Winning In An Evolving Political Battlefield
Happy Easter Everyone!
Happy Easter everyone, Happy Passover too. May the spirit of renewal and redemption guide our work in the days ahead…..
There are two articles published in recent days I hope we can read and discuss together. Each speak to the emergence of what I call “the new battlefield” of these 2026 mid-terms, new ways Trump and his allies will do “whatever it takes” to keep Republicans in charge of Congress.
The first is from Anne Applebaum, in the Atlantic, The First Post-Reality Political Campaign: Hungary’s Viktor Orbán is waging cognitive warfare on a new scale (gift link). It begins:
Flick through pro-government Hungarian accounts on TikTok, and you might see an AI-generated version of Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, sitting on a golden toilet, counting his money, snorting cocaine, and barking orders at a Hungarian soldier. You might also find an AI-generated Péter Magyar, the leader of the Hungarian opposition, appearing to say he’s fine with handing Hungarian factories over to foreigners, as long as he’s the one in charge of the country. Keep going, and you will find images of war, violence, and a SpongeBob look-alike declaring that Magyar “wipes up cocaine with me after he accidentally sneezed and it all fell to the floor.”
You won’t find much about Hungary itself, which is not an accident. In recent years political parties around the world have produced surrealist campaigns, comic campaigns, conspiratorial campaigns, even beer-drinking campaigns. But on any list of strange elections, the 2026 parliamentary election in Hungary will stand out—this may be the world’s first post-reality campaign.
In actual reality, the news for Viktor Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, is not good. After 16 years in office, plus an earlier three-year term, Orbán has made his country the most corrupt in the European Union, one of the poorest, and certainly the least free. His political party, Fidesz, now controls most universities, the civil service, the high courts, and, through a network of oligarchs, almost all newspapers and broadcasters, as well as about a fifth of the economy, according to independent economists. General paranoia about Fidesz spies means that Budapest, once again, has become a city where people lower their voices when talking about politics in public.
With that kind of influence, Fidesz, which is well behind in most polls, cannot evade responsibility for Hungarian stagnation, and so neither the party nor its leader is talking much about Hungary, its falling industrial production, or its shrinking population. Instead—backed by Russian propagandists, the European far right, and now the Trump administration (about which more in a minute)—the party is directing a small fortune’s worth of posters and social-media videos toward a different goal: convincing Hungarians to fear sabotage, thievery, or even a military attack from … Ukraine.
This is an entirely false, even ludicrous threat. The Ukrainians have enough to do without starting a second war in Hungary. But Orbán, his government, his party, and many outsiders are now focused on making this threat seem true. Pay attention, because this may be the future of electoral politics: Multiple politicians from several countries are shoveling propaganda at an electorate in order to build terror of an enemy that doesn’t exist at all.
And…..
Now the political leaders who have long admired Orbán’s methods are gathering to help him. Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Budapest in February to endorse Orbán, even seeming to offer financial support “if you face things that threaten the stability of your country.” Vice President J. D. Vance is set to visit Budapest, probably after Easter. President Trump himself appeared on video at the Budapest meeting last Saturday of CPAC, the formerly mainstream-conservative organization that now organizes pop-up rallies on behalf of the international radical right. In his message, Trump offered his “complete and total endorsement” for Orbán, Russia’s closest European ally.
It is worth reading every word of this important article for the tactics being tested now by what Applebaum calls “the international radical right” in Hungary will be showing up here in the US this year.
The second article is from Dr. Timothy Snyder, The Next Coup Attempt: And How To Stop It (link). It begins:
We are seven months away from the most consequential midterm election in the history of the United States. Meanwhile, we are fighting a war. These are the structural conditions for a coup attempt in which a president tries to nullify elections and take permanent power as a dictator. If we see this, we can stop it, overcome the movement that brought us to this point, and make a turn towards something better.
President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Pete Hegseth are stuck in the logic of escalation, according to which the feeling of defeat today can be reversed by doing the first thing that comes to mind tomorrow. Trump is surrounded by people who are making money from the war; each day of war strengthens a warmongering lobby with personal access to the president. As the war lengthens, the chance that it will be exploited for a coup attempt increases.
Trump tells us that he is chiefly concerned with the permanence of his own comfort and power (think about ballroom and bunker), much of which he will lose when his party is defeated decisively in the midterms. He regularly declares his intention to meddle in the elections. His party backed a bill which would have turned elections into a sham. Trump wants to increase the defense budget by nearly 50% without any review of what the money is for; this is strategic nonsense, and has to be understood as a payoff for the men who, as he imagines, will help him install a dictatorship. Hegseth is meanwhile purging the highest officer ranks of people of principle.
It is up to us to put two and two together: Trump will seek to exploit the war (or the next one) to alter the elections. We bear responsibility for what comes next.
The eventuality can seem frightening, but Trump’s position is weak. The gambit of turning a foreign war into a domestic dictatorship is complicated and difficult. Its success depends on us. If the possibility of such a coup is not anticipated and the variants of the gambit are not called out as they emerge, he can succeed. He has attempted a coup (or, technically, a self-coup) once, in January 2021 -- there is no reason to think that he will not try to do so again.
As always, history can help us to imagine the immediate future. History does not repeat, but it does instruct. We know that war offers at least five kinds of opportunities for aspiring dictators. Let us consider the moves that Trump could make, and how they could be stopped. I offer them as five clear types; in practice, of course, they will be mixed and matched from day to day. But if we have the concepts in advance, we can recognize the threat, and turn any sort of coup attempt against Trump.
Dr. Snyder then goes on to describe the five things Trump may attempt. Yes, you should read every word of this article too!
At the urging of many of you, and heeding Dr. Snyder’s counsel to create greater public understanding of what Trump might do, we’ve launched a new series of conversations about how we can defend and strengthen our democracy here in the US, and ensure we have free and fair elections in November and a peaceful transfer of power in January. The first four are here:
So, yes, in the months ahead we will be studying and talking about what Trump might do this year to illicitly retain power:
in order to demystify these tactics, make them less “scary” and more widely understood
by making them more widely understood we make it far less likely they are successful
This year we are running against a political party that no longer feels bound by law or democratic convention; has already openly conspired with a hostile foreign power to win an election, and launched an insurrection to try to overturn another one; and has a desperate, corrupt, failing leader who fears prison and ruin if we win. We were surprised and unprepared for Russia’s intervention in 2016, and his assault on our elections in 2020 and 2021. We cannot be surprised and unprepared this year. Or scared. It is just the work we must do, like making phone calls and writing postcards and giving money to campaigns. The battlefield evolves, and so do we. It is key to how we will win in 2026 and take back Congress in 2027. Together.
This is how Trump kicked off Easter Sunday a few hours ago. Yes, he is scared, Epstein desperate, a failed and deeply unpopular leader. Here is more on all this from me in recent days:
To access our “Let’s Get To Work” set of actions, or to sign up for my talk in Bethesda this Thursday or our new phonebanks for Vote Yes in Virginia head here.
Keep working hard everyone. We have a country to save and an election to win this November!!!!!!!!!!!!- Simon
The Truth Social post was suspicious. Did he really write it? I have to wonder. Where has 47 disappeared to? Should we institute a Where's Waldo search? We are so grateful to you, Simon, and your work. Here in Idaho there are some bright spots. It looks like the GOP Rep and Senator have some competiton this year in the midterms.
Self-report - Our plucky patriotic (thanks Simon) protester tribe in Menlo Park took this week off - first since last April - nominally for Easter Sunday. But last Sunday, day after NK3, we did the “Honk and Wave” (the latest dance craze) as usual, and on our way through the farmers market had a lot of folks say they were there at NK3 and we got lots of thanks. But it’s like losing my sanity therapy for the week, there are about 20 of us regulars and we’ve become close in solidarity week after week. we’re one of several small groups up and down the SF Peninsula (and I’m sure across the country) that demonstrate week in and week out, it only takes a few people to take a stand on a busy intersection and be visible.