Simon, thank you! Maricopa County really, really matters! We cannot afford shenanigans in the way elections are administered and carried out in Arizona’s largest county – and we most certainly cannot afford having right-wingers in charge who might refuse to certify elections there.
Very encouraging and very telling that renowned election pundit Larry Sabato has moved the Gallego–Lake race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic". Meanwhile, in Congressional District AZ-06, the incumbent Ciscomani has been downgraded from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up".
It's great to see the vibes being so different this year than in previous elections. 2016 nobody cared. 2020, people cared but were also depressed because of Covid. This year, people care and are raring to go.
College professor and mother of college students here and I had a thought about younger Gen Z looking more republican - with this hot economy lots of kids are entering the workforce directly from high school rather than going directly to college. I think this is particularly true for young men who already lean republican compared to young women. I saw this anecdotally with the graduating classes of my children (classes of 20 and 23) as well as in the decline in traditional age students in higher education. Could this gap shift as young people decide to go back to school once they decide they want more career options or different career options after working in entry-level jobs for a few years? Just wanted to toss those ideas in here. Thank you for all your amazing work.
Arizona Dems are fortunate to have an expert who knows how to connect dots. Your remarks will reinforce the importance they play in saving democracy.
Dems need to regain the House (likely) and keep the Senate (challenging) to shore up democracy. That means reforming the filibuster so we can address voting rights (gutted by the 5-4 Shelby ruling); women’s reproductive health care; gun violence; etc. Sinema got in the way; Gallego will help
Great post today, Simon. Always find what John Della Volpe reports fascinating.
In the quest to do more and worry less, I have another volunteer opportunity for those who like to write letters. Swing Left is partnering with Vote Forward. They have a number of campaigns including to Arizona and North Carolina - as well as the other battleground states and specific house flip seats in NY and CA.
Most of the letter is pre-written. You will come up with a few sentences that are your personal feelings about what motivates you to vote. The Vote Forward folks will work with you on your statement. Here's a link in case this sounds like work you'd like to do
I emailed my Congress member yesterday, Young Kim, a Republican, to vote for Ukraine support. I don't like her, and try to avoid her as much as possible. But I held my nose and sent her a message.
And elsewhere in Arizona, in Coconino County, we have Jonathan Nez (former president of the Navaho Nation) running to defeat Eli Crane (MAGA man). Please support Jonathan Nez!!
Called my Representative, Mary Peltola, Democrat, our lone Congresswoman. Reminder: Peltola was elected here in AK through our new ranked choice voting system after years of Republican primary domination (50 years of one dominant Republican in that single chair). She supports Ukraine and is a voice of reason, hope and optimism.
P.S. I first heard of Mary a little over two years ago when she called my cell phone (yes, she personally called Alaska Dems) and told me she was running for the seat. She asked what my concerns for Alaska were. We talked for several minutes. She's been through a lot--recently lost her husband when his plane crashed in AK--but keeps soldiering on. Any support for her is money well spent. She just never stops being a bright light for the good in Congress.
Totally the Gen Z’s are singularly focused on economics, especially those as you report that bypass further education to take advantage of a booming economy. I meet with a couple each week that’s assisting me with my technical devices ➕ discussion about this historical period in 🇺🇸that we’re all living through. This Boomer enjoys the assist & the opportunity to remind them their Generation will determine if we remain the democracy as the Framers’ envisioned. Plus influence how their government functions as I believe we will save 🇺🇸democracy in 2024. 🇺🇸survives others can as well🗽 This is an awesome group that Simon has created & confident we’ll do more ~ worry less🙏
Diving in on the Harvard study a little - the whole thing really comes down to men 18-24. The drop in their margin for Biden mirrors their support for Democrats, so the conventional wisdom about candidate selection doesn't seem to hold. I wonder how much of this is about information environment - these guys spent formative years listening to Joe Rogan's conspiracy-theory-laden podcast and on Elon Musk's increasingly toxic platform. It wouldn't be surprising if that shifted a lot of them toward MAGA and Trump.
Among most other groups of young people - the 25-29s who were in the 18-24 cohort last time, women in both age brackets, etc. Biden is meeting his 2020 margin. It's these four-years-worth of newly-voting-age young men that are basically all of the drag.
Re: the younger Gen Z trending higher towards Republicans than the older cohort of Gen Z. In 1968 I was too young to vote (19) but if I hadn't been I would have voted for Nixon because my parents did and I trusted their judgment. By 1972 I was working in the McGovern campaign in a NC county, going door to door because of the Vietnam war and learning a lot about racial issues and poverty and I trusted my own judgment more than my parents' about what was fair and what was right. I've been a Democrat ever since.
I would suggest that parental/family influence plays a big part in the 18-24 age group, and more particularly, if they're still paying the bills.
#GoSimon!!!!! Your ability to provide so much information on so many topics critical to this election is fabulous! Can't wait to have you on The New York Buddy Group tomorrow morning to spread all the Hopium and talking points to our Information Warriors!!!! You are really amazing!!!!!!
Just called my representative again. Spent this morning postcardIng for Ruben. Trying to do more and worry less! Thank you, Simon, and thank you to this community.
Simon, thank you! Maricopa County really, really matters! We cannot afford shenanigans in the way elections are administered and carried out in Arizona’s largest county – and we most certainly cannot afford having right-wingers in charge who might refuse to certify elections there.
Very encouraging and very telling that renowned election pundit Larry Sabato has moved the Gallego–Lake race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic". Meanwhile, in Congressional District AZ-06, the incumbent Ciscomani has been downgraded from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up".
.
Blue Tsunami incoming!
It's great to see the vibes being so different this year than in previous elections. 2016 nobody cared. 2020, people cared but were also depressed because of Covid. This year, people care and are raring to go.
Simon! Welcome to Phoenix! We are so excited to have you speak at the gala this evening. I have to reserve a photo with you! Thanks for all you do. 💙
College professor and mother of college students here and I had a thought about younger Gen Z looking more republican - with this hot economy lots of kids are entering the workforce directly from high school rather than going directly to college. I think this is particularly true for young men who already lean republican compared to young women. I saw this anecdotally with the graduating classes of my children (classes of 20 and 23) as well as in the decline in traditional age students in higher education. Could this gap shift as young people decide to go back to school once they decide they want more career options or different career options after working in entry-level jobs for a few years? Just wanted to toss those ideas in here. Thank you for all your amazing work.
Arizona Dems are fortunate to have an expert who knows how to connect dots. Your remarks will reinforce the importance they play in saving democracy.
Dems need to regain the House (likely) and keep the Senate (challenging) to shore up democracy. That means reforming the filibuster so we can address voting rights (gutted by the 5-4 Shelby ruling); women’s reproductive health care; gun violence; etc. Sinema got in the way; Gallego will help
lead.
Great post today, Simon. Always find what John Della Volpe reports fascinating.
In the quest to do more and worry less, I have another volunteer opportunity for those who like to write letters. Swing Left is partnering with Vote Forward. They have a number of campaigns including to Arizona and North Carolina - as well as the other battleground states and specific house flip seats in NY and CA.
Most of the letter is pre-written. You will come up with a few sentences that are your personal feelings about what motivates you to vote. The Vote Forward folks will work with you on your statement. Here's a link in case this sounds like work you'd like to do
https://votefwd.org/campaigns
I emailed my Congress member yesterday, Young Kim, a Republican, to vote for Ukraine support. I don't like her, and try to avoid her as much as possible. But I held my nose and sent her a message.
And elsewhere in Arizona, in Coconino County, we have Jonathan Nez (former president of the Navaho Nation) running to defeat Eli Crane (MAGA man). Please support Jonathan Nez!!
Called my Representative, Mary Peltola, Democrat, our lone Congresswoman. Reminder: Peltola was elected here in AK through our new ranked choice voting system after years of Republican primary domination (50 years of one dominant Republican in that single chair). She supports Ukraine and is a voice of reason, hope and optimism.
P.S. I first heard of Mary a little over two years ago when she called my cell phone (yes, she personally called Alaska Dems) and told me she was running for the seat. She asked what my concerns for Alaska were. We talked for several minutes. She's been through a lot--recently lost her husband when his plane crashed in AK--but keeps soldiering on. Any support for her is money well spent. She just never stops being a bright light for the good in Congress.
What do you mean?
“(note from Simon - that younger Gen Z may be more Republican is something we really have to come to understand)”
Keep working it everyone! Do more, worry less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Totally the Gen Z’s are singularly focused on economics, especially those as you report that bypass further education to take advantage of a booming economy. I meet with a couple each week that’s assisting me with my technical devices ➕ discussion about this historical period in 🇺🇸that we’re all living through. This Boomer enjoys the assist & the opportunity to remind them their Generation will determine if we remain the democracy as the Framers’ envisioned. Plus influence how their government functions as I believe we will save 🇺🇸democracy in 2024. 🇺🇸survives others can as well🗽 This is an awesome group that Simon has created & confident we’ll do more ~ worry less🙏
Diving in on the Harvard study a little - the whole thing really comes down to men 18-24. The drop in their margin for Biden mirrors their support for Democrats, so the conventional wisdom about candidate selection doesn't seem to hold. I wonder how much of this is about information environment - these guys spent formative years listening to Joe Rogan's conspiracy-theory-laden podcast and on Elon Musk's increasingly toxic platform. It wouldn't be surprising if that shifted a lot of them toward MAGA and Trump.
Among most other groups of young people - the 25-29s who were in the 18-24 cohort last time, women in both age brackets, etc. Biden is meeting his 2020 margin. It's these four-years-worth of newly-voting-age young men that are basically all of the drag.
Re: the younger Gen Z trending higher towards Republicans than the older cohort of Gen Z. In 1968 I was too young to vote (19) but if I hadn't been I would have voted for Nixon because my parents did and I trusted their judgment. By 1972 I was working in the McGovern campaign in a NC county, going door to door because of the Vietnam war and learning a lot about racial issues and poverty and I trusted my own judgment more than my parents' about what was fair and what was right. I've been a Democrat ever since.
I would suggest that parental/family influence plays a big part in the 18-24 age group, and more particularly, if they're still paying the bills.
#GoSimon!!!!! Your ability to provide so much information on so many topics critical to this election is fabulous! Can't wait to have you on The New York Buddy Group tomorrow morning to spread all the Hopium and talking points to our Information Warriors!!!! You are really amazing!!!!!!
Just called my representative again. Spent this morning postcardIng for Ruben. Trying to do more and worry less! Thank you, Simon, and thank you to this community.