Why I Am Optimistic, Reform and Renewal, Making June Count

Paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm ET! June events in Seattle, Madison (WI) and Northern Virginia

Happy Tuesday all. Got a few things for you today:

Why I Am Optimistic About Winning This November - Ron Brownstein has a smart, new look at recent polling on the CNN site today that I recommend to everyone. Here’s my part:

Longtime Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg sees the race in almost exactly the opposite terms. Rosenberg, who was the most prominent Democrat predicting that the widely anticipated red wave would fizzle in 2022, believes the vulnerabilities of Trump and his MAGA movement are so insurmountable that they eventually will overwhelm voters’ doubts about Biden.

Rosenberg leans heavily on the precedent of 2022. Though Republicans rolled to big victories in red-leaning states, he noted, Democrats vastly exceeded expectations by winning the gubernatorial races in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and the Senate races in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Those victories, he said, have created a template for Democrats to exploit the resistance to Trump’s agenda in enough swing states to reach 270 Electoral College votes this year.

“We know what happens when we go in with lots of money and a big campaign and talk about MAGA to swing-state voters: We win and they lose,” he said. “If MAGA in 2024 is even more extreme and more dangerous … that is just the more likely scenario of what happens then the alternative.”

Rosenberg would prefer if more voters held positive views about Biden, but he insists it’s not necessary for the president to win because the “constant dynamic” in our politics since 2018 has become opposition to Trump and MAGA. “Who the Democratic candidate is to some degree immaterial,” Rosenberg said. “Because this has been a pattern that has repeated again and again and again” in the statewide races across the battlegrounds “regardless of who the Democratic candidate has been.”

This passage gets to the core of my theory of the 2024 election - that since Dobbs, we keep overperforming, they keep struggling for fear and opposition to MAGA has been and remains the most powerful force in our politics today - as it should be. That when our muscular campaigns put the choice of good, pragmatic Dems vs. extremist, dangerous MAGA in front of voters we win, they lose.

As we discussed last week we are already seeing this dynamic play out in 2024 too. Democrats have exceeded expectations in special elections across the country, including in the big NY-3 Suozzi win. Trump has underperformed polling and expectations in the early primary states - when actual people vote MAGA struggles. We see it in the encouraging polling for Democrats in Senate and House races and in the debilitating GOP “bad candidate” and “bad party” problems - particularly Kari Lake and Mark Robinson - in the battlegrounds. We see it in the huge cash-on-hand advantages and organizational Democrats have right now across the country in federal races of all kinds. We see it in the advantages Democrats have with likely, more informed voters in current polling.

My optimism comes down to a belief informed by decades of experience and loads and loads of data that when the voters in the battleground states, voters who understand and have voted against MAGA repeatedly, come to understand The Choice they will break towards Biden. Trump is a far uglier candidate than he was in 2020, and his ugliness, extremism, and depravity will weigh him down as it has other MAGA candidates since Dobbs. The Rs have bet on a rapist, fraudster, traitor and felon - it’s a bet I will take every day of the week for all time.

My optimism also comes from a belief that Joe Biden is a good President, the country is better off, that due to the success of his Presidency GOP attacks against him are evaporating and losing their potency, and that we have a very strong case to make to battleground voters in the coming months. We know from polling that voters do not have a deep understanding of the good Biden has done, and when informed his numbers improve. This notion that he is stuck and cannot improve his standing is something I deeply disagree with. We not only know this from public and private research but let’s return to what may be the most important chart in our politics today, the WSJ chart which shows that voters in the battleground believe things are much better in their states:

Making the connection to things being better in their states and what we’ve done to bring that about is something we should be able to do. Helping the campaign make that case will be Democratic governors in 5 of the 7 battlegrounds; Labor’s unprecedented investment in MI/NV/PA/WI; our winning Senate and House campaigns; Barack Obama and other Democratic surrogates; prominent Republicans who have joined our cause and are helping us win; and finally, perhaps most important of all, Biden will be bolstered in the battlegrounds by all the work we are all going to do as together we build the most powerful Democratic political machine we’ve ever had.

All of this is why we are working to make June count. Lots of people are waking up to the election now and we need to put The Choice in front of them. Our donations are helping the campaigns get louder and tell their story. Our volunteering is helping these campaigns tell their story at this critical moment. Our spreading good news about Biden and the ugly reality of Trump 2024 is helping inform communities who need more information. To be very clear everyone - our victory this November is not guaranteed, but I believe it is likely. I am optimistic because as we’ve done in all these other elections in recent years when we’ve gone to work we win. And that’s why we all need to make June count. It is an essential piece of how we win this November.

Making June Count - The Hopium community is bringing it and making June count! Together we’ve raised over $350,000 for our candidates and states in the last 2 weeks! Incredible stuff, thank you all. Here’s a fundraising update with progress toward our June 30th goals:

• Biden Harris - goal of $400,000 - at $336,000 today - donate now

• Winning The House - goal of $300,000 - at $233,00 today - donate now

• Arizona/Ruben Gallego - goal of $300,000 - at $175,000 today - donate now

• North Carolina - goal $300,000 - at $227,000 today - donate now

• Nebraska/Blue Dot - goal of $100,000 - at $26,000 today - donate now

You can use this link to learn more about our candidates and states, including how to volunteer, and this one will help you get to know our 12 intrepid House candidates. Thanks all. This is a huge month and we just need to leave it all out there on the playing field.

As a token of my gratitude for all that you are doing, I am now offering a 10% discount on annual paid subscriptions for new subscribers through the end of the month. Click on this link to subscribe today. I hope we will get to 10,000 paid subscribers by June 30th - we are over 8,900 today - which will put Hopium in a financial place to end this election strong. People subscribing today or tomorrow will be eligible to join our June paid subscriber gathering tonight at 7pm ET or our Founding Members get-together tomorrow.

Democrats Need A Big Reform and Renewal Agenda - In my recent New Republic essay I wrote that Democrats should develop and campaign on a clear agenda to strengthen our democracy and tackle the corruption and rot (Thomas, Alito) that has overrun our Capital:

If the primary job of the first term was about successfully getting America to the other side of Covid, the second term should be about mobilizing unprecedented resources around tackling the next two existential challenges of our time–countering climate change and accelerating the energy transition from fossil fuels, and ensuring that freedom and democracy prevail here in the United States and everywhere.

The president should talk directly and forcefully to the American people about the existential nature of these dual challenges, particularly the rise of what is perhaps the most serious threat we’ve ever seen to the American-led, rules-based order; and he should prepare Americans for what could be years or even decades of hot and cold conflict with authoritarians at home and abroad. The president began that process this year with his compelling speech near Valley Forge in early January.

As part that mobilization, we will need to keep our economy strong and prosperous, persistently proving that democratic capitalism remains the best system for human advancement; develop a long overdue national strategy to restore integrity to our daily discourse, making it far harder for authoritarian forces to manipulate and control speech in open societies; build greater governmentwide institutional capacity to advance pro-democracy initiatives here and across the world; and be direct in asking the American people, as President Kennedy once did, to become active partners in ensuring we prevail in these deeply consequential struggles in the coming decades….

…..The president should commit to making progress in at least two other areas during his second term—cleaning up a city and a democracy that have been weakened by corruption and illiberalism of all kinds, and raising American life expectancy so it is again at the level of peer nations’.

I think Joe Biden should promise to clean up the city he has so long been a part of. Among the things we can tackle are the influence of foreign money, the need to raise ethical standards at the Supreme Court, eliminating the debt ceiling and the ability to shut down the government, and the wild abuse of Senate holds on nominations. Perhaps Biden could set up a commission to make broader recommendations on how to modernize and reform a city desperately in need of it.

Such an agenda is not just needed and necessary, but we know from polling that tackling “political corruption” is a high priority for two of our most important target groups - independents and young people. If President Biden were to lead the charge it would be a way of taking his many years here - experience, wisdom, understanding of how DC works - and turning the issue of his age into a powerful weapon against the Republicans.

June Events, Hopium Hits The Road - Have added some new events to the schedule - check ‘em out! Looking forward to seeing our paid subscribers tonight and for those who can’t make it live a recording of our discussion will be shared here tomorrow. Note there is an “Upcoming Events” tab on the Hopium website’s navigation bar where you can always find our latest schedule.

Tue, June 4, 7pm ET - Monthly Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together - Learn more, register here. See everyone soon!

Wed, June 5, 1pm ET - Monthly Hopium Founding Members Get Together

Tue, June 11, 230pm PT - I’ll be in Seattle, Washington for a conversation with Luis Miranda and Pearl Jam’s Stone Gossard to celebrate Luis’ new book RELENTLESS: My Story of the Latino Spirit That Is Transforming America. The event will take place at El Centro de la Raza’s Centilia Cultural Center, 1660 S Plaza Roberto Maestas Festival Street in Seattle. It’s free and open to the public and after the event concludes there will be a small gathering for Hopium Chronicles subscribers. Learn more and register here.

Thur, June 20, 5pm CT - I’ll be in Madison, Wisconsin for an in-person at a Wisconsin Democratic Party Fundraising event with the great WI Dem Chair Ben Wikler. Please register and donate here. Excited to be heading back into the 2024 battleground!

Tues, June 25, 730pm ET - The monthly Zoom gathering of the entire Hopium Chronicles community. Register here.

Thur, June 27 - 1st Presidential Debate on CNN

Sat, June 29 - I’ll be speaking in person at Network NOVA’s 8th Annual Women’s Summit in Tyson’s Corner, VA - More info, register. One of my favorite events of the year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sun, June 30 - Last day to Make June Count!

Keep working hard all, and together, let’s make June count!!!!! - Simon