Happy Thursday all. We are 5 days until the debate, 13 days until an interest rate cut, 13 days until Trump is sentenced for his 34 felony convictions, 15 days until early in-person voting begins in MN, SD and VA and 60 days until we kick their ass in the 2024 election. Let’s get to it…..
My New Talk With Tom Bonier - We lead off today with my the discussion I recorded with my close friend and colleague Tom Bonier, above. Tom and I collaborated in 2022 to create the analysis that challenged, correctly, the “red wave” consensus. In our talk we review how we got 2022 right when so many got it wrong, and apply that same approach to the data in front of us right now. We are deeply encouraged by the intensity we keep seeing - strong Dem performance in special elections; explosive fundraising, volunteer sign ups and voter contact work; huge crowds at our events; dramatically improving voter registration numbers; spiking levels of Dem enthusiasm; polling leads nationally, in the battlegrounds and in almost every Senate and gubernatorial contest that matters. These measures of Dem intensity is what led us to believe 2022 would be better for us than many predicted, and the good news today is they are all breaking for us again in this election.
It has been core to our analysis that Dobbs fundamentally altered the political dynamic in America. It was a before and after moment in our politics. The way I describe it is that something broke inside the Republican Party with Dobbs, that for a big chunk of Republicans it was too just much, a bridge too far, this MAGA thing had truly become too dangerous and extreme. This fracturing has led to a weaker Republican Party, one that has struggled to raise money and pull its coalition back together in elections of all kinds in all regions of the country since Dobbs. Since Dobbs the Rs have just kept struggling and underperforming.
For Democrats the escalating MAGA threat has created heightened intensity - more money, more volunteers, more powerful campaigns for both persuasion and turnout - which has lead to repeated Democratic overperformance of polls and expectations, and wins in elections of all kinds across the US these past two and a half years.
In our talk Tom and I discuss why we think it is likely 2024 looks more like 2022 than 2016 and 2020, as this same basic dynamic we saw emerge in the summer of 2022 - heightened Dem intensity, GOP struggle - is what we are seeing right now in the data. The one notable difference from 2022 to today is that our national and state polls are actually better then they were during the closing months of 2022.
To be clear it has been Republicans and Trump who have underperforming public polls since Dobbs, not Democrats. Those arguing Trump will once again overperform his public polls by 3-4 points this November are way out there on an analytical limb for this is not what has been happening for either the Rs or Trump himself in elections since Dobbs. Trump dramatically underperformed his public polling throughout the primary season, as Rs have done throughout this post Dobbs period, as the fascists just did in Europe and France. My explanation for this is 9 years into the Trump era and years now into Putin’s genocidal war in Ukraine voters in the West understand the threat of greater MAGA and its European allies and when the time comes to vote comes - not answer a poll - a meaningful chunk of the voters available to them just cannot pull the lever for fascism and extremism.
Here’s Liz Cheney making the case for a Republican vote against extremism yesterday, when she comes out not just against Donald Trump but for Kamala Harris:
Tom also announced last night that his firm, TargetSmart, will be releasing two public tools in the coming days that will make it easier for us to understand what’s happening in the 2024 election. The first will track voter registration trends in the states, and the second will track the early vote. The second tool, called TargetEarly, provides an unparalleled look into the early vote and was a critical resource for us in 2022. I will share links with both when they go live.
So, bottom line peeps. We feel good. I would much rather be us than them. If we do the work we can and should win this election. Enjoy our discussion and share it others, and then let’s put our heads down, work harder on this election than on anything we’ve ever worked on, and let’s go win this thing, together.
US Takes Steps To Counter Russian Influence Campaigns Here - Very welcome news from Washington this morning:
The United States on Wednesday announced a broad effort to push back on Russian influence campaigns in the 2024 election, as it tries to curb the Kremlin’s use of state-run media and fake news sites to sway American voters.
The actions include sanctions, indictments and seizing of web domains that U.S. officials say the Kremlin uses to spread propaganda and disinformation about Ukraine, which Russia invaded more than two years ago.
Attorney General Merrick B. Garland detailed the actions taken by the Justice Department. They include the indictment of two Russian employees of RT, the state-owned broadcaster, who used a company in Tennessee to spread content, and the takedown of a Russian malign influence campaign known as Doppelgänger.
“The American people are entitled to know when a foreign power engages in political activities or seeks to influence public discourse,” Mr. Garland said.
The Treasury Department imposed sanctions on ANO Dialog, a Russian nonprofit that helps run the Doppelgänger network, as well as the editor in chief of RT, Margarita S. Simonyan, and her deputies.
The State Department has offered a $10 million reward for information pertaining to foreign interference in an American election. The department specifically said it was seeking information on a group known as Russian Angry Hackers Did It, or RaHDit.
The State Department also said it would designate five Russian state-funded news outlets, including RT, Ruptly and Sputnik, as foreign government missions and restrict the issuance of visas to people working for Kremlin-supported media institutions.
American officials have stepped up their warnings about Russian election influence efforts. American spy agencies have assessed that the Kremlin favors former President Donald J. Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris in the November contest, seeing him as more skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine.
Russia’s deep penetration of the Republican Party is one of the most important issues in our politics today, and one that we will be discussing much more often in the coming months. Look at this graphic, released by the GOP itself. These are literally the most pro-Russian figures in the Republican Party today, and here they are reminding all of us that under Trump the GOP has become the party of Putin.
Tonight, 730pm ET - Postcard and Phonebank for George Whitesides (CA-27) - So we are back at it tonight for an evening of work for George Whitesides, our terrific candidate in CA-27. You can register for our event here, and note when doing so you can now select which breakout room you want to join. We have trainings for both activities live each evening, and for those who are more experienced you can a select a breakout room without training and just get to work. Visit here to learn more about ordering postcards for these events. Each week we will be reaching our to core Democratic voters and encouraging them to Vote on Day 1 and letting them know when early in person and mail/drop box voting begins in their states.
Most weeks we will hear directly from the candidate at the beginning of our session, just a few minutes after 730pm, so plan on joining us on time each week. At the end of each session, after we’ve done our work, I will be providing a 10 minute overview of the current national political landscape. I will also be joining each breakout room and saying hello and thank you to everyone. So in addition to helping out on Thursdays you will be getting live political updates from the ground and from Washington, DC.
To prep for tonight watch my interview with George. You can learn more about him, donate or volunteer too. If you want to make a single donation to all 11 of our courageous candidates working to flip the House this November you can do that here. I’m excited to announce that we have now raised more than $1 million for our House candidates since we began this campaign to help take back the House a few months ago. Thank you all. Time and again when the Hopium community is called, you have answered, powerfully.
A full schedule of all our upcoming Thursday events with links to register is now up here on the Hopium site. Here it is:
9/12 - Mondaire Jones (NY-17) - Register here
9/19 - Rudy Salas (CA-22) - Register here
9/26 - Laura Gillen (NY-04) - Register here
10/3 - Adam Gray (CA-13) - Register here
10/10 - Sue Altman (NY-07) - Register here
10/17 - Tony Vargas (NE-02) - Register here
These Thursday night events have become really fun, a great way to hangout each week, and we get a lot of work done. Hope you will join us this week and take one more action to ensure Hakeem Jeffries is the one standing behind President Kamala Harris when she gives her first State of the Union Address next year.
Supporting Hopium-backed Candidates and State Parties, Working From Joy - In the spirit of not letting up, “doing something” as Michelle Obama said and leaving it all on the playing field as Gov Walz has encouraged, I again make my pitch for the candidates and state parties we’ve been working for this year. A week ago Saturday I offered an in-depth post on the strategy behind our candidate and state party endorsements, including our Presidential battleground “check” and “checkmate” strategy. 15 days to go before early in voting begins everybody - time to get to work!
Harris-Walz!!!!!! - $936,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Merch | The Harris-Walz YouTube Channel - Let’s get to $1m people!
Winning The House - $998,000 raised, $1m goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Sign Up For Our Thursday Night Calling and Postcarding. Watch our recent discussion with Leader Hakeem Jeffries. To go deeper watch one of our interviews with our great candidates - Janelle Bynum (OR-5), George Whitesides (CA-27), Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) Will Rollins (CA-41), Laura Gillen (NY-04), Rudy Salas (CA-22), Josh Riley (NY-19), Tony Vargas (NE-02), Adam Gray (CA-13), Sue Altman (NJ-07) and Mondaire Jones (NY-17).
North Carolina - $435,000 raised, $500,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton
Arizona/Ruben Gallego - $343,000 rised, $400,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with Ruben Gallego
Nebraska/Blue Dot - $156,000 raised, $175,000 goal- Donate | Volunteer | Learn More | Be sure to watch my interview with NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb
Here are ways you can do even more:
Commit to Vote on Day 1 and get everyone you know to join you. Early voting begins in three states on September 20th - just 15 days away!
Watch my With Dems presentation on the greatness and goodness of the Democratic Party and this six minute video on the incredible stakes in this election. Also catch the first episode of my new Closing Strong election series with Tara McGowan. In this episode we talk to Anderson Clayton and Makena Kelly of Wired. Proud of this new series and hope you will check it out.
Help grow the Hopium community. Use this link to encourage others sign others up. You can gift a subscription to a friend or student here and get group rates too. If you have changed credit cards or moved you can you update your payment information or check your renewal status follow these instructions from Substack. Let’s keep our community growing the Hopium flowing!
Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon
Why The Data Makes Us Optimistic - My New Video With Tom Bonier, Winning The House Thursday Tonight With George Whitesides - Join Us!