Congress Is Back And We Have A Big Economic Argument To Go Win

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Morning all. Let’s start with a few reminders about some meaningful ways Trump, his agenda and his false narratives have been rejected, challenged and defied in recent weeks:

• In what was an incredible repudiation of Trump’s economic agenda, last month, for the first time in over 100 years, all three US credit rating agencies downgraded America’s sovereign credit rating. This weekend the WaPo ran a story about how Wall Street is warning Trump and the GOP to drop their reckless reconciliation bill. Global markets are not buying their “no increase in the deficit” bullshit.

• Two different courts declared their terrible tariffs illegal last week. While a higher court issued a stay allowing the tariffs to remain in place, their future are now very much in doubt. Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO) became a huge, humiliating meme last week. Trump also keeps losing in our court on issue and after issue, even now twice in the Supreme Court.

• The Musk/Chainsaw era came to a sad and very public end last week. Musk is now having to focus on salvaging a deeply damaged Tesla brand (well done all).

• The Ernst “we are all going to die” fiasco from this weekend grew from her getting rattled by her own constituents challenging her at a raucous town hall, and reminded us of the difficulty Rs are going to have in selling their rancid reconciliation bill to the public.

• Yesterday the Ukrainian government showed that they did have “cards to play” and scored one of their greatest victories of this destructive war. Trump’s efforts to impose a Russian-favorable “peace” has been rejected by both Ukraine and Putin, making Trump look weak and feckless.

• Harvard had joyous graduations this week, and the commencement addresses were full of messages defiance and resilience.

A reminder of where the public is on these attacks on Harvard and other universities, % supporting current Trump position:

• cutting scientific and medical research - 11%

• removing tax-exempt status - 30%

• withholding funds to force compliance w/Trump - 27%

We are also starting to see more reporting from red America of his supporters waking up to the realities of of Trump’s incredibly destructive agenda. Hopium community member Chris Dwyer shared this story about the fallout of closed public camp grounds in Pennsylvania:

HESSTON, Pa. — On a blustery Memorial Day weekend, customers trickled into Seven Points Bait & Grocery looking for fingerling trout and nightcrawlers, for scoops of sweet and salty caramel ice cream and propane refills.

They browsed the racks of tourist sweatshirts, too, most of them emblazoned with “Raystown Lake” across the front.

Judy Norris, 81, has owned the store by Pennsylvania’s largest lake for 49 years, though, and she’s seen enough seasonal Saturdays to know the foot traffic wasn’t adding up as summer unofficially kicked off.

“We’re way off, maybe 40 to 50% down,” Norris said, beside the bait tank. “This is Memorial Day weekend. You normally can’t move in here. The parking lot is usually jammed.”

Just down the road, along the shore of the lake in Huntingdon County, gates to some U.S. Army Corps of Engineers campgrounds were shut, and the hundreds of campsites beyond them sat vacant. The playgrounds were empty. A headline on a local newspaper at Norris’ store spelled it out: “Campground closures impact businesses.”

In March, the Army Corps’ Baltimore office announced that 300 of its campsites on the 8,600-acre lake would be closed indefinitely due to “executive-order driven staffing shortages.” Those staffing shortages would require the Army Corps to focus on “dam operations for flood protection and emergency response readiness” ahead of the 2025 season.

Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency has targeted cutbacks at a slew of government agencies, including the Army Corps.

The lake’s Seven Points, Susquehannock, and Nancy’s Boat-to-Shore Campgrounds — all popular and often booked out far ahead of summer — were closed, and the Army Corps began refunding campers who had made reservations.

In addition, farther north in Tioga County, Tompkins Campground on Tioga-Hammond and Cowanesque Lakes also closed, along with its swim beach and boat ramp. Tompkins has approximately 125 sites.

The NYT ran a story a few days ago about a small Missouri town coming to terms with the arrest and imminent deportation of a long time resident and popular waitress, Carol Hui (gift link). It includes this exchange:

Many are now asking how you can support Carol and also Mr. Trump.

“I voted for Donald Trump, and so did practically everyone here,” said Vanessa Cowart, a friend of Ms. Hui from church. “But no one voted to deport moms. We were all under the impression we were just getting rid of the gangs, the people who came here in droves.”

She paused. “This is Carol.”

The story includes this photo with the caption:

John’s Waffle and Pancake House in Kennett, where Ms. Hui worked, held a “Carol Day” fund-raiser that brought in nearly $20,000. “This lady has the biggest heart in the whole world,” the owner said of Ms. Hui.

In a new column today, Not All Trump Voters ‘Voted For This,’ political analyst G. Ellliott Morris writes:

……according to polls, most Americans do not support deporting people like Carol either. Deporting undocumented immigrants who are parents of U.S. citizens is underwater by 36 percentage points, for example, and by a net-18-point margin adults oppose deporting immigrants who have not committed crimes other than unlawful entry/overstaying their visa/etc. The only super popular component of Trump’s immigration policy is deporting undocumented immigrants who have committed other violent crimes.

He then shares two charts:

This morning Greg Sargent released a telephone interview with Carol Hui for his New Republic podcast. Get to it when you can.

In my presentation last week and in my talk with Ron Brownstein from Saturday I argue that Trump, in his arrogance and fanaticism, has just gone too far; that his agenda is doing and will do too much harm to every day folks, including his own supporters, for this current version of Trump 2.0 to be politically sustainable:

In the discussion (with Ron Brownstein) I raise the question of whether Trump’s understanding of tribe has changed in Trump 2.0, narrowing from his 2024 coalition and white working class base to now just his fellow oligarchs. For the economic strategy he is pursuing - tariffs/big middle and working class tax increase, slower economy, higher prices, higher interest rates, huge tax cuts for the wealthy, weakening of US health care system and causing tens of millions to become uninsured, labor shortages due to mass deportation, gutting of US government, risking fiscal integrity of US - will cause, and is already causing hardship in his white working class base; as it is without question the most anti-worker and anti-working class agenda America has seen in generations.

While Trump is continuing to get “wins,” including this weekend in Poland, there have also been many significant losses and ongoing, inspiring acts of defiance. It’s all a reminder that we are in a struggle, a fight, pushing and pulling, battling it out, every day; and that it my belief, despite his bluster, blather and never ending bullshit that he and his project is far weaker and far more out of position than it feels fight now; and we will only keep getting our wins and keep growing that circle of defiance if we keep working it as hard as we can and stay, forcefully, in the game.

Our big job this month is to continue to attack and degrade the President’s ruinous economic strategy, and fight to get the tariffs rolled back and the reconciliation bill killed. That is Job 1 for us this month. What all this data and these anecdotes tell us is that we have an opportunity. We need to now seize it, together.

Congress Returns This Week, And The Battle Over The Reconciliation Bill Resumes - Punchbowl News has a good overview of where the Senate Rs are as we head into this consequential debate:

Beyond the GOP leadership suite, there are key Republican senators whose names you’ll be hearing a lot of over the next month. Here’s who you need to know.

The budget hawks. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) has been bashing the House-passed reconciliation bill. Johnson has said it doesn’t go far enough to slash federal spending, despite over $1.5 trillion in cuts. Moderates in both chambers will have big problems with deeper cuts.

Johnson isn’t alone among Republicans who want to slash more in federal spending. There’s also Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.). But Johnson is in his own category here, claiming he doesn’t care about political pressures from Trump.

The spending-cut skeptics. This is the counterpunch to budget hawks’ demands. Just like in the House, the Senate has members wary of cutting safety-net programs like Medicaid and SNAP.

Keep an eye on Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who has expressed concern about Medicaid changes. Collins is up for reelection in 2026. Democrats will hammer the GOP over Medicaid cuts on the campaign trail, so Collins will have to tread especially carefully.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) is another one to watch. Hawley has been loudly opposed to Medicaid benefit cuts.

The clean-energy crew. The House-passed bill claws back more than $550 billion of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act.

Four Senate Republicans publicly oppose a total repeal of the credits. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska), Thom Tillis (N.C.), John Curtis (Utah) and Jerry Moran (Kan.) sent a letter asking for a “targeted, pragmatic approach” to IRA cuts. Tillis is up in 2026, too.

This group could try to tweak the clawbacks in the House GOP’s bill, though that’ll cause friction with hardline conservatives.

The committee chairs. There are 10 Senate committees with reconciliation instructions. One in particular has perhaps the best and worst job in Washington right now.

The Senate Finance Committee has jurisdiction over taxes, the debt limit and Medicaid. That makes Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) critical for where Republicans land on trillions of dollars in tax cuts and reductions to Medicaid spending.

The broker. The House’s thin majority is a problem for the Senate too. Keep an eye on Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former House member.

Mullin often acts as an informal liaison with House Republicans. He’s also an ally of House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.).

A Dem Senate aligned group launched a reconciliation-themed ad in Alaska yesterday targeting up in 2026 Senator Dan Sullivan. Expect to see more of these kind of ads in the days ahead:

Now, Let’s Get To Work - In last Saturday’s post I offered up some initial ideas of what our summer was going to look like. Please check it out if you haven’t gotten to it yet.

Job 1 for us this summer is fighting Trump’s ruinous economic agenda. We need to keep calling every day and demand our leaders vote down the reconciliation bill and roll back Trump’s terrible tariffs. This is the big, definitional battle of the summer and we need keep working it every day. Those of you in states with Republican Senators have a particularly important role to play.

I know many of you are involved in the June 14th No Kings events, town halls, Telsa take downs and all the other in person activities that have taken off of late. Thank you, and do keep working it everyone. I am still encouraging our community to explore ideas for how we can Own The Fourth and make our Independence Day an ugly day for our mad wannabe king. Hopium Merch is coming soon, and be sure to check our robust Events schedule as new events are being added daily.

There are three additional efforts we’re working on now:

1 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Simply, the Virginia elections are the most important elections we have this year, and we must win them. We have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers and while our candidate Abigail Spanberger has a modest lead in current polling, this is going to be a close election where our money and volunteer time can make a real difference. If you are to give to only one candidate or election this year it should be this one. Here’s a link to do so today……

To learn more about Abigail check out my new discussion with her, watch her new TV ad, or head over to her campaign website We have now raised over $116,000 towards our June 30th goal of $200,000 - thank you all! We need to keep working it everyone!

2 - Support The Hopium House 7 - We’ve begun our work to help flip the House next year by supporting and shoring up the 7 newly-elected battleground House Dems we helped elect last year. Catch our interviews with Reps Derek Tran, Janelle Bynum, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen and give to all 7 through a single donation on our ActBlue page. Learn more about this important effort here.

We’ve already raised over $114,000 towards our $200,000 June 30th goal - great work everyone!

We also have ongoing campaigns to raise money for the new DNC, support the North Carolina Democratic Party and thank Senator Cory Booker for his spirited leadership in a time of enormous challenge.

3 - Growing Hopium - We’ve set a goal of trying to grow the Hopium community from the 151,000 we are now to 175,000 by Labor Day. Do what you can to encourage your friends, family and colleagues to become a summer subscriber to Hopium, free or paid. To encourage the growth of our community annual paid subscriptions are 10% off through Labor Day too!

Keep working hard all. We are making progress but oh boy do we have a lot of work ahead of us - Simon