New National Harris Ad, Come Make Calls And Postcard for Mondaire Jones This Thursday. For Here We Do More And Worry Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Saw the New York Times poll this morning. So I put stamps on 300 postcards, went for a 5 mile run, and signed up to do phone calls this week following Michelle Obama‘s advice, “if you see a bad poll do something.” And following Simon‘s advice do more worry less.”
Yes TCash! Our everyday routine here in New Jersey is ALWAYS crank out postcards, plus my spouse makes SURE to tweet out a Vote On Day One message with the cute image of the jumping rabbit!
Not a comment so much as a question: Simon, will you be doing a Hopium group comment opportunity during Tuesday's debate like the ones you provided each night of the DNC? Thought those were a great way for Hopium folks to share together their thoughts in real time as the DNC was unfolding. Can imagine it would be energizing to do it during the debate, too.
Not, I hope, to trivialize this, but some (Democratic) friends and I will be playing “debate bingo” and on a second card “BS debate bingo”. I’ll be huddling with them.
I unsubscribed from the NY Times a while back, due to the bias and sane-washing. It’s a right wing paper now, and I see no need to read such things. Thanks for the inoculation against the poll though.
I don't know where the NYT gets their audacity, but they need to put it back. They have bent over backwards to cover this election (and, if we're being honest, the one in 2020) as a horse race, rather than a contest between an unhinged wannabe dictator the US voting populace already rejected once and a remarkable, infinitely more qualified, Democratic candidate. To suggest that their polls are more credible than others is nearly as bonkers as constantly invoking Hannibal Lecter during stump speeches.
In Arizona, where the vast majority of people vote by mail, ballots drop in 31 days. And early voting starts even earlier in some states (Sept 16 in PA!). So the time to act is now.
Folks - I'm here to tell you - most voters are not that informed about politics and are kind of checked out (shocking I know). BUT - when we phonebank, textbank, canvass and talk to our family and friends - people get informed and engaged.
Yesterday, I had the best 6 hours of textbanking with the DCCC (see links👇 if you want to TB too!) for Whitney Fox who is running to flip US House seat (FL-13) which is held by MAGA Anna Paulina Luna. I only sent 6K texts - I say only bc it only takes an hour to send that many and I spent 5 hrs responding to all the enthusiastic replies from people who wanted to volunteer, vote and donate. But I also had people who didn't even know that Fox was running! One woman - said I'm gonna do my research and I sent her two links. She replied - oh wait - Fox is running against Luna? I'm definitely voting for Fox - Luna is crazy. Another guy wanted to know her position on LGBTQ rights - she didn't have anything on her website so I did a search on Twitter and found a 100 posts supporting LGBTQ and sent to him. He replied - I'm definitely voting for her! SO - it is IMPERATIVE that we do the work - even when it's uncomfortable.
👉Go to www.mobilize.us and select "textbanks" in the filters.
👉Sign up to do a 1 hr training session with Movement Labs and then drop into their Slack channel anytime to text: https://www.movementlabs.com/volunteer
📍Many orgs do textbanks so if you sign up to do a training, they will then have you join their Slack channel (to answer questions) and often you can check in any day of the week and if they have a textbank up (or need help with replies), you can do it.
📍Textbanking is very effective - I often speak to more people on text than phonebanking. BUT textbanking is expensive to host so there aren't as many TBs as PBs so good to sign up early and get trained.
📍Technology: You only need a computer or tablet. It's not hard, but be patient in the training if it takes a bit to figure out the texting platform and Slack (Slack is a platform campaigns use to communicate with volunteers - it's overwhelming at first but then a great tool!).
Thanks so much for this info! I just signed up to textbank for the DCCC via the link above. They have slots available for Saturday and Sunday afternoons on Oct. 12 & 13! I'm excited to help. In 2020, I was a Biden/Harris text team moderator (I spent HOURS doing this while we all were in lockdown!!!), but this year I the strategy shifted (fewer texters needed), so I've been phone banking and postcarding when I can!!
Great news. I came from Florida, near to Luna’s district, and I can attest to how crazy she is. And it is a shame because that was the district that Charlie Crist held until it was gerrymandered. It had been a reliably Democratic seat. But people are so angry about that they are definitely open to Fox.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, the DeSantis regime is using Gestapo tactics to remove abortion from the ballot. "Florida’s Department of State has sent requests to supervisors of elections in four large counties to examine 36,000 petition signatures that were used to get Amendment 4 on the Nov. 5 ballot. If approved by at least 60% of voters, the measure will restore the right to an abortion up to viability, normally around 24 weeks, which was the standard before DeSantis signed a 15-week and, then, an extreme six-week ban. DeSantis’ deputy secretary of state Brad Mcvay sent a list of names to election supervisors of petition circulators suspected of fraud. McVay told Hillsborough County’s supervisor that the state wants to review petitions that were submitted by those individuals, even though the signatures were already deemed valid...."
Sent hundreds of thousands of texts to FL and GA Friday and yesterday. Also BYOP daily. FT 6 has sent about 12 million this cycle in the swing states. Here's the text:
Hi [Their Name]! In FL we love our freedoms. But MAGA Republicans don't! They passed a brutal abortion ban and oppose legal weed. FIGHT BACK! REGISTER & VOTE for Democrats like DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL for Senate & vote YES on Amendments 3 & 4 to legalize recreational marijuana AND restore abortion rights! ft6.us/FL_reg
We lost about a million Florida Democrats purged from voter rolls 2022 to present and we are receiving virtually no opt outs. Debbie is within 1 point, Kamala 2 in recent polls.
All of this is under the radar. Highly effective, especially when the texts are accompanied by phone calls and canvassing,
Besides Fox (who called to thank me after I donated to her), we have several other house districts we can flip. I am active in 27 and 28. Lucia Baez-Geller and Phil Ehr.
Great, and sad info about DeSantis and MAGA lawlessness. Sounds like he is about to start making trouble and misleading the voters. It should be too late, and clearly a lot of voters want it. 👿
Question about voting early: I live in Georgia and will be out of state the day early voting begins, and for the following three days, which leads up to a weekend, so the earliest I’ll be able to early vote will be Monday of the second week. I can promise to vote then. Or if it’s better, I can still request an absentee ballot which I’d be able to return, I believe, even before early voting begins. I’m open to suggestions on which would be better for the Dems.
As a Ga voter as well, safest to vote in person. There will be Republican mischief afoot in a 159 counties with anything mailed in this state, added to the specific postal challenges here due to Trump appointed postmaster DeJoy shenanigans.
Thanks, Gale. We do have a drop box I could use. I live in rural north Georgia for what it’s worth. Definitely very red, but I have great confidence in the election people here.
I live in very blue Massachusetts, and I vote by mail--as far as getting the ballot mailed to me. After that, I'm a dropbox-all-the-way user!! The USPS is just so terribly unreliable. But here in MA, we have a way to check our ballots online, with details added as it happens: the date we requested our vote-by-mail ballot, and the date when the ballot was marked by the election folks as "received" and "accepted," which means everything's okay, nothing needs fixing, my vote has been cast. It's incredibly efficient and effective!
(One election I absentee voted from Florida, and I sent my ballot back via overnight mail, with tracking because the USPS in FL is (intentionally?) glitchy!! I was very aware that having $$$ money to pay for that was a privilege many people don't have!)
I do exactly the same in blue CA - efficient, reliable, and easily tracked for confirmation. This should be the ‘blue’print for all the States’ voting systems.
I live in a predominantly 'quiet' red neighborhood in Buckhead. Some neighbors put out statehouse Republican signs which dodges confronting the bigger issues. In any case, our Harris/Walz 2024 sign goes up this week. I do it especially for the postal deliverers, package deliverers, landscape crews, and the sanitation workers-a reminder to vote and in solidarity...and also to provide a jolt of conscience when neighbors drive past our house on their way to work or errands.
Good for you. A couple of months ago I put a Biden/Harris sticker on my car, which some people (including me) around here consider kind of risky (getting car keyed or something). Added my “Harris/Walz: Not Going Back” sticker two weeks ago. I’m hoping some people around here will see them and think maybe they can take a risk of a kind and vote Blue.
That’s fine. I think it’s better to vote IN PERSON when you can. Greetings from NYC -- WE ARE WITH YOU! (Even though we know the South hates us... kidding, kidding) 😂✊🗳🇺🇸🍀🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🗳🗳🗳🗳
Yes - polling is broken because no one answers their phones (response rate bias) and then pollsters try to “fix” their sample by weighting certain responses. It’s why crosstabs are so wild and polling in general is misleading.
I would add one other item. We know this is an outlier poll because we also have state by state polling and Harris would not be in leading swing states if she were behind nationally.
We all knew we would see a crappy poll at some point. And as Simon mentioned, Tuesday will change the polling as well. Polls are not predictive. Go back and watch the presentation with Tom Bonier. There is a lot of good data there. It was always going to be a close election and it is close.
I am writing postcards today and getting ready to head to NC for 6 weeks of volunteering for the campaign. Everyone is doing their part and if you aren’t, there are plenty of ways to help. We just have to keep doing the work!
Am I right that this NYT poll shows no change from their last poll in July? I think so, but maybe I’m missing a poll issued in the interim.
If I’m right, this poll is about what I would expect give the new Sienna methodology - polling about 2-3 points favorably for Trump as compared to others. Nothing surprising here.
In any case, get ready for GOP narrative pollsters to seize on this as an opportunity to muddy the waters more. There will be a bunch of shitty polls drop this week showing Trump ahead. That’s a 100% certainty. That’s how GOP narrative polling works.
Hopefully we get some CBS, WaPo, ABC, Marist or Quinnipiac polls here soon.
This election was always going to be tough. The entirety of the political media has decided to sanitize or “sanewash” Trump’s horrific behavior and ideas. They need the horse race.
So, it’s up to us to remind folks that Trump is a court adjudicated rapist, a court adjudicated business fraud, a vile racist, a creepy misogynist who sexualizes his own daughter, an insurrectionist openly contemptuous of democracy and adoring of autocrats and a horrible, horrible human being.
Hi Simon, there are still thousands of postcards left to write for past Thursday campaigns on winningthehouse.com. Please put a reminder in the newsletter so these postcards will get written and mailed.
Same here. Our local Vote Forward (https://votefwd.org/about-us) writing team just surpassed the 2760 letters we wrote for the 2020 election! We are headed for our target of 3200 letters to the five Swing States: PA (1000), MI (600), GA (500), AZ (500) and NC (600) by the end of this week. Then we target the remaining key Congressional Districts for the rest of September. I have already started my 400 letters to CD CO-08 to re-elct Rep Caravejo. October will be spent phone canvassing in Denver Metro after the letters are mailed October 1st. Donate, Postcard, Letters, Text, Phone, Canvass, WIN!
Great post, Simon. If I can add anything, I think the polls do not matter for a different reason as well. Whether we are the true underdog, whether we are 4 points ahead (like in 2020), or whether we are 10 points ahead right now, every percentage point in every state matters.
If we are tied (whether nationally or in Pennsylvania), we need that extra percentage point. If we are 1 point ahead, we need to be 2 points ahead. If we are 4, we need to be 5. If we are 10, we need to be 11. Every vote against Trump and Trumpism counts. We need to be all hands-on-deck to move past this era of darkness and division.
So again, polls do not matter. For what it's worth, imo, it is always and will always be a question of turnout. And Trump, I believe, will have a turnout dilemma when it comes to abortion. My brother has written an excellent post alluding to this, which I recommend below:
My belief has always been that the closer we get to the election, the reality of the voters' options make him too unfathomable (most people are not crazy).
That combines with the recent massive expansions in new registrations (i.e., 157% in black woman voters).
Saw the New York Times poll this morning. So I put stamps on 300 postcards, went for a 5 mile run, and signed up to do phone calls this week following Michelle Obama‘s advice, “if you see a bad poll do something.” And following Simon‘s advice do more worry less.”
Yup- I sent donations out to Maricopa Dems and Tribes this morning. Have hundreds of postcards in front of me.
Doing something feels better already.🇺🇸
Thank you.
Doing much of the same. Keeping head down working on postcards and calls. Not paying attention to the polls for now.
Exactly, I just donated again to North Carolina and to Nebraska today after I read Simon’s post.
Thank you. You are awesome as well as everyone else who is taking action.
Yes TCash! Our everyday routine here in New Jersey is ALWAYS crank out postcards, plus my spouse makes SURE to tweet out a Vote On Day One message with the cute image of the jumping rabbit!
GO Team Hopium, don't let up!!! GO GO GO 🥥🌴💪
Everybody partner with FT 6.
Still time to out register them. Still flying under the radar.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
Thank you!
Not a comment so much as a question: Simon, will you be doing a Hopium group comment opportunity during Tuesday's debate like the ones you provided each night of the DNC? Thought those were a great way for Hopium folks to share together their thoughts in real time as the DNC was unfolding. Can imagine it would be energizing to do it during the debate, too.
Not, I hope, to trivialize this, but some (Democratic) friends and I will be playing “debate bingo” and on a second card “BS debate bingo”. I’ll be huddling with them.
How does debate bingo work? (We were just making popcorn...)
https://store.kamalaharris.com/harris-walz-debate-bingo-cards-digital-download/ It works the usual way. Cross out any boxes when you hear what's in the box. If you get five in a row (diagonal, down or across) say "bingo" - YOU WON!
Oh what fun. TU.
I hope so! I live in Mexico and loved the real time commenting.
I unsubscribed from the NY Times a while back, due to the bias and sane-washing. It’s a right wing paper now, and I see no need to read such things. Thanks for the inoculation against the poll though.
Me too.
Agreed, big time! I also unsubscribed right before Joe stepped down. I don't trust them to treat Dems fairly!🙄
Me too
I don't know where the NYT gets their audacity, but they need to put it back. They have bent over backwards to cover this election (and, if we're being honest, the one in 2020) as a horse race, rather than a contest between an unhinged wannabe dictator the US voting populace already rejected once and a remarkable, infinitely more qualified, Democratic candidate. To suggest that their polls are more credible than others is nearly as bonkers as constantly invoking Hannibal Lecter during stump speeches.
The voting populace rejected him twice. The GOP's electoral college expertise appointed him.
They don't report his demeanor and appearance.
In their guts, they know he's nuts.
In Arizona, where the vast majority of people vote by mail, ballots drop in 31 days. And early voting starts even earlier in some states (Sept 16 in PA!). So the time to act is now.
I'm writing postcards; turnoutpac says to mail them Oct. 10th.
Folks - I'm here to tell you - most voters are not that informed about politics and are kind of checked out (shocking I know). BUT - when we phonebank, textbank, canvass and talk to our family and friends - people get informed and engaged.
Yesterday, I had the best 6 hours of textbanking with the DCCC (see links👇 if you want to TB too!) for Whitney Fox who is running to flip US House seat (FL-13) which is held by MAGA Anna Paulina Luna. I only sent 6K texts - I say only bc it only takes an hour to send that many and I spent 5 hrs responding to all the enthusiastic replies from people who wanted to volunteer, vote and donate. But I also had people who didn't even know that Fox was running! One woman - said I'm gonna do my research and I sent her two links. She replied - oh wait - Fox is running against Luna? I'm definitely voting for Fox - Luna is crazy. Another guy wanted to know her position on LGBTQ rights - she didn't have anything on her website so I did a search on Twitter and found a 100 posts supporting LGBTQ and sent to him. He replied - I'm definitely voting for her! SO - it is IMPERATIVE that we do the work - even when it's uncomfortable.
✋If you want to textbank, here are some options:
👉DCCC - sign up here: https://www.mobilize.us/dccc/event/617917/
👉Go to www.mobilize.us and select "textbanks" in the filters.
👉Sign up to do a 1 hr training session with Movement Labs and then drop into their Slack channel anytime to text: https://www.movementlabs.com/volunteer
👉Sign up to train on Field Team 6's BYOP texting (sounds hard but it's not) and do it anytime: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/433467/
📍Many orgs do textbanks so if you sign up to do a training, they will then have you join their Slack channel (to answer questions) and often you can check in any day of the week and if they have a textbank up (or need help with replies), you can do it.
📍Textbanking is very effective - I often speak to more people on text than phonebanking. BUT textbanking is expensive to host so there aren't as many TBs as PBs so good to sign up early and get trained.
📍Technology: You only need a computer or tablet. It's not hard, but be patient in the training if it takes a bit to figure out the texting platform and Slack (Slack is a platform campaigns use to communicate with volunteers - it's overwhelming at first but then a great tool!).
Wonderful – a Fox I can support!
good bumper sticker
Great post!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thank you! I have been wondering how to textbank.
Thanks so much for this info! I just signed up to textbank for the DCCC via the link above. They have slots available for Saturday and Sunday afternoons on Oct. 12 & 13! I'm excited to help. In 2020, I was a Biden/Harris text team moderator (I spent HOURS doing this while we all were in lockdown!!!), but this year I the strategy shifted (fewer texters needed), so I've been phone banking and postcarding when I can!!
Great news. I came from Florida, near to Luna’s district, and I can attest to how crazy she is. And it is a shame because that was the district that Charlie Crist held until it was gerrymandered. It had been a reliably Democratic seat. But people are so angry about that they are definitely open to Fox.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, the DeSantis regime is using Gestapo tactics to remove abortion from the ballot. "Florida’s Department of State has sent requests to supervisors of elections in four large counties to examine 36,000 petition signatures that were used to get Amendment 4 on the Nov. 5 ballot. If approved by at least 60% of voters, the measure will restore the right to an abortion up to viability, normally around 24 weeks, which was the standard before DeSantis signed a 15-week and, then, an extreme six-week ban. DeSantis’ deputy secretary of state Brad Mcvay sent a list of names to election supervisors of petition circulators suspected of fraud. McVay told Hillsborough County’s supervisor that the state wants to review petitions that were submitted by those individuals, even though the signatures were already deemed valid...."
Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/opinion/editorials/article292035990.html#storylink=cpy
Sent hundreds of thousands of texts to FL and GA Friday and yesterday. Also BYOP daily. FT 6 has sent about 12 million this cycle in the swing states. Here's the text:
Hi [Their Name]! In FL we love our freedoms. But MAGA Republicans don't! They passed a brutal abortion ban and oppose legal weed. FIGHT BACK! REGISTER & VOTE for Democrats like DEBBIE MUCARSEL-POWELL for Senate & vote YES on Amendments 3 & 4 to legalize recreational marijuana AND restore abortion rights! ft6.us/FL_reg
We lost about a million Florida Democrats purged from voter rolls 2022 to present and we are receiving virtually no opt outs. Debbie is within 1 point, Kamala 2 in recent polls.
All of this is under the radar. Highly effective, especially when the texts are accompanied by phone calls and canvassing,
Besides Fox (who called to thank me after I donated to her), we have several other house districts we can flip. I am active in 27 and 28. Lucia Baez-Geller and Phil Ehr.
Please volunteer. https://www.fieldteam6.org/all-volunteer-ops/volunteer
Great, and sad info about DeSantis and MAGA lawlessness. Sounds like he is about to start making trouble and misleading the voters. It should be too late, and clearly a lot of voters want it. 👿
Thank you!
Question about voting early: I live in Georgia and will be out of state the day early voting begins, and for the following three days, which leads up to a weekend, so the earliest I’ll be able to early vote will be Monday of the second week. I can promise to vote then. Or if it’s better, I can still request an absentee ballot which I’d be able to return, I believe, even before early voting begins. I’m open to suggestions on which would be better for the Dems.
<Waves from NJ, where I'm postcarding for y'all this weekend> 💪🏼🍑🥥
And from Washington, I will doing the same!
As a Ga voter as well, safest to vote in person. There will be Republican mischief afoot in a 159 counties with anything mailed in this state, added to the specific postal challenges here due to Trump appointed postmaster DeJoy shenanigans.
Thanks, Gale. We do have a drop box I could use. I live in rural north Georgia for what it’s worth. Definitely very red, but I have great confidence in the election people here.
I live in very blue Massachusetts, and I vote by mail--as far as getting the ballot mailed to me. After that, I'm a dropbox-all-the-way user!! The USPS is just so terribly unreliable. But here in MA, we have a way to check our ballots online, with details added as it happens: the date we requested our vote-by-mail ballot, and the date when the ballot was marked by the election folks as "received" and "accepted," which means everything's okay, nothing needs fixing, my vote has been cast. It's incredibly efficient and effective!
(One election I absentee voted from Florida, and I sent my ballot back via overnight mail, with tracking because the USPS in FL is (intentionally?) glitchy!! I was very aware that having $$$ money to pay for that was a privilege many people don't have!)
I do exactly the same in blue CA - efficient, reliable, and easily tracked for confirmation. This should be the ‘blue’print for all the States’ voting systems.
Also in MA. We are fortunate in that way. I often vote by Absentee, but this year I vote in person.
I get such a rush of emotion when I go inside and place my ballot in the box. I always have. It makes me feel like an American.
I live in a predominantly 'quiet' red neighborhood in Buckhead. Some neighbors put out statehouse Republican signs which dodges confronting the bigger issues. In any case, our Harris/Walz 2024 sign goes up this week. I do it especially for the postal deliverers, package deliverers, landscape crews, and the sanitation workers-a reminder to vote and in solidarity...and also to provide a jolt of conscience when neighbors drive past our house on their way to work or errands.
Good for you. A couple of months ago I put a Biden/Harris sticker on my car, which some people (including me) around here consider kind of risky (getting car keyed or something). Added my “Harris/Walz: Not Going Back” sticker two weeks ago. I’m hoping some people around here will see them and think maybe they can take a risk of a kind and vote Blue.
That’s fine. I think it’s better to vote IN PERSON when you can. Greetings from NYC -- WE ARE WITH YOU! (Even though we know the South hates us... kidding, kidding) 😂✊🗳🇺🇸🍀🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🗳🗳🗳🗳
Remember the NYT/Sienna crazy Nevada poll?
Take this recent one as a data point.
Channel nervous energy into productive action. Sign up for a phone/text bank, work on your post cards, sign up people to vote, etc.
what was that nevada poll about?
Simon, curious your take on this thread about polls: https://www.threads.net/@praxiscatmusic/post/C_pMuxqufbU/?xmt=AQGzoIByqy44orYs9A6tm-4slMfpM1o0YIKWt3d1LShLeA
Yes - polling is broken because no one answers their phones (response rate bias) and then pollsters try to “fix” their sample by weighting certain responses. It’s why crosstabs are so wild and polling in general is misleading.
I would add one other item. We know this is an outlier poll because we also have state by state polling and Harris would not be in leading swing states if she were behind nationally.
We all knew we would see a crappy poll at some point. And as Simon mentioned, Tuesday will change the polling as well. Polls are not predictive. Go back and watch the presentation with Tom Bonier. There is a lot of good data there. It was always going to be a close election and it is close.
I am writing postcards today and getting ready to head to NC for 6 weeks of volunteering for the campaign. Everyone is doing their part and if you aren’t, there are plenty of ways to help. We just have to keep doing the work!
Lichtman is better than the polls.
Am I right that this NYT poll shows no change from their last poll in July? I think so, but maybe I’m missing a poll issued in the interim.
If I’m right, this poll is about what I would expect give the new Sienna methodology - polling about 2-3 points favorably for Trump as compared to others. Nothing surprising here.
In any case, get ready for GOP narrative pollsters to seize on this as an opportunity to muddy the waters more. There will be a bunch of shitty polls drop this week showing Trump ahead. That’s a 100% certainty. That’s how GOP narrative polling works.
Hopefully we get some CBS, WaPo, ABC, Marist or Quinnipiac polls here soon.
This election was always going to be tough. The entirety of the political media has decided to sanitize or “sanewash” Trump’s horrific behavior and ideas. They need the horse race.
So, it’s up to us to remind folks that Trump is a court adjudicated rapist, a court adjudicated business fraud, a vile racist, a creepy misogynist who sexualizes his own daughter, an insurrectionist openly contemptuous of democracy and adoring of autocrats and a horrible, horrible human being.
It’s up to us.
I’m not concerned. It’s the NYT we’re talking about. Nuff said.
Hi Simon, there are still thousands of postcards left to write for past Thursday campaigns on winningthehouse.com. Please put a reminder in the newsletter so these postcards will get written and mailed.
Thanks so much for commenting this am on that Times/Sienna poll, Simon! Anxiety relieved; now back to work.
Just what I needed today, Simon. Back to my postcards. 100 more today. Onward!
Same here. Our local Vote Forward (https://votefwd.org/about-us) writing team just surpassed the 2760 letters we wrote for the 2020 election! We are headed for our target of 3200 letters to the five Swing States: PA (1000), MI (600), GA (500), AZ (500) and NC (600) by the end of this week. Then we target the remaining key Congressional Districts for the rest of September. I have already started my 400 letters to CD CO-08 to re-elct Rep Caravejo. October will be spent phone canvassing in Denver Metro after the letters are mailed October 1st. Donate, Postcard, Letters, Text, Phone, Canvass, WIN!
Good work! It's so important that Caravejo holds her seat in CO-08.
Great post, Simon. If I can add anything, I think the polls do not matter for a different reason as well. Whether we are the true underdog, whether we are 4 points ahead (like in 2020), or whether we are 10 points ahead right now, every percentage point in every state matters.
If we are tied (whether nationally or in Pennsylvania), we need that extra percentage point. If we are 1 point ahead, we need to be 2 points ahead. If we are 4, we need to be 5. If we are 10, we need to be 11. Every vote against Trump and Trumpism counts. We need to be all hands-on-deck to move past this era of darkness and division.
So again, polls do not matter. For what it's worth, imo, it is always and will always be a question of turnout. And Trump, I believe, will have a turnout dilemma when it comes to abortion. My brother has written an excellent post alluding to this, which I recommend below:
https://michaelsalzillo17.substack.com/p/weekend-pre-debate-highlights
My belief has always been that the closer we get to the election, the reality of the voters' options make him too unfathomable (most people are not crazy).
That combines with the recent massive expansions in new registrations (i.e., 157% in black woman voters).