103 Comments
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Jun 20
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Peter I've taken this post down. It was just a dump of negativity on to the site with no effort to inform or analyze. Please do better in the future.

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Simon, could you elaborate on why the NYT has consistently negative coverage of Biden’s numbers? It doesn’t make sense to me. —Molly, Commit to Democracy

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Biden won't sit down for a one-on-one with the paper's owner. That's it.

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It just comes down that President Biden and the campaign view little value in an interview with the NYT, and the paper does not like that.

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I agree with Meg and Josh. I also feel that the NYT and others don't understand how fired up and motivated women are. I'm in my 60's and will do whatever it takes as long as it takes to get my rights back. I remember the bad old days--couldn't have a credit card in my own name, wasn't taken seriously in a "man's job", no right to bodily autonomy. I am totally optimistic that we will succeed. Whether NYT realizes or not, we're the majority of the electorate. It's math.

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💃🏻💃🏻💃🏻👍👍👍

I’m with you Karen! 🇺🇸🇺🇸

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I agree with Meg, Josh, and Karen. Historical context also is informative: coverage of Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton

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Speaking as a former Republican, I don't know where conservatives ever got the idea the New York Times is some radical left-wing newspaper. It typically was only ever cited by the Rush/Hannity types when they agreed with them, like, "even the radical left-wing New York Times agrees with us!"

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I think the complexity of the NYTimes situation is that they have top-notch investigative reporting (and for that reason would be anathema to right wing propaganda outfits).

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The NYT is certainly one of the leaders of the lamestream media.

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This is why the Hopium community is so strong- our leader is a pundit who believes in grassroots activism. Wish there were more talking heads out there who were like Simon, put your money where your mouth is. I think we all have a clear picture of where this election stands and what is at stake, why not use your popularity and influence as Simon does, to support and join grassroots activists in ACTIVISM.

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Great news! I encourage everyone to read that lengthy Fox article about their poll. Lots of great analysis and many fascinating details! (Edit: Joe details some of this in his excellent comment.) The significant change in voter sentiments on numerous issues unveiled by this poll is clear testimony to successful messaging by the Biden-Harris Campaign!

I expect we’ll soon see much more movement towards President Biden in the weeks ahead.

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My issue with the Fox poll is that it is nationwide. I mean, sure, I'll take the win and be happy for Joe... but, thing is our elections are dependent on swing states/electoral college. That makes this poll less useful (at least if you believe in polls anymore).

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Both national and swing-state polls have value, for different reasons. I am sure we’ll see more of the latter in the weeks ahead. Hopefully they will reinforce the trend we’re already seeing in the national polls.

Edit: As I understand it, it is far more difficult, and costly, to conduct quality state-wide polls, especially of certain swing-states.

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Anyone else notice that whatever the news, The Washington Post writes a piece about how it's good for Trump? Today it's the 34 felony convictions caused a surge of donations for ... Donald Trump. Didn't read it.

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Yes, I too have the impression that the editors are putting their thumb on the scale, in favor of trump. And for a long time quite a number of their columnists have been idiots who are committing malpractice with a pen!

Jeff Bezos is in the process of ruining the once-proud Washington Post. They have recruited and put in charge people from Murdoch-owned newspapers in the UK – people who were involved in the infamous phone-hacking scandal.

I recently re-subscribed after receiving a dirt-cheap offer, admittedly with mixed feelings. But I am very selective in what I read. Some of their writers are stellar; Jennifer Rubin is a good example.

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I used to enjoy reading WA Post. A few months ago, I resubscribed for a year. Now? Ugh. It is almost as bad as The NY Times. Well, actually, I subscribe to NY Times - Games only - still feel kind of dirty about it.

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Overall, especially for election-related coverage, I prefer The Guardian. I subscribe but it has no paywall. I am also rather fond of the American Prospect (prospect.org), especially the articles on economic matters by Robert Kuttner, and the best of David Dayen’s articles.

The DailyKos (dailykos.com) is also good, at least their best writers. And their election coverage is stellar.

I also highly recommend Bolts Magazine (boltsmag.org), founded by Daniel Nichanian. Therein I find excellent articles on topics that I see nowhere else.

Soon, I’ll probably be adding a subscription to Talking Points Memo (talkingpointsmemo.com). I already get their newsletter. I really like Josh Marshall’s approach to journalism!

I start most days by reading historian Heather Cox Richardson’s "Letters from an American", which I get as a newsletter in my inbox. Highly recommended!

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Really disappointed in Bezos. I knew the paper had gone right but didn't realize it is being run by the same people behind the UK phone-hacking scandal. Gross

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They have backtracked a bit on this:

"Robert Winnett will not join The Post as editor"

https://wapo.st/3VVC6cm

* This is a gifted article, so no paywall.

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I love Jen Rubin, she is one of my few "must reads" in the Post now. I also used to read Greg Sargant and Paul Waldman who no longer work there. Sargent is now at the New Republic and has a podcast "The Daily Blast" (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-blast-with-greg-sargent/id1728152109) and Waldman has a substack "The Cross Section" (https://paulwaldman.substack.com/)

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I like Greg Sargent. Thanks.

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I think what the Fox poll shows is that, while it is a national poll, the trajectory is moving towards Biden and not away from him. I used to follow polls more closely but now I can't tell which ones are decent polls and which ones are garbage. But if the trend is moving in one direction, I think it tell us something. Right now, take the win. If nothing else, at least we didn't have to hear TRUMP IS HEAD, BIDEN IS IN TROUBLE!

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Hi Simon. I think there is a typo on the fundraising numbers for the Blue Dot campaign today. Thank you for all that you are doing!

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Simon's presentation on how FDR set in motion a golden age in human history is one of the best articulated perspectives I have heard. I have read a lot of history, but Simon has made what the Democratic party has accomplished front and center, exactly where it belongs. It is clear and concise and I thoroughly believe it is fair and accurate. And the stakes could not be higher in this election. It's a big deal.

Thanks, Simon.

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Hear, hear, Robert. I grew up in a Republican household and used to get chills listening to Reagan speeches and thinking about the end of the Cold War. But, with more life experience and a brilliant thought leader like Simon in my ear, I’m seeing the absolutely epoch-defining impact of FDR and the trans-Atlantic movements of the mid-20th century. So much of today’s political environment feels ephemeral. Connecting our work to the broader movement of freedom and prosperity is more than just energizing—it’s sustaining.

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I would not be surprised if Trump drops out of the debate June 27th with some sort of lame excuse. I've been noticing that there seems to be some apprehension on the part of some commentators in the right-wing media (Hannity for one) about this debate. Fear is that their guy is going to flop and make Biden look even better. Also worthy to note that Trump isn't even prepping for the debate because he thinks he doesn't have to. That's like preparing for a final exam without studying! Ah, but I forget, Trump is a "stable" genius and stable geniuses do not need to prep for debates or study the facts and so forth!

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Oh he’s absolutely not going to show up. There’s zero chance the debate makes him look good and all his handlers know it. But I wish he would. It would be amusing to watch Joe Biden grin and shake his head as trump gets lost down a shark rabbit hole.

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Okay, now I'm imagining a rabbit hole filled with sharks.... 😳😂

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Good one!

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I could see it now! It's debate night on CNN. President Biden comes up to the podium. And then all of a sudden moderator John King (or whoever is moderating) comes out looking sheepishly embarrassed saying. "Sorry folks, former President Trump has decided on the last minute not to show up." A ratings disaster for CNN. But then Hannity and the other talking heads at Fox and Newsmax will chalk it up as a "win" for Trump because he made fools of Biden and CNN. We'll wait and see.

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I think it's possible Trump shows up and then storms off in a huff over something stupid trying to make headlines.

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I’d love another exasperated “Would you shut up, man?” from Biden to Trump.

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Britta I have bet $100 that Trump won't show up, although I wish he would!

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By repeatedly saying that Biden is a drooling invalid who can barely put two words together, Trump sets the expectations for Biden at rock bottom. Biden has performed well in every presidential and vice-presidential debate he’s done. He’s good at them.

Hannity is right to be concerned- Trump certainly has not demonstrated his ability to perform well during debates (see his meandering asides during his rallies or his meeting with the CEOs who all left saying he’d completely lost it). He probably should drop out, but his ego may not let him…

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I was pretty certain he would back out too. But I wonder if he’s just such an egotistical narcissist that he thinks he has already won and wants to show off how wonderful and inevitable he is. I think they should let him go over the 2 minute limit - it’s when he rambles that he comes out with the biggest most inscrutable word salads.

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Jun 20Edited

The 2-point lead is a nice moral victory (it's nice to see the Right have a "freak out" poll for once) but to me the real wins here were under the hood:

- Biden was at 45% approval with only 5% from Republicans. 86% with Dems and 42% with Independents are both way better than a lot of other polls.

- The poll actually asked people how important candidate traits were to them. The results (in terms of % "Extremely"): Leadership 66%; Integrity 61%; Age and Mental Soundness 45%(!!).

- For the first time in a poll for a while, "Future of American Democracy" beat Economy in terms of issues. This is also the first poll I've seen include "Stability and Normalcy" as an issue. More should, because it came in third. Immigration came in fifth (!!), tied with Health Care (!!).

- Of the 10 issues where the poll had respondents compare candidates, Biden led 6 to Trump's 4. Two of the Trump leads were for Gaza and Guns, which don't matter. Both the Immigration and Economy issues were within 10 points, with Trump down to a 5-point lead on the economy. This tracks with other June polls that have shown plummeting leads for Trump on the economy (even when they don't show Biden leading the horserace).

- One not-so-great trend in June continued in this poll: Republicans suddenly jumped out ahead in terms of intention to vote. That's given Trump either ties or leads in "Likely Voter" sections of polls Biden led in April and May. Probably meaningless, and we have other better measures of propensity, but one hopes Dems catch up. It's possible Trump's conviction galvanized his supporters to at least say they'll vote.

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Also, I try very hard to not care about polls, but the 538 average for today has Trump's lead down to 0.1%, the best Biden has ever been doing this year (the YouGov/Economist tie helped too). Trump leads their model by 1%, but whatever.

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Biden leads in five of the six polls listed listed by 538, with one tied. Encouraging trend!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

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Any idea how long 538 keeps old polls in their average? Is it a time limit or is it a last number of various polls they use in their composite poll?

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Well, the average moved 0.2% toward Biden during a two hour period where nothing was added, so I have no idea. Maybe they drop older polls at exactly the time of day they were added?

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Further comment - for no discernible reason (no new polls have been added since this morning), Biden has taken the lead.

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That's 538 with their infamous secret sauce.

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Thanks for the additional deep-dive, Joe!

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Makes sense that healthcare would move further down the list with so many more people being insured; we need to remind people trump wants to go back to the bad old days of people holding raffles and coin tosses so their kid could get cancer treatment. I think Gaza does matter some, but there's a chance it gets worked out before the election ( I do wish people knew more history; please check out Joe Berlinger's excellent documentary on Hitler on Netflix; he does not hide the parallels with today's GOP; also, the segment on Dresden....).

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I want to comment that I’ve had more success than I ever expected pushing back on news organizations that post confusing and misleading news stories about the upcoming election. I’ve reached out to The NY Times and Axios multiple times—and, each time, I’ve received actual, if sometimes defensive, responses, rather than the useless form-generated responses I expected. When I’ve questioned their interpretations of data, and mischaracterizations of results—thanks to this well-informed community—I’ve struck a nerve. It’s hard to know how all these actions add up, but I believe they have an impact and leave me feeling empowered.

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Jun 21
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I really appreciate your comments, Evan. My experience has been that rarely is the Times anti-Biden, but, more often, it and other traditional media slant the headlines to be as “alarmist for Biden” as possible. And, I assume, this is a strategy for selling subscriptions to panic-fueled Dems.

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I think the big blind spot of media watchers is that Trump has co-opted all of the media, not just the right wing. Traditional media are dying, so they’ll do whatever they can to stay alive, including lots of “sky is falling” stories about Trump. Trump has simply hacked them.

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important work, David. Keep it up. Little steps to big steps.

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David, I am curious: Are you reaching out to the editors or the journalists, or both?

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Editors. Nicholas Johnston has been pretty spicy in his responses… but he’s reading my messages. nick@axios.com

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good to hear. I just stopped reading them, your engaging editors is much more productive

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Thanks, David. I will start doing that as well. -- Molly, Commit to Democracy

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David, your method is better than mine. I just say "F those guys" and move you. You are actually making a difference. Go, you!!!!!

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Even though I plan on voting straight-ticket Dem until the MAGA scourge has subsided, I don’t want one-party rule in our country. It’s the case where I live in California. Not good for innovation or engagement. Most large news organizations try, I think to be bipartisan (with several notable exceptions), so they need feedback in order to calibrate.

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That is great, David! Way to go! And thanks for sharing.

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Great job, thank you!

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Interesting that tfg’s social media stock has been tanking since his conviction. Should we attach any political meaning to this?

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I believe they hired a new auditor in May who is now publishing accurate analysis of the company. Their last auditor got in trouble with the SEC for "massive fraud in preparing regulatory filings". Because, of course.

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I think it's $55,000 for Nebraska/Blue Dot not $5,000.

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Great video!

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Simon Rosenberg for President 2028.

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Simon Rosenberg for Communications Czar – in charge of highlighting and drawing attention to all the good stuff the Biden Administration is doing, on a continual basis

(If this had been done more professionally during the last three years and five months, the Biden-Harris Campaign would have less of a steep challenge today.)

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If I didn’t love the NYT Crossword puzzle and their occasional outstanding journalism (recent article about failed military policy in Africa, e.g.), I’d cancel my subscription. Their anti Biden bias is so transparent as to be comical. This morning’s was about weakness among women. I don’t click but I shook my head and went to Hopium.

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Oh, I know — I saw that headline about weakness with women and thought, there they go again.

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RE: Ukraine spending

The arms etc are manufactured here.

They are creating jobs for Americans.

I think that is not well understood and is a very salient point

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I’m not trying to dampen the mood. I’m only asking for understanding. This forecast came out and it’s more favorable to trump. I don’t get, with all this good polling for Biden, why this forecast is going the other way. I don’t know who this guy is, but he had some data from people I think maybe reliable though I am only familiar with 2 of them. https://x.com/jhkersting/status/1803567399007817984?s=46&t=nr2n_n5w45zBpCMqbdbVlA. But no matter what the polls show, we all got to get out and vote and get other people also to vote which I know this group is working very hard to do!

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Hi Abbi,

I clicked on the link and quick look at his w-site. IMO, suspicious with its format and no “about” info. My guess is amateur or possibly young GOP operative. My Truth-o-Meter rates this as FALSE.

Yes, no matter what the polls show, we have much work to do !

✍️📲💲👕🛒

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Thank you! I didn’t know what to make if it.

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