I am concerned about this too. I am asked by neighbors about who can beat him, Trone or Alsobrooks. I support Alsobrooks. The question I am asked is, Can she win?
It is disgusting that Hogan would do this. Maryland is a bizarre place, they try so hard to be middle of the road and are completely fooled by Hogan being a "moderate". He's as bad as the rest of the GOP.
Consensus view in DC is that whomever wins the primary for us should win. With Biden at top and MD's new dynamic Gov Wes Moore working it we should prevail. But like with everything there is work to do in front of us.
I would distinguish between Hogan as governor and Hogan as Senator. There is precedent in several blue states to pick a Republican governor so that there is not control of state government by an entrenched party. This makes some sense. This logic does not apply to the Senate. So my thought is that those who might have supported Hogan as governor are not necessarily going to carry that over to the Senate. It means, though, that Marylanders are going to have to dedicate some energy to GOTV in Maryland. It should not be difficult but it will require some effort.
Maryland has literally not elected a Republican to the Senate since Charles Mathias (Looked him up!) in 1969. He retired in 1988. Think about it. *1969*. That’s how long a streak Hogan would have to break. Mathias was a very liberal Republican at that; he expressed dismay at how far right the party was going in the 80’s, so he’d probably be some kind of Chris Coons-ish Democrat if he was running now.
If MD has not elected a Republican since 1969, I don’t think they are going to brake that streak.
I grew up in MD, and the other thing to keep in mind is where all the Democratic pockets are located, See this Politico article from 2020 and check out the map to see where Biden was strongest:
NOTE: For non-Marylanders, If you hover over a county on the map, the county name will pop up.
Alsobrooks is from Prince George's County which is the most Democratic-leaning county in the state with just under 90% voting for Biden. Neighboring Montgomery County had more votes for Biden because of the higher population, but a slightly lower vote percentage (79.2%).
I eyeballed Trone's district on Ballotpedia and it appears to include part of Montgomery County, Frederick County, and everything to the west which is far less populous and a lot more red.
Trone does have the advantage of being able to self-fund.
David Trone’s campaign was just compelled to scrub an attack ad on Angela Alsobrooks. Why? The attack ad stated "The U.S. Senate is not a place for training wheels."
That’s incredibly dismissive and unnecessarily disparaging against a fellow Democrat, as well as borderline misogynistic and easily seen as racist – something that the 650 Black women who wrote to Trone’s campaign to object most certainly did.
To me (admittedly a non-Marylander), such clumsy fumbling calls into question David Trone’s political judgement.
I 100% agree it was a shitty (and racist and sexist) thing for Trone to say, because it’s not true! Alsobrooks has served in local politics for some time! She was attorney for Prince George’s County for two terms before she became county executive. This does call Trone’s judgment into question, and it doesn’t exactly counteract the “he’s trying to buy his seat” mutterings.
Alsobrooks also (ahem) has racked up quite the list of endorsements, including some very heavy hitters, like Wes Moore, Patty Murray, Kirsten Gillibrand, Raphael Warnock, and Cory Booker: https://www.angelaalsobrooks.com/endorsements
That’s a lot more than Trone has garnered. The Governor of your state and the President Pro Tempore of the US Senate are hardly chicken feed. I’m not in Maryland so I don’t have much say, but I’m pulling for Alsobrooks simply because I don’t think so many politicians I respect would endorse her if she wasn’t any good.
Great Piece as always. We are certainly doing our share here in Florida.
A group of Activists in Florida - NO NAME GROUP - have been recruiting candidates to run in every State House and Senate district as we did in Nov 2020. Running candidates in all districts ensures that everyone has a candidate to vote for at the BOTTOM of the ballot. We want to ensure LARGE voter turnout in Florida to help Biden, Mucarsel Powell, pass State Amendments like #4 -Womens Reproductive Rights and more. We don't expect to beat Trump... BUT you never know!
We set out to fill about 45 seats and have filled about 30 of them. We still need a few more candidates to run, so if you live in Florida and want to help, please be in touch.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, yesterday abortion was all over the local news...except for the Miami Herald, Spanish language El Herald and las noticias.
In honor of the event, FB6, Fladems and partner groups sent 100,000 texts to nonregistered Floridians re abortion.
We are down 1 mil registrations vs Republicans but there are 343,932 minor party members and 3,533,149 who are registered "no party."
FT 6 has added Florida to its targeted states. Besides abortion, marijuana is on the ballot. FT 6 has a dedicated database and uses every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), to target new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts.
People asked whether we know that FB6 is picking up voters. Sometimes they reply. In Florida, can tell whether someone has registered. FB6 uses several methods to follow-up. Postcards. Letters. Phone calls. Canvassing.
I do BYOP with FT6 every day. It's free and you can reach out and help register people to vote in key states, including Florida. It's a great, easy option to help.
Someone needs to do targeted ads to FL seniors about Project 2025's plans to cut "entitlements" (as the GOP refers to them) like Social Security and Medicare.
This year, Florida has a Democratic candidate in every Congressional race. You may think this would be a given, but sadly it is not. Apparently, the last time this happened was in 2018.
Margie, I am so glad to see you are working to ensure this is also the case for the Florida Senate and Florida State House.
Democrats should never fail to have a candidate – never concede an election in advance!
Patt, I am curious - who is going to be in charge of elections in Maricopa, Arizona’s largest county? I know the MAGA crowd has been trying to put in place an election denier, but hopefully it will be someone fair and sensible. That really, really matters!
Surprised that the only mention of unions was concerning NV's culinary union; would have thought the discussion around PA/MI/WI would have mentioned the support from UAW, USW, NABTU, SEIU and the potential for Teamsters.
I just clicked through and gave $25 each to the North Carolina and Gallego links in your post. I’m glad to do what I can. Your hard work and enthusiasm are greatly appreciated and I am happy to be a small part of it.
It's the largest sample poll released in recent weeks so the demo breakouts can be trusted more than 800-1200 sample polls which have had in recent weeks - CNN poll best example - wild and crazy demo break outs. Folks ask me all the time about what's happening with young people and people of color and I feel like this is probably the single best poll we have right now to go deeper on the state of our coalition itself. In general its very risky to pay attention to demo/subgroup breakouts in these lower sample national polls.
Simon, I listened to the Bulwark podcast when you were the guest. Loved hearing what you had to say. Excellent podcast and feel good about taking the time to listen to you. Thanks!
Please explain to this non-statitician how these polls are conducted. I assume they are primarily done by phone. I remember in past years calls were made exclusively to landline numbers, which over represented an older demographic. Even if calls are now made to cell phones, who in this day and age answers an unidentified phone number (unless you’re waiting for the cable guy to call to tell you he’s 15 minutes away)? So, are the people responding to these phone polls just the ding-a-lings that answer any and all phone calls? Perhaps the pollsters are getting good samples of the electorate, but I’m skeptical.
Ann, I do a fair amount of GOTV phonebanking. Some people do answer their phones. No,they are not “ding-a-lings”. Yes, some are uninterested while others are grateful for the information and I’ve truly never had a nasty response.
Here is the methodology for the Pew poll.
“A total of 8,709 panelists responded out of 9,527 who were sampled, for a response rate of 91%. “
I have never said ignore polls. What I say, and say in this presentation and all of my presentations, is that polls are only piece of the information available to us. And that the polls were likely to get better for us as the electorate checked in, which is happening now. Is it enough to win? No way of knowing. We have six months of work ahead of us.
I also want to say that we have a "no jerks" rule here, and work very hard to keep all of our comments respectful and informed. This one from you was on the edge.
Sorry, didn't mean to seem jerkish. Lack of voice inflection sometimes trips me up. I don't trust polls because all of them are conducted by people, and as you pointed out, some have agendas.
.
And if things are looking too good, I'm afraid a number of folks will stay home because "ah, things are looking good and I'm just one vote that doesn't matter anyway."
Simon, thank you for discussing the many ramifications of the current protests at colleges. I’ve struggled to understand what is happening and to interpret the viewpoints being expressed by the protesters as well as their actions. Your perspective was very helpful to me and very appropriate for this community to seriously consider going forward.
I just listened to this recent talk by Heather Cox Richardson. She talks about the protests from the personification a political historian and a college professor. Well worth your time.
Not sure where exactly this topic is in the video, but it’s not at the beginning.
Little late here. I really appreciated your comments about the protests. I am going to share with a few people. If nothing else, I will say please listen to the last ten minutes. I wish more of our surrogates were as measured and fair as you are on this very complicated, layered and unfortunately divisive issue. Thank you.
All your points last night were rock solid, Simon. I would add that your reference to a potential large Biden win is particularly significant because of its impact on down ballot races.
Keeping the Senate and regaining the House would make a second term incredibly easier.
The Hispanic drop off? Hispanics need to know about Trumps plan to round up 12 million Hispanics for encampments along the border on the way to deportation.
Yes I've never believed that the R to break through to people of color would be the most extreme racist and xenophobe in modern times....we have a lot to work with, and should make gains here.
Agree. I’ve long been fascinated with demographics and keep track of a metric no one seems to measure. We now see about 90,000 more Texas “whites” die each year than Texas Hispanics. That differential increases each year and adds up to a huge aggregate number over a decade.
There’s a reason Texas GOPers make it hard to vote.
Amigo - Remember to approach Hispanic Americans as whole Americans with the whole diverse set of life concerns, not just immigration concerns. The round up/encampments issue sure will be particularly insulting to your average/median hispanic American, more than to a white or black American named Johnson or Jones - but it can and should outrage all Americans with a heart. But as a tailored pitch, it is not of special meaning or threat to, for example, Puerto Rican Americans or Cuban Americans, or New Mexican Hispanos. But Honduran, Salvadoran, recent south Mexican, Venezuelan Americans could very much have reason to feel like people they know or love are threatened by Trump's immigration plans. There really is no average hispanic in America. Hispanics care about jobs, education, and health care like everybody else. Bernie connected pretty well with the hispanic audience on the level of being pro-jobs, pro worker, pro fair wages. Past slippage - and we still always got majorities of hispanic communities except for Cubans and traditional Texas communities, likely had more to do with our restraint on canvassing, lack of spreading the word well bilingually, and us being seen as the party of work shutdowns. We show we are Mejor por los obreros - better for the workers and Mejor por los ninos - better for the kids we should improve performance.
agree with all this. I led the very first national Spanish language media campaign ever produced by Dems in 2004 and our tag line, I think, was "Con los demócratas una vida mejor." I will dig up some of those ads and share them in the coming weeks.
Gracias Simon- glad to be helpful, and trying to avoid making any comments that are too "picante" around here. :)
Any recommendations on what any of us can do to help Sherrod Brown, besides give his campaign money (check!) and move to Ohio? [umm, haven't done that and not planning on it]? The guy to me seems to be the perfect model of what Democratic Senator for the working man in a red state should be. One would have wished Joe Manchin had been more like him, or Evan Bayh, back in the day. He matches his tone and style to his state, but remains caucus and party loyal. He's defended himself well enough to the home audience last time around. This time around he's got tough, well-funded challenge as the Ohio public seems to deepen its epistemic closure. [too many right-minded still moving out?]
...just to be clear - right-minded leads to blue-voting... :) The "right" in that sentence isn't that other kind of "right" that is used as an adjective in front of a wing.
Absolutely. Hispanics do not constitute a monolithic group. So, generally speaking and referencing Hispanic Texans in particular.
The highway construction industry is huge in Texas. TxDOT lets roughly $13 billion a year in contracts. About 85 percent of the highway construction workforce is Hispanic. High paying construction jobs. 87 percent of congressional GOPers voted against Biden’s infrastructure bill - simply to vote against Biden instead of for Hispanic construction workers.
Texas GOPers passed a harsh voter photo ID law a few years ago. More than 600,000 Texans were disenfranchised because they could no longer vote because they didn’t own vehicles and, thus, had no drivers license. Most were Hispanic Texans.
Texas GOPers are always trying to pass “show me your papers” legislation. Do you think cops are more likely to pull over a “Scharrer” or a “Rodriguez”?
Statistics before Dobbs showed Texas Hispanics accessed abortion more than any other demographic group … 39 percent of Texas abortions involved Latinas v 27 percent for whites. Medical necessary abortions are nearly impossible for Texans.
What do low income Texas Hispanics do when they need to access abortion services?
Texas has more uninsured children than any other state. Most of those kids are Hispanic. GOP policies harm most Hispanics… but many don’t realize the reality.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea we have a separate agenda, as do the PR concurrent majority in central Florida. One size does not fit all and all politics are local. What is said in the southwest does not work here. I've been trying to express this -- but all I get is crickets. BTW besides being the "Trump hates dogs" and the flip the Amish guy, I'm also author of Breaking Up with Cuba (2010) and a novel, Miami '90. Although we have a Democratic majority in Miami Dade county, we have three (3) MAGAT Batisianos representing us. IMHO we may be able to register 100,000 new Dems in this county. But still, even if Dem, about 20% vote antiCuba or antiVenezuela or proColombia first, individual interest second. I don't know how abortion and marijuana will affect their mistrust of Democrats.
As a Hispanic myself, I completely agree. We are not a monolithic group. Also varies state by state, age, first versus second generation, etc. Si se Puede!
Just curious if anyone knows about Spanish language postcard campaigns happening or planned? I have been working on a few campaigns and haven’t seen any yet.
Please give us your take on Maryland. Larry Hogan has deplorably thrown this race into question.
I am concerned about this too. I am asked by neighbors about who can beat him, Trone or Alsobrooks. I support Alsobrooks. The question I am asked is, Can she win?
It is disgusting that Hogan would do this. Maryland is a bizarre place, they try so hard to be middle of the road and are completely fooled by Hogan being a "moderate". He's as bad as the rest of the GOP.
Consensus view in DC is that whomever wins the primary for us should win. With Biden at top and MD's new dynamic Gov Wes Moore working it we should prevail. But like with everything there is work to do in front of us.
Wow! That's amazing news. Thank you, Simon!
I would distinguish between Hogan as governor and Hogan as Senator. There is precedent in several blue states to pick a Republican governor so that there is not control of state government by an entrenched party. This makes some sense. This logic does not apply to the Senate. So my thought is that those who might have supported Hogan as governor are not necessarily going to carry that over to the Senate. It means, though, that Marylanders are going to have to dedicate some energy to GOTV in Maryland. It should not be difficult but it will require some effort.
Maryland has literally not elected a Republican to the Senate since Charles Mathias (Looked him up!) in 1969. He retired in 1988. Think about it. *1969*. That’s how long a streak Hogan would have to break. Mathias was a very liberal Republican at that; he expressed dismay at how far right the party was going in the 80’s, so he’d probably be some kind of Chris Coons-ish Democrat if he was running now.
If MD has not elected a Republican since 1969, I don’t think they are going to brake that streak.
I grew up in MD, and the other thing to keep in mind is where all the Democratic pockets are located, See this Politico article from 2020 and check out the map to see where Biden was strongest:
https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/maryland/
NOTE: For non-Marylanders, If you hover over a county on the map, the county name will pop up.
Alsobrooks is from Prince George's County which is the most Democratic-leaning county in the state with just under 90% voting for Biden. Neighboring Montgomery County had more votes for Biden because of the higher population, but a slightly lower vote percentage (79.2%).
I eyeballed Trone's district on Ballotpedia and it appears to include part of Montgomery County, Frederick County, and everything to the west which is far less populous and a lot more red.
Trone does have the advantage of being able to self-fund.
David Trone’s campaign was just compelled to scrub an attack ad on Angela Alsobrooks. Why? The attack ad stated "The U.S. Senate is not a place for training wheels."
That’s incredibly dismissive and unnecessarily disparaging against a fellow Democrat, as well as borderline misogynistic and easily seen as racist – something that the 650 Black women who wrote to Trone’s campaign to object most certainly did.
To me (admittedly a non-Marylander), such clumsy fumbling calls into question David Trone’s political judgement.
https://www.axios.com/2024/05/02/david-trone-training-wheels-ad-backlash
I 100% agree it was a shitty (and racist and sexist) thing for Trone to say, because it’s not true! Alsobrooks has served in local politics for some time! She was attorney for Prince George’s County for two terms before she became county executive. This does call Trone’s judgment into question, and it doesn’t exactly counteract the “he’s trying to buy his seat” mutterings.
Alsobrooks also (ahem) has racked up quite the list of endorsements, including some very heavy hitters, like Wes Moore, Patty Murray, Kirsten Gillibrand, Raphael Warnock, and Cory Booker: https://www.angelaalsobrooks.com/endorsements
That’s a lot more than Trone has garnered. The Governor of your state and the President Pro Tempore of the US Senate are hardly chicken feed. I’m not in Maryland so I don’t have much say, but I’m pulling for Alsobrooks simply because I don’t think so many politicians I respect would endorse her if she wasn’t any good.
Great Piece as always. We are certainly doing our share here in Florida.
A group of Activists in Florida - NO NAME GROUP - have been recruiting candidates to run in every State House and Senate district as we did in Nov 2020. Running candidates in all districts ensures that everyone has a candidate to vote for at the BOTTOM of the ballot. We want to ensure LARGE voter turnout in Florida to help Biden, Mucarsel Powell, pass State Amendments like #4 -Womens Reproductive Rights and more. We don't expect to beat Trump... BUT you never know!
We set out to fill about 45 seats and have filled about 30 of them. We still need a few more candidates to run, so if you live in Florida and want to help, please be in touch.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea, yesterday abortion was all over the local news...except for the Miami Herald, Spanish language El Herald and las noticias.
In honor of the event, FB6, Fladems and partner groups sent 100,000 texts to nonregistered Floridians re abortion.
We are down 1 mil registrations vs Republicans but there are 343,932 minor party members and 3,533,149 who are registered "no party."
FT 6 has added Florida to its targeted states. Besides abortion, marijuana is on the ballot. FT 6 has a dedicated database and uses every outreach method possible (phone and text, postcard, email and targeted ad, and in-person too), to target new Democratic voters will make the most impact – in the most flippable states and districts.
People asked whether we know that FB6 is picking up voters. Sometimes they reply. In Florida, can tell whether someone has registered. FB6 uses several methods to follow-up. Postcards. Letters. Phone calls. Canvassing.
Other groups do GOTV. https://ballotpedia.org/What_is_GOTV
People we contact thank us.
https://www.fieldteam6.org/
I do BYOP with FT6 every day. It's free and you can reach out and help register people to vote in key states, including Florida. It's a great, easy option to help.
How are things looking in Manatee County?
Not so good. In 2020 Trump got 57%
Republicans:127,761
Democrats:70,166
Others:72,246
28% receive SS retirement. Slit their own throats.
We need to add thousands and flip a lot of voters.
Someone needs to do targeted ads to FL seniors about Project 2025's plans to cut "entitlements" (as the GOP refers to them) like Social Security and Medicare.
Are there any Republicans running unopposed in the county?
This year, Florida has a Democratic candidate in every Congressional race. You may think this would be a given, but sadly it is not. Apparently, the last time this happened was in 2018.
Margie, I am so glad to see you are working to ensure this is also the case for the Florida Senate and Florida State House.
Democrats should never fail to have a candidate – never concede an election in advance!
You are doing the Lord's work. Blessings to you.
I'm an Arizonan. I'm not worried about AZ in November, but I worry about the other swing states and the college campus protests.
Biden’s Electoral College Challenge
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/05/bidens-electoral-college-problem/678260/
Patt, I am curious - who is going to be in charge of elections in Maricopa, Arizona’s largest county? I know the MAGA crowd has been trying to put in place an election denier, but hopefully it will be someone fair and sensible. That really, really matters!
Thanks for that question.
Stephen Richer is the Maricopa County recorder. He is a Republican but a good, honest guy.
Meet the Arizona Election Official Combating Misinformation One Tweet at a Time
https://www.wired.com/story/stephen-richer-arizona-primary-election-fraud/
also
Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer leads tour of election and tabulation center
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HG1IWMcxErM
There are also live tours.
That’s a huge relief to hear! Thank you so much also for your links.
I always appreciate what is happening in other states. So great to hear from you.
Surprised that the only mention of unions was concerning NV's culinary union; would have thought the discussion around PA/MI/WI would have mentioned the support from UAW, USW, NABTU, SEIU and the potential for Teamsters.
Great meeting last night and I appreciate your comments on the protests. Biden sounded quite similar today and here is a longer clip.
https://youtu.be/O24ILhY3g6s?si=PRodT3CvT7UOesd6
I just clicked through and gave $25 each to the North Carolina and Gallego links in your post. I’m glad to do what I can. Your hard work and enthusiasm are greatly appreciated and I am happy to be a small part of it.
thank you!
Every time I get angry i donate 5 bucks!
Thank could get expensive fast if you get angry as often as I do...
Isn’t the early April Pew poll already old news?
It's the largest sample poll released in recent weeks so the demo breakouts can be trusted more than 800-1200 sample polls which have had in recent weeks - CNN poll best example - wild and crazy demo break outs. Folks ask me all the time about what's happening with young people and people of color and I feel like this is probably the single best poll we have right now to go deeper on the state of our coalition itself. In general its very risky to pay attention to demo/subgroup breakouts in these lower sample national polls.
Simon, I listened to the Bulwark podcast when you were the guest. Loved hearing what you had to say. Excellent podcast and feel good about taking the time to listen to you. Thanks!
thank you!
I hope they bring you back in late Summer/Early Fall to share your thoughts again.
I agree, Lorraine. I believe he was promised something, that he was paid off.
At least Time Magazine is paying attention.
Please explain to this non-statitician how these polls are conducted. I assume they are primarily done by phone. I remember in past years calls were made exclusively to landline numbers, which over represented an older demographic. Even if calls are now made to cell phones, who in this day and age answers an unidentified phone number (unless you’re waiting for the cable guy to call to tell you he’s 15 minutes away)? So, are the people responding to these phone polls just the ding-a-lings that answer any and all phone calls? Perhaps the pollsters are getting good samples of the electorate, but I’m skeptical.
Ann, I do a fair amount of GOTV phonebanking. Some people do answer their phones. No,they are not “ding-a-lings”. Yes, some are uninterested while others are grateful for the information and I’ve truly never had a nasty response.
Here is the methodology for the Pew poll.
“A total of 8,709 panelists responded out of 9,527 who were sampled, for a response rate of 91%. “
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/biden-trump-methodology/
Let’s all just keeping doing whatever is in our comfort zone to GOTV.
✍️📲💲📣🚶🏻
Those are terrific numbers. Thank you for your service!
When the polls were bad you said to ignore them because polls are meaningless. Now that they're not so bad, they're no longer meaningless?
.
There's only one poll I trust. The Exit Poll.
I have never said ignore polls. What I say, and say in this presentation and all of my presentations, is that polls are only piece of the information available to us. And that the polls were likely to get better for us as the electorate checked in, which is happening now. Is it enough to win? No way of knowing. We have six months of work ahead of us.
I also want to say that we have a "no jerks" rule here, and work very hard to keep all of our comments respectful and informed. This one from you was on the edge.
Sorry, didn't mean to seem jerkish. Lack of voice inflection sometimes trips me up. I don't trust polls because all of them are conducted by people, and as you pointed out, some have agendas.
.
And if things are looking too good, I'm afraid a number of folks will stay home because "ah, things are looking good and I'm just one vote that doesn't matter anyway."
Hi Scott, We recruited 3 great - YOUNG - candidates in districts 70-71-72
Check them out. They are just getting filed on the Fl Dept of Elections.
Chris Wetherington, the local chair was terrific in helping!
First, tnx for your even keel, calm analysis and concrete suggestions for action.
In light of your comments today concerning Kari Lake and Arizona:
https://youtu.be/lOWr7_AtZ08
Pass it around just to remind everyone.
I’m so grateful for this community. Let’s win this, up and down the ballot, everyone!
Simon, thank you for discussing the many ramifications of the current protests at colleges. I’ve struggled to understand what is happening and to interpret the viewpoints being expressed by the protesters as well as their actions. Your perspective was very helpful to me and very appropriate for this community to seriously consider going forward.
This is a hard issue, and we will not always stay together, but we do need to start diving deeper into the issues being raised.....
...which is made more difficult when our news media fail to do that deep dive.
💯
https://youtu.be/a876Hb6c4F8?si=HN1xA_XfaWGIW1JM
I just listened to this recent talk by Heather Cox Richardson. She talks about the protests from the personification a political historian and a college professor. Well worth your time.
Not sure where exactly this topic is in the video, but it’s not at the beginning.
*****Perspective
last ten minutes - around 49:36 and about college campuses around 54:20
Little late here. I really appreciated your comments about the protests. I am going to share with a few people. If nothing else, I will say please listen to the last ten minutes. I wish more of our surrogates were as measured and fair as you are on this very complicated, layered and unfortunately divisive issue. Thank you.
I thought that was fantastic. We are stronger together
Absolutely 💯 👍
All your points last night were rock solid, Simon. I would add that your reference to a potential large Biden win is particularly significant because of its impact on down ballot races.
Keeping the Senate and regaining the House would make a second term incredibly easier.
The Hispanic drop off? Hispanics need to know about Trumps plan to round up 12 million Hispanics for encampments along the border on the way to deportation.
Yes I've never believed that the R to break through to people of color would be the most extreme racist and xenophobe in modern times....we have a lot to work with, and should make gains here.
Agree. I’ve long been fascinated with demographics and keep track of a metric no one seems to measure. We now see about 90,000 more Texas “whites” die each year than Texas Hispanics. That differential increases each year and adds up to a huge aggregate number over a decade.
There’s a reason Texas GOPers make it hard to vote.
Amigo - Remember to approach Hispanic Americans as whole Americans with the whole diverse set of life concerns, not just immigration concerns. The round up/encampments issue sure will be particularly insulting to your average/median hispanic American, more than to a white or black American named Johnson or Jones - but it can and should outrage all Americans with a heart. But as a tailored pitch, it is not of special meaning or threat to, for example, Puerto Rican Americans or Cuban Americans, or New Mexican Hispanos. But Honduran, Salvadoran, recent south Mexican, Venezuelan Americans could very much have reason to feel like people they know or love are threatened by Trump's immigration plans. There really is no average hispanic in America. Hispanics care about jobs, education, and health care like everybody else. Bernie connected pretty well with the hispanic audience on the level of being pro-jobs, pro worker, pro fair wages. Past slippage - and we still always got majorities of hispanic communities except for Cubans and traditional Texas communities, likely had more to do with our restraint on canvassing, lack of spreading the word well bilingually, and us being seen as the party of work shutdowns. We show we are Mejor por los obreros - better for the workers and Mejor por los ninos - better for the kids we should improve performance.
agree with all this. I led the very first national Spanish language media campaign ever produced by Dems in 2004 and our tag line, I think, was "Con los demócratas una vida mejor." I will dig up some of those ads and share them in the coming weeks.
For those who want to dive deeper into the Hispanic vote see my presentation, The Remarkable Success of the Democratic Party's Hispanic Strategy - https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/videoanalysis-democrats-and-the-hispanic?utm_source=publication-search
Gracias Simon- glad to be helpful, and trying to avoid making any comments that are too "picante" around here. :)
Any recommendations on what any of us can do to help Sherrod Brown, besides give his campaign money (check!) and move to Ohio? [umm, haven't done that and not planning on it]? The guy to me seems to be the perfect model of what Democratic Senator for the working man in a red state should be. One would have wished Joe Manchin had been more like him, or Evan Bayh, back in the day. He matches his tone and style to his state, but remains caucus and party loyal. He's defended himself well enough to the home audience last time around. This time around he's got tough, well-funded challenge as the Ohio public seems to deepen its epistemic closure. [too many right-minded still moving out?]
...just to be clear - right-minded leads to blue-voting... :) The "right" in that sentence isn't that other kind of "right" that is used as an adjective in front of a wing.
Absolutely. Hispanics do not constitute a monolithic group. So, generally speaking and referencing Hispanic Texans in particular.
The highway construction industry is huge in Texas. TxDOT lets roughly $13 billion a year in contracts. About 85 percent of the highway construction workforce is Hispanic. High paying construction jobs. 87 percent of congressional GOPers voted against Biden’s infrastructure bill - simply to vote against Biden instead of for Hispanic construction workers.
Texas GOPers passed a harsh voter photo ID law a few years ago. More than 600,000 Texans were disenfranchised because they could no longer vote because they didn’t own vehicles and, thus, had no drivers license. Most were Hispanic Texans.
Texas GOPers are always trying to pass “show me your papers” legislation. Do you think cops are more likely to pull over a “Scharrer” or a “Rodriguez”?
Statistics before Dobbs showed Texas Hispanics accessed abortion more than any other demographic group … 39 percent of Texas abortions involved Latinas v 27 percent for whites. Medical necessary abortions are nearly impossible for Texans.
What do low income Texas Hispanics do when they need to access abortion services?
Texas has more uninsured children than any other state. Most of those kids are Hispanic. GOP policies harm most Hispanics… but many don’t realize the reality.
Sigh.
Here in Baghdad By the Sea we have a separate agenda, as do the PR concurrent majority in central Florida. One size does not fit all and all politics are local. What is said in the southwest does not work here. I've been trying to express this -- but all I get is crickets. BTW besides being the "Trump hates dogs" and the flip the Amish guy, I'm also author of Breaking Up with Cuba (2010) and a novel, Miami '90. Although we have a Democratic majority in Miami Dade county, we have three (3) MAGAT Batisianos representing us. IMHO we may be able to register 100,000 new Dems in this county. But still, even if Dem, about 20% vote antiCuba or antiVenezuela or proColombia first, individual interest second. I don't know how abortion and marijuana will affect their mistrust of Democrats.
As a Hispanic myself, I completely agree. We are not a monolithic group. Also varies state by state, age, first versus second generation, etc. Si se Puede!
Just curious if anyone knows about Spanish language postcard campaigns happening or planned? I have been working on a few campaigns and haven’t seen any yet.
Etsy and Amazon both offer Spanish voter postcards but I have not yet run across any campaigns. Perhaps FieldTeam6 offers.