America Is Not Winning Under Trump, We Are Losing. Today Is A Day Of Action. We Need To Be Very, Very Loud Today!!!!!

Going Live With Stuart Stevens at 11am ET. Try To Join Us.......

Morning all. Big day. Here’s Punchbowl News’ latest summary of where we are:

Senate GOP leaders made the unusual — and unpopular among the rank-and-file — decision Sunday night to take a break before starting the high-stakes vote-a-rama that comes at the end of every budget reconciliation push in the Senate.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s move to bring senators back in at 9 a.m. for the amendment marathon is a departure from the norm. The process, during which senators can offer an unlimited number of amendments, usually occurs in the overnight hours with the goal of exacting as much pain as possible and wearing senators down.

A daytime vote-a-rama likely means the process could drag out much longer — possibly until early Tuesday morning, some GOP senators predict.

Yet the reality is that Senate Republicans are on a glide path to passing President Donald Trump’s legislative priorities, a huge win for them and the White House. Thune can’t breathe a sigh of relief yet, however.

Unlimited floor votes. The first vote the Senate takes before starting the vote-a-rama is on the current policy baseline, the accounting tactic Republicans are using to make the 2017 tax cuts permanent.

Senate Democrats have condemned the use of the baseline and planned to force a parliamentarian ruling on the floor. Instead, Thune set up a party-line vote to settle the scorekeeping question and avoid any need to overrule the parliamentarian, which he’s pledged not to do.

But this vote ushers in a new norm in the Senate, putting a current policy baseline in play for either party to extend tax cuts permanently in reconciliation without paying for them.

During the vote-a-rama itself, the Senate will vote on Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) amendment to lower the federal match rate for states that expanded Medicaid under Obamacare.

Scott and other conservatives secured GOP leaders’ support for the amendment in exchange for their votes for the motion to proceed to the reconciliation package.

The amendment is unlikely to pass, though, as a handful of Republican senators have already expressed opposition.

Dems’ playbook. Most of the vote-a-rama will be the Democrats’ show. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer will kick things off.

Schumer’s first amendment will underscore a theme of the day for Democrats, forcing Republicans to vote on a measure focused on not increasing “costs for working families and small businesses to pay for tax cuts for billionaires.”

Here are other key topics for Democrats.

— Medicaid: Republicans’ plans to slash around $1 trillion in spending from health care programs — mainly Medicaid — will be a huge focus for Democrats.

Senate Democrats are also expected to focus on rural hospitals, a sensitive issue for GOP moderates who fought to add a $25 billion relief fund to the package.

— Clean energy: Senate Democrats are planning amendments targeted at Republicans’ net $517 billion in cuts to clean energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Democrats see an opportunity to put GOP senators who didn’t want these aggressive repeals in a tough spot.

— SNAP: Democrats are also planning to highlight Republicans’ cuts to federal food assistance programs, which have caused heartburn for the GOP.

……

Tillis on a warpath. Newly liberated Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) isn’t holding back after his shocking retirement announcement Sunday.

Tillis gave two floor speeches Sunday night slamming the GOP reconciliation bill’s Medicaid cuts and phase-outs of clean energy tax credits. Tillis also spoke with reporters about his decision not to seek reelection. (More below on the succession race.)

On the floor, Tillis said Republicans were “betraying” Trump’s promise, adding that he told the president the bill “will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.” Tillis told Republicans that, “It’s going to be a massive mistake” if Republicans move forward with it.

Tillis insisted, however, that he’s not trying to undermine Senate GOP leaders.

“I’m not that kind of guy,” Tillis said. “I mean, if you’ve got to surprise or jam your conference to get something done, you’re a pretty shitty legislator.”

And here’s their take on the House:

Here’s the box that Johnson finds himself in.

House conservatives were promised $2 trillion in spending cuts if Republicans were to cut taxes by $4.5 trillion. The Senate fell short of the spending cut goal.

And moderates are freaked about the cuts to Medicaid, which have gotten harsher in the Senate bill. The Senate’s Medicaid cuts total close to $1 trillion – far more than what the middle of the House GOP was comfortable with.

The White House believes it can assuage these concerns and get the bill passed by Friday. Trump himself is going to have to play a very big role here.

HFC’s response: The House Freedom Caucus previewed on Sunday what we believe will be their chief argument against the measure, saying that the Senate bill “adds $1.3 trillion to the deficit,” which is 1,705% more than the House bill.

The simple fact here is that the HFC is almost certain to demand a bunch of changes to the Senate’s reconciliation package – changes that Johnson will desperately want to avoid.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the most vocal members of the HFC, is already railing against the bill’s treatment of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Roy has been urging House and Senate Republican leadership to end all tax credits and said Sunday that the Senate’s bill leaves “in place about half of the subsidies.”

The HFC has every incentive to hold out here. Many of them reluctantly voted to advance the reconciliation bill from the House last month with the misplaced hope that the Senate would accede to the hard right’s demands.

Johnson has told his leadership team that he intends to work on another reconciliation bill in the fall — something he’s sure to tell conservatives also. But as the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, it will become even more difficult to pass legislation cutting federal spending.

The no’s: So far, the GOP has a slew of declared no votes. We are keeping track of all the movements in our Big Mad Index.

It seems all-but-guaranteed that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will vote against the bill.

Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) have said they’ll vote no as well. Both could have tricky reelections next year and both don’t like the Senate’s Medicaid changes.

Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he will vote no because he doesn’t like the SALT deal that his fellow New York Republicans cut with the Trump administration. Few believe LaLota will vote no at the end of the day, but he’s someone to keep a close eye on.

Conservative Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) and Andy Harris (R-Md.) have indicated they aren’t happy with the package. Harris — the HFC chair — caught a lot of flak when he voted present on the bill in the House. So Harris may be incentivized to vote no on final passage.

My take - passage of this thing while likely is not assured. The sudden get-the-fuck-outta-here retirements of Senator Thom Tillis (NC) and Rep. Don Bacon (NE-2) is a sign of how hard it is going to be for competitive Rs to sell this big, ugly, monstrosity back home. Senate Rs have crapped all over the House Rs. Trump just had the worst week of polling of his second term. The bill is polling worse than the tariffs!

The economy is continuing to slow, the deficit is rising, our credit was downgraded, the financial markets hate the bill. Trump’s trade agenda has failed and become a global embarrassment for him. Here’s the Financial Times today:

As we go forward into the world I think our highest message priority this week is to focus on whether America and the American people are winning not whether Trump is. Whether Trump gets a “win” this week is immaterial. It is whether we get a win, and this bill is a stone cold fucking loser for America and the American people. Trump’s “more for me, less for you” agenda is already making us poorer, weaker, less safe and less free.

This bill will make it even worse.

From Don Moynihan’s Substack

I will be going live with Stuart Stevens of Lincoln Square at 11am ET to talk about all this. You can join us live by clicking on this link at 11am.

Finally, today needs to be a day of action, of protest, of patriotism - they need to hear the roar of disapproval from all of us today. Below I give you a variety of ways to do this - donate on this critical last filing day of the 2nd quarter, contact your Senators and Rep. EVERYONE READING THIS SHOULD CALL THEIR CONGRESSIONAL REPS TODAY REGARDLESS OF PARTY. JUST CALL. BE LOUD. MAKE YOUR VOICE HEARD. CALL YOUR GOVERNOR, YOUR STATE LEGISLATIVE LEADERS. JUST CALL. AND CALL AGAIN. WE NEED TO LEAVE IT ALL OUT THERE ON THE PLAYING FIELD EVERYONE.

The most important Senators to call today are Collins (ME), Murkowski (AK) and Tillis (NC). If they join Rand Paul in voting against the bill it will fail. Murkowski’s dirty deal with Thune unraveled last night so she is more in play now. Folks in these states have an incredible obligation to get in Senator’s faces today.

If you live in one of these 29 House district call. Get your friends and neighbors to call, email and visit their district offices. Call your state party and ask to work with them in creating loudness. There needs to be an uprising this week. Don’t wait for others - organize it in your community, lead. Just do it.

Friends, this is a day of action, not one of discussion, deliberation or debate. We need to be loud. We need to leave it all out there on the playing field. We need to push ourselves out of our comfort zone. We need to do it for our kids and grandkids are counting on us, and we are cannot for one second let them down…..

Now, Let’s Get To Work All

Support Hopium’s Priority Candidates - June 30th Filing Deadline Is Today - Please Considering Donating!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - We had our best day of candidate fundraising yesterday in some time. Let’s keep it going!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

• Mikie Sherrill NJ Gov - $200,000 goal ($25k by 6/30), $24,000 raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

• Abigail Spanberger VA Gov - $200,000 goal, $142k raised - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Watch Our Interview

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• Hopium House 7 - $200,000 goal, $145k raised - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer, Watch Our Interviews

We also have ongoing campaigns to support the new DNC, the North Carolina Democratic Party and to thank Senator Cory Booker for his spirited leadership in a time of enormous challenge.

1 - Stop The Reconciliation Bill - Job One for us this summer remains fighting Trump’s ruinous and deeply unpopular economic agenda. We need to keep calling every day and demand our leaders vote down the reconciliation bill and roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs. This is the big, definitional battle of the summer and we need keep working it every day. Those of you in states with Republican Senators have a particularly important role to play in the coming weeks.

Here’s a possible script to use to fight the reconciliation bill and tariffs. Use whatever works for you:

I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.

But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.

Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.

2 - Get The Military Off Our Streets, Fight Trump’s Inhumane Immigration Escalation - Contact your Rep and Senators to demand they fight Trump’s illegal use of the National Guard and Marines in California. Encourage Democrats at all levels of government to a stand with Governor Newsom and the California - for Trump is not just attacking California, he is attacking the rights and freedoms of all of us. See my recent interviews with Joe Garcia, Leon Krauze and Senator Chris Van Hollen for more.

In the coming days I want to work with all of you to do something more explicit about demanding the end of masked, plain clothes “police” snatching people here in America without warrants.

3 - Own The Fourth, The Flag And Patriotism - To keep our momentum going after this weekend’s No Kings events I encourage to explore ways of Owning The Fourth and make our Independence Day an ugly one for our mad wannabe king.

Inspired by the tactics of our Founders, learn about how Hopium members are advancing “resolutions of condemnation” in their communities across the country and consider bringing this initiative to your state, country or city/town. Our resolutions passed in New Mexico this week, others are working to bring them forward - let’s keep the mo’ going everyone!

4 -Volunteer To Help Your State and/or Local Democratic Parties Stand Up Voter Registration Efforts - In the presentation he made to our community on Friday Tom Bonier made a persuasive case that Democrats must once again make partisan voter registration a national priority. State and local Democratic Parties are in the planning stages to take this on. Members of our community should consider contacting their state and local parties and offer to help stand up these vital efforts in the coming months.

For more on the need to make partisan voter registration great again see my recent interview with Jane Kleeb, Nebraska Democratic Party Chair, DNC Vice Chair and President of the Association of Democratic State Committees.

5 - Stand Up For Science - Sign on to the critically important Bethesda Declaration and watch my interview with Stand Up For Science’s Executive Director Colette Delawalla. Signing on to the Declaration is one concrete way you can take action today.

For more on the need to fight Trump’s war on science, research, academia and our public health see my recent interview with noted climate scientist Dr. Michael Mann.

Please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Grow Hopium - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 152,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. If each current paid subscriber brings in just one new subscriber this summer we will hit our goal.

To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day!

Keep working hard all. Proud to be in this fight with all of you, and a fight it surely is - Simon