Simon, thank you! Maricopa County really, really matters! We cannot afford shenanigans in the way elections are administered and carried out in Arizona’s largest county – and we most certainly cannot afford having right-wingers in charge who might refuse to certify elections there.
Very encouraging and very telling that renowned election pundit Larry Sabato has moved the Gallego–Lake race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic". Meanwhile, in Congressional District AZ-06, the incumbent Ciscomani has been downgraded from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up".
I'm looking for new work right now and sometimes the thought pops in to my head to move to AZ just to be able to volunteer in person. Then I see the weather report on any given day there and immediately burst out screaming.
LOL re the weather! Markersfordemocracy.org has a connection with a grassroots group in AZ that might be of interest to you. Here's one of their newsletters where the very first article is about AZ. Blessings,
It's great to see the vibes being so different this year than in previous elections. 2016 nobody cared. 2020, people cared but were also depressed because of Covid. This year, people care and are raring to go.
College professor and mother of college students here and I had a thought about younger Gen Z looking more republican - with this hot economy lots of kids are entering the workforce directly from high school rather than going directly to college. I think this is particularly true for young men who already lean republican compared to young women. I saw this anecdotally with the graduating classes of my children (classes of 20 and 23) as well as in the decline in traditional age students in higher education. Could this gap shift as young people decide to go back to school once they decide they want more career options or different career options after working in entry-level jobs for a few years? Just wanted to toss those ideas in here. Thank you for all your amazing work.
Arizona Dems are fortunate to have an expert who knows how to connect dots. Your remarks will reinforce the importance they play in saving democracy.
Dems need to regain the House (likely) and keep the Senate (challenging) to shore up democracy. That means reforming the filibuster so we can address voting rights (gutted by the 5-4 Shelby ruling); women’s reproductive health care; gun violence; etc. Sinema got in the way; Gallego will help
Great post today, Simon. Always find what John Della Volpe reports fascinating.
In the quest to do more and worry less, I have another volunteer opportunity for those who like to write letters. Swing Left is partnering with Vote Forward. They have a number of campaigns including to Arizona and North Carolina - as well as the other battleground states and specific house flip seats in NY and CA.
Most of the letter is pre-written. You will come up with a few sentences that are your personal feelings about what motivates you to vote. The Vote Forward folks will work with you on your statement. Here's a link in case this sounds like work you'd like to do
Lyn - I've been a Vote Forward letter writer for several years now and the team there is terrific and great at collaboration. Everyone has their own way of connecting with voters and I find Vote Forward works well for me. Thanks for mentioning them.
I emailed my Congress member yesterday, Young Kim, a Republican, to vote for Ukraine support. I don't like her, and try to avoid her as much as possible. But I held my nose and sent her a message.
And elsewhere in Arizona, in Coconino County, we have Jonathan Nez (former president of the Navaho Nation) running to defeat Eli Crane (MAGA man). Please support Jonathan Nez!!
Called my Representative, Mary Peltola, Democrat, our lone Congresswoman. Reminder: Peltola was elected here in AK through our new ranked choice voting system after years of Republican primary domination (50 years of one dominant Republican in that single chair). She supports Ukraine and is a voice of reason, hope and optimism.
P.S. I first heard of Mary a little over two years ago when she called my cell phone (yes, she personally called Alaska Dems) and told me she was running for the seat. She asked what my concerns for Alaska were. We talked for several minutes. She's been through a lot--recently lost her husband when his plane crashed in AK--but keeps soldiering on. Any support for her is money well spent. She just never stops being a bright light for the good in Congress.
This is not the first poll showing younger Gen Z a little more R than older Gen Z. My three kids are younger gen z, in this cohort, and while I have my views on it we need a bit more research to understand it better, and see what we can do about it.
and Bryan, in what has been a week of remarkably good news for us, this is the thing you choose to go to Notes about it? How is that in any way consistent with what we are trying to do here....
I’m confused?? I was asking what you meant with that so I could understand? Just made calls to congressman and donated to Gallego. I’m with you on this
It's not an odd response. You raised the question internally here, and then put it on Notes which is outside Hopium and open to the public without the broader context of my entire post. My point remains that we've had a remarkable amount of good news here this week and we can and should stay focused on all that. Onward, S
Bryan, I think this is just a case of tone being very difficult to read over text, especially when there is little context provided. It's easy to read a simple question meant as casually curious (hey, what do you mean by that?) as passive-aggressive, hectoring, etc. (HEY! What do you MEAN by THAT?!) It might sound like you are isolating a piece of info just to be negative even if you meant it neutral (or vise versa) because we can't "hear" the vocal tone you are asking it in, and there is no other explaination of why you asking. This happens when I text my Mom all the time and she actually knows my personality and what my voice sounds like! Imagine if she didn't!
Yea I guess so.. just a little off-putting considering I’ve been working with this full heartedly.. but I’m sure Simon has enough on his hands with his time-consuming hard work to engage every question.. it’s understandable
Totally the Gen Z’s are singularly focused on economics, especially those as you report that bypass further education to take advantage of a booming economy. I meet with a couple each week that’s assisting me with my technical devices ➕ discussion about this historical period in 🇺🇸that we’re all living through. This Boomer enjoys the assist & the opportunity to remind them their Generation will determine if we remain the democracy as the Framers’ envisioned. Plus influence how their government functions as I believe we will save 🇺🇸democracy in 2024. 🇺🇸survives others can as well🗽 This is an awesome group that Simon has created & confident we’ll do more ~ worry less🙏
Yes, yes, yes! As Simon says, winning the economics argument is STILL the most key thing, and young voters are no exception. I feel like I keep seeing people making the assumption that young people are singularly focused on social justice issues, and that is so very much not the case. From my perspective, young people see economics and principles of justice as being in concert with each other: we want to see an EASIER, FAIRER economy for regular people. If you can show you are making a good faith effort on making cost of living fairer - even if only gradually! - that is the most persuasive line of argument for keeping young voters in your corner. If anyone here thinks a certain aspect of foreign affairs is higher on the list of Important Things than housing costs for the overwheming majority of under-30 voters... think again.
Diving in on the Harvard study a little - the whole thing really comes down to men 18-24. The drop in their margin for Biden mirrors their support for Democrats, so the conventional wisdom about candidate selection doesn't seem to hold. I wonder how much of this is about information environment - these guys spent formative years listening to Joe Rogan's conspiracy-theory-laden podcast and on Elon Musk's increasingly toxic platform. It wouldn't be surprising if that shifted a lot of them toward MAGA and Trump.
Among most other groups of young people - the 25-29s who were in the 18-24 cohort last time, women in both age brackets, etc. Biden is meeting his 2020 margin. It's these four-years-worth of newly-voting-age young men that are basically all of the drag.
Joe Rogan and Elon Musk unfortunately have gone in a right-leaning direction; not sure why but much of it could be tied to taxes - Joe is rich and Elon is super-super-rich.
I think you are right, both about the drop in Democratic support among the under-25 set being driven by young men, and that “influencers” like Rogan, Andrew Tate (blecch) and Elon Musk, just to name three, are largely to blame. There have been so many pixels sacrificed on the altar of “Boomers are so easily brainwashed by right-wing propaganda REEEEEE” that I think that the radicalization of some younger segments of society by TikTok and prominent influencers gets ignored.
In my observation, the ones who seem the most likely to be negatively influenced are the “NEET” crowd (Not in Education, Employment or Training) and what they have in common with the seniors who mainline Fox, to their detriment, is so much free time on their hands to pay attention to these guys in the first place. Your average Millennial is working, might own a house, might have kids, usually has a spouse or significant other, usually has living parents and other relatives, usually socializes outside the home…you get the picture. They don’t have time for Joe Rogan! The saying about idle hands doing the devil’s work is true, if you take it as a metaphor.
Silver lining: young, uneducated men are the least likely to vote. They can like Trump all they want, but if they don’t bother to show up at the polls (and most don’t), it boils down to a great big heap of nothing. There is a voting gender gap, largest among the young (under 30) and those with a high school degree or less. Men with a BA+ vote at approximately the same rate as women. Here is a link: https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout
Re: the younger Gen Z trending higher towards Republicans than the older cohort of Gen Z. In 1968 I was too young to vote (19) but if I hadn't been I would have voted for Nixon because my parents did and I trusted their judgment. By 1972 I was working in the McGovern campaign in a NC county, going door to door because of the Vietnam war and learning a lot about racial issues and poverty and I trusted my own judgment more than my parents' about what was fair and what was right. I've been a Democrat ever since.
I would suggest that parental/family influence plays a big part in the 18-24 age group, and more particularly, if they're still paying the bills.
I am not sure about that. We should really consider that the younger Gen Z has really only known Trump as dominate political figure, and Joe Biden is not one that naturally connects with younger audiences.
I was in late elementary school when Bill Clinton was impeached. I remember fully not understanding the issues but feeling like "The President" was being betrayed/attacked and it angered me. Irrespective of my parents politics, my mom, defines her politics by Reagan and my Dad is a swing voter. The next politically salient event in my life was Republicans in my state ramping up attacks on sex ed. After those two things I cannot think of a time when I had a positive impression of Republicans. Given the Impeachment and issues around covid it is not inconceivable that some portion of the generation is swayed in a similar way.
"Younger Gen Z has really only known Trump as dominate political figure, and Joe Biden is not one that naturally connects with younger audiences."
I'm going to be blunt... this is a really, truly bizzarre take to me (I'm in my late 20s, fwiw). Young people have been predisposed to rail against perceived dominant authority since time immemorial. Also, on a basic human storytelling/psychology level, someone being the loudest voice in a space usually only endears people to you if they like you to begin with, otherwise they just get more progressively exhausted or angry with you. If people have come to see you as a bad guy, an attack on you doesn't seem as much like an attack as a comeuppance. (Think of every Disney movie ever.) Clinton was likeable, so impeaching him backfired almost immediately. The 45th President? Not the same result.
I think we're still stuck comparing Biden to the generationally charismatic Obama (for older people, Clinton too) in terms of "enthusiasm-driving" appeal to youth culture, which is a comparison that will inevitably result in the more workmanlike person being deemed "uninspiring." But inspiration isn't necessary to win elections, only getting more votes than your opponents is, and the Biden-era Dems have had no problem doing that so far amongst a youth cohort. The former guy is the living embodiment of everything modern youth could possibly stand against, while Biden is - in D&D terms - a lawful neutral. Getting caught up on whether John Della Volpe says lawful neutral is winning out over chaotic evil by 28 points or merely 24 is missing the big picture: lawful neutral still wins by a lot.
I would be interested in hearing more on why you think it is strange. I think you are discounting two things:
The first is how much stock people put into hierarchy and authority especially as they age and develop political and national identity.
The second is how perverse Trump is to establishment, and how much people see him as wrecking ball to power structures.
Younger children are more likely to hold esteem in offices, power structures, and acceptance of those who hold those during the Idyllic times in their lives. This is not a feeling I share, but a lot of low info full grown adults think Trump got a raw deal and "they" are out to get him. It would not be surprising that an above background number of people who came into political and national identity during Trump's term shared that sentiment because it was the first real political thing they experienced
The second is when people get older in the their mid-teens and want an to rail against the perceived dominate authority. Trump's whole shtick is saying the elites are bad and we will fight them. Hell he was in charge when we went into lock down and some how he is know as being anti-lockdown or something the Democrats did to him.
Less politically engaged people and children/teenagers who the news feels like homework make political decisions and affiliations for really ethereal reasons. They like the color blue more than red, they think a politician is funny, the person they have a crush on is into them. Things that we would think is crazy is how people pick the candidates they support.
Lastly I will say, I think Joe Biden is more charismatic enough and I like him a lot. I also liked my grandmother a lot when I was a kid but there was just didn't have much in common so we were never close. It is not a slight against him Biden just a fact.
Josh, I think all the parts of your reasoning are definitely solid, but I feel like you are maybe extrapolating a personal perception/experience onto others when it may not necessarily apply. (Hey, I do that too! It's a human thing!)
When you bring up "how much stock people put into hierarchy and authority" and "how perverse Trump is to establishment, and how much people see him as wrecking ball," those are great points that I can assure you I consider. The trouble here is that SOME people put stock in authority and some reject it. SOME people find the former guy as anti-establishment, and some people see him as the embodiment of it. SOME people like "shaking things up" that way, while others either fear the shaking-up, or want the shaking-up to be going in the other direction. Older, white, and Evangelical voters tend to be more open to authoritarianism, and when they say "elite" or "establishment" they mean an imagined *cultural* elite, i.e. the increasingly educated people who are insisting of softness and laziness and shoving fancy diversity in the face of the regular "real" Americans. (Not my view, obviously.) Younger, non-white, and religiously unaffiliated voters tend to be suspicious and fearful of authoritarianism, and when they say "elite" or "establishment" they mean *economic* elite, i.e. people running powerful corporations that make it hard for regular people to have a future. (They see cultural elitism too, but they see it as a structural race/gender thing and call it "privilege," and guess who also represents the worst form of that?)
Essentially, pretty much all of this comes down to temperament and personal experience, much of it passed down by family. I am very inclined to reject the idea that "children are more likely to hold esteem in offices, power structures, and acceptance of those who hold those" because I hated being told what to do since birth (and my parents weren't even that strict!) and preferred to hang out with other kids who felt similarly. In middle school, one of my friend's parents had a portrait of Bush Jr. in their kitchen. I remember thinking "That's creepy... you don't know the President and pictures are for people you know!" My aunts and uncles made jokes about the same President at Thanksgiving and blamed him for the war on the TV. So I wouldn't have been sad about someone opposing the President, while my friend almost definitely would have been upset. Zeroing in on the most recent impeachment: it was less than 5 years ago! So if you are 18-24 now, you were 13-20 then, so the timeline to your experience isn't comparable. The older people in that already-youngest demographic had already had a chance to vote IN the people doing the impeaching!
This was a bit of a ramble, but I hope it made sense.
#GoSimon!!!!! Your ability to provide so much information on so many topics critical to this election is fabulous! Can't wait to have you on The New York Buddy Group tomorrow morning to spread all the Hopium and talking points to our Information Warriors!!!! You are really amazing!!!!!!
Just called my representative again. Spent this morning postcardIng for Ruben. Trying to do more and worry less! Thank you, Simon, and thank you to this community.
Simon, thank you! Maricopa County really, really matters! We cannot afford shenanigans in the way elections are administered and carried out in Arizona’s largest county – and we most certainly cannot afford having right-wingers in charge who might refuse to certify elections there.
Very encouraging and very telling that renowned election pundit Larry Sabato has moved the Gallego–Lake race from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democratic". Meanwhile, in Congressional District AZ-06, the incumbent Ciscomani has been downgraded from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up".
.
Blue Tsunami incoming!
I jjust forwarded today’s blog to my friend in Arizona.
I'm looking for new work right now and sometimes the thought pops in to my head to move to AZ just to be able to volunteer in person. Then I see the weather report on any given day there and immediately burst out screaming.
LOL re the weather! Markersfordemocracy.org has a connection with a grassroots group in AZ that might be of interest to you. Here's one of their newsletters where the very first article is about AZ. Blessings,
https://mailchi.mp/ad06af520335/this-week-in-postcarding-412-issue?e=e91036c2eb
Thanks, Chaplain Terry! I will check this out for sure!
Yay!! They will be blessed to have you!
It's great to see the vibes being so different this year than in previous elections. 2016 nobody cared. 2020, people cared but were also depressed because of Covid. This year, people care and are raring to go.
Simon! Welcome to Phoenix! We are so excited to have you speak at the gala this evening. I have to reserve a photo with you! Thanks for all you do. 💙
College professor and mother of college students here and I had a thought about younger Gen Z looking more republican - with this hot economy lots of kids are entering the workforce directly from high school rather than going directly to college. I think this is particularly true for young men who already lean republican compared to young women. I saw this anecdotally with the graduating classes of my children (classes of 20 and 23) as well as in the decline in traditional age students in higher education. Could this gap shift as young people decide to go back to school once they decide they want more career options or different career options after working in entry-level jobs for a few years? Just wanted to toss those ideas in here. Thank you for all your amazing work.
Arizona Dems are fortunate to have an expert who knows how to connect dots. Your remarks will reinforce the importance they play in saving democracy.
Dems need to regain the House (likely) and keep the Senate (challenging) to shore up democracy. That means reforming the filibuster so we can address voting rights (gutted by the 5-4 Shelby ruling); women’s reproductive health care; gun violence; etc. Sinema got in the way; Gallego will help
lead.
Great post today, Simon. Always find what John Della Volpe reports fascinating.
In the quest to do more and worry less, I have another volunteer opportunity for those who like to write letters. Swing Left is partnering with Vote Forward. They have a number of campaigns including to Arizona and North Carolina - as well as the other battleground states and specific house flip seats in NY and CA.
Most of the letter is pre-written. You will come up with a few sentences that are your personal feelings about what motivates you to vote. The Vote Forward folks will work with you on your statement. Here's a link in case this sounds like work you'd like to do
https://votefwd.org/campaigns
Lyn - I've been a Vote Forward letter writer for several years now and the team there is terrific and great at collaboration. Everyone has their own way of connecting with voters and I find Vote Forward works well for me. Thanks for mentioning them.
I emailed my Congress member yesterday, Young Kim, a Republican, to vote for Ukraine support. I don't like her, and try to avoid her as much as possible. But I held my nose and sent her a message.
And elsewhere in Arizona, in Coconino County, we have Jonathan Nez (former president of the Navaho Nation) running to defeat Eli Crane (MAGA man). Please support Jonathan Nez!!
I’ve been writing postcards for Jonathan Nez through FieldTeam6.org!
Great!!
I've been sending texts for Jonathan Nez with Field Team 6!
Called my Representative, Mary Peltola, Democrat, our lone Congresswoman. Reminder: Peltola was elected here in AK through our new ranked choice voting system after years of Republican primary domination (50 years of one dominant Republican in that single chair). She supports Ukraine and is a voice of reason, hope and optimism.
P.S. I first heard of Mary a little over two years ago when she called my cell phone (yes, she personally called Alaska Dems) and told me she was running for the seat. She asked what my concerns for Alaska were. We talked for several minutes. She's been through a lot--recently lost her husband when his plane crashed in AK--but keeps soldiering on. Any support for her is money well spent. She just never stops being a bright light for the good in Congress.
What do you mean?
“(note from Simon - that younger Gen Z may be more Republican is something we really have to come to understand)”
This is not the first poll showing younger Gen Z a little more R than older Gen Z. My three kids are younger gen z, in this cohort, and while I have my views on it we need a bit more research to understand it better, and see what we can do about it.
and Bryan, in what has been a week of remarkably good news for us, this is the thing you choose to go to Notes about it? How is that in any way consistent with what we are trying to do here....
I’m confused?? I was asking what you meant with that so I could understand? Just made calls to congressman and donated to Gallego. I’m with you on this
I was reading your piece in Hopium today just asking for clarity so what is the issue? I’m in total support of this forum
It's not an odd response. You raised the question internally here, and then put it on Notes which is outside Hopium and open to the public without the broader context of my entire post. My point remains that we've had a remarkable amount of good news here this week and we can and should stay focused on all that. Onward, S
Odd response to my question. Maybe I didn’t understand but that is why I asked. Oh well…go Biden..go Dems
Bryan, I think this is just a case of tone being very difficult to read over text, especially when there is little context provided. It's easy to read a simple question meant as casually curious (hey, what do you mean by that?) as passive-aggressive, hectoring, etc. (HEY! What do you MEAN by THAT?!) It might sound like you are isolating a piece of info just to be negative even if you meant it neutral (or vise versa) because we can't "hear" the vocal tone you are asking it in, and there is no other explaination of why you asking. This happens when I text my Mom all the time and she actually knows my personality and what my voice sounds like! Imagine if she didn't!
Yea I guess so.. just a little off-putting considering I’ve been working with this full heartedly.. but I’m sure Simon has enough on his hands with his time-consuming hard work to engage every question.. it’s understandable
Keep working it everyone! Do more, worry less!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Totally the Gen Z’s are singularly focused on economics, especially those as you report that bypass further education to take advantage of a booming economy. I meet with a couple each week that’s assisting me with my technical devices ➕ discussion about this historical period in 🇺🇸that we’re all living through. This Boomer enjoys the assist & the opportunity to remind them their Generation will determine if we remain the democracy as the Framers’ envisioned. Plus influence how their government functions as I believe we will save 🇺🇸democracy in 2024. 🇺🇸survives others can as well🗽 This is an awesome group that Simon has created & confident we’ll do more ~ worry less🙏
Yes, yes, yes! As Simon says, winning the economics argument is STILL the most key thing, and young voters are no exception. I feel like I keep seeing people making the assumption that young people are singularly focused on social justice issues, and that is so very much not the case. From my perspective, young people see economics and principles of justice as being in concert with each other: we want to see an EASIER, FAIRER economy for regular people. If you can show you are making a good faith effort on making cost of living fairer - even if only gradually! - that is the most persuasive line of argument for keeping young voters in your corner. If anyone here thinks a certain aspect of foreign affairs is higher on the list of Important Things than housing costs for the overwheming majority of under-30 voters... think again.
Diving in on the Harvard study a little - the whole thing really comes down to men 18-24. The drop in their margin for Biden mirrors their support for Democrats, so the conventional wisdom about candidate selection doesn't seem to hold. I wonder how much of this is about information environment - these guys spent formative years listening to Joe Rogan's conspiracy-theory-laden podcast and on Elon Musk's increasingly toxic platform. It wouldn't be surprising if that shifted a lot of them toward MAGA and Trump.
Among most other groups of young people - the 25-29s who were in the 18-24 cohort last time, women in both age brackets, etc. Biden is meeting his 2020 margin. It's these four-years-worth of newly-voting-age young men that are basically all of the drag.
Joe Rogan and Elon Musk unfortunately have gone in a right-leaning direction; not sure why but much of it could be tied to taxes - Joe is rich and Elon is super-super-rich.
Ego is surely a key part of it.
Especially with Elon Musk. I don’t know how bad he was at first, but all the adulation and fanboying went straight to his head.
I think you are right, both about the drop in Democratic support among the under-25 set being driven by young men, and that “influencers” like Rogan, Andrew Tate (blecch) and Elon Musk, just to name three, are largely to blame. There have been so many pixels sacrificed on the altar of “Boomers are so easily brainwashed by right-wing propaganda REEEEEE” that I think that the radicalization of some younger segments of society by TikTok and prominent influencers gets ignored.
In my observation, the ones who seem the most likely to be negatively influenced are the “NEET” crowd (Not in Education, Employment or Training) and what they have in common with the seniors who mainline Fox, to their detriment, is so much free time on their hands to pay attention to these guys in the first place. Your average Millennial is working, might own a house, might have kids, usually has a spouse or significant other, usually has living parents and other relatives, usually socializes outside the home…you get the picture. They don’t have time for Joe Rogan! The saying about idle hands doing the devil’s work is true, if you take it as a metaphor.
Silver lining: young, uneducated men are the least likely to vote. They can like Trump all they want, but if they don’t bother to show up at the polls (and most don’t), it boils down to a great big heap of nothing. There is a voting gender gap, largest among the young (under 30) and those with a high school degree or less. Men with a BA+ vote at approximately the same rate as women. Here is a link: https://cawp.rutgers.edu/facts/voters/gender-differences-voter-turnout
Re: the younger Gen Z trending higher towards Republicans than the older cohort of Gen Z. In 1968 I was too young to vote (19) but if I hadn't been I would have voted for Nixon because my parents did and I trusted their judgment. By 1972 I was working in the McGovern campaign in a NC county, going door to door because of the Vietnam war and learning a lot about racial issues and poverty and I trusted my own judgment more than my parents' about what was fair and what was right. I've been a Democrat ever since.
I would suggest that parental/family influence plays a big part in the 18-24 age group, and more particularly, if they're still paying the bills.
I am not sure about that. We should really consider that the younger Gen Z has really only known Trump as dominate political figure, and Joe Biden is not one that naturally connects with younger audiences.
I was in late elementary school when Bill Clinton was impeached. I remember fully not understanding the issues but feeling like "The President" was being betrayed/attacked and it angered me. Irrespective of my parents politics, my mom, defines her politics by Reagan and my Dad is a swing voter. The next politically salient event in my life was Republicans in my state ramping up attacks on sex ed. After those two things I cannot think of a time when I had a positive impression of Republicans. Given the Impeachment and issues around covid it is not inconceivable that some portion of the generation is swayed in a similar way.
"Younger Gen Z has really only known Trump as dominate political figure, and Joe Biden is not one that naturally connects with younger audiences."
I'm going to be blunt... this is a really, truly bizzarre take to me (I'm in my late 20s, fwiw). Young people have been predisposed to rail against perceived dominant authority since time immemorial. Also, on a basic human storytelling/psychology level, someone being the loudest voice in a space usually only endears people to you if they like you to begin with, otherwise they just get more progressively exhausted or angry with you. If people have come to see you as a bad guy, an attack on you doesn't seem as much like an attack as a comeuppance. (Think of every Disney movie ever.) Clinton was likeable, so impeaching him backfired almost immediately. The 45th President? Not the same result.
I think we're still stuck comparing Biden to the generationally charismatic Obama (for older people, Clinton too) in terms of "enthusiasm-driving" appeal to youth culture, which is a comparison that will inevitably result in the more workmanlike person being deemed "uninspiring." But inspiration isn't necessary to win elections, only getting more votes than your opponents is, and the Biden-era Dems have had no problem doing that so far amongst a youth cohort. The former guy is the living embodiment of everything modern youth could possibly stand against, while Biden is - in D&D terms - a lawful neutral. Getting caught up on whether John Della Volpe says lawful neutral is winning out over chaotic evil by 28 points or merely 24 is missing the big picture: lawful neutral still wins by a lot.
I would be interested in hearing more on why you think it is strange. I think you are discounting two things:
The first is how much stock people put into hierarchy and authority especially as they age and develop political and national identity.
The second is how perverse Trump is to establishment, and how much people see him as wrecking ball to power structures.
Younger children are more likely to hold esteem in offices, power structures, and acceptance of those who hold those during the Idyllic times in their lives. This is not a feeling I share, but a lot of low info full grown adults think Trump got a raw deal and "they" are out to get him. It would not be surprising that an above background number of people who came into political and national identity during Trump's term shared that sentiment because it was the first real political thing they experienced
The second is when people get older in the their mid-teens and want an to rail against the perceived dominate authority. Trump's whole shtick is saying the elites are bad and we will fight them. Hell he was in charge when we went into lock down and some how he is know as being anti-lockdown or something the Democrats did to him.
Less politically engaged people and children/teenagers who the news feels like homework make political decisions and affiliations for really ethereal reasons. They like the color blue more than red, they think a politician is funny, the person they have a crush on is into them. Things that we would think is crazy is how people pick the candidates they support.
Lastly I will say, I think Joe Biden is more charismatic enough and I like him a lot. I also liked my grandmother a lot when I was a kid but there was just didn't have much in common so we were never close. It is not a slight against him Biden just a fact.
Josh, I think all the parts of your reasoning are definitely solid, but I feel like you are maybe extrapolating a personal perception/experience onto others when it may not necessarily apply. (Hey, I do that too! It's a human thing!)
When you bring up "how much stock people put into hierarchy and authority" and "how perverse Trump is to establishment, and how much people see him as wrecking ball," those are great points that I can assure you I consider. The trouble here is that SOME people put stock in authority and some reject it. SOME people find the former guy as anti-establishment, and some people see him as the embodiment of it. SOME people like "shaking things up" that way, while others either fear the shaking-up, or want the shaking-up to be going in the other direction. Older, white, and Evangelical voters tend to be more open to authoritarianism, and when they say "elite" or "establishment" they mean an imagined *cultural* elite, i.e. the increasingly educated people who are insisting of softness and laziness and shoving fancy diversity in the face of the regular "real" Americans. (Not my view, obviously.) Younger, non-white, and religiously unaffiliated voters tend to be suspicious and fearful of authoritarianism, and when they say "elite" or "establishment" they mean *economic* elite, i.e. people running powerful corporations that make it hard for regular people to have a future. (They see cultural elitism too, but they see it as a structural race/gender thing and call it "privilege," and guess who also represents the worst form of that?)
Essentially, pretty much all of this comes down to temperament and personal experience, much of it passed down by family. I am very inclined to reject the idea that "children are more likely to hold esteem in offices, power structures, and acceptance of those who hold those" because I hated being told what to do since birth (and my parents weren't even that strict!) and preferred to hang out with other kids who felt similarly. In middle school, one of my friend's parents had a portrait of Bush Jr. in their kitchen. I remember thinking "That's creepy... you don't know the President and pictures are for people you know!" My aunts and uncles made jokes about the same President at Thanksgiving and blamed him for the war on the TV. So I wouldn't have been sad about someone opposing the President, while my friend almost definitely would have been upset. Zeroing in on the most recent impeachment: it was less than 5 years ago! So if you are 18-24 now, you were 13-20 then, so the timeline to your experience isn't comparable. The older people in that already-youngest demographic had already had a chance to vote IN the people doing the impeaching!
This was a bit of a ramble, but I hope it made sense.
#GoSimon!!!!! Your ability to provide so much information on so many topics critical to this election is fabulous! Can't wait to have you on The New York Buddy Group tomorrow morning to spread all the Hopium and talking points to our Information Warriors!!!! You are really amazing!!!!!!
Just called my representative again. Spent this morning postcardIng for Ruben. Trying to do more and worry less! Thank you, Simon, and thank you to this community.