We Haven't Won This Election Yet, My Friends. We Have 58 Days To Go Win It, Together

New National Harris Ad, Come Make Calls And Postcard for Mondaire Jones This Thursday. For Here We Do More And Worry Less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Happy Sunday all. I try to take Sundays off but with the NYT dropping a poll showing Trump pulling ahead, 48-47, I am doing a short post.

I try very hard to not get into analyzing individual polls and instead look at broad trends across all polling. For as you’ve heard me say the core conceit of the polling industrial complex is that polls are accurate, a photograph of a moment rather than a sketch. And the truth is they are far more like a hurried sketch than a photograph and thus no one poll can claim to capture the essence of a fleeting moment. Given the limitations of any single poll, it is best to look at trends across all polls. This is why we’ve come to rely on poll averages in recent years.

Today the NYT tells us not to do that. They tell us we should ignore the 12 non-partisan polls with interviews taken since August 28th, polls that show VP Harris with a 3 point lead on average and no movement towards Trump. Here is what the NYT wrote today:

There’s also a plausible reason the Times/Siena poll would be the first to capture a shift back toward Mr. Trump: There simply haven’t been many high-quality surveys fielded since the convention, when Ms. Harris was riding high. There was a scattering of online polls this week, but there hasn’t been a traditional high-quality survey with interviews conducted after Aug. 28.

Sorry NYT but we are not going to dismiss all these other polls taken during this period showing us with a three point national lead and in a better position in the battlegrounds. Not how this works. Your poll is one among many, and today it is an outlier, the only one of 13 polls taken in recent weeks showing Trump with a lead. But it also doesn’t really matter. With the debate Tuesday the election will change again, and in a few days we will be talking about all the new polls flying at us after the debate.

The big takeaway for me in all this is that while I believe we lead and are favored to win this election (see here) we have not yet won the election - we have to go out, together, and win it. Early in person voting begins in 12 days. There are 46 days of voting after that. I want us to imagine winning this election not on the last day of voting, Election Day, but in October. Together, with the millions of others who are backing Harris-Walz, our goal should be to channel all this enthusiasm we have and explode the early vote, get everyone in our networks Voting on Day 1 and voting early, and run up the score in the early vote, making it impossible for Trump to catch us on Election Day.

Winning this thing in October is what we’ve all been building towards these last few years. All this work we did in the midterms to prevent a red wave; all the work we did in 2023 to win in places like FL, OH, WI; all the work we did in 2024 in places like NY-3 where we made 2 million phone calls in 5 weeks. All of this work in these last few years was getting us ready to do the big thing we need to go do now - to use the incredible power of the Democratic grassroots to crush MAGA in the early vote and win this thing in October.

The campaign grinds on. We have a big debate Tuesday. The campaign released a new ad today and announced a very intense set of battleground events for the days after the debate. An excerpt from a new Harris-Walz release:

Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz will barnstorm battleground states in the days following the first presidential debate between Harris and Donald Trump. With less than 60 days until Election Day, the swing will include events in every media market in every battleground state in just four days. Second Gentleman Douglas Emhoff and Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz will also hit the trail, in addition to other top surrogates. The Vice President will kick off the tour in North Carolina on Thursday, before heading to Pennsylvania on Friday. Our post-debate mobilization will also include a new ad that will begin airing across battleground states.

From Thursday, September 12 through Sunday, September 15, the New Way Forward Tour will continue the campaign’s efforts to mobilize support, drive enthusiasm, and reach the voters who will decide this election as we approach the closing weeks of the campaign. Across the country, campaign surrogates will underscore the contrast between Vice President Harris and Governor Walz’s vision for a brighter, more hopeful future versus Donald Trump and JD Vance’s Project 2025 that will give Trump unprecedented, unchecked power to enact his extreme and dangerous agenda. The events will vary from rallies to community events to canvass kick-offs to additional stops on the Reproductive Rights Bus Tour, and also include programming specifically targeting critical constituencies with the final day of the tour culminating on the first day of Hispanic Heritage Month.

“This election is about two very different visions for our country. Donald Trump and JD Vance want to take us backward with their dangerous and extreme Project 2025 agenda. Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are fighting for a New Way Forward that protects our fundamental freedoms, strengthens our democracy, and ensures every person has the opportunity to not just get by, but to get ahead,” said Harris-Walz campaign Communications Director Michael Tyler. “With early voting about to begin and less than 60 days until Election Day, our campaign will take the vice president’s message directly to the voters wherever they are – on the airwaves, on the doors, and online. With so much at stake in this election, we are blitzing the battlegrounds and leaving it all out on the field.”

Here’s the new ad:

Ready to get to work? For here at Hopium Chronicles our community of proud patriots and info warriors, our community of doers, here, what do we do?

We do more and worry less.

I for one am not worrying about a single poll today. I am here with all of you, doing.

Here’s my post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. Sign up to call or postcard for Mondaire Jones (NY-17) at this week’s Winning The House Thursday. These events have been well-attended and fun - join us if you can!

Contribute, volunteer and win with the Hopium community today:

• Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $951,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - Let’s get to $1m people by the debate people!

• Winning The House - $1,012,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Sign Up For Our Thursday Night Winning The House Calling and Postcarding Series. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. To go deeper watch one of our interviews with our great candidates - Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19), Tony Vargas (NE-02), Adam Gray (CA-13), Sue Altman (NJ-07) and Mondaire Jones (NY-17).

• North Carolina - $440,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $346,000 rised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - $159,000 raised, $175,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb

Here are ways you can do even more:

• Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 12 days away!

• Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election.

• Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can you update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing the Hopium flowing!

Keep working hard all. It’s how we win - Simon