Dr. Cole, your constant badgering about this and ignoring of all the counter data I present is making you something akin to a troll here. We do not take our anxiety and negative sentiment and bring it in here. We just don't. I have engaged with your respectfully on this matter, repeatedly. What is most concerning is that you have repeatedly ignored all the data I have shared which shows that you and others are exaggerating the impact of the war on Biden's standing. Biden just had the best week of polling he's had in months for example. The Muslim population in MI is not "significant" - it's small. In 2020 it was 140,000 votes of 5.2m cast. While we have work to do to bring together all elements of our coalition, as I have repeatedly said, the exaggerations and outright lies of critics of Joe Biden on this issue is deeply disrespectful to fellow Democrats and to the President himself. If you want remain an active member of this community you cannot continue to come in here and dump all this crap all over us again and again. It's just not what we do here.
I'm going to note those numbers because I am getting the same story from people at other sites, how the Arab vote from MI is larger than Biden's margin of victory. And I push back that this vote is tiny and people don't believe me. While I hate to lose anyone from our coalition, this is just an issue where people are blinded by their own anger. So we may not get this vote back, but it also seems like people are working behind the scenes with a number of countries to at least get something done. I'm frankly tired of the negativity. I believe most of the low approval polling is just that Joe is old, people thought he was going to step aside, and once they accept that he isn't, they will mostly come home. If we can't win in November with this economy, against a rapist, fraudulent, lying SOB, I will jump into NY Harbor in a pair of Speedos and swim out to sea.....and let me tell you, that water is cold in Nov.
In this post I made a reasonable guess of how the Michigan Muslim vote could play out in 2024, and I come up with a net loss of 35,000 votes. More pessimistic scenerio is 45,000-50,000. Is this bad? Yes, not great. Will it cause us to lose Michigan? Unlikely. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/stocks-in-record-territory-trump
How many Union members are there in MI? I hope the UAW endorsement convinces some MI voters to dump Trump and support Biden.
I recall an article back in 2016 about blue collar voters swarming to Trump and some Union guy scratching his head because it was obvious that Trump was not going to do anything for blue collar workers - one only had to look at his treatment of his contractors many of whom Trump drove into bankruptcy.
It should definitely be a case of "Foool me once, shame on YOU. Fool my twice, shame on ME."
I’m excited to be part of this community. I joined after I heard Simon’s recent podcast with Ezra Klein. I’ve long been active politically, but have a special incentive this year because my congressman in PA’s Tenth Congressional District is 1/6 coup plotters Scott Perry. I’m supporting Mike O’Brien, a retired Marine Corps Top Gun fighter pilot whose campaign is going strong. More about Mike here: www.mikeobrienforpa.com. When he wins his primary, I hope some of the folks here will provide support from across the country. We will need it, and if we do the work we will win.
Does Commit2democracy curate their own voter lists and choose their own campaigns to support OR do they leverage Postcards to Voters or another group? I already am signed up for Postcards to Voters and Activate America.
If they do different campaigns I would sign up to diversify, but not if they are the same campaigns and scripts. I don't need to duplicate and clutter up my in box any more than it already is ;-)
Here is what my contact said: “Commit to Democracy works with several organizations and chooses campaigns from different ones, depending on how they fit with our overall 2024 strategic plan. We do work with Activate America. We also work with several Indivisible groups, Fair Fight and others. We get our NAMES lists directly from the campaign.”
Thanks, Simon. I’m happy to be here. I also enjoyed your appearance this week on Lawrence O’Donnell‘s show. Your attitude of constructive positivity is the tone we need heading into this election cycle because there seems to be so much negative energy among Democrats. As Anand Giridharadas likes to say, we need a movement to beat MAGA, not merely a campaign, and it feels like you are building one.
My little group, whom I affectionately refer to as The Tribe, makes a monthly donation in support of democracy. Last month it was Tom Suozzi. This month it’s North Carolina. I will put Mike O’Brien up for March.
Thanks very much for considering that, Judy. If you need any more information about Mike’s candidacy, please let me know. And if you do decide to support him, I would appreciate hearing about that, so that I can advise him personally.
As I've been writing, the polls are not all pointing in the same direction right now, as in the months before 2022. It's not who to believe, it's that essentially the only way to look at this data is say the race is close and competitive now, and there has been encouraging polling this week for Dems. Polling is like a sketch not a full painting, and we can only understand where we are in the aggregate not any one poll. The pollster who has Biden up 4 in Michigan is a very respected Michigan based pollster. With consumer sentiment rising as it has been we are likely to see slight gains for Biden in the coming weeks, as some of those national polls captured this week.
I know that you can have more than one recurring donation going to the same place through Act Blue. I did it inadvertently when I made a one-time donation and then okayed a monthly donation to a candidate I was already donating to monthly. Oops!
It wouldn't exactly be weekly, but you could start multiple smaller once per month donations and it would cycle through them so that you were making multiple smaller donations each month. This would certainly work if you wanted to make a donation mid-month and near the end of the month.
I imagine true weekly donations would require some reprogramming of the Act Blue website.
I’m very pleased with how we are working together and winning and I know we will have a blue tsunami in November but I wish I knew of organizations focused on registering young voters. Before Covid I went to high schools with Sonoma County Indivisible but everything is now Zoom. Anybody know about organizations in Marin or Sonoma County who are active in registration of new voters??? Let me know!
Do you know about The Civics Center? Simon first introduced the Hopium family to Laura Brill's fantastic organization - their mission is to make voter registration part of every high school in America. I highly recommend you check them out! https://www.thecivicscenter.org
Another suggestion would be to check with your local chapter of League of Women Voters (www.lwv.org). Most of the HS voter registration drives in HS are done by the students themselves or non-partisan groups like the Civics Center or LWV.
I was on webinar this past week with the Indivisble Marin group and they shared a linktree for the CA indivisible groups:
IMO TCC doing wonderful enormous work in this area as previously writer mentioned. Laura Brill offers a 360 program for any group wanting to support youth voting with focus on high school students.
In conversation with my 4-yr old granddaughter she suddenly asked, "Grandma, what's your superpower?" I thought a moment and said, "Loving. Loving is my superpower. What's yours?"
Later, writing postcards, fall 2023, I thought about that question and decided to use it, adding, "Voting is our Superpower!" Because, as Dems, it is--action--not just words. Now I think I'll write, "Voting on Day 1 is our Superpower!" And, as we confidently know, nothing helps your outlook more than walking out of the precinct, smiling knowingly at other early voters.
You're right, Simon. WE VOTE DAY ONE FOR A REASON. It works.
I have taken to sending out reminders to my friends about early voting with a link to the early voting sites and hours. NC has a long early voting period (IIRC,18 days) and traditionally the heaviest voting is the last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of the EV period. Some people just aren't tuned in... so a friendly reminder couldn't hurt.
I traditionally voted within the first couple of days of early voting. In 2023, the GOP-controlled legislature attempted to limit early voting by only opening one of the EV sites for the first several days. I'm not sure if this will be case for 2024 as well. So I'll commit to voting the first day that all (or at least the majority) of the EV sites open up.
Hey, Simon. Your column today, especially the part effectively rebutting what Nate Cohen said in his NYT article about why Dems have been winning special elections, is really good. I think it should get much wider play. I have been wondering for the past 1 1/2 - 2 years why political reporters haven't picked up on the whole panorama of grassroots Dems organizations that are interconnecting countrywide. Are they just focused on DC politics? I feel like we are all hiding in plain sight. I'm also not sure the DNC really knows how to engage this grassroots network. Maybe it's better they don't.
Re the game-changing strategy of "Voting on Day 1", I think it opens the door to a follow-on strategy of Texting on Day 2. That is, voters who cast their ballots on Day 1 not only remove themselves from campaign call lists, they self-identify as committed voters, voters who can be mobilized to encourage their personal networks of friends and family to vote. Many will be like us -- already active -- but more will be on the sidelines. So rather than taking them off the list for a GOTV call/text/knock, why not move them to a different list, for a "thanks for voting on Day 1, now please text your friends"? Let's activate these self-identified motivated voters!
I’m organizing a group of fellow activists in CA to make calls for Tom Suozzi. I haven’t been able to find an answer about his opponent’s party preference. I know she is supported by GOP, but is she registered as a Democrat?
She was a registered Democrat and I have no idea where they found her; she is an Ethiopian Jew from Israel and married to a Ukrainian. She has said that trump was a "great president." She has also demonstrated some problems with being honest, which I guess is sort of a prerequisite to run as an R in that district.....
1) Biden campaign is gearing up, impressive - listen to Pod Save America’s recent episode. They interview deputy campaign managers Quentin Fulks and Rob Flaherty Very smart. They are on top of all things digital and the new media environment. My favorite part - they are going to invest heavy in social not “linear” media (:30 second TV spots). If you are worried Team Biden is behind or doesn’t know what they are doing. Listen to this podcast, you will be reassured.
2) Biden is still Biden. I am sure others can share stories but a friend was just at a fundraiser with Biden. He was sharp on it and relating to everyone. Joe Biden is a good President and a happy and good campaigner. He’s going to beat the expectations game and Trump (and Trump will lose).
3) I attended the fundraiiser with Anderson Clayton this week and got to meet great Hopium people (including Simon). Anderson was/is amazing. Just a powerful speaker, motivator and presence. Tons of young Dems were there (clearly drawn to here). Anderson was VERY grateful to Simon/the Hopium community. The connection is real folks They need us and we can help them.
I was really impressed too with the deputy campaign managers, Biden maybe be old, but he has young dynamic staff. The "official campaign" has great people and the grassroots will be there in droves too.
From The Economist magazine: "Just look at the boom in factory construction: even accounting for inflation, investment in manufacturing facilities has more than doubled under Mr Biden, soaring to its highest on record."
Biden won the south carolina primary with over 96% of the vote but Michigan is coming up in a few weeks and the problem I hear is young voters, black male voters, and muslim voters are not happy with how the Israeli Hamas war is turning out. Jewish people are looking at the 150 hostages and Bidens base is looking at 27,000 dead civilians adults and children from Bebe's indiscriminate bombing and basically said unless Biden changes course on this war they may sit on the sidelines or vote for trump. BeBe wants to fight this war indefinitely and Biden can't wait that long. Michigan and Minnesota are the battleground states that are most affected by this.
Maga is deathly afraid of a kamala harris presidency. The last thing they want is another black president.
I am mourning the loss of Joe Madison, the black eagle from satelite radios urban view. He is irreplacable. He motivated black voters by asking them what are you going to do about the election instead of complaining. He used to say turn your moment into a movement
Dr. Cole, your constant badgering about this and ignoring of all the counter data I present is making you something akin to a troll here. We do not take our anxiety and negative sentiment and bring it in here. We just don't. I have engaged with your respectfully on this matter, repeatedly. What is most concerning is that you have repeatedly ignored all the data I have shared which shows that you and others are exaggerating the impact of the war on Biden's standing. Biden just had the best week of polling he's had in months for example. The Muslim population in MI is not "significant" - it's small. In 2020 it was 140,000 votes of 5.2m cast. While we have work to do to bring together all elements of our coalition, as I have repeatedly said, the exaggerations and outright lies of critics of Joe Biden on this issue is deeply disrespectful to fellow Democrats and to the President himself. If you want remain an active member of this community you cannot continue to come in here and dump all this crap all over us again and again. It's just not what we do here.
I'm going to note those numbers because I am getting the same story from people at other sites, how the Arab vote from MI is larger than Biden's margin of victory. And I push back that this vote is tiny and people don't believe me. While I hate to lose anyone from our coalition, this is just an issue where people are blinded by their own anger. So we may not get this vote back, but it also seems like people are working behind the scenes with a number of countries to at least get something done. I'm frankly tired of the negativity. I believe most of the low approval polling is just that Joe is old, people thought he was going to step aside, and once they accept that he isn't, they will mostly come home. If we can't win in November with this economy, against a rapist, fraudulent, lying SOB, I will jump into NY Harbor in a pair of Speedos and swim out to sea.....and let me tell you, that water is cold in Nov.
In this post I made a reasonable guess of how the Michigan Muslim vote could play out in 2024, and I come up with a net loss of 35,000 votes. More pessimistic scenerio is 45,000-50,000. Is this bad? Yes, not great. Will it cause us to lose Michigan? Unlikely. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/stocks-in-record-territory-trump
How many Union members are there in MI? I hope the UAW endorsement convinces some MI voters to dump Trump and support Biden.
I recall an article back in 2016 about blue collar voters swarming to Trump and some Union guy scratching his head because it was obvious that Trump was not going to do anything for blue collar workers - one only had to look at his treatment of his contractors many of whom Trump drove into bankruptcy.
It should definitely be a case of "Foool me once, shame on YOU. Fool my twice, shame on ME."
Wrote 100 post cards! It is easy and something I can do from across the country.
That is wonderful! Thank you so much
Super cool!
I’m excited to be part of this community. I joined after I heard Simon’s recent podcast with Ezra Klein. I’ve long been active politically, but have a special incentive this year because my congressman in PA’s Tenth Congressional District is 1/6 coup plotters Scott Perry. I’m supporting Mike O’Brien, a retired Marine Corps Top Gun fighter pilot whose campaign is going strong. More about Mike here: www.mikeobrienforpa.com. When he wins his primary, I hope some of the folks here will provide support from across the country. We will need it, and if we do the work we will win.
Harvey the group I am working with is commit to democracy. http://www.commit2democracy.com/
They are active in campaigns across the country. I suggest that you reach out to them about help in your district.
Hi Sky,
Does Commit2democracy curate their own voter lists and choose their own campaigns to support OR do they leverage Postcards to Voters or another group? I already am signed up for Postcards to Voters and Activate America.
If they do different campaigns I would sign up to diversify, but not if they are the same campaigns and scripts. I don't need to duplicate and clutter up my in box any more than it already is ;-)
I don’t know but will ask my contact. If they are different I may sign up with the other organizations.
Here is what my contact said: “Commit to Democracy works with several organizations and chooses campaigns from different ones, depending on how they fit with our overall 2024 strategic plan. We do work with Activate America. We also work with several Indivisible groups, Fair Fight and others. We get our NAMES lists directly from the campaign.”
If you want, signup for the CTD newsletter. As the year progresses towards November, you can decide if CTD adds anything new to your efforts.
http://www.commit2democracy.com/
And here is the link to their website.
https://committodemocracy-dot-yamm-track.appspot.com/2Xd--E-29NTDX1ax6oUgFj4C-9ggrgjQZXmXTX15mtyrlk6dqjQF-JJg4TkNT4zPwOmjx7KGqFFhnieQJdlBP2jXiBTIhsuuBc2_MlhI3cZLOH7tQ0aituCdGDL47AhnWkefn2KnWFUtzvI7_BO1gd_2qGYhsFwD7rFIqpEXQVewpHLtHub0dpMY
Thanks!!
Welcome Harvey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks, Simon. I’m happy to be here. I also enjoyed your appearance this week on Lawrence O’Donnell‘s show. Your attitude of constructive positivity is the tone we need heading into this election cycle because there seems to be so much negative energy among Democrats. As Anand Giridharadas likes to say, we need a movement to beat MAGA, not merely a campaign, and it feels like you are building one.
Harvey,
My little group, whom I affectionately refer to as The Tribe, makes a monthly donation in support of democracy. Last month it was Tom Suozzi. This month it’s North Carolina. I will put Mike O’Brien up for March.
Together we can do this! 💙💪
Judy, that is awesome. This cross-pollination in the chat today is beautiful to behold.
💯.
Thanks very much for considering that, Judy. If you need any more information about Mike’s candidacy, please let me know. And if you do decide to support him, I would appreciate hearing about that, so that I can advise him personally.
As a NC resident, I say thank you!!
Thanks for letting us know about Mike O'Brien's campaign. I donated right now. And will again when he wins his primary.
Thanks so much!
But 538 has more recent Michigan polls showing Biden behind by four. Who to believe?
As I've been writing, the polls are not all pointing in the same direction right now, as in the months before 2022. It's not who to believe, it's that essentially the only way to look at this data is say the race is close and competitive now, and there has been encouraging polling this week for Dems. Polling is like a sketch not a full painting, and we can only understand where we are in the aggregate not any one poll. The pollster who has Biden up 4 in Michigan is a very respected Michigan based pollster. With consumer sentiment rising as it has been we are likely to see slight gains for Biden in the coming weeks, as some of those national polls captured this week.
Simon, pls try to have Act Blue add the ability to make weekly donations not just monthly, especially for early races and primaries ‼️
I know that you can have more than one recurring donation going to the same place through Act Blue. I did it inadvertently when I made a one-time donation and then okayed a monthly donation to a candidate I was already donating to monthly. Oops!
It wouldn't exactly be weekly, but you could start multiple smaller once per month donations and it would cycle through them so that you were making multiple smaller donations each month. This would certainly work if you wanted to make a donation mid-month and near the end of the month.
I imagine true weekly donations would require some reprogramming of the Act Blue website.
I’m very pleased with how we are working together and winning and I know we will have a blue tsunami in November but I wish I knew of organizations focused on registering young voters. Before Covid I went to high schools with Sonoma County Indivisible but everything is now Zoom. Anybody know about organizations in Marin or Sonoma County who are active in registration of new voters??? Let me know!
Do you know about The Civics Center? Simon first introduced the Hopium family to Laura Brill's fantastic organization - their mission is to make voter registration part of every high school in America. I highly recommend you check them out! https://www.thecivicscenter.org
Another suggestion would be to check with your local chapter of League of Women Voters (www.lwv.org). Most of the HS voter registration drives in HS are done by the students themselves or non-partisan groups like the Civics Center or LWV.
I was on webinar this past week with the Indivisble Marin group and they shared a linktree for the CA indivisible groups:
https://linktr.ee/californiaindivisibles
Rec you check out : Voters of Tomorrow
https://votersoftomorrow.org/
and Dream for America
https://dream4america.org/about/williams-story/
IMO TCC doing wonderful enormous work in this area as previously writer mentioned. Laura Brill offers a 360 program for any group wanting to support youth voting with focus on high school students.
Field Team 6 goes to college campuses and registers new voters in swing districts in California. VERY well-organized efforts.
Voting on Day 1 is our Superpower!
In conversation with my 4-yr old granddaughter she suddenly asked, "Grandma, what's your superpower?" I thought a moment and said, "Loving. Loving is my superpower. What's yours?"
Later, writing postcards, fall 2023, I thought about that question and decided to use it, adding, "Voting is our Superpower!" Because, as Dems, it is--action--not just words. Now I think I'll write, "Voting on Day 1 is our Superpower!" And, as we confidently know, nothing helps your outlook more than walking out of the precinct, smiling knowingly at other early voters.
You're right, Simon. WE VOTE DAY ONE FOR A REASON. It works.
I have taken to sending out reminders to my friends about early voting with a link to the early voting sites and hours. NC has a long early voting period (IIRC,18 days) and traditionally the heaviest voting is the last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of the EV period. Some people just aren't tuned in... so a friendly reminder couldn't hurt.
I traditionally voted within the first couple of days of early voting. In 2023, the GOP-controlled legislature attempted to limit early voting by only opening one of the EV sites for the first several days. I'm not sure if this will be case for 2024 as well. So I'll commit to voting the first day that all (or at least the majority) of the EV sites open up.
Hey, Simon. Your column today, especially the part effectively rebutting what Nate Cohen said in his NYT article about why Dems have been winning special elections, is really good. I think it should get much wider play. I have been wondering for the past 1 1/2 - 2 years why political reporters haven't picked up on the whole panorama of grassroots Dems organizations that are interconnecting countrywide. Are they just focused on DC politics? I feel like we are all hiding in plain sight. I'm also not sure the DNC really knows how to engage this grassroots network. Maybe it's better they don't.
Working on a batch of letters for Suozzi now.
Re the game-changing strategy of "Voting on Day 1", I think it opens the door to a follow-on strategy of Texting on Day 2. That is, voters who cast their ballots on Day 1 not only remove themselves from campaign call lists, they self-identify as committed voters, voters who can be mobilized to encourage their personal networks of friends and family to vote. Many will be like us -- already active -- but more will be on the sidelines. So rather than taking them off the list for a GOTV call/text/knock, why not move them to a different list, for a "thanks for voting on Day 1, now please text your friends"? Let's activate these self-identified motivated voters!
I’m organizing a group of fellow activists in CA to make calls for Tom Suozzi. I haven’t been able to find an answer about his opponent’s party preference. I know she is supported by GOP, but is she registered as a Democrat?
She is backed and supported by the Republicans in Washington, who are spending millions and millions of dollars on this race.
She was a registered Democrat and I have no idea where they found her; she is an Ethiopian Jew from Israel and married to a Ukrainian. She has said that trump was a "great president." She has also demonstrated some problems with being honest, which I guess is sort of a prerequisite to run as an R in that district.....
🦄🦄🦄🦄
From a CBS report (https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/mazi-pilip-george-santos-special-election-who-is-running-republican/):
"Now, you remain a registered Democrat?" McLogan asked.
"When I came to this country, I registered as a Democrat," Pilip said.
That was in 2005, but now Pilip says her views align with the Republican party -- law enforcement, the economy and securing the border.
And yet we opened our doors to her and her husband.....stunning.
Some good news to share:
1) Biden campaign is gearing up, impressive - listen to Pod Save America’s recent episode. They interview deputy campaign managers Quentin Fulks and Rob Flaherty Very smart. They are on top of all things digital and the new media environment. My favorite part - they are going to invest heavy in social not “linear” media (:30 second TV spots). If you are worried Team Biden is behind or doesn’t know what they are doing. Listen to this podcast, you will be reassured.
2) Biden is still Biden. I am sure others can share stories but a friend was just at a fundraiser with Biden. He was sharp on it and relating to everyone. Joe Biden is a good President and a happy and good campaigner. He’s going to beat the expectations game and Trump (and Trump will lose).
3) I attended the fundraiiser with Anderson Clayton this week and got to meet great Hopium people (including Simon). Anderson was/is amazing. Just a powerful speaker, motivator and presence. Tons of young Dems were there (clearly drawn to here). Anderson was VERY grateful to Simon/the Hopium community. The connection is real folks They need us and we can help them.
Keep up the good work everyone.
I was really impressed too with the deputy campaign managers, Biden maybe be old, but he has young dynamic staff. The "official campaign" has great people and the grassroots will be there in droves too.
Here's an informative and fun quiz by the Washington Post Editorial Board, Opinion | Mad at Biden over the economy? Take our quiz: https://substack.com/redirect/07e0cdc1-fc86-4b87-90ac-5613df703f6c?j=eyJ1IjoiMjdpZ3YxIn0.WohXgCGlCEahwSYzanySMRJzjSC1UBBaxgmd31JeObM
Hi Simon! I’m not an artist but I would love to have Hopium bumper stickers saying “VOTE ON DAY 1!”
Especially in states like mine (CT) where 2024 is the first year for us to have Early Voting. Any artists who might like to create that?
From The Economist magazine: "Just look at the boom in factory construction: even accounting for inflation, investment in manufacturing facilities has more than doubled under Mr Biden, soaring to its highest on record."
Biden won the south carolina primary with over 96% of the vote but Michigan is coming up in a few weeks and the problem I hear is young voters, black male voters, and muslim voters are not happy with how the Israeli Hamas war is turning out. Jewish people are looking at the 150 hostages and Bidens base is looking at 27,000 dead civilians adults and children from Bebe's indiscriminate bombing and basically said unless Biden changes course on this war they may sit on the sidelines or vote for trump. BeBe wants to fight this war indefinitely and Biden can't wait that long. Michigan and Minnesota are the battleground states that are most affected by this.
Maga is deathly afraid of a kamala harris presidency. The last thing they want is another black president.
I am mourning the loss of Joe Madison, the black eagle from satelite radios urban view. He is irreplacable. He motivated black voters by asking them what are you going to do about the election instead of complaining. He used to say turn your moment into a movement