Biden’s poor performance goes well beyond the debate. He often looks a bit confused, doesn’t articulate messages well and often trails off before finishing a sentence. Not good. That’s why the polls are looking worse, despite Biden having massively outspending trump.
David, a lot of ways you could have made this point but comparing me to Trump and say that I sound like a moron was outside the bounds of how we talk to one another here. I am taking this post down and suspending you from posting for a week. When you return, if you do, try harder to express yourself here in respectful ways. Thank you.
Simon, how do you think the differences between the ground-game of the Trump Campaign and Republican Party on the one hand, and the Biden-Harris Campaign and Democratic-aligned ground-game operations on the other, is likely to impact the 2024 election?
Is that the game-changer that lets us beat the polls, win the election and save American democracy?
In 2020, the Biden-Harris basically shut down its door-to-door efforts due to covid – and still won by over 7 million votes.
2024 seems very different…
Very early the Biden-Harris Campaign established a large network of field offices, especially in swing states.
ON THE OTHER HAND, the 2024 polling does not look good, especially compared to 2020. But how accurate are the polls?
In every special election since Dobbs, Democrats have over-performed all polling, sometimes massively. And breaking with historic patterns, there was no Red Wave midterm election. Meanwhile, Republicans have underperformed, as did Trump in primary after primary.
You might say that, since Dobbs, America has seen a series of PINK WAVE elections!
Seven times abortion rights have been on the ballot, and every time we have won the referendum, even in conservative Kansas – and with margins that far exceeded what polling indicated.
In November, we know abortion will again be on the ballot in Florida, Colorado, Maryland, New York, South Dakota, and possibly also in Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana and Nebraska. Some of these are swing states.
There more women voters than men, and in election after election female turnout has been higher than male turnout. As far as I can see, the likely-voter polling models fail to reflect this. Perhaps that partly explains why polling is failing to accurately predict these successes? Moreover, studies reveal a growing difference in voting preferences between the genders…
AN ESPECIALLY STRIKING DEVELOPMENT is the plethora of organizations that have arisen in response to Dobbs and the threat of a second democracy-destroying Trump presidency. The blueprint is clear: Trump’s Project 2025 – and they are already compiling names of loyalists.
The vast network of pro-democracy organizations that are rising to meat this threat is now intensely engaged in record-setting fundraising, voter registration and GOTV efforts. We are seeing massive postcarding, texting, calling and door-to-door canvassing. (In addition are the campaigns, e.g. from Red Wine & Blue, to inform voters about the dangers of Project 2025.)
TURNOUT WILL BE FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN POLLS. If turnout of Democratic-leaning voters is 2–3 percent greater that Republican turnout, surely that will be decisive in many swing states and in close down-ballot races? And if our turnout is at Scandinavian levels (80 percent or more), while Republicans are stuck at 2020 levels (a mere 67 percent), then won’t we see a Blue Tsunami?
Will 2024 be the election that gives us a Pink Tsunami – and thus a Blue Tsunami that once again saves American democracy?
Surely voter turnout is the WINNING 2024 WILDCARD?
While it’s probably true that higher turnout would benefit the democrats, there’s actually been some polling that unusually suggests the opposite; Trump often seems to do better among lower propensity voter demographics in these polls, while Biden does better with reliable high-propensity voters (including older white people, peculiarly for a democrat), suggesting that a lower turnout election might actually favor *Biden*.
Now, this is obviously so strange historically that I’d caution against jumping to conclusions based on it, but it is something to watch, if for no other reason than that it’s a very odd, “backwards day” sort of pattern, which might suggest deeper issues with polling right now as a whole.
One thing that leads me to believe this election is very different from the past is the fact that my grandfather and his wife, who are life-long conservatives who I don’t think have failed to vote for a republican since the parties “switched” back in the ‘60s, are not planning on voting for either Trump or Biden this election. It would obviously nice if they were voting for Biden, but even just the simple fact that such staunch conservatives as them would rather sit out the election than vote for Trump? That to me suggests Trump is in a lot more trouble than people think (and for the record, they were saying *after* the debate).
Thanks for sharing, especially your personal anecdote.
When I say it all comes down to turnout, I don’t mean turnout in general. I too have seen articles referring to studies such as you mention.
However, the question is *who* can turn out their voters. We must do so at significantly higher rates than MAGA Republicans do. And if we do, then we win. It’s that simple.
I love this comment. I wrote a book about civil society and democratization in Argentina, South Africa, and Tajikiistan. See www.importingdemocracy.org for a free e copy. It is true here as well. This is not in any way to downplay political parties!
One thing to keep in mind about the polling in 2020 was that it actually significantly overestimated the democrats, especially in down-ballot races. Sure, Biden won by a healthy margin and the democrats got a trifecta (albeit only very narrowly with the senate, literally only just a majority with Harris voting, and that was only after a later run-off election in Georgia), but polling was suggesting like, a blue tsunami, that even thoroughly red states like *Texas* were in play, so democrats actually underperformed polling in 2020.
It’s possible that this overestimation happened in part bc polling was intentionally weighted more toward democrats in an attempt to make up foe how polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and it seems that in 2022 they may have again over-corrected in the other direction, thus the “red wave” that never truly materialized. The patterns of polling this year generally resemble 2022, so it’s possible the underestimation of democrats is still an issue, as is the fact that there are known biases toward those with right-leaning politics that are endemic in two of the main data collection methods these weekly opinion polls use (landline telephone surveys, which are obviously biased toward older people, who also trend more conservative; and also online opt-in surveys, which Pew Research found earlier this year are slanted toward younger respondents who tend to be right wing, trolls, and liars who are only doing surveys for money) is causing the polling to favor Trump more than it should, and I think this is something Simon has talked about a lot, with how democrats have been consistently overperforming polling expectations in actual elections since 2022.
Once again, this should not be an excuse to get complacent, or to dismiss polling trends entirely, but it would not surprise if an election that happened today ended up being more favorable to Biden than polling is suggesting. Polling is complicated, and this would be *far* from the first time it was inaccurate (in 2012 I remember people were freaked out by polls showing Romney comfortably ahead Obama well into October, but Obama still won).
Our party is much stronger than theirs, as long as we stick together. We didn't have a ground operation in 2020, and may believed it cost us a 1-2 pts. The team running B-H are organizers, field people, and with all of you doing what you are going to do we should have the most powerful political machine we've ever had this year. It's going to matter, and Trump cannot match it. It's why we have to keep working - it is literally how we win. We just have to our work them. They have the oligarchs. We have all of you. I would much rather have all of you.
Sticking together is important and why it's not good when one senator after another tells Joe to drop out. I wish Tester and Brown would hold off on their statements for now. Dems must be united. They were before the debate. It's very frustrating. Keep their eye on Trump.
We will win this! I am sharing my battle-tested voter pitch with you all:
Elections are not beauty pageant contests. The media culture in the US has transformed politics into a show business or entertainment industry. However, in real life, as we learned painfully from Mitch McConnell, "Elections Have Consequences."
In fact, for many people, it can be a matter of life or death:
-Whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger,
-Whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness,
-Whether you can feel safe attending an event without the fear of being shot with an AR-15,
-Whether a family can seek due process for asylum because their life is at risk in their home country.
All these issues are determined by decisions made by elected politicians, whether to take action or ignore them.
So, no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking man to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you on various issues.
Thus, based on their records, who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office when these crucial issues arise?
Donald Trump, the man who bankrupted so many businesses, was found liable for fraud multiple times, liable for sexual assault, and convicted felon?
Here is the reasoning: Many potential voters don't vote because, for them, electing politicians seems like a show that has no impact on their lives. This is especially true in the Black immigrant community where I'm from. Using this pitch, I convinced family members to vote for the first time after 20+ years of citizenship in the U.S. in 2020. How? By helping them understand that every decision or non-decision made by a politician, even on the most minor issues, can affect their lives. The protests following the murder of George Floyd made this even more vivid.
“The worst illiterate is the political illiterate, he doesn’t hear, doesn’t speak, nor participates in the political events. He doesn’t know the cost of life, the price of the bean, of the fish, of the flour, of the rent, of the shoes and of the medicine, all depends on political decisions. The political illiterate is so stupid that he is proud and swells his chest saying that he hates politics. The imbecile doesn’t know that, from his political ignorance is born the prostitute, the abandoned child, and the worst thieves of all, the bad politician, corrupted and flunky of the national and multinational companies.” - Bertolt Brecht
Unfortunately, this is where Trump brought new voters into politics, but with a destructive ideology. We need to do similar work, but in our own way. Bernie was the only one on the left who came close. Biden succeeded, but with a boost from events like COVID and the George Floyd murder."
"The first time it was reported that our friends were being butchered there was a cry of horror. Then a hundred were butchered. But when a thousand were butchered and there was no end to the butchery, a blanket of silence spread.
When evil-doing comes like falling rain, nobody calls out "stop!"
When crimes begin to pile up they become invisible. When sufferings become unendurable the cries are no longer heard. The cries, too, fall like rain in summer."
These are some of the same discussions I’ve had with my friends and family, especially the ones living in AZ! They’ve been horrified by seeing the Biden ads about young women who have been raped and HAD a choice but now that choice is gone bc of djt and MAGA. I really appreciate the Biden ads out there at this time: they are so compelling and focus on the worst of djt practices.
We do that through hope with the smallest things that make people feel that the government is working for them. In my neighborhood, one program through one of the Biden legislations that got people excited was the Affordable Connectivity Program. The children were excited about it because they could stream unlimited things on the internet without parents having to share their internet through their phones. Unfortunately, the Republican Congress cut the funding and it expired. We need to talk about these policy successes, and how to make them permanent.
- whether or not your very existence as an LGBT person will be treated as obscene and “pornographic”, and kept from children.
- whether or not trans youth can legally receive medical care that is recognized as life-saving by every major medical organization in the US, and whether or not their parents will be criminalized as child abusers for seeking said medical care.
- whether or not we will have true freedom of expression, or have to worry about having any writing or art we create banned for going against Christofascist morality (this is important to me as a writer).
- whether we will truly have freedom of religion and separation of church and state, or if Christianity will become the de facto state religion and be given special legal privileges, even as other religions like Islam face greater oppression.
It is now more important than ever to flood your social media and remind folks that - “The GOP just nominated a court adjudicated rapist and 34X convicted felon.”
I don’t really get it either. Sometimes he gets a “clip” or something from a movie in his head (head?) and it just gets stuck in there and blurts out when he gets on one of his rally rants. Above my pay grade, 🤷♀️
“BREAKING: In newly leaked audio, Kevin Roberts, the leader of Project 2025, says he knows Donald Trump is lying about not knowing about Project 2025 in order to fool Americans into voting for him. Retweet to make sure every American hears this.”
I just donated today and stand with Jill Biden, the best “blocker” ever. Biden has the mandate of 14 million Democrats. He has to go on. The rabble needs to be ignored. It has no portfolio, only opinion. We have work to do to get our nominee elected. The rabble is a distraction from the mandate, the mission at hand.
Your opinion is highly respected. A rabble is an unorganized group, and I belong to the organized 14 million Democrats marching to win this election. Please join this well-organized effort.
I donated yesterday, too, to Biden. We are a team. When there’s a need for blockers to step in at a football game, they do. Quarterbacks aren’t the only heroes…it’s the whole team. There’s a little preschool song my grandson sings about “everyone do YOUR share”…let’s get the heck up and do OUR SHARE for democracy. Our grandchildren need us more than ever.
Friends - We have the ground game. We have the team. We have the platform. We have the results. All we need is EVERYONE to do their part. Post on social media but also sign up to talk to voters through textbanks/phonebanks/canvassing. I hate phonebanking and canvassing - bc it feels awkward and what if someone is rude - but you know what's worst? Losing elections. I have never forgotten how horrible I felt after the 2016 election. It's like a hangover that's never gone away EXCEPT when I do the work of GOTV. If you're nervous - here's a starter pack on how to get your nerve up and links to where you can volunteer! https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/turning-up-and-turning-out?r=51f18
I echo your advice about phone banking. I was nervous the first time I did it, but I quickly discovered that most of the people I talked to were either already in our camp or were quite willing to answer my few questions. I almost never had to get into a long conversation. And when I did, most of those conversations were positive.
There are always going to be a few negative reactions, but that's OK. You thank the person for their time, and you move on. In fact, even the negative responses are helpful. Having talked to that "non-supporter," you're able to get them off the GOTV list, so our volunteers can focus on getting the more likely voters to the polls.
Yes! And every single election - there are always a handful of people that I KNOW I helped get to the polls. It may take hundreds of calls but I know if I got 5 people to vote who wouldn’t have voted in a Swing State or close election, it’s worth all my discomfort.
Dems have been engaging in FFF: Fantasy Football Foolishness! Stop it. Joe is the nominee. It’s a binary choice. Smart old incumbent vs moronic old lunatic. There are more of us than there are of them. Pull on the same rope. Vote. Fight. Win!
I understand the enthusiasm, and I’m with you on that. But the underlying data on Biden right now in the public polls is beyond concerning and in some cases seems irreparable. He is really weak with youth voters, Hispanic voters, male African Americans and looks to be weirdly falling with white women in the suburbs now. This after absolutely owning the airwaves in all battleground states for the better part of 3 months. No matter what he does or how much money he spends, these voters are not responding. He can’t get the Dem coalition to come together. In fact, it’s getting worse for Biden.
Love the guy. I really do. He is a national treasure. But it’s time to pass the torch. Too much is at stake.
I think if the democrat politicians and 'leaders' of the party would stop fantasizing about replacing Biden and put their voices loudly behind him all that would return. This shameful, dangerous dilly dallying is harming us and will result in losing it all! Trump will surely use any method we use to change candidates in a legal challenge should we win, that will go to scotus who will rule him winner. Vote Biden. We are wasting time. This is democracy or the death of it. Period.
I disagree. The party leadership should be out pushing the re-election of Joe Biden not try to find a replacement. We think we are the "smart/virtuous" party and the MAGA GOP are crazy. Think again. We Democrats are the crazy ones. We have the candidate who has been the most effective American President in the past 75 years! With a highly adverse House, Joe Biden has delivered more benefits to all Americans than any president since FDR. + 15 million jobs, infrastructure rebuilding projects all across the country, investments in industries of the future, lower healthcare costs, and so forth. The list is long.
Screw the polls. Winning elections is a selling job. Every Democratic office holder from Senate and House members down to local county commissioners should beating the drums for Joe, not undermining him.
The time for that was 2021, 2022, 2023, not an election year, and CERTAINLY not 2 months prior to the first early voting. We are not voting for Biden, we are voting for Biden + his cabinet which has been absolutely incredible.
Hoping to see you this weekend and fellow Democrats in North Carolina, unfortunately the tech outage has disrupted my travel plans, but I’m still hopeful. I can make it into North Carolina tomorrow night.
Really specific question. I know what campaigns need is cash. I’ve given when and to whom I can. I text with FT6 and write postcards. At this present moment, I’ve written all the cards I have from various groups and will get an influx from 3 groups… but not till August.
I have bought buckets of stamps and cards to write. I’m in NC and cannot find how to postcard for Josh Stein/Gov or Allison Riggs/Supreme Court. Does anyone have info on that? I’ve looked in the obvious places. Thanks.
Colleen: I am in GA and signed up for GA Postcard Project. I discovered on FB that there is a NC Postcard Project which stated that their group is based on the GA group.
FWIW: There were also on FB Postcard Project groups for WI and MI and maybe another one. Hope this helps you. Josh Stein needs to get elected.
Thanks. Josh Stein does need to get elected. So does Allison Riggs. In NC the way to fight gerrymandering is by getting a Supreme Court with integrity. It will take us until 2028 at earliest to elect the court we need.
I’m writing with the Center for Common Ground in NC but addresses won’t be ready till August. I’ll check out your other suggestions. I really appreciate your response! 💙
But we are nearly into August and Simon needs to update our place in history as it is now. Otherwise it is easy to question the “facts, the history” that led to WWII.
I really hate that the media twists things. All this morning they were saying that Jeffries was trying to get Biden to quit. And that Biden was thinking of quitting. Just keep working and pay no attention to the gaslighting.
Okay, I don’t disagree that there is polling showing that a majority of democrats want Biden to step aside, but the idea that “democrats have a variety of options” is dangerous wishful thinking. People have no idea how complicated, messy, and risky of a process replacing Biden at this point would be, the only realistic (and imo, best case scenario in terms of Biden dropping out) is him resigning and Kamala Harris becoming president, and thus the incumbent. Even *that* option carries significant risks and uncertainties, but I can at least imagine it happening, and at least some polling does show Harris doing marginally better than Biden right now (but who knows which way that could go once the spotlight was really placed on her).
All the other “options” are dangerous fantasies that are as good as handing Trump the keys to White House. The only two historical open conventions were disasters that led to historic losses for the democrats, the whole “mini-primary” idea is a bizarre untested experiment that is being pushed by donors and which no political insider actually wants because they know it would just lead to more chaos and infighting this close to the election (and all but guarantee a repeat of 2016, when there was too much infighting over candidates among the base to defeat Trump), a mini-primary at this point would be like treating a headache by blowing your head off. There are also certain major issues that are unavoidable with any replacement of Biden besides Harris (such as the fact the new candidate would go back to square one in terms of campaign finances, and it’s nearly August, like Biden’s campaign has been one of the best funded in history, but Trump’s is now catching up, and yet people want to reset everything for the democrats right now? Utterly insane imo).
And this isn’t even getting into the problems *any* replacement for Biden (even Harris) would need to overcome (swing state laws saying that the ticket on ballots can’t be changed this late except in the event of a death, the fact that Harris’s VP pick would end up at the mercy of the currently MAGA-controlled House, legal challenges from the Heritage Foundation, etc.).
Also, not a single one of the non-Harris “dream candidates” people keep bringing up (Michelle Obama included) has any interest in even running right now, none of them actually want to do it!
Like *if* the Biden campaign decides it is time to throw in the towel (and that is indeed a very big “if” this close to the nomination), I’d trust that the experts on his team have a viable exit strategy, but let’s not for a second pretend that it’s ever going to be a simple or clean process, a silver bullet for winning the election, or that the democrats have “lots of options” Biden’s team is just stubbornly ignoring, they very demonstrably don’t.
Other polls show little to no change. The NYT poll sample is small. It is not a definitive data point. I don’t hold it as credible. Much data is yet to appear, but nothing is going to overtake the will of the nominating voters.
Funny how people call MAGA a cult but when some Dems find another Dem (who probably had done more for Dems over the years than most people here) who disagrees with them they resort to insults. Since Republicans are hoping Biden remains on the ticket should I call those who want Biden to stay Republican shills (or trolls)? Perhaps try reasoned and rational arguments instead of name-calling?
Agree. Wishful thinking won’t stop trump. Dems have to be realistic about what it will take to attract undecided voters and to stop trump. And we completely ignore polls we don’t like only at great risk.
Just trying to get caught up on the day's news. I'm so confused. Biden is Out, Biden is In, Hakeem Jeffries wants Biden out, Hakeem Jeffries wants Biden in, Sherrod Brown wants Biden out, AOC posts on Instagram that Biden has to be in (which I haven't watched/read it yet). I have stress whiplash.
So inspiring, PN! Thank you and all the heroes who are getting involved to help Dems win and make lives better.
Biden’s poor performance goes well beyond the debate. He often looks a bit confused, doesn’t articulate messages well and often trails off before finishing a sentence. Not good. That’s why the polls are looking worse, despite Biden having massively outspending trump.
Simon - please swear more
David, a lot of ways you could have made this point but comparing me to Trump and say that I sound like a moron was outside the bounds of how we talk to one another here. I am taking this post down and suspending you from posting for a week. When you return, if you do, try harder to express yourself here in respectful ways. Thank you.
For one thing, Simon has far better hair – and he’s the only one with all his marbles intact!
/s
Simon, how do you think the differences between the ground-game of the Trump Campaign and Republican Party on the one hand, and the Biden-Harris Campaign and Democratic-aligned ground-game operations on the other, is likely to impact the 2024 election?
Is that the game-changer that lets us beat the polls, win the election and save American democracy?
THOUGHTS AND ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS
In 2020, the Biden-Harris basically shut down its door-to-door efforts due to covid – and still won by over 7 million votes.
2024 seems very different…
Very early the Biden-Harris Campaign established a large network of field offices, especially in swing states.
ON THE OTHER HAND, the 2024 polling does not look good, especially compared to 2020. But how accurate are the polls?
In every special election since Dobbs, Democrats have over-performed all polling, sometimes massively. And breaking with historic patterns, there was no Red Wave midterm election. Meanwhile, Republicans have underperformed, as did Trump in primary after primary.
You might say that, since Dobbs, America has seen a series of PINK WAVE elections!
Seven times abortion rights have been on the ballot, and every time we have won the referendum, even in conservative Kansas – and with margins that far exceeded what polling indicated.
In November, we know abortion will again be on the ballot in Florida, Colorado, Maryland, New York, South Dakota, and possibly also in Arizona, Arkansas, Missouri, Montana and Nebraska. Some of these are swing states.
There more women voters than men, and in election after election female turnout has been higher than male turnout. As far as I can see, the likely-voter polling models fail to reflect this. Perhaps that partly explains why polling is failing to accurately predict these successes? Moreover, studies reveal a growing difference in voting preferences between the genders…
AN ESPECIALLY STRIKING DEVELOPMENT is the plethora of organizations that have arisen in response to Dobbs and the threat of a second democracy-destroying Trump presidency. The blueprint is clear: Trump’s Project 2025 – and they are already compiling names of loyalists.
The vast network of pro-democracy organizations that are rising to meat this threat is now intensely engaged in record-setting fundraising, voter registration and GOTV efforts. We are seeing massive postcarding, texting, calling and door-to-door canvassing. (In addition are the campaigns, e.g. from Red Wine & Blue, to inform voters about the dangers of Project 2025.)
TURNOUT WILL BE FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN POLLS. If turnout of Democratic-leaning voters is 2–3 percent greater that Republican turnout, surely that will be decisive in many swing states and in close down-ballot races? And if our turnout is at Scandinavian levels (80 percent or more), while Republicans are stuck at 2020 levels (a mere 67 percent), then won’t we see a Blue Tsunami?
Will 2024 be the election that gives us a Pink Tsunami – and thus a Blue Tsunami that once again saves American democracy?
Surely voter turnout is the WINNING 2024 WILDCARD?
While it’s probably true that higher turnout would benefit the democrats, there’s actually been some polling that unusually suggests the opposite; Trump often seems to do better among lower propensity voter demographics in these polls, while Biden does better with reliable high-propensity voters (including older white people, peculiarly for a democrat), suggesting that a lower turnout election might actually favor *Biden*.
Now, this is obviously so strange historically that I’d caution against jumping to conclusions based on it, but it is something to watch, if for no other reason than that it’s a very odd, “backwards day” sort of pattern, which might suggest deeper issues with polling right now as a whole.
One thing that leads me to believe this election is very different from the past is the fact that my grandfather and his wife, who are life-long conservatives who I don’t think have failed to vote for a republican since the parties “switched” back in the ‘60s, are not planning on voting for either Trump or Biden this election. It would obviously nice if they were voting for Biden, but even just the simple fact that such staunch conservatives as them would rather sit out the election than vote for Trump? That to me suggests Trump is in a lot more trouble than people think (and for the record, they were saying *after* the debate).
Thanks for sharing, especially your personal anecdote.
When I say it all comes down to turnout, I don’t mean turnout in general. I too have seen articles referring to studies such as you mention.
However, the question is *who* can turn out their voters. We must do so at significantly higher rates than MAGA Republicans do. And if we do, then we win. It’s that simple.
I love this comment. I wrote a book about civil society and democratization in Argentina, South Africa, and Tajikiistan. See www.importingdemocracy.org for a free e copy. It is true here as well. This is not in any way to downplay political parties!
Wow, I feel honored. I look forward to checking out your book.
One thing to keep in mind about the polling in 2020 was that it actually significantly overestimated the democrats, especially in down-ballot races. Sure, Biden won by a healthy margin and the democrats got a trifecta (albeit only very narrowly with the senate, literally only just a majority with Harris voting, and that was only after a later run-off election in Georgia), but polling was suggesting like, a blue tsunami, that even thoroughly red states like *Texas* were in play, so democrats actually underperformed polling in 2020.
It’s possible that this overestimation happened in part bc polling was intentionally weighted more toward democrats in an attempt to make up foe how polls underestimated Trump in 2016, and it seems that in 2022 they may have again over-corrected in the other direction, thus the “red wave” that never truly materialized. The patterns of polling this year generally resemble 2022, so it’s possible the underestimation of democrats is still an issue, as is the fact that there are known biases toward those with right-leaning politics that are endemic in two of the main data collection methods these weekly opinion polls use (landline telephone surveys, which are obviously biased toward older people, who also trend more conservative; and also online opt-in surveys, which Pew Research found earlier this year are slanted toward younger respondents who tend to be right wing, trolls, and liars who are only doing surveys for money) is causing the polling to favor Trump more than it should, and I think this is something Simon has talked about a lot, with how democrats have been consistently overperforming polling expectations in actual elections since 2022.
Once again, this should not be an excuse to get complacent, or to dismiss polling trends entirely, but it would not surprise if an election that happened today ended up being more favorable to Biden than polling is suggesting. Polling is complicated, and this would be *far* from the first time it was inaccurate (in 2012 I remember people were freaked out by polls showing Romney comfortably ahead Obama well into October, but Obama still won).
Our party is much stronger than theirs, as long as we stick together. We didn't have a ground operation in 2020, and may believed it cost us a 1-2 pts. The team running B-H are organizers, field people, and with all of you doing what you are going to do we should have the most powerful political machine we've ever had this year. It's going to matter, and Trump cannot match it. It's why we have to keep working - it is literally how we win. We just have to our work them. They have the oligarchs. We have all of you. I would much rather have all of you.
69K texts to Florida this morning in one hour! #DMWL
thank you Lyn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is the way!
🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻
I hope all are able to watch the MSNBC interview with Jen O’Malley.
~ 100,000 door knocks in the LAST WEEK with 76% for Team Biden. Best.Poll.Ever!!!
It was a great interview. Impressive woman at that helm, which must be a big challenge “in these times.”
100,000 door knocks. Wow!
Sticking together is important and why it's not good when one senator after another tells Joe to drop out. I wish Tester and Brown would hold off on their statements for now. Dems must be united. They were before the debate. It's very frustrating. Keep their eye on Trump.
We will win this! I am sharing my battle-tested voter pitch with you all:
Elections are not beauty pageant contests. The media culture in the US has transformed politics into a show business or entertainment industry. However, in real life, as we learned painfully from Mitch McConnell, "Elections Have Consequences."
In fact, for many people, it can be a matter of life or death:
-Whether you can get an abortion procedure if your life is in danger,
-Whether your healthcare will be stripped away while you are dealing with a major illness,
-Whether you can feel safe attending an event without the fear of being shot with an AR-15,
-Whether a family can seek due process for asylum because their life is at risk in their home country.
All these issues are determined by decisions made by elected politicians, whether to take action or ignore them.
So, no, an election is not where you pick the best, strongest-looking man to entertain you. The person you elect can have the power of life or death over you on various issues.
Thus, based on their records, who do you trust to make the right decision for your life in the Oval Office when these crucial issues arise?
Donald Trump, the man who bankrupted so many businesses, was found liable for fraud multiple times, liable for sexual assault, and convicted felon?
Or Joe Biden.
Great post!
Here is the reasoning: Many potential voters don't vote because, for them, electing politicians seems like a show that has no impact on their lives. This is especially true in the Black immigrant community where I'm from. Using this pitch, I convinced family members to vote for the first time after 20+ years of citizenship in the U.S. in 2020. How? By helping them understand that every decision or non-decision made by a politician, even on the most minor issues, can affect their lives. The protests following the murder of George Floyd made this even more vivid.
“The worst illiterate is the political illiterate, he doesn’t hear, doesn’t speak, nor participates in the political events. He doesn’t know the cost of life, the price of the bean, of the fish, of the flour, of the rent, of the shoes and of the medicine, all depends on political decisions. The political illiterate is so stupid that he is proud and swells his chest saying that he hates politics. The imbecile doesn’t know that, from his political ignorance is born the prostitute, the abandoned child, and the worst thieves of all, the bad politician, corrupted and flunky of the national and multinational companies.” - Bertolt Brecht
Unfortunately, this is where Trump brought new voters into politics, but with a destructive ideology. We need to do similar work, but in our own way. Bernie was the only one on the left who came close. Biden succeeded, but with a boost from events like COVID and the George Floyd murder."
Don't let perfect be the enemy of good, it was ever thus.
"The first time it was reported that our friends were being butchered there was a cry of horror. Then a hundred were butchered. But when a thousand were butchered and there was no end to the butchery, a blanket of silence spread.
When evil-doing comes like falling rain, nobody calls out "stop!"
When crimes begin to pile up they become invisible. When sufferings become unendurable the cries are no longer heard. The cries, too, fall like rain in summer."
-Bertolt Brecht
brilliant...
I completely agree.
The concept of freedom, individual rights and democracy are just that…concepts. Important concepts. Worth dying for concepts but still concepts.
Instead we can show people specifics about proposed Republican policies will affect them directly. That gets their attention.
💪💙
Thank you Adonai🙏🏻
These are some of the same discussions I’ve had with my friends and family, especially the ones living in AZ! They’ve been horrified by seeing the Biden ads about young women who have been raped and HAD a choice but now that choice is gone bc of djt and MAGA. I really appreciate the Biden ads out there at this time: they are so compelling and focus on the worst of djt practices.
This ad is spot on! They can use the same approach for every issue in this election. This is how you capture the attention of disengaged voters.
Thank you for sharing. I’ll like to know more of what you said to motivate people to vote. Any positive stuff?
We do that through hope with the smallest things that make people feel that the government is working for them. In my neighborhood, one program through one of the Biden legislations that got people excited was the Affordable Connectivity Program. The children were excited about it because they could stream unlimited things on the internet without parents having to share their internet through their phones. Unfortunately, the Republican Congress cut the funding and it expired. We need to talk about these policy successes, and how to make them permanent.
Thank you! I'm borrowing!
Don’t forget also:
- whether you can marry the person you want to.
- whether or not your very existence as an LGBT person will be treated as obscene and “pornographic”, and kept from children.
- whether or not trans youth can legally receive medical care that is recognized as life-saving by every major medical organization in the US, and whether or not their parents will be criminalized as child abusers for seeking said medical care.
- whether or not we will have true freedom of expression, or have to worry about having any writing or art we create banned for going against Christofascist morality (this is important to me as a writer).
- whether we will truly have freedom of religion and separation of church and state, or if Christianity will become the de facto state religion and be given special legal privileges, even as other religions like Islam face greater oppression.
It is now more important than ever to flood your social media and remind folks that - “The GOP just nominated a court adjudicated rapist and 34X convicted felon.”
And lunatic obsessed with Hannibal Lecter.
What's Trump's deal with Hannibal Lecter? I don't get it.
I don’t really get it either. Sometimes he gets a “clip” or something from a movie in his head (head?) and it just gets stuck in there and blurts out when he gets on one of his rally rants. Above my pay grade, 🤷♀️
Also above my pay grade. He is an idiot
Here’s a great link to share/amplify:📣
“BREAKING: In newly leaked audio, Kevin Roberts, the leader of Project 2025, says he knows Donald Trump is lying about not knowing about Project 2025 in order to fool Americans into voting for him. Retweet to make sure every American hears this.”
https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1812115437250924907
TRUTH! Also hey guys i'm new here.
Hey back, and welcome!!
Thanks! I'm ready to go do real world stuff to stop trump and not just internet junk... which is poison. (present company excluded.)
You have come to the very best place! Bravo!
Welcome!
I just donated today and stand with Jill Biden, the best “blocker” ever. Biden has the mandate of 14 million Democrats. He has to go on. The rabble needs to be ignored. It has no portfolio, only opinion. We have work to do to get our nominee elected. The rabble is a distraction from the mandate, the mission at hand.
Ignoring "the rabble” will not elect Joe Biden or any other Democrat. Mutual respect, people.
Your opinion is highly respected. A rabble is an unorganized group, and I belong to the organized 14 million Democrats marching to win this election. Please join this well-organized effort.
I donated yesterday, too, to Biden. We are a team. When there’s a need for blockers to step in at a football game, they do. Quarterbacks aren’t the only heroes…it’s the whole team. There’s a little preschool song my grandson sings about “everyone do YOUR share”…let’s get the heck up and do OUR SHARE for democracy. Our grandchildren need us more than ever.
I love you.
Simon, our team at Hopium keeps me motivated and sane. I am having trouble registering for the meeting next week. Thanks Ruth
TY Simon!
Friends - We have the ground game. We have the team. We have the platform. We have the results. All we need is EVERYONE to do their part. Post on social media but also sign up to talk to voters through textbanks/phonebanks/canvassing. I hate phonebanking and canvassing - bc it feels awkward and what if someone is rude - but you know what's worst? Losing elections. I have never forgotten how horrible I felt after the 2016 election. It's like a hangover that's never gone away EXCEPT when I do the work of GOTV. If you're nervous - here's a starter pack on how to get your nerve up and links to where you can volunteer! https://democratsdeliver.substack.com/p/turning-up-and-turning-out?r=51f18
I echo your advice about phone banking. I was nervous the first time I did it, but I quickly discovered that most of the people I talked to were either already in our camp or were quite willing to answer my few questions. I almost never had to get into a long conversation. And when I did, most of those conversations were positive.
There are always going to be a few negative reactions, but that's OK. You thank the person for their time, and you move on. In fact, even the negative responses are helpful. Having talked to that "non-supporter," you're able to get them off the GOTV list, so our volunteers can focus on getting the more likely voters to the polls.
Yes! And every single election - there are always a handful of people that I KNOW I helped get to the polls. It may take hundreds of calls but I know if I got 5 people to vote who wouldn’t have voted in a Swing State or close election, it’s worth all my discomfort.
OMG thank you, this is a great list! I am reposting. :)
Dems have been engaging in FFF: Fantasy Football Foolishness! Stop it. Joe is the nominee. It’s a binary choice. Smart old incumbent vs moronic old lunatic. There are more of us than there are of them. Pull on the same rope. Vote. Fight. Win!
Keeping Biden may be the foolish thing.
I understand the enthusiasm, and I’m with you on that. But the underlying data on Biden right now in the public polls is beyond concerning and in some cases seems irreparable. He is really weak with youth voters, Hispanic voters, male African Americans and looks to be weirdly falling with white women in the suburbs now. This after absolutely owning the airwaves in all battleground states for the better part of 3 months. No matter what he does or how much money he spends, these voters are not responding. He can’t get the Dem coalition to come together. In fact, it’s getting worse for Biden.
Love the guy. I really do. He is a national treasure. But it’s time to pass the torch. Too much is at stake.
I think if the democrat politicians and 'leaders' of the party would stop fantasizing about replacing Biden and put their voices loudly behind him all that would return. This shameful, dangerous dilly dallying is harming us and will result in losing it all! Trump will surely use any method we use to change candidates in a legal challenge should we win, that will go to scotus who will rule him winner. Vote Biden. We are wasting time. This is democracy or the death of it. Period.
I disagree. The party leadership should be out pushing the re-election of Joe Biden not try to find a replacement. We think we are the "smart/virtuous" party and the MAGA GOP are crazy. Think again. We Democrats are the crazy ones. We have the candidate who has been the most effective American President in the past 75 years! With a highly adverse House, Joe Biden has delivered more benefits to all Americans than any president since FDR. + 15 million jobs, infrastructure rebuilding projects all across the country, investments in industries of the future, lower healthcare costs, and so forth. The list is long.
Screw the polls. Winning elections is a selling job. Every Democratic office holder from Senate and House members down to local county commissioners should beating the drums for Joe, not undermining him.
We are sooo lucky to have Joe.
Agree 100%.
The time for that was 2021, 2022, 2023, not an election year, and CERTAINLY not 2 months prior to the first early voting. We are not voting for Biden, we are voting for Biden + his cabinet which has been absolutely incredible.
Also, polls /= votes
Hoping to see you this weekend and fellow Democrats in North Carolina, unfortunately the tech outage has disrupted my travel plans, but I’m still hopeful. I can make it into North Carolina tomorrow night.
Really specific question. I know what campaigns need is cash. I’ve given when and to whom I can. I text with FT6 and write postcards. At this present moment, I’ve written all the cards I have from various groups and will get an influx from 3 groups… but not till August.
I have bought buckets of stamps and cards to write. I’m in NC and cannot find how to postcard for Josh Stein/Gov or Allison Riggs/Supreme Court. Does anyone have info on that? I’ve looked in the obvious places. Thanks.
Colleen: I am in GA and signed up for GA Postcard Project. I discovered on FB that there is a NC Postcard Project which stated that their group is based on the GA group.
FWIW: There were also on FB Postcard Project groups for WI and MI and maybe another one. Hope this helps you. Josh Stein needs to get elected.
Thanks. Josh Stein does need to get elected. So does Allison Riggs. In NC the way to fight gerrymandering is by getting a Supreme Court with integrity. It will take us until 2028 at earliest to elect the court we need.
I’m writing with the Center for Common Ground in NC but addresses won’t be ready till August. I’ll check out your other suggestions. I really appreciate your response! 💙
But we are nearly into August and Simon needs to update our place in history as it is now. Otherwise it is easy to question the “facts, the history” that led to WWII.
Pat, what does this mean, exactly?
?
Hakeem Jeffries is on the case!
https://x.com/ChrisDJackson/status/1814323783341072452
Now it’s time for Schumer, Pelosi and Schiff to follow suit.
And Obama
I really hate that the media twists things. All this morning they were saying that Jeffries was trying to get Biden to quit. And that Biden was thinking of quitting. Just keep working and pay no attention to the gaslighting.
Most Dems want Biden to step down.
If we go by polls, unless you get Michelle Obama, no one polls consistently higher than Biden.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/09/biden-clinton-harris-democrat-poll-00166937 And that is without the benefit of the massive spending on Biden’s behalf, that has had little effect, and without the benefit of being able to mop the floor with trump at the debate (which she would have done). But Dems have a variety of options.
Okay, I don’t disagree that there is polling showing that a majority of democrats want Biden to step aside, but the idea that “democrats have a variety of options” is dangerous wishful thinking. People have no idea how complicated, messy, and risky of a process replacing Biden at this point would be, the only realistic (and imo, best case scenario in terms of Biden dropping out) is him resigning and Kamala Harris becoming president, and thus the incumbent. Even *that* option carries significant risks and uncertainties, but I can at least imagine it happening, and at least some polling does show Harris doing marginally better than Biden right now (but who knows which way that could go once the spotlight was really placed on her).
All the other “options” are dangerous fantasies that are as good as handing Trump the keys to White House. The only two historical open conventions were disasters that led to historic losses for the democrats, the whole “mini-primary” idea is a bizarre untested experiment that is being pushed by donors and which no political insider actually wants because they know it would just lead to more chaos and infighting this close to the election (and all but guarantee a repeat of 2016, when there was too much infighting over candidates among the base to defeat Trump), a mini-primary at this point would be like treating a headache by blowing your head off. There are also certain major issues that are unavoidable with any replacement of Biden besides Harris (such as the fact the new candidate would go back to square one in terms of campaign finances, and it’s nearly August, like Biden’s campaign has been one of the best funded in history, but Trump’s is now catching up, and yet people want to reset everything for the democrats right now? Utterly insane imo).
And this isn’t even getting into the problems *any* replacement for Biden (even Harris) would need to overcome (swing state laws saying that the ticket on ballots can’t be changed this late except in the event of a death, the fact that Harris’s VP pick would end up at the mercy of the currently MAGA-controlled House, legal challenges from the Heritage Foundation, etc.).
Also, not a single one of the non-Harris “dream candidates” people keep bringing up (Michelle Obama included) has any interest in even running right now, none of them actually want to do it!
Like *if* the Biden campaign decides it is time to throw in the towel (and that is indeed a very big “if” this close to the nomination), I’d trust that the experts on his team have a viable exit strategy, but let’s not for a second pretend that it’s ever going to be a simple or clean process, a silver bullet for winning the election, or that the democrats have “lots of options” Biden’s team is just stubbornly ignoring, they very demonstrably don’t.
Where do you get this “most”? Did you canvas the 14 million that voted for Biden?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/17/us/politics/biden-poll-democrats-drop-out.html
Other polls show little to no change. The NYT poll sample is small. It is not a definitive data point. I don’t hold it as credible. Much data is yet to appear, but nothing is going to overtake the will of the nominating voters.
the nytimes is not credible anymore; I would ignore that pro-trump rag.
Lots of other sources, as well. Can you provide a source that says most Dems don’t want Biden to step down. (And no videos, please.)
I think you’re trolling this community.
I KNOW he's trolling.
Funny how people call MAGA a cult but when some Dems find another Dem (who probably had done more for Dems over the years than most people here) who disagrees with them they resort to insults. Since Republicans are hoping Biden remains on the ticket should I call those who want Biden to stay Republican shills (or trolls)? Perhaps try reasoned and rational arguments instead of name-calling?
Please stop saying that. It’s just not true and your repeating it won’t make it true.
This is why I posted what I posted yesterday about checking facts, not reposting rumors.
Agree. Wishful thinking won’t stop trump. Dems have to be realistic about what it will take to attract undecided voters and to stop trump. And we completely ignore polls we don’t like only at great risk.
Great to hear Jeffries support
Just trying to get caught up on the day's news. I'm so confused. Biden is Out, Biden is In, Hakeem Jeffries wants Biden out, Hakeem Jeffries wants Biden in, Sherrod Brown wants Biden out, AOC posts on Instagram that Biden has to be in (which I haven't watched/read it yet). I have stress whiplash.