3. National polling is not an accurate predictor of presidential election outcomes … “Despite losing the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, Republicans held the White House for 12 years during this period.”
4. There are only a handful of states that determine control of power in the U.S. … “[T]here are at most eight states … that will determine the outcome [of the 2024 election]. The only polls that matter in the upcoming presidential election are in these swing states.”
5. The potency of abortion as a political issue will increase over time … “Republican efforts to further restrict a woman’s right to choose at the state level runs counter to the views of a majority of the country and will further increase the political potency of the issue.”
I very much appreciate your clarification of polling. I have long suspected that it doesn’t reflect much. It feels to much like watching a game show or horse race. At this point, I think people who are serious about keeping democracy strong are working hard, very busy and just plowing ahead. I sense that there is mounting frustration in places like Florida and Texas to dump authoritarian government and overreach. We need to seriously help those folks. That’s no
We had dinner with old friends in rural Maine. They are a rare beed-- Democrats. He said, I'm just not excited about Joe Biden. His wife responded "Thank goodness for a sane man with good values."
Welcome back! The only polling I will consider is what you say is legitimate. I think the MAGAs are manipulating any polling now to keep trump in the lead and to scare the rest of us. It will not work.
What about Virginia? There are three females running. If Gov. Glenn Youngkin get a super majority of Republicans in he will get a bill passed to limit abortion to 15 weeks! We have to work to get the vote out for VA State Senate, Jade Harris, for the VA House of Delegates, Esther Nizer, and Mary Person.
Hey Simon ~ I would be very interested in your thoughts on my following comment.
I just listened to a conversation with Steve Schmidt and Barack's political strategist Bill Burton & boy oh boy am I frustrated. First of all Steve just can't get over this Biden ageism, how the public doesn't want another Trump v Biden, and along with Burton, how Biden's team is so far removed from what is important to American's and what his campaign strategy should be. Simon, I write postcards on behalf of our Native American's in getting out the vote, write postcards for the important elections of the day, I am active in posting Biden pics & articles to social media & I work with Indivisible & so much more. Here are two very influential strategists who have much more public attention/engagement than I will ever have & here they are working AGAINST what this grassroots activist is working toward. Are they trying to get Trunmp re-elected by dividing Democrats? Fortunately many on Steve's substack disagreed with Steve on his Biden ageism. And both (Steve & Bill) agreed that Biden running on his economic, legislative accomplishments is not what he should be doing? WHAT!!!!! Since when is this not a good plan, to run on positive accomplishments during your presidential term? Am I dumb or what??? I do not understand. Has the American public changed that much? I DO continue to push back when ever Steve starts his rants. What is the solution for crap like this? Oh, I am staying the course
Super newsletter today
Doug Sosnik's latest memo makes similar points
3. National polling is not an accurate predictor of presidential election outcomes … “Despite losing the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections, Republicans held the White House for 12 years during this period.”
4. There are only a handful of states that determine control of power in the U.S. … “[T]here are at most eight states … that will determine the outcome [of the 2024 election]. The only polls that matter in the upcoming presidential election are in these swing states.”
5. The potency of abortion as a political issue will increase over time … “Republican efforts to further restrict a woman’s right to choose at the state level runs counter to the views of a majority of the country and will further increase the political potency of the issue.”
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/09/02/the-conservative-case-for-keeping-trump-off-the-ballot-00113830
I very much appreciate your clarification of polling. I have long suspected that it doesn’t reflect much. It feels to much like watching a game show or horse race. At this point, I think people who are serious about keeping democracy strong are working hard, very busy and just plowing ahead. I sense that there is mounting frustration in places like Florida and Texas to dump authoritarian government and overreach. We need to seriously help those folks. That’s no
We had dinner with old friends in rural Maine. They are a rare beed-- Democrats. He said, I'm just not excited about Joe Biden. His wife responded "Thank goodness for a sane man with good values."
Should be a billboard. Steven Krugman
Being “excited” about Biden is irrelevant. Be excited about saving Democracy.
I’d rephrase the statement “ Joe Biden has been a good president” to “Joe Biden IS a good president.” Don’t want the guy to sound like a has been!
Welcome back! The only polling I will consider is what you say is legitimate. I think the MAGAs are manipulating any polling now to keep trump in the lead and to scare the rest of us. It will not work.
What about Virginia? There are three females running. If Gov. Glenn Youngkin get a super majority of Republicans in he will get a bill passed to limit abortion to 15 weeks! We have to work to get the vote out for VA State Senate, Jade Harris, for the VA House of Delegates, Esther Nizer, and Mary Person.
Welcome to the community to all the newbies!
Hey Simon ~ I would be very interested in your thoughts on my following comment.
I just listened to a conversation with Steve Schmidt and Barack's political strategist Bill Burton & boy oh boy am I frustrated. First of all Steve just can't get over this Biden ageism, how the public doesn't want another Trump v Biden, and along with Burton, how Biden's team is so far removed from what is important to American's and what his campaign strategy should be. Simon, I write postcards on behalf of our Native American's in getting out the vote, write postcards for the important elections of the day, I am active in posting Biden pics & articles to social media & I work with Indivisible & so much more. Here are two very influential strategists who have much more public attention/engagement than I will ever have & here they are working AGAINST what this grassroots activist is working toward. Are they trying to get Trunmp re-elected by dividing Democrats? Fortunately many on Steve's substack disagreed with Steve on his Biden ageism. And both (Steve & Bill) agreed that Biden running on his economic, legislative accomplishments is not what he should be doing? WHAT!!!!! Since when is this not a good plan, to run on positive accomplishments during your presidential term? Am I dumb or what??? I do not understand. Has the American public changed that much? I DO continue to push back when ever Steve starts his rants. What is the solution for crap like this? Oh, I am staying the course
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