Fighting Trump's Ruinous Economic Agenda, The New American Barbarism, Anderson Clayton Joins Us Friday

Hopium Paid Subscribers Gather Tonight at 8pm ET, Founding Members Friday at 1pm

Morning all. The big, ugly, awful, terrible reconciliation bill is winding its way through the House. Will it pass? We will know soon, and while it is likely to pass as we go to press this morning Speaker Johnson appears to be struggling to keep his conference together. Here’s a late-breaking report from Politico:

House Speaker Mike Johnson is facing a last-minute rebellion from conservatives on Republicans’ megabill, with a deal on a key tax deduction with blue-state Republicans and a lack of progress on settling other key provisions frustrating hard-liners.

“I think actually we’re further away from a deal because that SALT cap increase, I think, upset a lot of conservatives,” Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the House Freedom Caucus chair, said in an interview on Newsmax on Wednesday morning, referring to the state-and-local-tax deduction. “The conservatives are pushing for some balancing spending reductions.”

Johnson signaled Tuesday he wanted to call a vote on the bill as soon as Wednesday evening. A person with direct knowledge of the talks who was granted anonymity to describe them candidly said “there is currently a zero percent chance this thing moves today,” saying leaders “walked away from a deal last night and even rolled back progress made over the weekend.”

In a brief interview Wednesday morning, Johnson said “there is a chance for a vote today” when asked about the comments by Harris and other conservatives. He said he continues to talk with the conservative holdouts.

Johnson faces a lose-lose here. If the bill fails this week they and Trump look weak, disorganized, incompetent (accurate). If it passes, and some version is likely to pass the House either this week or in the coming weeks, they will have to defend an indefensible and deeply unpopular set of policy choices over the next 18 months.

The likely scenario for our Hopium community is the core economic approach of Trump and the Rs - tariffs + reconciliation/more for me, less for you (more here) - will be getting debated in Congress for most of the rest of the summer as this bill winds its way through Congress. It’s why even if this bill passes this week the debate will be still be with us, and all of your work was just prepping for the next phase of the debate where we will 1) work to defeat the bill again 2) use this debate to further define the Rs as reckless, greed-filled plutocrats f-ing over the country and the American people.

The time we are spending now learning about their approach, understanding how to articulate our opposition and condemn it, the calls and contacts we are making all matter, even if this bill ends up passing later this summer and signed into law. For running against this ruinous economic approach - one that credit agencies, global markets, the Fed and just about everyone else who understands is condemning and warning about - is likely to be the centerpiece of every Democratic campaign at every level of government through the election next year. As I wrote yesterday:

The simple reality the Rs face now is that Trump’s terrible tariffs have weakened the economy to the point where something like the reconciliation bill with its huge explosion of debt just isn’t possible any more. Passing this bill given current economic conditions would be reckless and dangerous, which is why Moody’s and the markets - and folks like Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon - are sounding the alarm.

It’s why here at Hopium we don’t talk about the tariffs or the reconciliation bill in isolation. It is what they will do together that has the markets so spooked; and why what we are fighting for here is both the killing of the reconciliation bill and the rolling back of the tariffs. They are, on their own, destructive economic policies. Together they are ruinous for America and the American people.

Let’s be clear about the judgement of the American people so far. In the influential University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey we are seeing some of the lowest readings since the survey began in the 1960s.

Here’s the latest Economist/YouGov weekly tracking data out fresh this morning with changes from Trump’s first week in office:

• Overall 43%-51% (-8) - down 14 points from Trump’s first week

• 18-29 35%-51% (-16) - down 21 points

• Hisp 32%-62% (-30) - down 25 points

• Indies 29%-54% (-25) - down 22 points

• Makes < $50k - 40%-52% (-12) - down 16 points

• Makes $50-100K - 46%-49% (-3) - down 10 points

• Inflation/Prices - 39%-54% (-15) - ugly

We must keep the pressure on. Even if you have been calling please contact your Senators and Reps today. Those of you with a Republican Rep and Senators have a particularly important role to play today. Call, email, visit however you reach your Reps do it now and plan on doing it every day this week.

Here’s our working script. Use whatever works for you:

I am calling to urge you to vote against the reconciliation bill and to roll back Trump’s terrible and illegal tariffs. Together these actions have raised taxes on all of us and will explode the deficit - things Republicans have always told us they did not believe in.

But your agenda is also causing all of us to “pay more and get less” for every day things including our health care; people to loses their jobs; and the economy to slow - all so you can give your rich donors a huge tax break. Your plans will weaken this great country and are an extraordinary betrayal of everything you promised during the campaign - which was to help people like me, not Elon Musk, get ahead.

Your plans are ones of sabotage, surrender and betrayal and I urge you to abandon them and to work with Democrats to find a better way.

Please self-report on your actions today. I know folks have been working hard and these reports of our gritty fight helps lift all of us up every day.

Here’s more background:

• Slower Growth, Higher Prices, A Huge Tax Hike, Explosive Deficits, Credit Downgrades - my latest take on Trump’s ruinous economic agenda

• My interview with Dr. Rob Shapiro, and his new Washington Monthly article, Trump’s Perfect Storm That Could Sink The American Economy

• A great primer on why the reconciliation bill is so terrible from Rep. Tom Suozzi

If all goes as planned, I’ll be interviewing Rep. Haley Stevens today for a fresh report from the front lines of this critical battle and releasing our discussion later this afternoon.

Keep working it peeps!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Events This Week - got a few good ones on tap this week:

• Wed, 8pm ET - Hopium Paid Subscriber Get Together. Note this week’s time. Register here.

• Thur, 455pm ET - I sit down with the great Brian Tyler Cohen for a livestreamed discussion for Field Team 6’s “Register Democrats Summit.” Learn more, register here.

• Fri, 1215pm ET - North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton joins us for a live discussion. Our good friend will be reviewing the big wins NC Dems have had at the ballot box and in the courts in recent months, and offer an early look at 2026 in one of our most important battleground states. Excited to welcome Anderson back this Friday! Click on this link at 12:15pm to join the live conversation.

A reminder that an annual Hopium paid subscription is 10% off through the end of May. While Trump is raising prices on things, here at Hopium we are lowering them! The discount is good for gift and groups subscriptions too.

The New Barbarism - As we discussed yesterday the barbaric lengths this Very White House is going to expel, punish and even kill non-whites shocks the conscience. It feels like a form of madness, a tribal/racial frenzy that we know from other nations can turn into something truly horrific. That this has begun happening here, in a nation founded on reconciling differences - e pluribus unum, “from many one” - makes all of this even more breathtaking.

This morning we are getting new reports of new flights with migrants heading to South Sudan, a war zone, violating a court order that had been in place. As this is a developing story I won’t go into detail today but it is something we have to watch. I repost something from yesterday that I cannot stop thinking about, for it shows how far over the moral line this Administration has crossed:

the proposal developed under President Donald Trump is unusual because it includes people who escaped from some of the most dangerous parts of the world and appears intended to bypass the International Organization for Migration (IOM), a U.N.-affiliated body that typically aids in returning migrants to their homes….

In addition to Ukrainians and Haitians, the draft documents also mention Afghans, Palestinians, Libyans, Sudanese, Syrians and Yemenis, saying they, too, could be targeted as part of the voluntary deportation program. The U.N.-affiliated migration office does not support the return of people to any of those places, the draft documents say.

Turning off USAID programs that we know will kill millions and millions of children was a first step. Sending legal residents of the US without criminal records to a Salvadoran gulag was the next. Forcing legal migrants here in the US back to places the UN will not work to repatriate people too - failed governments, active war zones - is the next step in Trump’s new barbarism.

Let’s Get To Work!!!! - Some helpful advice from Hopium community member Steve:

Hi all, reporting on my efforts AND engaging in an effort by posting here.

I recently attended an online Network Strategy Training session that was put on by the DNC. We talked a lot about leveraging social media, personal networks, and word-of-mouth to build support for our opposition. The strategies are all in line with the thoughts and daily encouragement we get from Simon and the great guests he brings in.

Everyone in the Hopium community should get in on the effort.

To Join: Text TRAIN to 43367

There's a Discord server that's been set up to help talk and coordinate amongst volunteers. You can get invited to the channel if you do the training.

Long story short, we talked about big items that we all can do NOW to help:

- Call your R rep / senator to tell them to vote NO on the reconciliation bill, if you have one. (Yes, I know Simon tells us this daily anyway, but I thought I'd reiterate it.)

- If you DON'T have a R rep / senator (like me), reach out to friends and family you do know who live in a R-represented district or state. Ask them to call / email their representative / senator to oppose the reconciliation bill. Share a personally story of the impact; whatever you think will resonate.

- Engage with your R rep / senator on social media. Comment on their posts and tell them why you oppose the bill. Call them out for their BS if they support it.

- Like / support / repost content you see that calls out the harms being done by this administration. This feeds the algorithm and spreads the word. The right has known this for years, and now it's our turn to fight back and take control of the online narrative.

From this millennial who dumped Facebook and Twitter years ago, I'm doing my part to engage more in social media and in my word-of-mouth networks. You can do it too.

My report: I have friends with family in MI-7, Tom Barrett's district. I told them to tell their families to call Tom Barrett, telling him to vote NO on the reconciliation bill and reasons why. I got commitments from my friends that they would do that, and was told their family members are fully engaged in the movement again. Remember, every call helps.

If it's not out-of-line, I'd appreciate Simon giving a shout-out to the DNC text number above to get more people involved with the effort. The Discord network could use some new friends. :)

Thanks, all!

In addition to making our calls and contacting these offices, we have two more projects I hope you will consider supporting:

1 - Help Abigail Spanberger Win Virginia - Simply, the Virginia elections are the most important elections we have this year, and we must win them. We have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers and while our candidate Abigail Spanberger has a modest lead in current polling, this is going to be a close election where our money and volunteer time can make a real difference. If you are to give to only one candidate or election this year it should be this one. Here’s a link to do so today……

To learn more about Abigail check out my new discussion with her, released yesterday. We have now raised over $106,000 towards our June 30th goal of $200,000 - thank you all. If you want to volunteer for her race head over to her campaign website today. We can do this people!

2 - Support The Hopium House 7 - We’ve begun our work to help flip the House next year by supporting and shoring up the 7 newly-elected battleground House Dems we helped elect last year. Catch our interviews with Reps Derek Tran, Janelle Bynum, Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen and give to all 7 through a single donation on our ActBlue page. Learn more about this important effort here.

We’ve already raised over $84,000 towards our $200,000 June 30th goal - thank you all!

And yes, on this day of all days, we end with one of my favorite passages from Jefferson:

Friends, this is a big week and we need to leave it all out there on the playing field, together - Simon