Joe Biden continues to have amazing success by overseeing the most secure job market for workers this century. Biden continues to hold the lowest number of Layoffs and Discharges since record keeping began.
Biden has now over seen 30.6 million fewer layoffs to this point in their presidency's than Trump!
Has 2 siblings who are MAGATs. Her late sister in law, Judy, my former colleague, would not be one... Graduate of an all Catholic girls school., and Catholic U..
Thank her! Please ask her to endorse FT6. X: @maureendowd
I think the spotlight on Trump's weakness is the opportunity to start chipping away at some of his perceived strengths. BORDER: I think Biden's executive action on the border is smart and he can use it in the debate. I don't think explaining how Trump torpedoed a bipartisan border bill will be all that helpful in convincing non-MAGA voters who have some unfounded trust in the GOP when it comes to the border because Trump can just lie and say that the bill was full of all sorts of terrible things (like free money for Mexican gangsters deducted from the taxes of white suburban voters) and no one in the media will correct him. But Biden should just keep saying, "You promised you'd build a wall and Mexico would pay for it and you failed. You failed even with a GOP majority in both houses. Your failure on the border was the biggest in history. Unlike you, I'm taking action, etc." ECONOMY: Biden should point to falling crude oil prices and increased US oil production, and should absolutely take credit for the summer discounts recently announced by retailers. Also, "If you want a glimpse of the future of the US economy under convicted felon Donald Trump, look at the stock price of Truth Social." Finally, he should also ask voters to look at the GOP platform, which is nothing but a demand for absolute obedience to Donald Trump and ask if they see themselves and their families in that platform. To reach undecided voters who think Trump is awful but may vote for him, we need to show how his loathsomeness would translate into actual consequences if he were elected: "The White House cannot become a get-out-of-jail free card." Or, my favorite, "A vote for Trump is a vote for chaos, corruption, and criminality."
I called and they said "we are waiting to see how many people voted in the primary and a few counties haven't reported in yet. Whe they do the site will be back up, probably this week or next." Seems odd to me nothing is on the web about this. You have to call and ask.
While some are bemoaning the apparently large donations total for Trump after his conviction, my wife and I are wondering if this might bode well for reduced funds for Republican campaigns - these new donations will likely largely go for legal expenses, and much of it comes from donors who don't have the money to support both Trump's defense and Republican campaigns. And Lara Trump at the RNC will also focus on Trump's defense. I think support for candidates like Lake in AZ will wither. And just focusing on Trump's legal defense is a real long shot move. As Simon says, I like our chances better.
Another goal for a second Biden term...if we keep the Senate and win the House (we will!), DC must become a state. It's long overdue to give representation to 750,000 Americans who have no voice in congress.
Great post! Per the Atlantic piece (and other coverage of the conviction), I find the unwillingness of so many on our side to state the obvious that - yes - Donald Trump being convicted as a felon will be hugely significant in this election because it has already moved enough swing voters away from Trump. The polling of the response post verdict exceeds that of the pre polling (where a meaningful slice of swing voters expressed that they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted. We don’t need to win a huge swing with all voters - just with “The double haters.” And, yet, we have so many on our side ready/eager to say “it doesn’t matter, nothing matters.” Thank heavens for Simon and also for the Bulwark and Never Trumpers who seem the only group on our side to be ready to push back and fight hard. I just listened to Pod Save America on the polls and the episode should be titled “why we’ve decided to obey in advance/we think out job is to make snide remarks about Trump.” We need more fighting democrats! I guess that what we here at Hopium have to become. Yes, we could be very wrong about the numbers - although we are not - but even if we were, what is the benefit of just doing nothing but tut tutting about how terrible the situation is…. Ugh.
tl;dr: Approval ratings are close to useless in 2024 - at the least they cannot be compared to any time before 2016.
Something to remember about approval ratings: they're just poll numbers but asking a different question. If a poll is slanted toward Trump in the horserace, it's also slanted against Biden in approval rating (the May Gallup approval poll was 31R/39I/29D).
Another key point about approval ratings: they're HEAVILY impacted by partisanship. Compare Gallup's numbers for Obama for late May 2012 with Biden's from last week:
If Obama had only had 2% approval from Republicans he'd have been at 41% not 46%. Assume a 30/40/30 poll: Biden would need 50% approval with Independents to clear 45%. To reach 50% approval, he'd need to be at 62% with Independents. No president seeking re-election under these conditions will EVER exceed the low 40s in approval.
This is one reason why (IMO) Biden's approval never improves despite his accomplishments; why he performed in line with Obama and Clinton in the primaries (and didn't draw a challenger); and why Democrats keep overperforming despite Biden's approval rating.
P.S. Trump's approval rating throughout 2020 was highly variable because of COVID, but he actually exceeded 10% with Democrats for 3 of Gallup's two-week periods and spent most of his Presidency in the high single-digits or low double-digits until the Pandemic really tanked it. Trump also had consistently 90%+ with Republicans, while both Biden and Obama hung out in the low 80% range. Another indication that Republican partisan extremism is really screwing with these numbers.
P.P.S. Not saying this happens in 2024, but something interesting happened to Obama's approval the instant we hit September. His approval with Independents rocketed up to 10 points upward, from 39-41 to high 40s, touching 50 (it was 51 at the election after being 39 in late August). His approval with Democrats improved by about 5 points, from the low-mid 80s to the high 80s-low 90s. When people start paying attention...
It's significant that there are fewer Republicans today than there were in Obama's day. The party has bled members, so, for instance, 10% of Republicans today means far fewer actual votes than 10% ten years ago, when there were more of them. Most of the former Republicans are Independents today.
Can you highlight some campaign actions that don't involve donations? We could do a targeted postcard campaign through Hopium on behalf of particular candidates with curated messaging.
I've made a recurring contribution to Biden/Harris and to NY19 Josh Riley, my district. As seniors on fixed income we can't do more - but we have free time to write postcards!
I want to think about this. You can volunteer directly to each state and candidate. But what do folks think of a weekly Hopium phone bank somewhere? 2-3 hours of calls to one of the races/states? I want to think about postcarding......
A suggestion list would be great – and we already have good recommendations from a number of Hopium commentators. Perhaps the natural and most effective choice is to team up with carefully-selected organizations that already do phone banks and postcarding?
I like the idea, especially living in Florida - I don’t like where the state is headed. I would love to broadcast Rubio’s comments that he made the other day comparing the CONVICTED FELON’s trial to the show trials in military revolutionary Cuba, to the Cuban Americans, specifically in Miami-Dade County. We can have Spanish speaking individuals constantly reminding them of this and how the convicted felon said out of his mouth that he wants to be a dictator on day one. We have to keep reminding people of this, so it’s ingrained in their brain.
Below is Simon’s list of House candidates. Activate America has postcarding opportunities for several of them. Clink on the Activate America link further down and the on a candidate’s name to get more info/sign-up.
Always appreciate the Hopium, literally and figuratively. Whenever my friends express crippling worry and anxiety, I refer them here AND I suggest they “organize not agonize!”
Simon, thank you for your hard work! I am wondering why we don't hear more about Early Voting -- September in some states? Are there bumper stickers to wake people up to early voting?
Simon, I would add to your list of things to do to clean up Washington that members of Congress (who have access to all kinds of information we don't have) and their family members should not be able to own individual stocks. It should outrage everyone that people can go to Washington as our elected representatives and make absolute fortunes out of it. That is not really public service, in my opinion, and I definitely know young people who list this as a top reason that they distrust government and politicians of both parties.
The Silent Majority out there IS way bigger than these loudmouth ignorant thugs. We WILL win in November, my hope is that it is a total blow-out in Congress as well as an even bigger popular and Electoral College win for Biden. I'm doing my part by explaining to the people I talk to politics about how important this election is, why Biden and the fed government has no control over food prices or the Fed Reserve, and that Biden has accomplished a lot more than the MSM is willing to give him credit for. I also talk about the huge disinformation propaganda all over social media from the GQP, Russia, and China and have my huge magnetic Biden/Harris 2024 Save Our Democracy bumper sticker on my whiteboard at work in my waiting room.
Please don't forget that it is Pride Month and support your LGBTQ+ community as best you can. I have small, hand-held, Straight Ally and Pride flags in my waiting room for clients to take home with them along with a big "Happy Pride 2024" on my whiteboard as well as a flag at home in my window next to my Biden/Harris 2024 Save our democracy bumper sticker. Also show your support by attending Pride events in your community and going to local drag shows to support the queens 🏳️🌈🌈🏳️⚧️❤️
Be positive in what you do, and anything you want will come to you.
Don't make the pressure make quit. Just hold your ground and you will conquer it.
MAGA, not so much.
Pretty pretty pretty good.
Joe Biden continues to have amazing success by overseeing the most secure job market for workers this century. Biden continues to hold the lowest number of Layoffs and Discharges since record keeping began.
Biden has now over seen 30.6 million fewer layoffs to this point in their presidency's than Trump!
Wow! Maureen Dowd pulls no punches in today’s NYT column on the SC.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/04/opinion/columnists/supreme-court-alito-flag.html
Has 2 siblings who are MAGATs. Her late sister in law, Judy, my former colleague, would not be one... Graduate of an all Catholic girls school., and Catholic U..
Thank her! Please ask her to endorse FT6. X: @maureendowd
Instagram: @nytimesdowd
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
I think the spotlight on Trump's weakness is the opportunity to start chipping away at some of his perceived strengths. BORDER: I think Biden's executive action on the border is smart and he can use it in the debate. I don't think explaining how Trump torpedoed a bipartisan border bill will be all that helpful in convincing non-MAGA voters who have some unfounded trust in the GOP when it comes to the border because Trump can just lie and say that the bill was full of all sorts of terrible things (like free money for Mexican gangsters deducted from the taxes of white suburban voters) and no one in the media will correct him. But Biden should just keep saying, "You promised you'd build a wall and Mexico would pay for it and you failed. You failed even with a GOP majority in both houses. Your failure on the border was the biggest in history. Unlike you, I'm taking action, etc." ECONOMY: Biden should point to falling crude oil prices and increased US oil production, and should absolutely take credit for the summer discounts recently announced by retailers. Also, "If you want a glimpse of the future of the US economy under convicted felon Donald Trump, look at the stock price of Truth Social." Finally, he should also ask voters to look at the GOP platform, which is nothing but a demand for absolute obedience to Donald Trump and ask if they see themselves and their families in that platform. To reach undecided voters who think Trump is awful but may vote for him, we need to show how his loathsomeness would translate into actual consequences if he were elected: "The White House cannot become a get-out-of-jail free card." Or, my favorite, "A vote for Trump is a vote for chaos, corruption, and criminality."
Vote on Day 1 question: Does anyone know why the PA online mail in ballot application is not available and hasn't been for over a month? https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/OnlineAbsenteeApplication/#/OnlineAbsenteeBegin
I called and they said "we are waiting to see how many people voted in the primary and a few counties haven't reported in yet. Whe they do the site will be back up, probably this week or next." Seems odd to me nothing is on the web about this. You have to call and ask.
While some are bemoaning the apparently large donations total for Trump after his conviction, my wife and I are wondering if this might bode well for reduced funds for Republican campaigns - these new donations will likely largely go for legal expenses, and much of it comes from donors who don't have the money to support both Trump's defense and Republican campaigns. And Lara Trump at the RNC will also focus on Trump's defense. I think support for candidates like Lake in AZ will wither. And just focusing on Trump's legal defense is a real long shot move. As Simon says, I like our chances better.
Another goal for a second Biden term...if we keep the Senate and win the House (we will!), DC must become a state. It's long overdue to give representation to 750,000 Americans who have no voice in congress.
Add Puerto Rico to that list, and I think you can make a compelling argument for the US Virgin Islands, and America Samoa.
Definitely – provided the people of Puerto RIco choose statehood.
I agree! Additionally, I hope we can pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, too!
Great post! Per the Atlantic piece (and other coverage of the conviction), I find the unwillingness of so many on our side to state the obvious that - yes - Donald Trump being convicted as a felon will be hugely significant in this election because it has already moved enough swing voters away from Trump. The polling of the response post verdict exceeds that of the pre polling (where a meaningful slice of swing voters expressed that they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted. We don’t need to win a huge swing with all voters - just with “The double haters.” And, yet, we have so many on our side ready/eager to say “it doesn’t matter, nothing matters.” Thank heavens for Simon and also for the Bulwark and Never Trumpers who seem the only group on our side to be ready to push back and fight hard. I just listened to Pod Save America on the polls and the episode should be titled “why we’ve decided to obey in advance/we think out job is to make snide remarks about Trump.” We need more fighting democrats! I guess that what we here at Hopium have to become. Yes, we could be very wrong about the numbers - although we are not - but even if we were, what is the benefit of just doing nothing but tut tutting about how terrible the situation is…. Ugh.
tl;dr: Approval ratings are close to useless in 2024 - at the least they cannot be compared to any time before 2016.
Something to remember about approval ratings: they're just poll numbers but asking a different question. If a poll is slanted toward Trump in the horserace, it's also slanted against Biden in approval rating (the May Gallup approval poll was 31R/39I/29D).
Another key point about approval ratings: they're HEAVILY impacted by partisanship. Compare Gallup's numbers for Obama for late May 2012 with Biden's from last week:
Obama: 81% among D; 41% among I; 15% among R https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx
Biden: 82% among D; 34% among I; 2% among R https://news.gallup.com/poll/329384/presidential-approval-ratings-joe-biden.aspx
If Obama had only had 2% approval from Republicans he'd have been at 41% not 46%. Assume a 30/40/30 poll: Biden would need 50% approval with Independents to clear 45%. To reach 50% approval, he'd need to be at 62% with Independents. No president seeking re-election under these conditions will EVER exceed the low 40s in approval.
This is one reason why (IMO) Biden's approval never improves despite his accomplishments; why he performed in line with Obama and Clinton in the primaries (and didn't draw a challenger); and why Democrats keep overperforming despite Biden's approval rating.
P.S. Trump's approval rating throughout 2020 was highly variable because of COVID, but he actually exceeded 10% with Democrats for 3 of Gallup's two-week periods and spent most of his Presidency in the high single-digits or low double-digits until the Pandemic really tanked it. Trump also had consistently 90%+ with Republicans, while both Biden and Obama hung out in the low 80% range. Another indication that Republican partisan extremism is really screwing with these numbers.
P.P.S. Not saying this happens in 2024, but something interesting happened to Obama's approval the instant we hit September. His approval with Independents rocketed up to 10 points upward, from 39-41 to high 40s, touching 50 (it was 51 at the election after being 39 in late August). His approval with Democrats improved by about 5 points, from the low-mid 80s to the high 80s-low 90s. When people start paying attention...
It's significant that there are fewer Republicans today than there were in Obama's day. The party has bled members, so, for instance, 10% of Republicans today means far fewer actual votes than 10% ten years ago, when there were more of them. Most of the former Republicans are Independents today.
Sort of - there are also fewer Democrats today. Party affiliation jumps around a TON in Gallup, but...
Gallup from 2012: 31D/40I/28R
Gallup from April 2024: 27R/45I/25D
Can you highlight some campaign actions that don't involve donations? We could do a targeted postcard campaign through Hopium on behalf of particular candidates with curated messaging.
I've made a recurring contribution to Biden/Harris and to NY19 Josh Riley, my district. As seniors on fixed income we can't do more - but we have free time to write postcards!
Lynne, try this. They will send you postcards fir swing states. You just have to buy the stamps! https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/
Yes, FREE postcards and beautiful designs !💙
Thank you! I just ordered some. 💪💙
I just ordered some postcards too!
Thank you! 😊
Yes, they will promptly send you the postcards and instructions. You provide the stamps. Simple!
I want to think about this. You can volunteer directly to each state and candidate. But what do folks think of a weekly Hopium phone bank somewhere? 2-3 hours of calls to one of the races/states? I want to think about postcarding......
Guidance on most effective actions is appreciated.
It’s a powerful draw to do something in community with others…. I feel this would increase participation from HC members
A suggestion list would be great – and we already have good recommendations from a number of Hopium commentators. Perhaps the natural and most effective choice is to team up with carefully-selected organizations that already do phone banks and postcarding?
Would love to do phone banking as a group!
I like the idea, especially living in Florida - I don’t like where the state is headed. I would love to broadcast Rubio’s comments that he made the other day comparing the CONVICTED FELON’s trial to the show trials in military revolutionary Cuba, to the Cuban Americans, specifically in Miami-Dade County. We can have Spanish speaking individuals constantly reminding them of this and how the convicted felon said out of his mouth that he wants to be a dictator on day one. We have to keep reminding people of this, so it’s ingrained in their brain.
Lynne,
Below is Simon’s list of House candidates. Activate America has postcarding opportunities for several of them. Clink on the Activate America link further down and the on a candidate’s name to get more info/sign-up.
Andrei Cherny, AZ-01
Kirsten Engel, AZ-06
Adam Gray, CA-13
Rudy Salas, CA-22
George Whitesides, CA-27
Will Rollins, CA-41
Tony Vargas, NE-02
Sue Altman, NJ-07
Laura Gillen, NY-04
Mondaire Jones, NY-17
Josh Riley, NY-19
Janelle Bynum, OR-5
Activate America⬇️
https://www.activateamerica.vote/ourraces2024
If you have a computer., you can also do BYOP texting with Field Team 6. They have weekly trainings, and it's all free https://www.fieldteam6.org/free-byop-textbanks.
Our local county democractic party had me order 3000 (500) per swing state. It's going to be a collective event!
Always appreciate the Hopium, literally and figuratively. Whenever my friends express crippling worry and anxiety, I refer them here AND I suggest they “organize not agonize!”
I like that motto!
Credit to Speaker Pelosi!!
Simon, thank you for your hard work! I am wondering why we don't hear more about Early Voting -- September in some states? Are there bumper stickers to wake people up to early voting?
Simon, I would add to your list of things to do to clean up Washington that members of Congress (who have access to all kinds of information we don't have) and their family members should not be able to own individual stocks. It should outrage everyone that people can go to Washington as our elected representatives and make absolute fortunes out of it. That is not really public service, in my opinion, and I definitely know young people who list this as a top reason that they distrust government and politicians of both parties.
Thanks Simon. This was very uplifting to read today. I needed that!
I plan to be there in Seattle with my husband June 11 to celebrate Luis’ new book RELENTLESS!
The Silent Majority out there IS way bigger than these loudmouth ignorant thugs. We WILL win in November, my hope is that it is a total blow-out in Congress as well as an even bigger popular and Electoral College win for Biden. I'm doing my part by explaining to the people I talk to politics about how important this election is, why Biden and the fed government has no control over food prices or the Fed Reserve, and that Biden has accomplished a lot more than the MSM is willing to give him credit for. I also talk about the huge disinformation propaganda all over social media from the GQP, Russia, and China and have my huge magnetic Biden/Harris 2024 Save Our Democracy bumper sticker on my whiteboard at work in my waiting room.
Please don't forget that it is Pride Month and support your LGBTQ+ community as best you can. I have small, hand-held, Straight Ally and Pride flags in my waiting room for clients to take home with them along with a big "Happy Pride 2024" on my whiteboard as well as a flag at home in my window next to my Biden/Harris 2024 Save our democracy bumper sticker. Also show your support by attending Pride events in your community and going to local drag shows to support the queens 🏳️🌈🌈🏳️⚧️❤️
Well ,trump and his merry gang want to take control of the Fed too, if elected.