News in the UK: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is being roundly criticized and denounced (even by many members of his own Conservative Party) for leaving a D-Day ceremony in France early. Sunak’s reason? A political interview with ITV.
Josh, what I wrote was that structurally I felt we could win by high single digits, maybe 10, get to 55 as I called it. It was always aspirational, and while it remains a possibility a closer election is far more likely today. I don't believe I ever said double digits.
And push some positive messages about achievements, especially ones you would think would be broadly appreciated, like insulin and other drug price controls, and contrasts, like GOP Senate turning down protection of contraception (the right to the pill, the condom, the IUD, sponge, spell it out), and other contrasts - GOP state govts (FLA) not letting cities guarantee workers breaks for heat.
Now for people you know who are MAGA-ites, are just really habitually conservative and just have some kind of fixed hang-up on Democrats, people who, if you're honest with yourself from what you can tell about them [but *don't just judge based on color, race, gender, age, dress, fashion even though those might be sadly predictive*, at least gather other indicators like what they say on political matters or their choice of bumper stickers with a political implication, if any], just won't for a Democrat, I've got the Trump-voter demotivation video for you, from non-political sports guy Colin Cowherd.
“ The Biden campaign is "announcing a new national Republican engagement director:" former Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s chief of staff Austin Weatherford will be "the leader of Republican outreach," Isaac Dovere reports”
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should be added to this Republican outreach. He has high visibility, enjoys high credibility with the target group, and is very articulate. Here is a great example of that – Arnold’s remarks after the January 6th Insurrection and Coup Attempt: (Definitely worth 7.5 minutes of your time!)
Congratulationa on reaching empty nester status. Enjoy all the festivities. I will be in Normandy this summer with my 92 year old dad and my 90 year old mom. It was the Greatest Generation.
It’s sad that most of those from the “greatest generation” are faux news watchers now who would’ve probably fought on the side of the Nazis today. Hopefully your family has stayed true to the values they fought for in WWII.
Hi Simon, two quick questions if I may. In spite the high quality polling data you refer us to that shows the race being close and competitive now---do you still instinctively foresee a real possibility Biden can win in a landslide of sorts, winning both the popular vote and electoral college by significant margins which cannot be effectively challenged by the GOP or God forbid, the Supreme Court (reminiscent of 2000 which is a fear many hold onto these days)?!? Many anticipate the election will be close in November when all set and done and that may be correct, but I remain a persistent outlier that the matters of women's healthcare and abortion rights will drive out a massive pink wave, surpassing perhaps even our own expectations. Also, have you considered going on Bill Maher? I think you would be great on his panel and though I typically take to Maher more often than not, he gets too hung up on the "Ruth Bader-Biden" narrative for my taste. As you know, he reaches a very wide audience (many Independents/Moderates included) and I believe your data/perspective in conversation with him would be highly effective for those who watch his show. He's had a tendency to theoretically sway some voters in the past and though we know he supports Biden and will vote for him, his cynicism right now I fear could end up being somewhat counterproductive towards the turnout we're pushing for. Thanks again for all you do!
Blake II so agree with you. on the pink wave. Turn out will be massive. Also I think Trump so under estimates Biden's debate skills. I predict Biden will run circles around Trump and people who watch will see very clearly which candidate is senile, hence adding to Biden's bigger turnout
It was a beautiful and inspiring dday ceremony. Probably the last with actual dday vets, I'm glad Biden got to do it.
"it is a close, competitive election, with neither candidate leading outside the margin of error in the national popular vote or states getting to 270": just disgusting and heartbreaking to see this considering Trump is the other candidate. A shame on our country.
Thanks for sharing your fantastic interview with Jane Kleeb - she's terrific! Especially happy to hear her explain that Nebraska is a "cheap" state, meaning our invested dollars go much further there. Increased efficiency is every advertisers' dream!
Congrats on your daughter's graduation - have a wonderful celebration!
I love love love all of this. I really appreciate you explaining how the party electoral machine works and why our structural advantage really matters. Also thanks for pointing out that Trump is trying to make up for lack of funds and infrastructure with a psyops campaign trying to depress our enthusiasm. I find that even progressive media isn’t covering these facts nearly enough. Loved the interview and am donating to the Blue Dot now.
OK, Simon, you got another donation out of me, this time for Nebraska's blue dot. As long as my 2 cats can still get the expensive cat food, we're good. ;)
The electorate is not binary: Republican-Democrat. . The other constituencies need to be courted and harvested. Independents and women will carry this next election, and women will save our democracy.
In 2016, fully 53 % of White women voted for Trump. I was shocked that this could happen after the vile "Grab ’em by the Pussy" tapes were released and received wide publicity.
This time, hopefully women of all ethnicities will massively voter to reject Trump. Furthermore, I hope they’ll convince their "worse halves" to do the same!
Can you believe 91% of black women voted for Clinton, bringing women as a whole to 54% for Clinton. The #1 issue was jobs. Biden has blown jobs as an issue out of the water.
It stuns me that President Biden gets so little credit for what he has achieved. Sure, it’s tempting to blame it all on "media bias" – of which there is plenty. But I would argue that Team Blue has been rather inept at setting the narrative and influencing public perception. (Hopium and other ground-level organizations are hopefully changing this!)
A shocking example of *failed narrative*: The percentage of Republican voters who believe the 2020 election was stolen has in fact increased markedly after 6 January 2021. This despite all the clear evidence available.
This is a phenomenal (and depressing) Democratic failure of narrative!
.
PS. We are seeing some really great Biden-Harris ads. But it would be useful to know where they are being broadcast and with what frequency. (Likewise with the impressive messaging from Meidas Touch and The Lincoln Project. What is their target audience, what is their reach?)
The point is that the Republican-Democrat ethos is locked in. We won’t make a dent in that going forward. We can sway the independents and I always say “Hell Hath No Fury”. We can inflame women scorned by the Supreme Court.
But what you write doesn’t explain the *marked increase* in the percentage of Republicans who believe the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen. It doesn’t explain how Democrats and Democratic spokespersons allowed this to happen. First and foremost: It doesn’t explain why Democrats *allowed* MAGA opinion influencers to be so much more effective than they themselves were!
And because of this, we and the Biden-Harris Campaign have some phenomenally heavy lifting to do before Election Day. Lifting that should not, to this degree, have been necessary. Onward!
Let me be more direct. The. Brainwashhing has already been done. We cannot unbrainwash. Unbrainwashhng now is a lost cause. Too much energy for a little result is all that is possible. There is not enough time available. It will take years or decades. Right now, pound on the independents. Pound on women voters. Pound on and register youth voters. I continue to remember the Holocaust-sponsoring brainwashed German populace at the close of WWII. It took decades to unbrainwash them. We can defeat Trumpism, but it will not be done by unbrainwashing efforts now. Any effort to that end now undermines the establishment and building of a coalition that can perform a massive anti-Trump assault at the polls this coming November.
Yesterday was the first Wednesday of the month, which I when I host my regular "Work > Worry Wednesday" postcarding parties here in West L.A. We had 42 of us working last night, and by the time we were done, we'd knocked out 625 handwritten letters and postcards to low-propensity Dem-leaning voters in NC, NV, WI, and GA. Not bad for a night's work! Let's keep it rolling!!
I don't believe the Senate will wind up 50/50 after Election Day. The current crop of clowns running on the GOP side are going to lose. I really believe Cruz, Hee Hawley and Prick Scott will lose their seats. Maybe another one or two upsets will occur. to offset losing in West Virginia but the Senate will wind up with 52 or 53 on our side.
"It’s rare for public opinion in the US to move rapidly."
A notable exception was, of course, the immediate aftermath of Director James Comey’s announcement that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. The subsequent meta-analyses of polls clearly show a decisive swing, reflecting the well-documented fact that Comey’s announcement cost Hillary the 2016 election.
News in the UK: Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is being roundly criticized and denounced (even by many members of his own Conservative Party) for leaving a D-Day ceremony in France early. Sunak’s reason? A political interview with ITV.
Josh, what I wrote was that structurally I felt we could win by high single digits, maybe 10, get to 55 as I called it. It was always aspirational, and while it remains a possibility a closer election is far more likely today. I don't believe I ever said double digits.
Thanks, Simon. That sort of already answers the first of two questions I recently posted.
There is another!
Congratulation on the graduate! Enjoy your celebration with family!
Hey all -
With our team, gotta be loud and proud.
Gotta be confident in front of all.
And push some positive messages about achievements, especially ones you would think would be broadly appreciated, like insulin and other drug price controls, and contrasts, like GOP Senate turning down protection of contraception (the right to the pill, the condom, the IUD, sponge, spell it out), and other contrasts - GOP state govts (FLA) not letting cities guarantee workers breaks for heat.
Now for people you know who are MAGA-ites, are just really habitually conservative and just have some kind of fixed hang-up on Democrats, people who, if you're honest with yourself from what you can tell about them [but *don't just judge based on color, race, gender, age, dress, fashion even though those might be sadly predictive*, at least gather other indicators like what they say on political matters or their choice of bumper stickers with a political implication, if any], just won't for a Democrat, I've got the Trump-voter demotivation video for you, from non-political sports guy Colin Cowherd.
Here is link. But it is probably best to find it direct from the Colin Cowherd source: https://x.com/LoseCruzPAC/status/1797373423800271086
Saw the clip from Tim Miller, great video from Colin that hopefully will resonate with soft R's and independents
That’s a good clip! Some good ideas in there.
Biden’s campaign is doing it:
“ The Biden campaign is "announcing a new national Republican engagement director:" former Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s chief of staff Austin Weatherford will be "the leader of Republican outreach," Isaac Dovere reports”
Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger should be added to this Republican outreach. He has high visibility, enjoys high credibility with the target group, and is very articulate. Here is a great example of that – Arnold’s remarks after the January 6th Insurrection and Coup Attempt: (Definitely worth 7.5 minutes of your time!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_P-0I6sAck
Let the Terminator help terminate Trump and his proto-fascist MAGA movement!
Congratulationa on reaching empty nester status. Enjoy all the festivities. I will be in Normandy this summer with my 92 year old dad and my 90 year old mom. It was the Greatest Generation.
It’s sad that most of those from the “greatest generation” are faux news watchers now who would’ve probably fought on the side of the Nazis today. Hopefully your family has stayed true to the values they fought for in WWII.
Hi Simon, two quick questions if I may. In spite the high quality polling data you refer us to that shows the race being close and competitive now---do you still instinctively foresee a real possibility Biden can win in a landslide of sorts, winning both the popular vote and electoral college by significant margins which cannot be effectively challenged by the GOP or God forbid, the Supreme Court (reminiscent of 2000 which is a fear many hold onto these days)?!? Many anticipate the election will be close in November when all set and done and that may be correct, but I remain a persistent outlier that the matters of women's healthcare and abortion rights will drive out a massive pink wave, surpassing perhaps even our own expectations. Also, have you considered going on Bill Maher? I think you would be great on his panel and though I typically take to Maher more often than not, he gets too hung up on the "Ruth Bader-Biden" narrative for my taste. As you know, he reaches a very wide audience (many Independents/Moderates included) and I believe your data/perspective in conversation with him would be highly effective for those who watch his show. He's had a tendency to theoretically sway some voters in the past and though we know he supports Biden and will vote for him, his cynicism right now I fear could end up being somewhat counterproductive towards the turnout we're pushing for. Thanks again for all you do!
Blake II so agree with you. on the pink wave. Turn out will be massive. Also I think Trump so under estimates Biden's debate skills. I predict Biden will run circles around Trump and people who watch will see very clearly which candidate is senile, hence adding to Biden's bigger turnout
It was a beautiful and inspiring dday ceremony. Probably the last with actual dday vets, I'm glad Biden got to do it.
"it is a close, competitive election, with neither candidate leading outside the margin of error in the national popular vote or states getting to 270": just disgusting and heartbreaking to see this considering Trump is the other candidate. A shame on our country.
Thanks for sharing your fantastic interview with Jane Kleeb - she's terrific! Especially happy to hear her explain that Nebraska is a "cheap" state, meaning our invested dollars go much further there. Increased efficiency is every advertisers' dream!
Congrats on your daughter's graduation - have a wonderful celebration!
Good information about Nebraska. Will spread the word.
I love love love all of this. I really appreciate you explaining how the party electoral machine works and why our structural advantage really matters. Also thanks for pointing out that Trump is trying to make up for lack of funds and infrastructure with a psyops campaign trying to depress our enthusiasm. I find that even progressive media isn’t covering these facts nearly enough. Loved the interview and am donating to the Blue Dot now.
OK, Simon, you got another donation out of me, this time for Nebraska's blue dot. As long as my 2 cats can still get the expensive cat food, we're good. ;)
The electorate is not binary: Republican-Democrat. . The other constituencies need to be courted and harvested. Independents and women will carry this next election, and women will save our democracy.
In 2016, fully 53 % of White women voted for Trump. I was shocked that this could happen after the vile "Grab ’em by the Pussy" tapes were released and received wide publicity.
This time, hopefully women of all ethnicities will massively voter to reject Trump. Furthermore, I hope they’ll convince their "worse halves" to do the same!
Can you believe 91% of black women voted for Clinton, bringing women as a whole to 54% for Clinton. The #1 issue was jobs. Biden has blown jobs as an issue out of the water.
I did know that, actually.
It stuns me that President Biden gets so little credit for what he has achieved. Sure, it’s tempting to blame it all on "media bias" – of which there is plenty. But I would argue that Team Blue has been rather inept at setting the narrative and influencing public perception. (Hopium and other ground-level organizations are hopefully changing this!)
A shocking example of *failed narrative*: The percentage of Republican voters who believe the 2020 election was stolen has in fact increased markedly after 6 January 2021. This despite all the clear evidence available.
This is a phenomenal (and depressing) Democratic failure of narrative!
.
PS. We are seeing some really great Biden-Harris ads. But it would be useful to know where they are being broadcast and with what frequency. (Likewise with the impressive messaging from Meidas Touch and The Lincoln Project. What is their target audience, what is their reach?)
The point is that the Republican-Democrat ethos is locked in. We won’t make a dent in that going forward. We can sway the independents and I always say “Hell Hath No Fury”. We can inflame women scorned by the Supreme Court.
Carl, yes, this is largely true.
But what you write doesn’t explain the *marked increase* in the percentage of Republicans who believe the 2020 Presidential Election was stolen. It doesn’t explain how Democrats and Democratic spokespersons allowed this to happen. First and foremost: It doesn’t explain why Democrats *allowed* MAGA opinion influencers to be so much more effective than they themselves were!
And because of this, we and the Biden-Harris Campaign have some phenomenally heavy lifting to do before Election Day. Lifting that should not, to this degree, have been necessary. Onward!
Let me be more direct. The. Brainwashhing has already been done. We cannot unbrainwash. Unbrainwashhng now is a lost cause. Too much energy for a little result is all that is possible. There is not enough time available. It will take years or decades. Right now, pound on the independents. Pound on women voters. Pound on and register youth voters. I continue to remember the Holocaust-sponsoring brainwashed German populace at the close of WWII. It took decades to unbrainwash them. We can defeat Trumpism, but it will not be done by unbrainwashing efforts now. Any effort to that end now undermines the establishment and building of a coalition that can perform a massive anti-Trump assault at the polls this coming November.
Yesterday was the first Wednesday of the month, which I when I host my regular "Work > Worry Wednesday" postcarding parties here in West L.A. We had 42 of us working last night, and by the time we were done, we'd knocked out 625 handwritten letters and postcards to low-propensity Dem-leaning voters in NC, NV, WI, and GA. Not bad for a night's work! Let's keep it rolling!!
Way to go!!!
Amazing Patrick and his democracy posse! That is incredible
I don't believe the Senate will wind up 50/50 after Election Day. The current crop of clowns running on the GOP side are going to lose. I really believe Cruz, Hee Hawley and Prick Scott will lose their seats. Maybe another one or two upsets will occur. to offset losing in West Virginia but the Senate will wind up with 52 or 53 on our side.
If this happens, I’ll upgrade my post-election celebratory Scotch!
"It’s rare for public opinion in the US to move rapidly."
A notable exception was, of course, the immediate aftermath of Director James Comey’s announcement that the FBI was reopening its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails. The subsequent meta-analyses of polls clearly show a decisive swing, reflecting the well-documented fact that Comey’s announcement cost Hillary the 2016 election.