Simon, can you comment on the Popular Vote movement to reform the Electoral College.... supposedly we’re 5 or 6 states away from getting it done and that should help with the disparity innate in the Electoral College itself, right?
I'm in NC and I made calls for Salas this morning. Two weeks ago I was making calls for Suozzi. My prediction is that by November we Hopium addicts will be knowledgeable about more campaigns than we ever thought possible and happy that we are! Let's do this!
"Small" is a kind description for a poll of this complexity. The poll interviews 128 Hispanic and 108 Blacks to make the assertion that Biden is somehow losing those voter groups.
Ridiculous in the extreme.
Imagine you were the chief marketing exec for a consumer product purchased by 175 million Americans. You had a $500 million marketing budget to allowocate across the US. Is there any version of reality in which you would poll just 128 Hispanic consumers and 108 Black consumers to decide how to target your advertising?
Nate Cohn should be fired and the Sienna polling org should be dropped.
New subscriber here. What is the Hopium Paid Subscriber Monthly Gathering? Personally, I think these pollsters know exactly what they are doing - they want to depress Biden turnout. They sure get defensive with when they get challenged by actual data. Thanks to Simon and also Tom Bonier. I pretty much only read their analysis (ok, ok after sneaking a look at other polling).
Thanks for the link to donate to the Biden-Harris campaign! I never donate via the direct emails because it seems that one donation triggers an avalanche of emails. I may be wrong about where the spam comes from, but I prefer to go directly to the candidate's website whenever I donate to campaigns in key states.
Monthly donor for Biden/Harris campaign. Early donor for NC. I don't pay attention to the polls because voters vote not polls. Learned that in 2022 when Simon said there was no 'red wave." Just trying to stayed focused on getting Biden/Harris back into the WH along with Congress. Enduring the next 8 months will be a test to my fortitude. Pushing the orange toad off the cliff with his minions will be my greatest voting gift to our country. LFG
I live in a very blue state, so not concerned about candidates here but always looking for suggestions from Simon to help in other parts of the country. It's why I'm here.
As an added note, I am finally going to be able to vote early in person in the primary and general here in CT. We had a ballot question in the 2022 election to get onboard with other states and there was a resounding YES from voters here in CT. Complex issue because of our state constitution. In what is known here as "the land of steady habits" this is one that we have gotten past and hope that we can make more progress in the future to also be able to vote early by mail and no excuse absentee voting. Work in progress here in the Constitution state.
I know everyone's focused on the primaries...I hope we'll soon see some rallies other than Trump rallies--would LOVE to see all sorts of marches to energize people and get everyone registered to vote. I don't know who organizes such things, but, gosh, it would be great to start building huge momentum and get previously inactive voters ready to go this fall!
"There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility. It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992."
Did these pollsters get punked? I haven't picked up the phone for a poll in years, so I am very fuzzy on the methodology and how they determine party affiliation. Do they know in advance or are they dependent on what the person being polled tells them? I have the same question about how they determine "likely voter" status.
As a woman, I can tell you I will be voting staright Democrat for the rest of my life! (Not that I was inclined to vote for anyone in the GOP before they all went off the rails: but at least I wasn't worried they would destroy democracy back then).
I do have a few female friends who admitted to voting for Trump in 2016. None of them are admitting to voting for him in 2020 and I know several of them re-registered as independents in 2021 wanting nothing to do with the GOP after they failed to impeachTrump for Jan 6.
And that was BEFORE the GOP's assault on reproductive rights and forcing 10 year olds to bear their rapist's child and women being refused care if they suffered a miscarriage unless they were practically on death's door.
And yet we are expected to believe that Trump as an adjudicated rapist in 2024 is MORE popular with women than he was in 2020?? I DON'T THINK SO!!
Thanks Simon!
Thank you Simon. I just now sent this to my wife and my friend Steve, with whom I had lunch yesterday and spent an hour giving him a dos
Dose of hopium.
Simon, can you comment on the Popular Vote movement to reform the Electoral College.... supposedly we’re 5 or 6 states away from getting it done and that should help with the disparity innate in the Electoral College itself, right?
What’s with this “Republican weighted” polling?
I'm in NC and I made calls for Salas this morning. Two weeks ago I was making calls for Suozzi. My prediction is that by November we Hopium addicts will be knowledgeable about more campaigns than we ever thought possible and happy that we are! Let's do this!
"Small" is a kind description for a poll of this complexity. The poll interviews 128 Hispanic and 108 Blacks to make the assertion that Biden is somehow losing those voter groups.
Ridiculous in the extreme.
Imagine you were the chief marketing exec for a consumer product purchased by 175 million Americans. You had a $500 million marketing budget to allowocate across the US. Is there any version of reality in which you would poll just 128 Hispanic consumers and 108 Black consumers to decide how to target your advertising?
Nate Cohn should be fired and the Sienna polling org should be dropped.
Simon, No worries, but the table omits the 2022 voting totals, which as I recall, validated your optimism.
New subscriber here. What is the Hopium Paid Subscriber Monthly Gathering? Personally, I think these pollsters know exactly what they are doing - they want to depress Biden turnout. They sure get defensive with when they get challenged by actual data. Thanks to Simon and also Tom Bonier. I pretty much only read their analysis (ok, ok after sneaking a look at other polling).
Thanks for the link to donate to the Biden-Harris campaign! I never donate via the direct emails because it seems that one donation triggers an avalanche of emails. I may be wrong about where the spam comes from, but I prefer to go directly to the candidate's website whenever I donate to campaigns in key states.
Hey all. I love this: https://tinyurl.com/54tanm59
Monthly donor for Biden/Harris campaign. Early donor for NC. I don't pay attention to the polls because voters vote not polls. Learned that in 2022 when Simon said there was no 'red wave." Just trying to stayed focused on getting Biden/Harris back into the WH along with Congress. Enduring the next 8 months will be a test to my fortitude. Pushing the orange toad off the cliff with his minions will be my greatest voting gift to our country. LFG
I live in a very blue state, so not concerned about candidates here but always looking for suggestions from Simon to help in other parts of the country. It's why I'm here.
As an added note, I am finally going to be able to vote early in person in the primary and general here in CT. We had a ballot question in the 2022 election to get onboard with other states and there was a resounding YES from voters here in CT. Complex issue because of our state constitution. In what is known here as "the land of steady habits" this is one that we have gotten past and hope that we can make more progress in the future to also be able to vote early by mail and no excuse absentee voting. Work in progress here in the Constitution state.
I know everyone's focused on the primaries...I hope we'll soon see some rallies other than Trump rallies--would LOVE to see all sorts of marches to energize people and get everyone registered to vote. I don't know who organizes such things, but, gosh, it would be great to start building huge momentum and get previously inactive voters ready to go this fall!
"There are problems with the NYT poll - It has Trump winning both Hispanics and women - an impossibility. It’s likely voter electorate is +3 Republican - something we haven’t seen in a general election in actual voting in 20 years, and only once in the last 8 Presidential elections going all the way back to 1992."
Did these pollsters get punked? I haven't picked up the phone for a poll in years, so I am very fuzzy on the methodology and how they determine party affiliation. Do they know in advance or are they dependent on what the person being polled tells them? I have the same question about how they determine "likely voter" status.
As a woman, I can tell you I will be voting staright Democrat for the rest of my life! (Not that I was inclined to vote for anyone in the GOP before they all went off the rails: but at least I wasn't worried they would destroy democracy back then).
I do have a few female friends who admitted to voting for Trump in 2016. None of them are admitting to voting for him in 2020 and I know several of them re-registered as independents in 2021 wanting nothing to do with the GOP after they failed to impeachTrump for Jan 6.
And that was BEFORE the GOP's assault on reproductive rights and forcing 10 year olds to bear their rapist's child and women being refused care if they suffered a miscarriage unless they were practically on death's door.
And yet we are expected to believe that Trump as an adjudicated rapist in 2024 is MORE popular with women than he was in 2020?? I DON'T THINK SO!!
I’m working in Arkansas to help get Democrats elected. We are a red state , but we have a lot of young people working