Big Dem Flips In Florida, Iran War Has Gone To Shit, The "Deal" To Reopen DHS/TSA Falls Apart - The Regime Is Failing, Weakening, Coming Apart

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Morning all. The burnt orange one is having a really bad week. Let’s dive in:

Dems Flips Two State Legislative Seats in Florida

Last night, we flipped both a state house seat and a state senate seat in Florida. Both Republican districts, and the state house seat includes Palm Beach and Mar-a-Lago. So yes Donald Trump’s failed and ugly politics has even turned a traditionally red state legislative seat, where he and Epstein and others in the Epstein class have lived and partied, blue.

Dems have been on a roll in Florida. We’ve flipped the two largest cities in the state, Miami and Jacksonville; just flipped the city of Boca Raton, which had been red for over 20 years; have been overperforming in races across the state since Trump was elected in 2024. Florida Dem Chair Nikki Fried came by a few days ago to talk about our momentum in the Sunshine State, and preview these state legislative races that we won last night. Here is what she told us:

Yeah, and so first of all, to all of your supporters and to our supporters, thank you. We cannot do this work without you. So yes, since I came on and since I gave a briefing on the state of affairs here in the state of Florida, we have seen how the investments are producing results. Now we have a proof of concept. Last year, the Florida Democratic Party, with your help, has really put in our year-round ground game, our year-round organizing model called the Pendulum Project, which means that we’re going to all parts of our state all year round. We’ve got boots on the ground, people making phone calls, people doing voter registration on our college campuses. And so what did that result in?

17 seats flipped last year here in the state of Florida. Everything all the way down to the Keys, all the way up to our panhandle and everything in between. In fact, the national average for movement to the left was 12 points. Here in the state of Florida, because of incredible candidates that we’ve been able to recruit, year-round organizing, the support from our donors across the state and across the country, that we overperformed the national average by five points. That wasn’t a fluke of nature. And so we last year flipped these seats… the city of Miami to the first time in 30 years that we have a Democrat leading city of Miami and Miami-Dade County. And so this is a really exciting thing. Not only Democrats, but two women for the first time. Elected women in the county.

And so this year we are excited about 2026. We’ve already flipped one, two, three, four seats just this year alone, including which will be a recount on Friday. But we are extremely optimistic that we are flipping the city of Boca. So that’s a Palm Beach County area. And we have special elections all throughout this month as well, including in Palm Beach County, the home of Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, that House District 87 with Emily Gregory. So at that point, after she flips that seat, Donald Trump [will] be represented by a Democratic member of Congress, a Democratic state senator, a Democratic House member.

But realistically, there’s so much excitement and so much work that has been done on the ground. We’ve got incredible candidates that have stepped up to the plate from an abundance of veterans, from our U.S. Senate races, to all the way down to school board races and everything in between that are running for… Congress, really engaging in their elections. We’ve got first responders. We’ve got teachers. We’ve got people who are just walk of life saying, I’m frustrated with this moment. We are seeing the organization coming together on the ground, and we’re making tremendous strides to to shock the nation in November and pick up a whole lot of seats and protect democracy, not just here in Florida, but across the country.

You can watch the whole, encouraging interview with Chair Fried here:

Progress In The Sunshine State - Florida Dem Chair Nikki Fried Drops By For A Visit

Florida is one of the five states we’ve been investing in through our Audacious Expansion Fund, a project we established last year to help us take advantage of what was likely to be a good cycle and win again in red states and red places. We’ve invested almost $100,000 so far in the Florida Democratic Party this cycle - thanks to all of you who have contributed! You can learn more and support this vital work to help us win in hard places this year here.

Yes, 2026 is a year of opportunity for the pro-democracy movement. Let’s keep working hard to make sure this the election we all want it to be.

Trump Gets Worst Major National Poll Of His Presidency

From Ipsos/Reuters:

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by a surge ​in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the war he launched on Iran, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

The four-day poll, completed on Monday, showed 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s ‌job performance, down from 40% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week.

Last week Trump was 40%-58% (-18) in this poll. This week he is 36%-62% (-26), an eight point net drop in a single week. Look at the trend lines - Holy Trumpian meltdown Batman!

Whatever Notional Deal To Reopen DHS/TSA That Was Coming Together Has Fallen Apart

So, we will learn more about this as the day goes on but when I went to press yesterday the Senate Republican Leadership was celebrating the deal they had struck which would have split off ICE funding from the rest of the DHS appropriation, allowing a quick vote to fund TSA, CISA and other parts of DHS that have run out of money. The only problem? They never ran this deal by the Senate Democrats (I am honestly shocked by this), and Senate Dems said no yesterday (from The Hill):

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) rejected the latest Republican offer Tuesday afternoon but suggested it could be improved through further negotiation.

He and other Democrats said the Republican offer they received earlier Tuesday fell short because it did not include Democrats’ demanded reforms to ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), such as requiring federal immigration officers to obtain judicial warrants and prohibiting federal agents from wearing masks.

“We have to rein in ICE and stop the violence. We need reform,” Schumer said at a press conference after meeting with his Democratic colleagues at lunch. “Every one of my colleagues, every one, A, believes we should be unified, and, B, we need reforms of ICE — every single one.”

Schumer said Democrats would send a counteroffer.

In this story and others Senate Rs go on the record saying that the splitting off of ICE funding to be voted on through reconciliation is unworkable. So this “deal” Thune put together, and thought he had sold to Trump, appears to be falling apart this morning, and the airport lines and chaos continues.

I want to be very clear that the reason that our airports remain dangerous and the lines too long, as we’ve been discussing, that Trump is no longer capable of negotiating or cutting deals. His arrogance, vainglory, and decline now only allow him “wins” - not “win-wins.” The Republicans working on the 2026 elections in the White House and Congress have been desperate to turn a page on the Miller/ICE/mass deportation fiasco. Neom and Bovino are gone; they installed one of their own as DHS Secretary; they want to reform ICE and make this whole thing disappear. But Trump just cannot let that happen. Stomping his feet and throwing his tantrums Trump has made it clear he doesn’t want any deal with the Dems on DHS/ICE; if there is to be a deal it has to include SAVE; and he has not yet publicly endorsed the deal Thune thought he had struck with the White House on Monday night. It is a shambolic shitshow. Meanwhile Dems are holding the line and doing the right thing here.

I literally have no idea what is going to happen now. But like with Iran there is no longer any face saving win here for Trump, only a humiliating cut and run loss - or a path that continues to do remarkable harm for the nation and his degraded political standing here at home. Yes, as we discussed Trump is now in the destructive throws of three Vietnams - the war, ICE/mass deportation/TSA, and tariffs/weakening US economy. His only real option in all three is to cut and run, and take the loss - but as we’ve been discussing, humiliating losses is not Trump’s bag, and so he does what he does when feeling weak and scared - he escalates, and worsens the vicious cycle/escalatory trap of his three Vietnams.

OMG, The War

Trump is in a serious bind here now, a far more serious bind than the DHS/ICE fiasco. For if he cuts and runs now, today, he will leave Iran a stronger power in the Middle East than before the war began. It’s why the Saudis, the Israelis, and the Emirates are pushing Trump to keep going, further weaken Iran, and attempt to take control of the Strait of Hormuz. For if he leaves now it will be a geopolitical catastrophe for the US, Europe, Israel, and the Gulf Arab states - for the Russian-Iranian “Shahed” alliance will be strengthened, not weakened. So there is a powerful logic now to keep going, and keep fighting.

While the domestic logic has always argued for ending an unpopular war, the reality Trump now faces is that even if he finds some bullshit way to claim “victory” Iran may not let that happen, and can keep terrorizing the Strait and keep our economy - and his political and electoral prospects - in the shitter. Meaning there is no easy way any longer to “end the war” and have everything magically snap back to where things were before. Easy peasy.

The Guardian Home Page, 920am 3/25/2026

Cutting through all the magical thinking that dominates our discourse - and Wall Street in particular - pro-democracy forces here in the US should start preparing to enter into something like a national unity coalition with Thune and Johnson to forestall possible geopolitical and economic catastrophe for the United States in the coming months. We have the take the keys away from Trump. He’s a failed and disastrous leader. He’s pushed the entire world into a deeply dangerous crisis. He’s done lasting, world-altering damage to our global brand, and to our nation here at home. We cannot trust him to lead us through the international and domestic crises he has created. There is no easy fix any more. Things aren’t going to snap back and be all good. Far more dramatic measures have to start being discussed.

Look at this story in The Guardian today. America has enabled this, we are supporting this - for Trump is getting his cut of the oil.

Look at this. The US is now losing the war against the Iran-Russia Shahed Alliance; Trump is begging Europe and NATO to help bail him out the Iranian mess he has created; Ukraine has come to the aid of the US and the Gulf Arab states to fight Russian-Iran; and Trump loudly and aggressively endorses the Shaded Alliance’s most important ally in Europe, giving a huge middle finger to every European and Ukrainian.

I am not an alarmist by nature, but I think we all underestimating the potential danger of the cascading crises Trump has created. Things may all work out but if they don’t things could get very bad for America; and we should be far more interested in now in preventing the damage to come than picking up the pieces. We all need to be thinking far more creatively, ambitiously, and aggressively to figure out how we restore sanity and adult leadership in America, given the structural limits of our democracy.

Finally, congrats everyone. Our success in Florida last night was wildly encouraging, and we just have to keep working as hard as we can……

Now, Let’s Get To Work Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight to talk about all this. Register here - look forward to seeing folks!

Winning The Midterms, Competing In Red States and Red Places, Expanding The Map

Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $349,800 raised, $400,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all twelve of our endorsed House challengers with one click | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) and learn more about the eight candidates we just added to our campaign here.

We will be meeting the rest of our newly expanded slate of intrepid House candidates in the coming weeks. It’s a great crew! This fundraising total includes funds already raised with our friends at FridayAction for a joint event we’re doing tomorrow night.

James Talarico For Texas - $34,100 raised, $100,000 March 31st goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More | Watch my recent interview with Rep. Talarico

Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $52,700 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and Learn More. | Watch my new interview with Mary Peltola

Winning Ohio - $82,200 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue!

Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $90,300 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $145,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $423,200 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, and catch interviews with 5 intrepid state party chairs leading us into battle this year.

Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties.

Advocate For The Hopium Agenda/Pass Resolutions Of Condemnation In Your Community/Sign Up For No Kings on March 28th

There are a few more ways to go to work in the coming days - call your leaders and advocate for elements of our working, ever evolving Hopium Agenda; bring resolutions that condemn our Mad King and lets facts be spoken to a candid world to your state or local government; sign up for a No Kings event and watch my new interview with Indivisible’s Ezra Levin, a driving force behind No Kings.

Here’s our working Hopium Post-Iran Disaster Agenda:

• Work To End This New Gulf War, And Trump’s Global Imperial Ambitions

• Make Clear We Support Ukraine and Europe, Not Russia

• Roll Back The New, Illegal Tariffs

• Rescind The Trump Tax Cuts, Claw Back The Extra ICE Funding

• Make The US A Clean Energy Superpower, Fight For True Energy Independence, And Lower Energy Prices For The American People

• Keep Fighting To Rein In ICE, End Mass Deportation

• End the War on Science, Health and Public Health

• Make Clear To American Farmers That We Want To End The War, Repeal The Tariffs, Find Legal Pathways For Farm Workers, And Make Health Care And Energy More Affordable

This week our calls should clearly focus on reining in the illegal war in the Middle East and ICE here at home, rescind the tariffs, and on blocking the “SAVE Act.”

Keep working hard all. We have a country to save and an election to win, together! - Simon