake, because in 2024 democracy is on the ballot once again. Let there be no question, Donald Trump and his MAGA Republicans are determined to destroy American democracy. And I will always defend, protect and fight for our democracy. I will not side with dictators like Putin. Maybe Trump and his MAGA friends can bow down, but I won’t."
On the subject of Biden’s age, he skillfully linked his experience with effectiveness and he did so with his trademark humor, humanity and optimism: "You may have noticed, a lot of people seem focused on my age. Well I get it. Believe me. I know better than anyone. I am more optimistic about the future of this country than in the 800 years I have served. When this nation was flat on its back, I knew what to do. On Ukraine, I knew what to do, to rebuild alliances. When democracy was at stake, I knew what to do. I believe we are hopeful optimistic nation driven by a simple proposition that everybody deserves a fair shot, just a shot."
Hopium, indeed!
This is gold Jon, thanks
💙💙💙
Simon, could you home in further on the role of the media in some of these polls (eg, Trump is more fit than Biden)? All the D messaging in the world is not going to drown out MTP, CNN, network news. I'm thinking about low-info voters--which makes them sound dumb, but it's more they're just not that tuned in, even to the (growing) threat of fascism. And I do think some economic issues (inflation) have more salience than others (job growth). Thanks for all you do!
Lincoln Project has just come out with a new ad highlighting Biden's experience, statesmanship and economic achievements. It's compelling.
https://youtu.be/TqOHbxIsXKU?si=bK6WuUCnMX42Vng3
Here it is! Agreed!