A Russian-Backed Monster Falls, More Notes On What Comes Next, Our Final 2024 House Tally

We need to keep fighting Trump's unacceptable 4

Dec 09, 2024

Good morning all. Got a few things for you today:

Assad, A Russian-backed Monster, Falls - The fall of Assad is among the consequential events of the Biden-Harris Presidency, and we will spending a lot of time here in the coming days talking about what happened and what it means for the US and the world going forward.

As we wake today it is clear the Russian-Iranian alliance fighting in Ukraine and throughout the Middle East has suffered another significant blow. Israel has dramatically weakened their proxies, Hamas and Hizbollah, and now a very anti-Iran/Russia government will take over in Syria. For us here in the US this huge strategic setback for Putin will matter in coming foreign and domestic policy fights and in the battle for some of Trump’s very Russian-aligned nominees - Herseth, Gabbard and Kennedy.

Recommended reading from around the Internet today (gift links where possible) on the fall of Assad:

Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic:

the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. There is nothing worse than hopelessness, nothing more soul-destroying than pessimism, grief, and despair. The fall of a Russian- and Iranian-backed regime offers, suddenly, the possibility of change. The future might be different. And that possibility will inspire hope all around the world

Ammar Azzouz, The Guardian:

I wept and wept as I watched the Syrian regime fall. At last, I have a home again.

David Ignatius, The Washington Post:

With the sudden collapse of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s proxy empire in the Middle East has been devastated — in Gaza, Lebanon and now Syria. But filling the resulting power vacuum across the Middle East with stable governance will be an urgent and complex challenge.
The worm turns: Just 14 months ago, Israel was terrorized and reeling after Hamas fighters surged across the Gaza fence. Now, Israel’s enemies across the region are dead or in flight. It has been a convulsive process, rich with promise but perhaps carrying a toxin of regional instability and turmoil.
Assad fled Damascus for Moscow on Sunday, leaving his capital to the control of a Turkish-backed jihadist insurgency called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. Arab sources told me Sunday that HTS was securing Syria’s intelligence headquarters in Damascus and trying to contain violence in the capital. But with thousands of Syrians suddenly freed from years in Assad’s torture prisons, there will be a yearning for revenge.
Arab regional powers are attempting to steady the transition. Led by the United Arab Emirates, they had been trying to persuade Assad for months to break from Iran and rejoin the Arab fold. Assad hesitated too long and was ultimately abandoned by his erstwhile allies. “In the end, the Syrian military didn’t fight, and Iran and Russia didn’t show up,” noted a former CIA officer with extensive experience in the region.

The Financial Times:

Many analysts are convinced that Erdoğan, who once called the Syrian president a “butcher”, stands to gain politically and economically from his newfound position as the most influential foreign actor in the country following the fall of Assad, who was backed by Russia and Iran.
“After the Syrians, it is Türkiye that is the biggest winner here,” said Ömer Özkizilcik, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think-tank. “When everyone else abandoned the Syrians, when no other state supported the opposition, Türkiye did not give up on them,” he added.

The loss of Syria could end being a huge blow to Putin’s rancid hostage taking in Europe:

Here’s the flag of the Syrian rebellion being raised in Moscow (!!!!!) this morning, where Assad has fled:

While it is still early my initial thought is that the fall of Assad will make it harder for Trump to get his unacceptable 4 - Hegseth, Gabbard, Patel and Kennedy - confirmed. The world has just grown far more complicated, making these unqualified and unfit nominees even more of an an unacceptable risk. Putin has stumbled, badly - again - and alliance with him may be far less appealing for Republicans going forward. May being a key word here, and why we have to keep working it peeps:

Call your Senators and Representative to let them know your dissatisfaction with the rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon’s pick of Tulsi Gabbard, Kash Patel, Pete Hegseth and Robert Kennedy; and to inform them of your expectation that they will leave it all out there on the playing field to block these profoundly dangerous nominations whether they have a vote on them or not.
Contact the White House and ask President Biden to order the FBI to begin background checks into Trump’s nominees immediately and before Trump installs Patel to disable the process. Last week the Trump team signed an agreement allowing these background checks to go forward. President Biden should do Mr. Trump a favor and expedite the clearance process for the most sensitive jobs of State, Defense, DNI, CIA, Homeland Security and HHS (pandemic preparedness) so the new team can hit the ground running in January.

From Dr. Timothy Snyder:

As Director of National Intelligence, Gabbard would do enormous harm, unwillingly or willingly. She is not just completely unqualified for this role -- she is anti-qualified. She is just the sort of person enemies of the American republic would want in this job. This is not a hypothetical -- Gabbard is the specific person that actual enemies of the United States do want in the job. The Russian media refers to Tulsi Gabbard as a "Russian agent" and as "girlfriend," with good reason.
Gabbard is worse than unfit. Her public record is as a disinformer and apologist for mass murderers. And there is nothing on the other side of the ledger. There are no positive qualifications.

What Happened, What Comes Next - A few stories have been published in recent days well worth your time:

On Friday Tom Bonier and I presented to a national gathering of the State Democratic Parties in Phoenix. Tom and I are talking about how to share the data-filled presentation with all of you in the coming weeks. In my part of the presentation I talked about what we do now, drawing heavily on my post and video from last Thursday, For Dems It’s A Time For Re-invention, Re-imagination and Innovation.

I was also grateful to spend time with political allies from across the country who were on the front lines this cycle. I learned a lot listening to them, as we’ve been doing here these past few weeks, together. The more I’ve come to understand the impact and gains we had in North Carolina, the prouder I am. Here I am with the great Anderson Clayton on Friday morning:

To help us keep learning from others I’ve launched a new What Happened, What Comes Next discussion series. Here are the first five of those talks, along with two relevant segments from my fall Closing Strong series with Tara McGowan and COURIER Newsroom:

Ken Martin - MN Dem Chair, A Leading Candidate For DNC Chair On The Future Of The DNC And Democratic Party
Anderson Clayton - On Our Impressive Downballot Wins in North Carolina
John Della Volpe - On Trump’s Gains With Young People
Joe Trippi - On The Power Of Networks And The Need To Build Our Own
Rep. Abigail Spanberger - On Winning The Virginia Governors Race in 2025. Learn more about Abigail | Volunteer | Donate To Her Campaign | We have already raised more than $10,000 towards our $100,000 goal!

From Closing Strong:

On The Need For Pro-Democracy Media - With Tara McGowan and Dan Pfeiffer
Beyond MAGA Creators - Russia’s influence on the Republican Party runs deep with Stewart Stevens and Jiore Craig

I’ve also set up a thread for paid subscribers to offer their thoughts on what this wonderful and plucky community should do next. I’m grateful for the many comments we’ve received so far. Weigh in if you can in the coming days, and note that an annual Hopium paid subscription is now 10% off through the end of the year for those who may want to sign up or give a bit of Hopium as a holiday gift!

Our 2024 Work Together - While we did not the have election we all wanted to have, our community had important wins:

We invested $1.1m in the North Carolina Democratic Party and our friend, Anderson Clayton, and helped power 5 statewide victories - Gov, LT. Gov, AG, Superintendent of Public Schools, Secretary of States - the breaking of the NC legislative super majority and a big win in a statewide Supreme Court race. North Carolina was one of the great bright spots for us in 2024.
We invested $700,000 for Ruben Gallego, and helped him win in what was a tough year in Arizona. The Hopium community was Senator-election Gallego largest fundraiser, and we are sitting down to talk about his race this Wesdnesday.
We invested more than $300,000 in the Nebraska Democratic Party, helping us secure the blue dot and other important wins there. I will be sitting down to NE Dem Chair Jane Kleeb soon.
We invested almost $150,000 in WI state legislative races, where we had some of our biggest gains of the cycle. Hope to be interviewing the great Ben Wikler early next week.
In the House we raised and invested $2.3 million in the 15 red to blue districts most likely to flip and in Tom Suozzi’s special election win in February. Of the 8 seats we flipped in the House, the Hopium community were major investors in 7. Here’s our final fundraising tally in the house, with the bolded races = wins.

Gray CA-13 $160,648
Whitesides CA-27 $166,190
Tran CA-45 $94,302
Suozzi NY-03 $115,453
Gillen NY-04 $155,097
Riley NY-19 $160,479
Bynum OR-5 $163,001
Cherny AZ-01 $73,612 (Primary)
Shah AZ-01 $85,554 (General Election)
Engel AZ-06 $163,027
Salas CA-22 $158,338
Rollins CA-41 $163,362
Bohannan IA-01 $89,165
Vargas NE-02 $137,891
Altman NJ-07 $159,371
Jones NY-17 $159,467
Stelson PA-10 $88,268

While we did not have the election we all wanted to have, we did have important wins this year and need to learn both from our mistakes and the things that went right as we chart our path forward. Thanks to everyone in the Hopium community who “did more and worried less” this cycle. We made a big difference, together.

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg

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